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Coldwar timewarp
May 8, 2007



Cat Mattress posted:

And Hezbollah is a textbook example of that.

Saying Hezbollah is largely why Saudi Arabia is is hostile to Iran is flat out wrong. It’s not their toes getting stepped on in Lebanon that makes them enemies.

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Saladin Rising
Nov 12, 2016

When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Quick good news first, then three related stories:
https://twitter.com/AzadiRojava/status/1116353516098994176

quote:

In Eastern Countryside of Deir Ezzor, civil council has successfully restored pumps that irrigate 150K dunum of farm land in an area where 450K people live with a canal that is 40 KM long from al Sahba water station to al Suwar town. via #CMD
A dunum is apparently an old Ottoman measurement that equals 1000 square Meters.

Update on the Al Hawl camp, which has been way, way over capacity with refugees:
https://twitter.com/afp/status/1116294571187691521?s=21
https://www.france24.com/en/20190411-syria-kurds-say-deal-made-31000-displaced-iraqis-go-home

quote:

Syria's Kurds on Thursday announced a deal with Baghdad for 31,000 displaced Iraqis, mostly women and children, in camps in northeastern Syria to return home to Iraq.

Tens of thousands of people live in the camps, which swelled enormously during the months-long battle that culminated in the defeat of the last vestige of the Islamic State group's "caliphate" by a Kurdish-led alliance.

"A delegation from the Iraqi cabinet visited the autonomous administration to discuss the return to Iraq of displaced Iraqis, estimated to number 31,000, and an agreement was reached," Kurdish official Mahmud Kero told AFP.

"So far 4,000 people have signed up and we are waiting for the Iraqi government to open up the Iraqi border to start," he said. Kero said many of the displaced did not have Iraqi identity papers, including children born on Syrian soil. "We have asked the Iraqi government to find a solution," he said.

An Iraqi official said on Tuesday that Baghdad was making preparations for the return of tens of thousands of citizens, most of them "women and children". Those expected to return do not include suspected IS fighters being held in Kurdish-run jails, after surrendering or being caught fleeing the jihadists' last stand.

"We have asked for the return of all Iraqis including those accused of belonging to IS," Kero said.

The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces announced the defeat of the IS "caliphate" last month after tens of thousands of people streamed out of the last patch of jihadist territory in the eastern village of Baghouz near the Iraqi border. But the jihadists maintain a presence in Syria's vast Badia desert as well as sleeper cells in populated areas, and have continued to claim deadly attacks in areas controlled by the SDF.

The jihadists swept across a swathe of Syria and Iraq larger than Britain in 2014, declaring a "caliphate" in territory they held, but have since lost all of it to multiple offensives.
Most of the people in the camp are from Tal Afar and the surrounding areas and haven't been able to return home because of ISIS and fears from the Yazidis on nearby Mt Sinjar.

On a very related topic, Iraq is essentially asking for money to put all the remaining foreign ISIS fighters on trial rather than go through the lengthy process of trying to send them back to their home countries to face trial, since most of their home countries don't want them back:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/apr/10/iraq-seeks-multibillion-fee-to-receive-isis-prisoners-from-syria

quote:

Baghdad and Washington are in talks to transfer and place on trial tens of thousands of suspected Isis fighters and their families from detention centres in Syria to prison camps in Iraq, with Iraqi officials seeking a multibillion dollar fee to receive remnants of the terror group captured over five years of war.

Discussions about what to do with Isis members, among them thousands of foreign men, women and children, have been pushed intensively by US officials, who have also lobbied coalition partners to remove their citizens from two cramped detention centres in Syria’s north-east, which one former senior US official described as a “volcano”.

Baghdad has asked for a $10bn (£7.6bn) fee up front, then $1bn per annum to receive the detainees, senior western officials have told the Guardian.
The size of the mooted price tag has led some in Washington and London to view it as a rebuff of a US plan, rather than a willingness to take a stake in a politically sensitive and dangerous operation, just as a war-weary Iraq had begun to recover.

Other Iraqi pre-conditions include no access for humanitarian workers to any facilities on Iraqi soil, or objection to the death penalty. Neither is likely to fly with Britain or France, which remain opposed to sending its citizens to countries that carry out executions.

The US state department did not respond to a request for comment. Current and former US officials have said the administration wants to do everything possible to guarantee the security of its Kurdish allies, and to remove the burden of holding the Isis fighters, all while withdrawing US troops from northern Syria. A significant break-out by Isis detainees would undermine the justification for the withdrawal, which the US president, Donald Trump, has insisted must take place.

A regional intelligence official said the plan to remove all non-Syrian alleged Isis members from Syria follows two-way talks that started late last year between Baghdad and Damascus about transferring Iraqi citizens back across the border. Those talks stalled partly over a dispute about where to house up to 35,000 Iraqis currently thought to be in one of the two camps alone – among them at least 2,000 battle-tested fighters.

One site mooted for a camp inside Iraq was at Awinat, between Tal Afar and Sinjar, but it was quickly rejected because it could place nearby Yazidi communities still recovering from an attempted genocide at grave risk. The area’s proximity to Mosul, one of two former centres of gravity for Isis, was also seen by Kurdish leaders as a deal-breaker.

What to do with at least 20,000 foreigners detained in north-east Syria continues to vex the international community, with no country wanting to repatriate adult citizens who had willingly travelled to join Isis and only a few willing to retrieve children who were born in the so-called caliphate.

France recently sent officials to collect five children whose French parents were either killed, or in detention. But only a handful of other children have been sent back to their homelands.

A western official familiar with the Baghdad–Washington talks said: “Now that the Iraqis have put something on the table, the US will jump on it. It doesn’t mean it will lead to anything, but regardless of how it was intended, the US will see it as an opening bid. So, the coming weeks will determine if there’s any mileage, as otherwise the west really is out of options.”

Also related, the beginning of the trial of a German ISIS woman who, uh...
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/09/world/europe/germany-isis-trial.html

quote:

While devoted followers of the Islamic State, a man and woman bought a 5-year-old Yazidi girl in Iraq to use as a slave, then let her die of thirst in the scorching heat, the German authorities contend. The trial of the woman began on Tuesday — one of the highest-profile cases against a female member of the terrorist group.

The prosecution stems largely from the words of the defendant, who was desperate to return last year to the Islamic State, or ISIS, and found someone willing to drive her to the Middle East. Unknown to her, the driver was working with the German security services, and he recorded their conversations as she told him all about her life in the organization.

The 27-year-old German woman, identified only as Jennifer W. in keeping with German privacy law, showed no emotion during the 15 minutes it took a judge in Munich to read out the charges against her, which include murder, war crimes, membership in a foreign terror organization and weapons violations.

No pleas are entered in German courts and the defendant, wearing a white blouse, black slacks and a black cardigan, declined to make a statement. Her lawyer did not say whether she would say anything during the proceedings, which are scheduled to continue until September.

But the Yazidi girl’s mother, whose identity has not been released, is expected to testify, providing both key evidence and the emotional heart of the case. The mother, who says she was also held as a slave by the German woman and her husband, is serving as a co-plaintiff in the trial but was not in court for the opening proceedings.

“Our client would like to see justice served, as well as the opportunity to finally give a full account of her suffering and that of her daughter,” one of the woman’s lawyers, Natalie von Wistinghausen, said in a statement. The girl’s mother is also represented by Amal Clooney, an international human rights lawyer.

When ISIS overran northern Iraq in 2014, thousands of Yazidi women and girls were abducted and sold to ISIS members as slaves. They also became victims of brutal sexual assault.

According to the indictment, Jennifer W. and her husband “bought a 5-year-old girl in summer 2015 from a group of prisoners of war and kept her in their home as a slave.”

“After the girl fell ill and wet her mattress, the defendant’s husband punished the girl by chaining her up outside in the searing heat and leaving her in great agony to die of thirst,” prosecutors said. “The defendant let her husband do as he liked, and took no action to save the girl.”

:gonk: Yeah, can I vote to take Iraq up on that offer? That sounds like a good plan to me.

Saladin Rising fucked around with this message at 22:23 on Apr 11, 2019

OhFunny
Jun 26, 2013

EXTREMELY PISSED AT THE DNC
https://twitter.com/AlMonitor/statu...ingawful.com%2F

Bad things happening in Turkey.

CrazyLoon
Aug 10, 2015

"..."

Likely to only serve as voter intimidation or at worst released without charges after the rerun is over ofc, if they're smart about it, or prosecuted as Gulenists if they're dumber than dirt.

Then again, you have to be p dumb to begin with if you accuse others of cheating, and then cheat this blatantly to win a rerun that is now guaranteed to have zero legitimacy.

CrazyLoon fucked around with this message at 22:36 on Apr 11, 2019

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

OhFunny posted:

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1116128996444577793?s=19

MESA been a half-baked idea from the start anyway.

doesn't surprise me. despite the saber ratling and the various proxy wars. the arab nations and even bibi don't want an out and out war with iran at least from what i have read.

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless
Edit: old

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless
Basra's provincial council voted unanimously in favor of recognizing Basra as a region, which would see Basra's relationship with the federal government look more like Kurdistans. People are out in support of the vote, and are making sure Baghdad sees it.

https://twitter.com/Mustafa_Habib33/status/1116726128775966720

Hadi al-Ameri, the head of the Badr Brigades, has been appointed as the "czar" of Basra matters. His conquest alliance got more votes than any other party in Basra in the last elections, but afterwards when the protests kicked off, the Badr headquarters in Basra was torched. Nonetheless, it's the epicenter of his political power, and he's come out in support of the movement. With protest season only a couple months away, this may be seen as a viable step to keep a lid on things. If it came to pass, it would represent quite a shift in Iran's strategy in Iraq. When Maliki was PM, this movement got no traction with his government, but now with the old power structure dominated by the state of law coalition coming to an end, fracturing the central government and regionalizing the state probably doesn't sound so bad.

Warbadger
Jun 17, 2006

Coldwar timewarp posted:

Saying Hezbollah is largely why Saudi Arabia is is hostile to Iran is flat out wrong. It’s not their toes getting stepped on in Lebanon that makes them enemies.

To be fair, Hezbollah has mostly been active in Syria on behalf of Iran for a while now. But your point is correct, Hezbollah is only a small part of why many of the gulf states hate Iran.

Saladin Rising
Nov 12, 2016

When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/bct8u8/raqqa_the_us_and_sdf_are_removing_old_and/
https://twitter.com/VivaRevolt/status/1117115794129813504

quote:

The US and SDF are removing Old and Destroyed Airplanes and parts at Al-Tabqa Airbase,which is under SDF control,in preparation to rejuvenate and transform the Airbase into an usable Airbase

Apparently some or all of the frames are going to Iraq/Northern Iraq:
https://streamable.com/lr1kr

They're probably not worth much more than scrap value at this point, although there's always small spare parts that might still be usable.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Saladin Rising posted:

https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/bct8u8/raqqa_the_us_and_sdf_are_removing_old_and/
https://twitter.com/VivaRevolt/status/1117115794129813504


Apparently some or all of the frames are going to Iraq/Northern Iraq:
https://streamable.com/lr1kr

They're probably not worth much more than scrap value at this point, although there's always small spare parts that might still be usable.

Theyl be melted down in a backyard smelter or a village smelter or bounced sround and end up being used for bunk 1911s manufacturing in Pakistan or Iran

Squalid
Nov 4, 2008

Haftar had a Mig-21 shotdown. So far like over 75 people have been killed in the fighting, hundreds have been wounded, and GNA sources have posted pictures of maybe ~200 prisoners they claim to have taken from the LNA. The LNA is still fighting in the Tripoli suburbs but if he's going to take the capital it is clear it will take months, and may endanger oil exports.

Really hard to imagine what they see in him in Paris. The guy is just a terrible politician and leader, on top of being an aspiring autocrat. The only thing he knows how to do is keep shouting that he's fighting terrorism, but apparently that's enough for his foreign supporters.

For Haftar to win as things are now either the battle in Tripoli turns into a prolonged siege, or a vicious street fight with whole city blocks leveled by artillery. I'm not sure the LNA is really up to the task either way.

Absurd Alhazred
Mar 27, 2010

by Athanatos
https://twitter.com/sh_grewal/status/1118109922598817792

2B or not 2B. But definitely not 3B.

Cat Mattress
Jul 14, 2012

by Cyrano4747
I take it Bouteflika was the zeroth B, then.

OhFunny
Jun 26, 2013

EXTREMELY PISSED AT THE DNC
https://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/1118199447106793474?s=19

Here's some unsurprising news.

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless
lol

https://twitter.com/DavidMWitty1/status/1118142082831536128

In something less flippant,

https://twitter.com/AJEnglish/status/1118424524884721664

I feel like the identity of Trump's presidency is increasingly becoming linked with the Saudi/US relationship, and in the inevitable counter movement against him is going to be shaped in large part by an opposition to that relationship. It's going to be a hell of a minefield for known diplomatic wunderkind MBS to navigate.

Volkerball fucked around with this message at 09:11 on Apr 17, 2019

Cease to Hope
Dec 12, 2011
I thought Iran banned Instagram?

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless
Telegram.

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless
Evidently it's a full on purge. They got the hardliner candidate for president in the last election as well.

https://twitter.com/FaghihiRohollah/status/1118425868106383365

Cease to Hope
Dec 12, 2011

Apparently it's both.

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless

Idk if that went through. Either way, Iranian politicians have accounts on a bunch of web services that are banned.

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

look, if the public doesn't support him they can just vote him down in the referendum

Unimpressed
Feb 13, 2013

I'm sure 99.9% of the population support him and the referendum will show this.

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!!
May 31, 2006

Volkerball posted:

lol

https://twitter.com/DavidMWitty1/status/1118142082831536128

In something less flippant,

https://twitter.com/AJEnglish/status/1118424524884721664

I feel like the identity of Trump's presidency is increasingly becoming linked with the Saudi/US relationship, and in the inevitable counter movement against him is going to be shaped in large part by an opposition to that relationship. It's going to be a hell of a minefield for known diplomatic wunderkind MBS to navigate.

such a shame that the Saudis and their noble crusade against the Houthis for the crime of... says here "killing a Saudi-appointed puppet?" weird- are going to be tainted by their association with Trump

Zedhe Khoja
Nov 10, 2017

sürgünden selamlar
yıkıcılar ulusuna

Certainly this move will be opposed by the very honorable and nonpartisan Egyptian Supreme Court, who brought Sisi to power when their personal influence was going to be curtailed, right?

e: What are the honorable Baradei and Mansour saying about this?

Zedhe Khoja fucked around with this message at 05:10 on Apr 18, 2019

Miruvor
Jan 19, 2007
Pillbug

Man, remember how Mohamed Morsi was such an autocrat and was about to impose his evil rule?

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

Miruvor posted:

Man, remember how Mohamed Morsi was such an autocrat and was about to impose his evil rule?
Yep. I still think Sisi's better considering he doesn't act like a theocrat. Just a regular autocrat.

Absurd Alhazred
Mar 27, 2010

by Athanatos
I didn't get the sense that Morsi was some kind of tyrant or theocrat, mostly he had to deal with a very military-controlled "oversight" system which ended up deposing him. I was hoping the Muslim Brotherhood's closeness with Hamas would lead to him helping alleviate issues with Gaza, as well. It just really sucks all around, and I'm still mad at people who kept denying it was a coup as it was happening.

Gen. Ripper
Jan 12, 2013


Grouchio posted:

Yep. I still think Sisi's better considering he doesn't act like a theocrat. Just a regular autocrat.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2013_Rabaa_massacre

Morsi didn't kill almost 600 people (at the lowest estimate) in one day to cling onto power.

Squalid
Nov 4, 2008

Grouchio posted:

Yep. I still think Sisi's better considering he doesn't act like a theocrat. Just a regular autocrat.

you are also incredibly stupid so this doesn't surprise me.

Kawasaki Nun
Jul 16, 2001

by Reene

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:

such a shame that the Saudis and their noble crusade against the Houthis for the crime of... says here "killing a Saudi-appointed puppet?" weird- are going to be tainted by their association with Trump

Their plan to revamp their economy through privatization and foreign investment could certainly fall short of predictions if MBS continues to suck at his job.

Grouchio posted:

Yep. I still think Sisi's better considering he doesn't act like a theocrat. Just a regular autocrat.

Nice of your to announce your preferred brand of oppression. Hopefully supporting military dictatorships never becomes too distasteful for you.

Kawasaki Nun fucked around with this message at 19:07 on Apr 18, 2019

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

Kawasaki Nun posted:

Nice of your to announce your preferred brand of oppression. Hopefully supporting military dictatorships never becomes too distasteful for you.
Do you think Egypt would've be able to maintain a democracy for multiple years without a military takeover, had the coup against Morsi never occured? Do you think the Egyptian people as a whole appreciate democratic values, considering trends in the Arab world? Or are they more used to strongman leadership? From what i've seen I'm inclined to believe the latter.

If I sound like I support dictatorships then it's my cynicism talking. And deep down I don't.

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead
Even given his disappointing end of his tenure, the odds of the Morsi government leading to a functioning democracy or a quasi-functioning democracy weren't zero.

Or if they were, it's because a military coup was inevitable, which isn't exactly a point in favor of Sisi.

Squalid
Nov 4, 2008

Grouchio posted:

Do you think Egypt would've be able to maintain a democracy for multiple years without a military takeover, had the coup against Morsi never occured? Do you think the Egyptian people as a whole appreciate democratic values, considering trends in the Arab world? Or are they more used to strongman leadership? From what i've seen I'm inclined to believe the latter.

If I sound like I support dictatorships then it's my cynicism talking. And deep down I don't.

I really can't fathom how you managed to grow up into a neocon despite becoming an adult after the Iraq War Grouchio. They way you constantly drool and slaver over the prospect of violent coups, political murders and your total disregard for the wider ramifications of such actions is repulsive.

Coldwar timewarp
May 8, 2007



Squalid posted:

I really can't fathom how you managed to grow up into a neocon despite becoming an adult after the Iraq War Grouchio. They way you constantly drool and slaver over the prospect of violent coups, political murders and your total disregard for the wider ramifications of such actions is repulsive.

Is he the guy who asked the thread to do his homework over and over?

Saying that Arabs prefer to live under the boot is a really weird.

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

Coldwar timewarp posted:

Is he the guy who asked the thread to do his homework over and over?

Saying that Arabs prefer to live under the boot is a really weird.

on the plus side there's a Dem presidential contender who believes that

Squalid
Nov 4, 2008

Coldwar timewarp posted:

Is he the guy who asked the thread to do his homework over and over?

Saying that Arabs prefer to live under the boot is a really weird.

yes, in between cheer-leading murder and violence. We got to watch him blossom from an ignorant poly-sci major into a bloody thirsty freak who'll cheer lead even the worst abuses of state power in the name of American supremacy. I guess that transformation is the main point of most Poly sci programs though.

Absurd Alhazred
Mar 27, 2010

by Athanatos

Grouchio posted:

Do you think Egypt would've be able to maintain a democracy for multiple years without a military takeover, had the coup against Morsi never occured? Do you think the Egyptian people as a whole appreciate democratic values, considering trends in the Arab world? Or are they more used to strongman leadership? From what i've seen I'm inclined to believe the latter.

If I sound like I support dictatorships then it's my cynicism talking. And deep down I don't.

I think Morsi should have been allowed to go through the most important trial for a fledgling democracy: peacefully pass leadership on to whoever got elected afterwards. He never got that chance.

Helsing
Aug 23, 2003

DON'T POST IN THE ELECTION THREAD UNLESS YOU :love::love::love: JOE BIDEN
Do you think American would've be able to maintain a democracy for multiple years without a military takeover, had the 2016 election never occurred? Do you think the American people as a whole appreciate democratic values, considering trends in their country? Or are they more used to strongman leadership? From what i've seen I'm inclined to believe the latter.

If I sound like I support dictatorships then it's my cynicism talking. And deep down I don't.

fishmech
Jul 16, 2006

by VideoGames
Salad Prong

Squalid posted:

yes, in between cheer-leading murder and violence. We got to watch him blossom from an ignorant poly-sci major into a bloody thirsty freak who'll cheer lead even the worst abuses of state power in the name of American supremacy. I guess that transformation is the main point of most Poly sci programs though.
Don't forget how he claims women are frequently lying about being raped just to ruin the lives of men, if we're going to talk about weird poo poo he tosses down in political discussion.

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Grape
Nov 16, 2017

Happily shilling for China!

Grouchio posted:

Do you think Egypt would've be able to maintain a democracy for multiple years without a military takeover, had the coup against Morsi never occured? Do you think the Egyptian people as a whole appreciate democratic values, considering trends in the Arab world? Or are they more used to strongman leadership? From what i've seen I'm inclined to believe the latter.

If I sound like I support dictatorships then it's my cynicism talking. And deep down I don't.

Declaring an ethnic group is not into democracy is racism not cynicism. Also a time tested constant wrong thing that's been forever trotted out and gradually retreated for every region of the world outside of northwestern Europe.

Those southern Europeans and their simple passions, their fervent Catholicism, it is only natural we see a authoritarian Iberia, and the recent fascism of Italy. Tut tut.
Those eastern Europeans, they favor a boot, it's the Mongol and Ottoman in their blood and history. Also Eastern Orthodoxy is inherently favorable of autocracy.
Those East Asians, it's that Confucian side of them, kowtowing is in their nature. It's why we see strongmen in Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan's newborn democracy won't last.
Those Latin Americans, they're peasants adhering to their conquistador masters, they love strongmen and juntas, and that Catholicism again!

And on and on and on. And wrong and wrong and wrong.

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