No Wave posted:

No Wave posted:

Jon Joe posted:

Pre-pricing Drow Ranger:

I was watching some streams yesterday and a topic I saw come up several times was "What do you think cards will cost on the secondary market?" I think people are just pulling numbers out of their asses, so I want to give a crack at this with only slightly less rear end-pullery.

I'm picking Drow because I expect her to be the most sought-after rare hero, especially at launch.

There are 12 cards per pack. There is exactly 1 hero per pack. There is 1 garaunteed rare per pack.

I now need to make a few assumptions:

• The chance of any given card being the rare in the pack is equal, e.g. Valve haven't made it such that there's 30% the hero is rare and 70% another card is rare. Based on what I've watched of people opening packs, the equal chance theory appears correct, but there's no way to tell for sure without a look at the code. This would mean that when you open a pack, there is a 1 out of 12 chance your garaunteed rare is a hero.
  
• The chance of 'ranking up' a card is negligable per pack. As anyone who's watched pack openings knows, there's some chance that when you open a pack, some of the card will automatically upgrade in rarity. This of course increases the chance you get a rare hero, but by how much I cannot say without, again, looking at the code. Even if this is a negligable chance per pack (which is what it looks like), over many packs this can have a signifigant effect on further calculations. Because I do not have an exact number I will be excluding this chance from estimates, but know that whatever number I come up with at the end will be inflated due to this.
  
• Pack card generation is seperate from all previous and future packs generated; independent chances each time you crack a new one.
  
• If your pack contains a rare hero, each rare hero is equally likely to show up. There are 12 rare heroes in the game, and one drow ranger, making it a 1 out of 12 chance that if your garaunteed rare is a hero, that hero is Drow Ranger.
  
• More people will want a Drow than there are Drows avaliable to sell at launch, and this state will continue for at least a few weeks.
  

Okay so we have a 1/12 * 1/12 chance in a single pack to open a Drow under these conditions, or a 1/144 chance. To put it another way, there is a 143/144 chance you do not open a Drow when you open a pack. If you open 100 packs, there is a 49.81% chance you do not open a drow ranger, and a 50.19% chance you do, which is exactly how many packs you need to open to have an above 50% chance to open drow. To progress to a 95% chance to open drow, it would take 430 packs. Each pack costs $2, so a 50% chance at drow costs $200, and a 95% chance at drow costs $860. Other cards in the packs can likely be sold for money too, subsidising things, but by how much I cannot say. For as long as Drow's demand is greater than the number of all Drows avaliable, I'd probably expect her price to hover around the 50% chance to open price, or $200. As mentioned earlier, this will be adjusted downward by some unknown amount based on cards ranking up, so I'd estimate a price range anywhere between $150 to $200 for drow in the first month.

edit: I should clarify the chances are to get at least 1 Drow; I could instead calculate how many drows you'd get on average from 100 packs and so on, but I think 50% chance of getting at least one is a good benchmark.

No Wave posted:

I certainly wasn't expecting that all the people who said they enjoyed the game would give it up in a month. I'm used to people pretending that they enjoy exercise and eating healthily, not as used to it with video card games.

The REAL Goobusters posted:

I basically stopped playing once my group of friends stopped

No Wave posted:

I certainly wasn't expecting that all the people who said they enjoyed the game would give it up in a month. I'm used to people pretending that they enjoy exercise and eating healthily, not as used to it with video card games.

Thirsty Dog posted:

I legit enjoyed it but they needed to release a new set of cards fairly early on given the limitations on deck building and the balance issues. Draft and constructed got stale pretty quickly with the existing card pool.

Triple the number of cards available and I'd probably play it again assuming enough players to make draft fun

Stan Taylor posted:

If they just put it out on the same model as HS or MTGA it would be fine. The economy is the sole reason the game died.

They could have done the DotA model and given all playable cards out free and sold cosmetics and they'd be fine.

They blew it.

Stan Taylor posted:

If they just put it out on the same model as HS or MTGA it would be fine. The economy is the sole reason the game died.

They could have done the DotA model and given all playable cards out free and sold cosmetics and they'd be fine.

They blew it.

No Wave posted:

If someone bought you all the cards, would you enjoy playing the game?

No Wave posted:

If someone bought you all the cards, would you enjoy playing the game?

Thom and the Heads posted:

who won the goon tournament?


some say that tournament is still being played to this day

No Wave posted:

Thing is we don't really know if the awful card design is a function of bad mechanics or not. If Axe Duel needs to be in the game for whatever reason, it implies the game's fundamentals are flawed.

People also hate arrows a lot, they hate the flop a lot, they hate the late game cards a lot, there's barely anything distinctive left, just the passing back and forth of initiative (which itself is only important because of cards everyone hates like duel, gust, and annihilation).

But maybe a miracle can happen. That would be impressive!

SSJ_naruto_2003 posted:

No one, because goobusters refused to boot the people who had quit the game!

CodfishCartographer posted:

I think the game would have had a much better chance if everyone had all the cards, but yeah Valve needed to be quicker on the draw with adding in more interesting new cards.

nearly killed em! posted:

We know the business model isn't the issue with Artifact, a ton of people bought the game knowing full well what it was. What we also know is that those same people stopped playing incredibly quick because they just don't like playing it. Game loving sucks

The Moon Monster posted:

I dunno, collecting the cards is a big part of the appeal of these games for a lot of people.

Normal Adult Human posted:

I actually hosted and completed a tournament. I dont remember who won. Everyone pleas respect me.

Pigbuster posted:

I don’t get why they don’t just tease a single spoiler. They gotta have something in the pipe.