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The Bloop
Jul 5, 2004

by Fluffdaddy

Failson posted:

I think I figured out why I'm okay with this season, despite it being mediocre - No one is irritating enough that I want to quit watching. Keith might have gotten there, but he left on his own! Bye Keith!

The "Tim Tebow pretends to be excited" show was very, very boring.

Agree on both counts. I'm willing to give Survivor a lot of rope to try new things now and again (or remix old things) and the tebow show is easily the worst athletic competition show that I am aware of.

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Zesty
Jan 17, 2012

The Great Twist
I think it's better to vote out Joe now rather than later. If he sticks around, he's getting rewards and social interaction to keep him strong and happy(?). If you send him to extinction island, he's starving and with a bunch of pissed off people that want to get back into the game just as bad.

If you assume he's going to beat all the extinction players no matter what, then you're assuming he's making it to the end anyway and there's no reason to give him food rewards before the F5/F4 challenge so MAYBE you can bump him out.

As it is, hopefully he doesn't make it back from extinction. If he does, you can knock him out at F5. If not... well, he's getting through the Fire Challenge one way or another. and then you can argue he had no strategic impact on the game if he makes it to F3.

It's the best choice to gimp him at every opportunity even if he can challenge-beast his way through things. Extinction Island was designed for players like Joe. The Fire challenge was designed for players like Joe. Hurt him at every opportunity to make up for it.

Lone Goat
Apr 16, 2003

When life gives you lemons, suplex those lemons.




The problem is that the jury is going to be full of bitter shitheads that got voted out before the merge even happened, and he'll be out there getting all chummy with them while everyone else has to play the game.

It's definitely correct to boot him ASAP but the rules, as we understand them, are stacked in his favour.

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

There will be more opportunities to vote him out! Why blindside Aurora and vote off one of your own when it's putting you in a potential 6-6 situation... just to prevent Joe from winning a couple reward challenges?? You're more scared of Joe being super strong because he ate some Survivor pizza than you are of losing the numbers and being voted/idoled out?

Vernacular
Nov 29, 2004

xbilkis posted:

At that point, pivoting to "anybody but me" is a perfectly valid strategy, given a dude she just voted out had reentered the game. Rick could have very easily had the same "anybody but me" strategy and swung to Kama to avoid going right back out.

Do you really think Rick and David would have scrambled to save Kelley if the majority approached them right after the merge feast and told them they're safe, but she's the first boot? Given the recent history of the game, I think it's a totally understandable play to assume there's not going to be a straight-up Pagonging and to shift into self-preservation mode if you're in a bad spot at the merge.

Except that the Devins boot was less the result of any sort of animus or irreconcilable differences and was more a situation of like “well, we’ve pagonged everybody we can...somebody from the alliance has to go”. As she often is, Wentworth got paranoid as gently caress that he would be bitter (even though by all appearances he’s a reasonable enough guy, and showed total understanding after his boot), and necessarily forced the Lessus into a totally unnecessary civil war that basically gave the Kama 6 carte blanche to vote out whoever they wanted.

And yeah I do think David and Devins would have been a little more cognizant of other options on the table. David seemed genuinely surprised that Wentworth was that willing to flip.

Whoever said that Wentworth has just been reverting to her old lovely habits was spot on.

Fast Luck posted:

There will be more opportunities to vote him out! Why blindside Aurora and vote off one of your own when it's putting you in a potential 6-6 situation... just to prevent Joe from winning a couple reward challenges?? You're more scared of Joe being super strong because he ate some Survivor pizza than you are of losing the numbers and being voted/idoled out?

You are crazily underestimating the importance of weakening the biggest immunity threat by subjecting him to significantly worse living and eating conditions.

Also, the Kama 6 are waaaay more unified than the other 6. You obviously put your money on them finding numbers from the Lessus + Aurora contingent than the other way around.

Having said all that, taking out Wentworth would've been fine as well. They couldn't really go wrong.

Vernacular fucked around with this message at 02:51 on Mar 29, 2019

SLICK GOKU BABY
Jun 12, 2001

Hey Hey Let's Go! 喧嘩する
大切な物を protect my balls


blue squares posted:

It is pretty funny that instead of partying and making fun videos at Ponderosa you have to lay on a beach for weeks with no food

A fun twist... or budget cut backs :smug:

Bigass Moth
Mar 6, 2004

I joined the #RXT REVOLUTION.
:boom:
he knows...
#WarDogStrong

SLICK GOKU BABY
Jun 12, 2001

Hey Hey Let's Go! 喧嘩する
大切な物を protect my balls


I'm curious if there is an interview yet with Kieth and Wendy? The two castaways that apparently left Extinction Island like a day or two before getting on the jury?

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.

SLICK GOKU BABY posted:

I'm curious if there is an interview yet with Kieth and Wendy? The two castaways that apparently left Extinction Island like a day or two before getting on the jury?

Yeah, multiple sites have done them. Gordon Homes, EW, Hollywood Reporter.

The only notable things to take from them are that they didn't know they passed up a chance on the jury before quitting and uhhh that's really it. Nothing interesting about EoE dynamics other than Reem getting slightly salty against Chris.

Zesty
Jan 17, 2012

The Great Twist

SLICK GOKU BABY posted:

A fun twist... or budget cut backs :smug:

Still have to factor in the cost of camera men and editors at the very least. Not to mention they probably already rented out the whole facility anyway for people quitting from extinction island. They're not saving any money here.

Rick
Feb 23, 2004
When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.

Lone Goat posted:

The problem is that the jury is going to be full of bitter shitheads that got voted out before the merge even happened, and he'll be out there getting all chummy with them while everyone else has to play the game.

It's definitely correct to boot him ASAP but the rules, as we understand them, are stacked in his favour.

You're definitely right that this is kind of stacked towards Joe. But years of Survivor/The Challenge redemption locales have shown me that the favorite actually doesn't come out of them all that often because they always inevitably make the challenge to come back in so complicated that it's almost random. But if he comes out of this then yeah he has a great story to sell a jury full of people he's been bonding with and probably providing for (maybe I'm misremebering but I swore there was fishing gear on Extinction), which doesn't usually matter in the normal game but I could see it swaying people on Extinction.

In a funny way maybe the best way to beat Joe is to use him as a Goat. At least then you have a good argument against him on the jury and he doesn't have as great of a story. But then again he would also probably get some bitter jury votes due to not lying to anyone.

I'm probably overthinking this and in the end it was best to get him out now so he weakens up for the future.

Speaking of The Challenge, they did a really nice twist this year where half the cast was returning players, and the other half was players from European competition reality shows. So there are a lot of new faces to see, but they at least have the mental tools to play and succeed at the game. I'd be interested to see Survivor try something like that.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
...Huh. So apparently Kelley's confessional about how much she hates Rick was heavily edited. That's certainly the editors making storylines up, now.

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

What do y'all think about how Devins played that broken idol thing?

Seems like it worked out ideally for him. He and David both survived and now he has the full idol. However I think clearly the intention was that he'd walk up to someone with the numbers (someone from Kama in this case, probably Julie), show them the thing, and then give them half, and promise them the other half if they keep him around. They definitely would in that case, right?

Vernacular posted:

You are crazily underestimating the importance of weakening the biggest immunity threat by subjecting him to significantly worse living and eating conditions.
They get some rice, just like the full players do. They have some kind of fishing gear and Joe can catch himself some fish and then even do the Survivor MacGyver thing and build himself a palace. I don't think Joe's gonna waste away out there, even if he misses the Survivor pizza etc.

Propaganda Machine
Jan 2, 2005

Truthiness!

Zesty posted:

Still have to factor in the cost of camera men and editors at the very least. Not to mention they probably already rented out the whole facility anyway for people quitting from extinction island. They're not saving any money here.

Sure they are. Not only are they not feeding and boozing the EoE people, it's only even there so casuals can gawk at Aubry and Joe to keep the ratings and ad revenue up. If you think that anything about this show isn't about maximizing profit, you're kidding yourself.

Speaking of, I also watched that horrible fake ninja warrior cash grab of a show! I love the goon ire, but something I've come to realize is that non-goon fans often watch Survivor specifically for the challenges. Strategy is secondary to them. That show is for them, not us.

I lol'ed, though.

The Bloop
Jul 5, 2004

by Fluffdaddy
Yeah EoE has a hawaiian sling at the very least and Joe is going to be just fine there and if those people are all really on the jury, he might just earn all their votes with seafood and mustache rides

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.

Propaganda Machine posted:

Sure they are. Not only are they not feeding and boozing the EoE people, it's only even there so casuals can gawk at Aubry and Joe to keep the ratings and ad revenue up. If you think that anything about this show isn't about maximizing profit, you're kidding yourself.

Speaking of, I also watched that horrible fake ninja warrior cash grab of a show! I love the goon ire, but something I've come to realize is that non-goon fans often watch Survivor specifically for the challenges. Strategy is secondary to them. That show is for them, not us.

I lol'ed, though.

If you have to rely on returning players to keep your ratings up, that probably says more about the rest of the cast.

Also, having to devote manpower to film, and then edit down all the footage on EoE isn't exactly cheap. That's a lot of extra energy and time invested into something that you're only gonna get a few minutes of each episode (which is already very strained on time).

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

Casual fans love Joe, Jeff loves Joe, guys like Joe are why Jeff created the Fire 4 previously, guys like Joe are why they're doing Extinction Island this time, it's all about keeping the island boy archetype that casuals and Jeff love in the game and giving them a chance to win. Thankfully I expect Extinction is just a one-time thing because they're permanently in Fiji so they're playing with lots of different themes and gimmicks to differentiate the seasons.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Fast Luck posted:

What do y'all think about how Devins played that broken idol thing?

Seems like it worked out ideally for him. He and David both survived and now he has the full idol. However I think clearly the intention was that he'd walk up to someone with the numbers (someone from Kama in this case, probably Julie), show them the thing, and then give them half, and promise them the other half if they keep him around. They definitely would in that case, right?

It's a huge gamble. If Rick had gone to one of the Kama they easily could have ratted him out and said "we have to get him out before he gets an idol". Or if he had gone to Wentworth or Co they could have sold him out to buy themselves a week as they were trying. Obviously it's totally possible that a player like Victoria might take the deal and see Rick as a worthwhile long term ally or the idol as a good tool. But Rick has never even met these players so he'd just be making a random choice and gambling his whole game.

So yeah, Iagree production hoped he'd do more with it and form some fun secret alliance. But I can't blame him for finding the one person on the island he knows actually trusts him and just trying to get the idol in play.

ApplesandOranges posted:

...Huh. So apparently Kelley's confessional about how much she hates Rick was heavily edited. That's certainly the editors making storylines up, now.

I don't even think that's the same interview their aired? Wentworth says Rick was the last person she wanted to win and that isn't in there. Either way I did hear her say anything that counters that and her actions certainly reinforced the idea that she saw Devin's as an enemy and not an ally. That's why we're all confused.

If Editors made anything up I imagine it would go back go Rick's eviction when they presented it as such a sad event all of Lesu were heartbroken about. Maybe there was more bitterness or game there they didn't show us that would explain why Wentworth thought she couldn't clean up that eviction. But I didn't see anything in that clip to speak to it. Did I miss something?

Otherwise I just think the easier explanation is to hold Wentworth to her actions and assume she's just reverting to paranoid familiar territory at the bottom.

STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 19:29 on Mar 29, 2019

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

STAC Goat posted:

It's a huge gamble. If Rick had gone to one of the Kama they easily could have ratted him out and said "we have to get him out before he gets an idol".
But he literally can't get the idol against your wishes because he's giving you half of it. You have nothing at all to lose and an idol to gain!

Vernacular
Nov 29, 2004

The Bloop posted:

Yeah EoE has a hawaiian sling at the very least and Joe is going to be just fine there and if those people are all really on the jury, he might just earn all their votes with seafood and mustache rides

Fast Luck posted:

They get some rice, just like the full players do. They have some kind of fishing gear and Joe can catch himself some fish and then even do the Survivor MacGyver thing and build himself a palace. I don't think Joe's gonna waste away out there, even if he misses the Survivor pizza etc.

You mention the pizza flippantly but those rewards are super important, especially in the dog days of the season. Being out there also takes a pretty heavy psychological toll. They're not out there playing the game they came to play, they're all sitting together in lovely limbo. I don't think its a coincidence that one of the fresher evictees was the one to win the challenge and get back into the game.

The jury twist is a weird kink, and maybe knowing that would've tipped the scales in favor of taking out Wentworth, but any sort of EoE jury nepotism logic (which anyway I don't think is totally foolproof, it's not a given that the returnee is going to be a jury darling by default) applies to everybody, not just Joe.

Basically I think the people here squinting really hard to find problems with the Joe boot are overthinking things.

Vernacular fucked around with this message at 20:39 on Mar 29, 2019

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Fast Luck posted:

But he literally can't get the idol against your wishes because he's giving you half of it. You have nothing at all to lose and an idol to gain!

But Rick has no way of knowing who those people are, what their alliances or game plans are, or how that will play out. He's never even met those people. So yeah, a Victoria or Ron might totally see it that way. Or Julie in hindsight seemed like someone who might have been amenable to that kind of thing. But pick someone who wants to be loyal to their people or has a plan that doesn't include you or whatever and you threw it all away.

It's a gamble because you can't just assume everyone will think like you do. I mean, Rick of all people knows that with memories of Wendy and most of his friends currently selling him down a river. So I get why he picked the one person he knew probably wouldn't gently caress him. Even if I agree that there were probably potentially much more interesting and useful ways he could have played it. But he had almost zero information to make a decision like that on.

The Bloop
Jul 5, 2004

by Fluffdaddy

Vernacular posted:

Basically I think the people here squinting really hard to find problems with the Joe boot are overthinking things.

You quoted me but yeah I don't think it was a mistake because they didn't know about the early Jury. You can't just not vote people out because they might get back in.

I was just saying he is uniquely equipped to benefit from EoE more than probably any of the other cast

Bigass Moth
Mar 6, 2004

I joined the #RXT REVOLUTION.
:boom:
he knows...
I just don’t get why Joe did nothing on tribal day despite not having an idol and knowing his team has just voted out the other returnee and I think knowing they were gunning for him. Why not try to flip and bring Aurora who was clearly in the outside?

Propaganda Machine
Jan 2, 2005

Truthiness!

Bigass Moth posted:

I just don’t get why Joe did nothing on tribal day despite not having an idol and knowing his team has just voted out the other returnee and I think knowing they were gunning for him. Why not try to flip and bring Aurora who was clearly in the outside?

Because he's a dumb-dumb?

A Typical Goon
Feb 25, 2011

Fast Luck posted:

But he literally can't get the idol against your wishes because he's giving you half of it. You have nothing at all to lose and an idol to gain!

Doesn't the idol only go to Devins? I don't get how it was supposed to benefit him at all. If he gives the idol to someone he doesn't 100% trust already he is only increasing his own target, they'll make sure he gets out to keep the idol from him. I don't see how Rick getting an idol helps Kama at all. It seems like production basically forced him back with his old allies that already voted him out

This season is really loving bad. Productions hand is way too obvious and the EoE is just a complete time waste

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

The only defenses I can really muster for Joe are (a) we don't really know Aurora's deal and if she's ready to flip, (b) Wentworth and Co throwing Devins and David under the bus to Kama might have made flipping seem like a non option, and (c) Joe probably assumed like many of us did that it would make sense for Kama to lessen Lesu's numbers before breaking their own majority.

That is - incidentally - my reason for thinking Joe was the wrong vote. For whatever reason Joe and Aurora were on Team Kama. So it just makes sense to me to use that and take apart Lesu and any threat of a majority coup forming. If they had gone after a Lesu then theoretically they retain their 8-4 advantage into next Tribal hoping Joe and Aurora don't wise up and start playing better to make it 6-6. But now they've betrayed Aurora and given her and the rest every reason to make that 6-6 happen if they can get their heads out of their asses. No squinting or EoE stuff. Just numbers.

But I digress. My best guess is Joe just didn't think Lesu was together enough to be a reliable flip and/or he didn't think he could convince Aurora to flip so he just hoped he could lay low enough to buy a couple of tribals while Lesu got pagonged and then figure something else out.

Joe's definitely not a gamer but I've never really gotten the sense he was dumb. At the very least he seemed to grasp his place in Kama a lot clearer than Aubry did.

STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 21:19 on Mar 29, 2019

Propaganda Machine
Jan 2, 2005

Truthiness!

A Typical Goon posted:

Doesn't the idol only go to Devins? I don't get how it was supposed to benefit him at all. If he gives the idol to someone he doesn't 100% trust already he is only increasing his own target, they'll make sure he gets out to keep the idol from him. I don't see how Rick getting an idol helps Kama at all. It seems like production basically forced him back with his old allies that already voted him out

This season is really loving bad. Productions hand is way too obvious and the EoE is just a complete time waste

Devins and David each have half of one immunity idol. It's like a weakened version of the two-halves super idol in Kaoh Rong. When they agree to combine their halves and decide to play it, it can be played on whomsoever they choose, but it's meant to be a decision between the two of them.

For the record, I have absolutely zero problem with Devins giving this information and power to pretty much the one and only person he knows he can trust. Things go sideways if he uses it as a bargaining chip against an enemy.

Vernacular
Nov 29, 2004

STAC Goat posted:

That is - incidentally - my reason for thinking Joe was the wrong vote. For whatever reason Joe and Aurora were on Team Kama. So it just makes sense to me to use that and take apart Lesu and any threat of a majority coup forming. If they had gone after a Lesu then theoretically they retain their 8-4 advantage into next Tribal hoping Joe and Aurora don't wise up and start playing better to make it 6-6. But now they've betrayed Aurora and given her and the rest every reason to make that 6-6 happen if they can get their heads out of their asses. No squinting or EoE stuff. Just numbers.

I just feel like the chances are high of at least one of the two following things happening: 1) Aurora maintaining her ties to Kama even after the blindside, 2) there being enough persistent ill will amongst the Lessus to keep them divided.

The 6 are being bold but they have fair enough reason to.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Vernacular posted:

I just feel like the chances are high of at least one of the two following things happening: 1) Aurora maintaining her ties to Kama even after the blindside, 2) there being enough persistent ill will amongst the Lessus to keep them divided.

The 6 are being bold but they have fair enough reason to.

I honestly agree. I think the odds are low after this week that Wentworth/Lauren/Wardog, David/Devins, and Aurora can all manage to get on the same page, if for no other reason than Wentworth & Co seemed determined not to. My guesses would also be that Aurora plays passively and stays with Kama, Wentworth's crew stay indignant empowered by their idols, and David & Devins figure their only real path is to lay low and find an opening.

But you and I have more knowledge than Kama does and I still think it would have been a safer bet to just maintain their majority and just gamble that Joe will lose another immunity comp sometime this season and in the meantime he and Aurora won't start playing the game hard. Instead their gambling that Lesu can't get their poo poo together... which might be a good gamble but it seems more combustible than Joe/Aurora (and that's without factoring in the 3 idols Kama doesn't know about).

I get why the 6 did what they did. I just think they made the wrong choice of two risk/reward options and if things fall apart this will probably be the decision that started it.

edit: There's also the possibility that with all those idols Wentworth or someone just makes a one off play that damages Kama enough to open the door to that they're falling apart. That's another reason - even without knowing there's idols in play - I think you just take out the wily player who you know enjoys shaking stuff up who is actively trying to paint targets and form alliances vs the passive one who just wants to paint and asks you where to vote.

STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 21:49 on Mar 29, 2019

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

by Fluffdaddy
I think next week someone from the Kama 6, probably Julie, pulls Devins/David into a side alliance (possibly with someone else) and then they all look to vote out someone from the Kelly/Lauren/Wardog group with a vite split but the tables get turned by the HIIs except the Kelly group will try to vote out Devins who also plays his idol and then there is just a clusterfuck.

Vernacular
Nov 29, 2004
Even though I thought it was a fair move (and another reason I just thought of: taking out Wentworth probably accelerates the timeline of the inevitable Kama implosion, whereas eliminating Joe allows for continued solidarity) it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see things fall apart based on *pauses for dramatic effect* the edit. The 6 are not getting a favorable portrayal.

I think their main mistake was probably icing out Joe so much to begin with. Part of the situation was no doubt partially attributable to his ineptitude, but if they had made more seemingly genuine attempts to keep him involved, he wouldn’t have been such a floater and thus Wentworth would have been a more clear-cut option.

edit: Now I’m just thinking about Joe’s overall Survivor deal. Like I wonder how much of his constant elevated threat is brought upon by himself vs. the inherent effects of being a buff, handsome, Fabio-haired island god. Ozzy’s an interesting comparison - for all his strategic shortcomings, he was at least much better at portraying himself as an everyman and ingratiating himself within groups than Joe, who just carries himself with this aloof, above-it-all manner a lot of the time. It’s pretty subtle at times, but it’s there, and I bet it’s a turn-off.

Vernacular fucked around with this message at 22:02 on Mar 29, 2019

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Again, I don't think you can blame Joe too much since they seemed to ice out Aubry as well. The main difference seems to have been that Aubry got arrogant and assumed that no one was talking game with her because they were passive newbs but Joe seemed to recognize the old "if they're not talking game with me, they're talking game about me" thing. Like I said, Joe read the clues of the Kama situation way better than Aubry seemed to.

Its tough to know how good or bad Kama played it since we've seen so little of them. We have seen Rob placating Joe. But it seems reasonable to assume that, yeah, they iced Joe and Aubry out too much and they're lucky neither wised up enough to make them pay for it (and both were in a position to do so). Now they seem to be gambling that they can play the Lesu people the same way and sooner or later those kind of risks will probably bite you. Especially with a wildcard like Wentworth.

edit:

Vernacular posted:

edit: Now I’m just thinking about Joe’s overall Survivor deal. Like I wonder how much of his constant elevated threat is brought upon by himself vs. the inherent effects of being a buff, handsome, Fabio-haired island god. Ozzy’s an interesting comparison - for all his strategic shortcomings, he was at least much better at portraying himself as an everyman and ingratiating himself within groups than Joe, who just carries himself with this aloof, above-it-all manner a lot of the time. It’s pretty subtle at times, but it’s there, and I bet it’s a turn-off.
Joe seems kind of trapped. He openly expressed that he wanted to play down the "Joe Amazing" thing this season but he also couldn't half rear end the Tribal Challenges because he was always at risk of being voted out. The only way to counter that is a strong ally/alliance and he seemed to get the bum draw as Kama seemed way less open to the vets than Manu were.

In the end you just have to end up with people who decide your value to them is worth more than your threat. Because I'm not sure I can wrap my mind around the idea that "Joe just needs to be less arrogant and offputting of a person, and more like Ozzy." I actually get the sense people (off the internet) do like Joe. Its part of what makes him a threat.

STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 23:40 on Mar 29, 2019

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Here's my thoughts on the Rick idol situation:

Fast Luck strategy: he buys himself time but now has no power and needs to hope that he can somehow weasel his way into a majority with the person he gave the information to. He's now a lackey and has to hope that he can do something about that even though his idol is now basically public knowledge. Incredibly small chance to win the game from that position.

Rick strategy: Has to take the risk that he or David aren't the target. Nobody knows about the idol except David. David is not going to share information about the idol with anyone. If they both survive, they have the power to flip the game. Much higher chance to win the game.

I 100% agree with how Rick did it.

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

A Typical Goon posted:

Doesn't the idol only go to Devins? I don't get how it was supposed to benefit him at all. If he gives the idol to someone he doesn't 100% trust already he is only increasing his own target, they'll make sure he gets out to keep the idol from him. I don't see how Rick getting an idol helps Kama at all. It seems like production basically forced him back with his old allies that already voted him out

This season is really loving bad. Productions hand is way too obvious and the EoE is just a complete time waste
Unless I'm misunderstanding it, the idol doesn't really go to anyone. If Devins and someone else each have half of it for that TC (which is required for it to activate), then that's just it: they each have half of a now activated idol. But only half, so one of them has to willingly hand their half over for it to be completed and used, and either one can do that or refuse to do it. That means Devins is no risk at all to Kama if he spills the details to them and gives them one of the pieces, because they don't have to give it back, but he could promise his piece to them if he's still in the game after that TC, thus ensuring his safety for one round and avoiding a revolving door situation.

STAC Goat posted:

But Rick has no way of knowing who those people are, what their alliances or game plans are, or how that will play out. He's never even met those people. So yeah, a Victoria or Ron might totally see it that way. Or Julie in hindsight seemed like someone who might have been amenable to that kind of thing. But pick someone who wants to be loyal to their people or has a plan that doesn't include you or whatever and you threw it all away.

It's a gamble because you can't just assume everyone will think like you do. I mean, Rick of all people knows that with memories of Wendy and most of his friends currently selling him down a river. So I get why he picked the one person he knew probably wouldn't gently caress him. Even if I agree that there were probably potentially much more interesting and useful ways he could have played it. But he had almost zero information to make a decision like that on.
Yeah, I'm just trying to glean if there was an actual canon intended way to use it the producers had in mind when they designed that power. I do think the idea was he could what I described above, getting his foot in the door and not being immediately sent back out. The fact that he got to stay while only sharing the idol with a trusted ally is obviously a better outcome for him, of course, though that wasn't without risk.

Fast Luck fucked around with this message at 22:36 on Mar 29, 2019

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Yeah, I'm sure they had bigger hopes for the power but it was just some production bad luck that the guy who won the power was also the guy who had an already existing close ally in the game and had other people moving against him in such a way that bunkering down made sense to him.

If you try and reason out where the other EoE go with that power it gets much more interesting. Aubry might have reached out to David or Wentworth. Chris might have reached out to Kama. Who knows what Reem, Keith, or Wendy would have done? Devins was just the one guy who already had an easy option to pick for "someone who you trust to give you back your idol."

And like... even if Lesu had stuck together Devins might have thought the idol would be a good way to try and flip Aurora or someone to flip the numbers. But it just didn't play out where that was really a sensible option.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
I have no idea if Chris would have gone back to Wardog or if he'd flip immediately.

Honestly, that's what was so boring about Rick winning; it was obvious he'd immediately jump back to David, even if I didn't predict Lesu fracturing near immediately.

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

STAC Goat posted:

That is - incidentally - my reason for thinking Joe was the wrong vote. For whatever reason Joe and Aurora were on Team Kama. So it just makes sense to me to use that and take apart Lesu and any threat of a majority coup forming. If they had gone after a Lesu then theoretically they retain their 8-4 advantage into next Tribal hoping Joe and Aurora don't wise up and start playing better to make it 6-6. But now they've betrayed Aurora and given her and the rest every reason to make that 6-6 happen if they can get their heads out of their asses. No squinting or EoE stuff. Just numbers.
This is exactly my thought, and there's another big factor that amplifies the importance of that 8-4 advantage: idols. No one in the Kama 6 has an idol, and none of them has heard anything about the whereabouts of any idols. Obviously they have no way of knowing the other side has three of them, but they do know the Lesu folks have on their roster:
David, who found multiple idols his previous season
Kelley, who found multiple idols her previous season
The Wardog, a bodega-level Tony clone

From where the Kama 6 stand:
There's 6 of them, and they just blindsided a total of 6 people, and 3 of those people have idols. That could be fine, but that's not exactly a pristine outlook. There could be 8 people still in their alliance and only 4 people outside it. Not saying a 4-4-4 vote split is a walk in the park but at least they'd have that option, which would strengthen their position when it comes to controlling the votes.

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

IcePhoenix posted:

Here's my thoughts on the Rick idol situation:

Fast Luck strategy: he buys himself time but now has no power and needs to hope that he can somehow weasel his way into a majority with the person he gave the information to. He's now a lackey and has to hope that he can do something about that even though his idol is now basically public knowledge. Incredibly small chance to win the game from that position.

Rick strategy: Has to take the risk that he or David aren't the target. Nobody knows about the idol except David. David is not going to share information about the idol with anyone. If they both survive, they have the power to flip the game. Much higher chance to win the game.

I 100% agree with how Rick did it.
I agree with that too, and was mostly just trying to think of what production intended he do with that peculiar idol. But I think "secret besties with someone in the majority" isn't a total dead end the way you describe, even though it was for Laurel/Donathan. I think you can potentially pull some good things off from that spot.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Yeah, I'm trying not to factor the idols in too much to my opinion of Kama since they don't have that knowledge but they should at least be cognizant to the threat of idols and why holding onto an 8-4 majority is so valuable to potentially counter them. And 8-4 majority is also helpful because it just helps with passive players like Aurora and Joe to keep up the momentum of such a majority. That's how you get minority voters to vote how you want to, because the numbers seem so insurmountable. Sometimes the best tool in Survivor is the basic sense that there's no point in fighting. Voluntarily making things 6-6, -or 7-5, or 6-3-2-1, or however you want to count it - just opens the door to the numbers actually being workable. I don't know if any of the non Kama 6 are going to take advantage of that but I don't think the Kama 6 should have ever given them the option.


ApplesandOranges posted:

I have no idea if Chris would have gone back to Wardog or if he'd flip immediately.

Honestly, that's what was so boring about Rick winning; it was obvious he'd immediately jump back to David, even if I didn't predict Lesu fracturing near immediately.

Yeah, I was cool with Rick winning since he seemed like the best option to play the game and help Lesu to pull off a coup and bust up that anonymous Kama plurality (and at this stage of the game I just want to see the balls scattered). Him or Aubry. But once Wentworth said "that's the last person I wanted to win" I gulped and started wishing Wendy was in the game.

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blue squares
Sep 28, 2007

She didn't actually say that. The show lied with the editing

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