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Taintrunner
Apr 10, 2017

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

retirement is going the way of the pension lol

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Yoshi Wins
Jul 14, 2013

Goon Danton posted:

Financialization means more and more money looking for investments, and more demand means prices go up. Since bonds are sold as "pay X now for $1000 (or however much) later," X going up means the yield goes down.

I see. So the fact that the stock market has trended strongly upward during the same time is related. It's what we would expect to see, as financialization is also driving up the price of stocks. Right?

Knight
Dec 23, 2000

SPACE-A-HOLIC
Taco Defender

Finicums Wake posted:

it's extremely unevenly distributed, was my point

edit: also it's insane, to me, that the estate tax doesn't ramp up to 100%. this is a good thing to bring up any time a conservative tells you they support EqUaLiTy Of OpPoRtUnItY
That's an interesting point, because the rich live longer than their poorer counterparts. The boomers that control that wealth may not die that quickly, they might even live another 20-40 years.

Also I flat out had conservatives tell me I was twisted and insane for framing inheritance as an unearned handout in direct opposition to equal opportunity. It wasn't like "gently caress you how dare you," they were genuinely confused how you start with the same premise that receiving money you didn't earn is bad and come to the conclusion that large inheritances was bad.

Knight fucked around with this message at 14:49 on Mar 29, 2019

Tiberius Christ
Mar 4, 2009

the boomer bloodsucking vampires will live forever by literally drinking their children's blood

punished milkman
Dec 5, 2018

would have won
lyft makes its way to the stock market today at 10:30AM. real curious to see how that turns out

EugeneJ
Feb 5, 2012

by FactsAreUseless

punished milkman posted:

lyft makes its way to the stock market today at 10:30AM. real curious to see how that turns out

I wonder how many Uber drivers who are only sticking around because STOCK OPTIONS will quit if the Lyft trial balloon sinks like a rock

THE BIG DOG DADDY
Oct 16, 2013

Rasheed was, with Aliases, the top 7 PvPers in Bone Krew.


No one talks about this.

EugeneJ posted:

I wonder how many Uber drivers who are only sticking around because STOCK OPTIONS will quit if the Lyft trial balloon sinks like a rock

yeah I'm sure stock retention is the motivating factor for people driving for Uber

Acelerion
May 3, 2005

gradenko_2000 posted:

I saw a talk from Yanis Varoufakis where he said about the same thing:

if the weatherman says it's going to rain tomorrow, whether they're right or wrong, informed or uninformed, has no bearing on the actual outcome of the weather, but if an economist says we're heading for a recession tomorrow, simply saying that we will is going to influence the behavior of the economy, because the economy is run by people, and they can and will react to what the economist said

Way back in the day there was a guy that used to post in d&d who was in finance.

His would fervently argue that commodity derivatives, oil in this case, had no impact on the price of the underlying commodities using as an example how making bets on whether it will rain has no impact on the actual outcome.

I will reiterate he did this for a living

Karl Barks
Jan 21, 1981

Acelerion posted:

Way back in the day there was a guy that used to post in d&d who was in finance.

His would fervently argue that commodity derivatives, oil in this case, had no impact on the price of the underlying commodities using as an example how making bets on whether it will rain has no impact on the actual outcome.

I will reiterate he did this for a living

Haha I remember this guy, and I wasn't learned enough at the time to know any better, sounds so ridiculous now.

comedyblissoption
Mar 15, 2006

if there was a wall street market on whether or not it would rain, people would start dumping rain-making particulates into the air

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN

Yoshi Wins posted:

I see. So the fact that the stock market has trended strongly upward during the same time is related. It's what we would expect to see, as financialization is also driving up the price of stocks. Right?

It's a function of interest rates. Interest rates are really low ROI on a bond is going to be really low. Low interest rate means the cost of borrowing is low so you can go gamble it away on potential huge returns vs letting it sit and accumulate a little bit at a time. The base price of a bond also changes as interest rates increase/decrease. I think the price of a bond falls as the interest rate increases since that makes your bond less valuable because a new bond would be more likely to net you a slightly higher return.

Edit: So if interest rates are high....like they were in the 80s....the demand for bonds is going to very high since the return is already baked into the bond. Unlike a stock when you buy a bond (outside of bankruptcy since bonds are honored before stocks and various other things) most of the risk/return is right in front of you.

rex rabidorum vires fucked around with this message at 16:09 on Mar 29, 2019

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy

comedyblissoption posted:

if there was a wall street market on whether or not it would rain, people would start dumping rain-making particulates into the air

so what you're saying is we need to financialize climate change futures

Karl Barks
Jan 21, 1981

gradenko_2000 posted:

so what you're saying is we need to financialize climate change futures

Carbon tax credits aren't far off from this already

H.P. Hovercraft
Jan 12, 2004

one thing a computer can do that most humans can't is be sealed up in a cardboard box and sit in a warehouse
Slippery Tilde

i plan on dying at my desk after pulling back to like 20 hour weeks sometime in my 60s

it just doesn't make good financial sense to quit working during my most valuable per-hour labor years as a white collar worker

mycomancy
Oct 16, 2016

H.P. Hovercraft posted:

i plan on dying at my desk after pulling back to like 20 hour weeks sometime in my 60s

it just doesn't make good financial sense to quit working during my most valuable per-hour labor years as a white collar worker

I'll probably die like I lived: at the bench in my lab.

H.P. Hovercraft
Jan 12, 2004

one thing a computer can do that most humans can't is be sealed up in a cardboard box and sit in a warehouse
Slippery Tilde

Tiberius Christ posted:

the boomer bloodsucking vampires will live forever by literally drinking their children's blood

it's actually worse than that - more recent research has indicated that simply getting transfusions of younger blood doesn't really do anything

what you actually need to do is be hooked up to the circulatory system of a younger set of organs for some time, the transfusions were just a weak attempt at imitating parabiosis

SKULL.GIF
Jan 20, 2017


punished milkman posted:

lyft makes its way to the stock market today at 10:30AM. real curious to see how that turns out

lyft at fuckign $85 a share lmfao

Gazpacho
Jun 18, 2004

by Fluffdaddy
Slippery Tilde

Kobayashi posted:

Jist got two push notifications that the CEO of Wells Fargo is out and the #2 at Morgan Stanley is out. Seems normal.
the wells fargo guy is a notorious crook and the morgan stanley guy is 61 years old with money. yeah it's normal.

cool dance moves
Aug 27, 2018


SKULL.GIF posted:

lyft at fuckign $85 a share lmfao

Goon project let's buy the majority of Lyft shares and then gently caress around w it

Xaris
Jul 25, 2006

Lucky there's a family guy
Lucky there's a man who positively can do
All the things that make us
Laugh and cry

H.P. Hovercraft posted:

i plan on dying at my desk after pulling back to like 20 hour weeks sometime in my 60s

it just doesn't make good financial sense to quit working during my most valuable per-hour labor years as a white collar worker
ya same, assuming i dont die fighting nazis instead

my boss is like 70-something and probably never going to retire. also work with a lot of consultants in their 70s+ that just do some independent work whenever.

~~~experience~~~~

Skyl3lazer
Aug 27, 2007

[Dooting Stealthily]



SKULL.GIF posted:

lyft at fuckign $85 a share lmfao

I mean it's dropping fast as bag holders want to not be bag holders

Karl Barks
Jan 21, 1981

great! pops 20%, now all the VC money can exit with a great big profit and leave the retail investors with the bag. another win for capitalism!

Xaris
Jul 25, 2006

Lucky there's a family guy
Lucky there's a man who positively can do
All the things that make us
Laugh and cry

SKULL.GIF posted:

lyft at fuckign $85 a share lmfao

ive dabbled in short-term robinhood before, and these ipos generally seem to follow a same trend: for about a week they rocket a bit up from IPO price because FOMO and everyone else thinking they're getting on this great new momentum, then around 5days later it starts falling because buyers remorse and ohgod this company is actually bad and panic sets in and it drops below ipo and just sits there very slowly declining forever awaiting The Big Crash. if you wanted to make an easy hundo bucks to a grand, momentum trading out the gate can give you a cool 10% roi in a few days, though youd have to pay short-term cap gains.

Karl Barks
Jan 21, 1981

btw it's written into these IPOs that the VCs

1. get to sell their shares first.
2. have a literal guaranteed return in the contracts
3. employees and founders are in a lock out period where they can't sell their stock
4. employees are barred from buying options on the stock to hedge (even if you know the company is a house of cards)

Ruzihm
Aug 11, 2010

Group up and push mid, proletariat!


Xaris posted:

ive dabbled in short-term robinhood before, and these ipos generally seem to follow a same trend: for about a week they rocket a bit up from IPO price because FOMO and everyone else thinking they're getting on this great new momentum, then around 5days later it starts falling because buyers remorse and ohgod this company is actually bad and panic sets in and it drops below ipo and just sits there very slowly declining forever awaiting The Big Crash. if you wanted to make an easy hundo bucks to a grand, momentum trading out the gate can give you a cool 10% roi in a few days, though youd have to pay short-term cap gains.

this is what people mean when they say buy the rumor sell the news

punished milkman
Dec 5, 2018

would have won

SKULL.GIF posted:

lyft at fuckign $85 a share lmfao

Lol it's been steadily declining since

Truga
May 4, 2014
Lipstick Apathy

Jel Shaker posted:

lol, why would anyone buy a Boeing plane ever again

too big to fail? more like too big to bail

PIZZA.BAT
Nov 12, 2016


:cheers:


Xaris posted:

ive dabbled in short-term robinhood before, and these ipos generally seem to follow a same trend: for about a week they rocket a bit up from IPO price because FOMO and everyone else thinking they're getting on this great new momentum, then around 5days later it starts falling because buyers remorse and ohgod this company is actually bad and panic sets in and it drops below ipo and just sits there very slowly declining forever awaiting The Big Crash. if you wanted to make an easy hundo bucks to a grand, momentum trading out the gate can give you a cool 10% roi in a few days, though youd have to pay short-term cap gains.

yeah it’s important to know when the lockout dates for employees expire because that’s usually your first big dip

mila kunis
Jun 10, 2011

Karl Barks posted:

great! pops 20%, now all the VC money can exit with a great big profit and leave the retail investors with the bag. another win for capitalism!

I wanna see who's left holding the bag and how many of em are like government entities

Gazpacho
Jun 18, 2004

by Fluffdaddy
Slippery Tilde
coinciding with these IPOs there's a big ad push in downtown SF from a company that wants to buy shares off private startup employees and roll them into an investment fund aimed at public (not HNW) investors. I find it a bit suspicious with regard to securities laws but maybe I just don't have the right disruptor mindset.

Shear Modulus
Jun 9, 2010



Karl Barks posted:

btw it's written into these IPOs that the VCs

1. get to sell their shares first.
2. have a literal guaranteed return in the contracts
3. employees and founders are in a lock out period where they can't sell their stock
4. employees are barred from buying options on the stock to hedge (even if you know the company is a house of cards)

yeah the IPOs are the current owners of the company (in this case the VCs and other early investors) or the company itself putting shares in escrow with whatever investment bank is managing the IPO then the investment bank sells those shares at a set price to other investors. if they dont line up buyers for every share they are usually on the hook.

the shares that are sold at $72 or whatever the "IPO Price" was were almost certainly all already spoken for before today. the price shoots up because people who werent connected enough to get in on the $72 price still want it and buy them on the market.

one fun part is that the bank has an incentive to undervalue the stock so that the company receives $72 minus commissions per share and their own customers who get first access to the shares get to immediately sell them for a profit. basically taking money from the company and giving it to their own buddies who hold on to the shares for less than a day lol

mila kunis
Jun 10, 2011
seriously whos buying this stuff and why. lyft is a sinkhole of massive losses and they will never turn it around, what the gently caress

Xaris
Jul 25, 2006

Lucky there's a family guy
Lucky there's a man who positively can do
All the things that make us
Laugh and cry

Rex-Goliath posted:

yeah it’s important to know when the lockout dates for employees expire because that’s usually your first big dip

yeah definitely. usually 180-days but sometimes can be longer.

Xaris
Jul 25, 2006

Lucky there's a family guy
Lucky there's a man who positively can do
All the things that make us
Laugh and cry

mila kunis posted:

seriously whos buying this stuff and why. lyft is a sinkhole of massive losses and they will never turn it around, what the gently caress
it latestage capitalism my dude and institutions have no real way to keep pumping wealth and getting massive returns and just have to make dumb gambits on tech and VC and stock n housing speculation.

it doesn't matter it's a sinkhole. tesla is a flaming dumpster fire and people love it. same for twitter et al. what matters is the perception that people have and most people think tesla and lyft and uber are some great thing. and then you can get into perception of perception of ad nausea.

also stocks have no realworld bearing on company performance or economy, which we all know but bears repeating because just because a company sucks rear end doesn't matter.

and remember, lots of rich elite hold keys to pension and retirement funds so even if it's a massive toxic asset, they can still get out with da profits and throw it on the backs of CalPers and poo poo when economy tanks.

Karl Barks
Jan 21, 1981

we regret to inform you that the aglorithms already bought up all the options for the lock out date

got any sevens
Feb 9, 2013

by Cyrano4747

Azuth0667 posted:

Aren't those the planes that don't work unless you buy the DLC?

its all horse armor's fault

Jel Shaker
Apr 19, 2003

comedyblissoption posted:

if there was a wall street market on whether or not it would rain, people would start dumping rain-making particulates into the air

I might be confusing myself but I remember a doomsday story which predicted that banks found that they could shoot high powered lasers around the globe to “beat” the market by milliseconds , except the lasers heated up the atmosphere until everything was on fire/dead

Shear Modulus
Jun 9, 2010



Jel Shaker posted:

I might be confusing myself but I remember a doomsday story which predicted that banks found that they could shoot high powered lasers around the globe to “beat” the market by milliseconds , except the lasers heated up the atmosphere until everything was on fire/dead

financial firms have already been using private microwave radio transmission relays for years lol. meaning they already hit the speed of light in air moving in a relatively straight line.

a laser signal would have a higher bandwidth though

https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2016/11/private-microwave-networks-financial-hft/

Shear Modulus fucked around with this message at 19:07 on Mar 29, 2019

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



Shear Modulus posted:

financial firms have already been using private microwave radio transmission relays for years lol. meaning they already hit the speed of light in air moving in a relatively straight line.

a laser signal would have a higher bandwidth though

https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2016/11/private-microwave-networks-financial-hft/

good news: we've perfected using quantum entanglement to transmit messages faster than light

bad news: only works with stocks

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Karl Barks
Jan 21, 1981

Epic High Five posted:

good news: we've perfected using quantum entanglement to transmit messages faster than light

bad news: only works with stocks

back to the future, but he just uses it to make better stock trades

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