|
FlamingLiberal posted:I wouldn't want to be anywhere in the ME if we attack Iran since the Iranians could go all-in with Hezbollah to attack US interests across the area There I was hoping to spend a bit of time not worrying about the folks back home.
|
#
?
May 15, 2019 01:45
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 27, 2024 15:46 |
|
|
If we do attack Iran (and I still think it's unlikely, even as I believe the presence of people who do want that to happen in high levels of government is dangerous as hell), the lesson will obviously be that they should have pushed for a breakout capability while we were bogged down with other conflicts. Stopping and negotiating ultimately didn't accomplish much for them, and while not stopping might have posed risks they haven't yet faced, attacking now would prove that not pushing forward carried substantial risks as well, at a time of our choosing since we're the ones pushing the relationship into a crisis mode now. Cool plan to make literal what people say about the US being a terror state: https://twitter.com/ColinKahl/status/1128456830647058432 This is basically my take on Trump's plan here: https://twitter.com/thomaswright08/status/1128451294727999488 Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 02:35 on May 15, 2019 |
|
#
?
May 15, 2019 02:17
|
|
|
Count Roland posted:It would spike very high if Iran made an attempt to close the Straight of Hormuz. The influx of jobs from shale fields reactivated with oil priced north of $80/bbl would be the single greatest economic event for the working class since the WPA. citation: the last time oil was north of $80/bbl that was also true.
|
|
#
?
May 15, 2019 03:35
|
|
|
Sinteres posted:https://twitter.com/Elizabeth_McLau/status/1128402047127171072 This is a big part of the reason why this will all amount to sabre-rattling. The ~coalition of the willing~ in this situation is basically the Republican party and Likud. Not gonna cut it.
|
|
#
?
May 15, 2019 03:50
|
|
|
Volkerball posted:This is a big part of the reason why this will all amount to sabre-rattling. The ~coalition of the willing~ in this situation is basically the Republican party and Likud. Not gonna cut it. What, you mean "New Europe" isn't going to send the Polish Lancers into a bunch of mountains to die?
|
|
#
?
May 15, 2019 04:10
|
|
|
As a side note, Little Gandhi, a movie I've been waiting to see for years, is finally out for rent on youtube, amazon prime, etc etc and you owe it to yourself to watch it if you don't know the story of Ghiath Matar, and have forgotten or don't remember what happened in Syria during the Arab Spring phase of the revolution. He was the co-leader of an activist committee that used to bring bottles of waters with roses attached to them to protests, and gave them to soldiers to show they weren't the enemy. The regime made an example out of them. Ghiath has been a symbol for peaceful resistance and the spirit of the revolution ever since. I haven't seen it yet, but I imagine you'd better prepare yourself if you intend to watch it, because it's not a happy tale. Here's the trailer. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQEiRsE4NCI
|
|
#
?
May 15, 2019 04:30
|
|
|
Yeah for a perspective invasion of Iran I just don't see it the support at home and abroad there building up for Gulf War v3.0. I am sure Bolton and a lot of senior Whitehouse staffers are rock hard at the thought of Iranian blood, but it would be suicide for the Republican Party and the president. Even the handful of insane Trump supporters I know don't want anything to do with another middle east adventure. I am personally a lot more worried about the US pulling the trigger on some type of regime change in Venezuela than Iran. This would be a massive conflict which will be months of preparation and planning. I don't think Trump has the patience for that endeavor, he is probably going to get in a slap fight with NK in a week anyway. Jack2142 fucked around with this message at 06:27 on May 15, 2019 |
|
#
?
May 15, 2019 06:23
|
|
|
gonna stretch it out. gonna do some bikram yoga. gonna get nice and limber and make a reach: this guy is not actually a veterans' advocate doesn't know anybody who is Complaining about the lack of private doctors in the VA is like complaining about the lack of homeopathic remedies in the tuberculosis ward. e; walking it back clearly i pulled a muscle Willie Tomg fucked around with this message at 06:33 on May 15, 2019 |
|
#
?
May 15, 2019 06:27
|
|
|
Isn't Trump getting sick and tired of Bolton as well?
|
|
#
?
May 15, 2019 07:17
|
|
|
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-iran-iraq-embassy/u-s-pulls-some-government-employees-from-iraq-idUSKCN1SL0SXquote:BAGHDAD, Iraq (Reuters) - Washington ordered the departure of non-emergency government employees from Iraq on Wednesday, after repeated U.S. expressions of concern about threats from Iranian-backed forces. Non-essential US personal have been ordered out of Iraq.
|
|
#
?
May 15, 2019 12:10
|
|
|
Jack2142 posted:Yeah for a perspective invasion of Iran I just don't see it the support at home and abroad there building up for Gulf War v3.0. I am sure Bolton and a lot of senior Whitehouse staffers are rock hard at the thought of Iranian blood, but it would be suicide for the Republican Party and the president. Even the handful of insane Trump supporters I know don't want anything to do with another middle east adventure. I am personally a lot more worried about the US pulling the trigger on some type of regime change in Venezuela than Iran. This would be a massive conflict which will be months of preparation and planning. I don't think Trump has the patience for that endeavor, he is probably going to get in a slap fight with NK in a week anyway. Anyone who gets money from AIPAC is also 1000% behind Operation Let's Genocide The Persians. Anyone who gives money to AIPAC is 10000% behind this plan. And that's in addition to the inevitable war in Venezuela. However, don't worry about North Korea: they officially have the bomb already, they are supported by China and (to a lesser extent) Russia, and the US allies in the region, South Korea and Japan, are actively pushing for deescalation. The US got no inroads to make the magic of gratuitous war happen in there. Iran, though? Iran does not have real support from Russia, China, or even India, and the US allies in the region (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Israel) are constantly pushing for war, since they know that it won't cost them anything: they're not gonna be the ones sending troops, nor the ones getting refugees. Pembroke Fuse posted:What, you mean "New Europe" isn't going to send the Polish Lancers into a bunch of mountains to die? Oh, they loving will, guaranteed.
|
|
#
?
May 15, 2019 12:12
|
|
|
Volkerball posted:This is a big part of the reason why this will all amount to sabre-rattling. The ~coalition of the willing~ in this situation is basically the Republican party and Likud. Not gonna cut it. Don't forget our pals the Saudis and Emiratis.
|
|
#
?
May 15, 2019 12:30
|
|
|
I think Bolton is making his move between the crap with the ‘tanker attacks’ and now them pulling personnel out of Iraq. I’m thinking they will do some kind of air strikes, possibly against alleged nuclear sites. Even though i believe it has been previously discussed that those sites were well underground and impossible to hit. https://twitter.com/theplumlinegs/status/1128607664722841602?s=21
|
|
#
?
May 15, 2019 14:02
|
|
|
trump already bombed an empty field in syria and declared it a military victory.
|
|
#
?
May 15, 2019 14:05
|
|
|
FizFashizzle posted:trump already bombed an empty field in syria and declared it a military victory. My hope is that this is the extent of the "Bigly Iran Freedom War of Great American Victory" and not a full-scale invasion.
|
|
#
?
May 15, 2019 14:07
|
|
|
FlamingLiberal posted:I think Bolton is making his move between the crap with the ‘tanker attacks’ and now them pulling personnel out of Iraq. Yes even Kenneth Pollack the foreign policy neoliberal guy who wrote the book on the case for Iraq pointed out in a latter book on Iran. Air striking the nuclear sites whether by US or Israel would be insufficient to take out the Iranian nuclear program infrastructure without resorting to using nuclear weapons. Would also do nothing to remove the knowledge that has been accumulated in the program and while it would set them back they could just start rebuilding again. While he veered past the peace deal and went all in on sanctioning Iran to death so the regime implodes, even he felt an actual invasion would be a massive disaster in the making.
|
|
#
?
May 15, 2019 15:09
|
|
|
FizFashizzle posted:trump already bombed an empty field in syria and declared it a military victory. this is really my biggest hope still, he'll blow up some mostly empty airfield that technically has Iranian assets and when Iran goes '...ok...gently caress you I guess but whatever?' he'll call it a win.
|
|
#
?
May 15, 2019 15:53
|
|
|
It's embarrassing how quickly the US regime dropped Venezuela to focus on their latest target for war. Really thirsty.
|
|
#
?
May 15, 2019 15:57
|
|
|
Jack2142 posted:Yeah for a perspective invasion of Iran I just don't see it the support at home and abroad there building up for Gulf War v3.0. I am sure Bolton and a lot of senior Whitehouse staffers are rock hard at the thought of Iranian blood, but it would be suicide for the Republican Party and the president. Even the handful of insane Trump supporters I know don't want anything to do with another middle east adventure. I am personally a lot more worried about the US pulling the trigger on some type of regime change in Venezuela than Iran. This would be a massive conflict which will be months of preparation and planning. I don't think Trump has the patience for that endeavor, he is probably going to get in a slap fight with NK in a week anyway. When they wanted a war with Syria, they claimed use of chemical weapons. That narrative was challenged. And the identity of the responsible party in the Douma chemical attack is still inconclusive. Watch for another gulf of Tonkin to push us into war, if they can't get Americans to support a war with patriotism. They will get support with fear.
|
|
#
?
May 15, 2019 16:22
|
|
|
Gunthen posted:When they wanted a war with Syria, they claimed use of chemical weapons. That narrative was challenged. And the identity of the responsible party in the Douma chemical attack is still inconclusive. No it isn't.
|
|
#
?
May 15, 2019 16:42
|
|
|
Flayer posted:It's embarrassing how quickly the US regime dropped Venezuela to focus on their latest target for war. Really thirsty.
|
|
#
?
May 15, 2019 16:43
|
|
|
Gunthen posted:When they wanted a war with Syria, they claimed use of chemical weapons. That narrative was challenged. And the identity of the responsible party in the Douma chemical attack is still inconclusive. No, it's not.
|
|
#
?
May 15, 2019 16:48
|
|
|
Grape posted:No it isn't. https://www.opcw.org/fact-finding-mission https://apnews.com/bd533182b7f244a4b771c73a0b601ec5 There's no doubt chemical weapons were used. Motivations and perpetrators are still inconclusive. There's a lot of conjecture (inside the American, Russian, and European governments) That it was terrorists fighting Assad who committed the attacks. There is also a very real chance Assad himself used the weapons. The point I was trying to make is simply that for most of the American public. It was not conclusive evidence that supported an invasion of Syria. There is a tremendous amount of fake news surrounding the subject. I attempt to look at a variety of sources (Even some very biased ones.) Gunthen fucked around with this message at 17:12 on May 15, 2019 |
|
#
?
May 15, 2019 17:02
|
|
|
quote:The FFM’s mandate is to determine whether chemical weapons or toxic chemicals as weapons have been used in Syria. It does not include identifying who is responsible for alleged attacks. Don't just spam your google results at us without reading them.
|
|
#
?
May 15, 2019 17:09
|
|
|
Gunthen posted:When they wanted a war with Syria, they claimed use of chemical weapons. That narrative was challenged. And the identity of the responsible party in the Douma chemical attack is still inconclusive. Watch for another gulf of Tonkin to push us into war, if they can't get Americans to support a war with patriotism. They will get support with fear. It isn't. The chemical attacks are squarely on Assad. That doesn't mean that false flags/Reichstag fires haven't happened in the past, and won't happen in the future - we're already witnessing some hilarious groping for a causus belli on Iran - but Assad did the things he did because he is a piece of poo poo. You can oppose imperialism and not completely lose your critical thinking skills or believe that everyone who opposes the US regime is incapable of committing war crimes (mind you, Obama himself merely gave Syria an ultimatum after the initial gas attacks). Also, lol on using RT and Sputnik as "sources".
|
|
#
?
May 15, 2019 17:10
|
|
|
Cease to Hope posted:Don't just spam your google results at us without reading them. I wanted to clarify that there is no conjecture that chemical weapons were used. Only who used them. Its why I separated that link and started the post with it, because its important. I listed a variety of sources because all of them are biased. The AP is likely the most reliable, I will edit the post and leave those two links.
|
|
#
?
May 15, 2019 17:12
|
|
|
Pembroke Fuse posted:It isn't. The chemical attacks are squarely on Assad. Did some information come out I did not hear, and can not find? Serious question. I agree with you Assad is a monster. Like Saddam and Gaddafi were.
|
|
#
?
May 15, 2019 17:16
|
|
|
Gunthen posted:I wanted to clarify that there is no conjecture that chemical weapons were used. Only who used them. Its why I separated that link and started the post with it, because its important. I listed a variety of sources because all of them are biased. The AP is likely the most reliable, I will edit the post and leave those two links. There is no basis for claiming that it's a false flag and good basis for claiming that it was not.
|
|
#
?
May 15, 2019 17:18
|
|
|
Cease to Hope posted:There is no basis for claiming that it's a false flag and good basis for claiming that it was not. Thanks bud. It can be hard to separate conspiracy from fact nowadays. Even with major news publications, I apologize for being ignorant of the whole picture before I posted about it. I appreciate the information. Gunthen fucked around with this message at 17:22 on May 15, 2019 |
|
#
?
May 15, 2019 17:19
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/hilzoy/status/1128666887330648066
|
|
#
?
May 15, 2019 17:22
|
|
|
Did you guys miss the leaked OPCW Engineering Assessment? https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ayBv-nEOMTtIc-QOvejQBdCnZQXTuJ5z/view On page 8 quote:The dimensions, characteristics and appearance of the cylinders, and the surrounding scene of the incidents, were inconsistent with what would have been expected in the case of either cylinder being delivered from an aircraft. In each case the alternative hypothesis produced the only plausible explanation for observations at the scene. quote:There is a high probability that both cylinders were manually placed at those two locations rather than delivered by aircraft SickZip fucked around with this message at 17:39 on May 15, 2019 |
|
#
?
May 15, 2019 17:30
|
|
|
The New York Times and Forensic Architecture investigation confirmed Bellingcat’s earlier analysis, adding additional key details, such as reconstructing the badly damaged metal frame found detached from one of the chlorine cylinders and proving it would fit perfectly over the chlorine cylinder. Most notably, it identified markings on the chlorine cylinder documented at one site, which were consistent with it having hit a metal mesh structure as it fell onto the balcony with a metal mesh structure found near the chlorine cylinder, fitting perfectly with the markings on the cylinder. This further confirmed the chlorine cylinder had been dropped from the air, not placed at the scene as some had alleged. == In any case, please try defending all the rest of the incredibly obvious chemical attacks as well. Not to mention if they were supposed to be a huge series of false flags, they didn't really seem effective at the presumed end goal, did they.
|
|
#
?
May 15, 2019 17:49
|
|
|
Mozi posted:The New York Times and Forensic Architecture investigation confirmed Bellingcat’s earlier analysis, adding additional key details, such as reconstructing the badly damaged metal frame found detached from one of the chlorine cylinders and proving it would fit perfectly over the chlorine cylinder. Most notably, it identified markings on the chlorine cylinder documented at one site, which were consistent with it having hit a metal mesh structure as it fell onto the balcony with a metal mesh structure found near the chlorine cylinder, fitting perfectly with the markings on the cylinder. This further confirmed the chlorine cylinder had been dropped from the air, not placed at the scene as some had alleged. In all fairness man, I don't think its that obvious. After reading Bellingcat's analysis I'm inclined to agree with you. But the leaked OPCW report is also compelling, my big issue with it is that I can not find any evidence it is genuine, nor that it is faked. People don't trust the news anymore, and for good reasons. Maybe I'm just an especially gullible person, but before reading Bellingcat's analysis I was under the impression the perpetrator was inconclusive. The silver lining in all of this, is that the American people said hell no to a war with Syria. And hopefully we can do the same thing with Iran.
|
|
#
?
May 15, 2019 18:00
|
|
|
It's worth reading the GPPi's study on the use of chemical weapons in Syria, it gives a lot more context to why they're used and who is using them, something that's usually lost when the focus is on individual incidents: https://www.gppi.net/2019/02/17/the-logic-of-chemical-weapons-use-in-syria Also, one thing to keep in mind about the OPCW FFM is their remit is to confirm CW was likely used, then another group is responsible for establishing the perpetrators, so they will never say who was responsible. After Russia vetoed the renewal of the OPCW UN JIM the states parties at the OPCW voted to give the OPCW power to create a body to place blame, but with all that going on, the time it has taken to create the new body, plus the backlog of incidents they have to investigate, I expect it'll be months, if not 1 year plus before they publish a conclusion on Douma.
|
|
#
?
May 15, 2019 18:08
|
|
|
I'm just letting you know that the chemical weapons denialism makes you look pretty dumb in a thread full of people who've been monitoring this conflict for years.
|
|
#
?
May 15, 2019 18:10
|
|
|
Gunthen posted:The silver lining in all of this, is that the American people said hell no to a war with Syria. And hopefully we can do the same thing with Iran.
|
|
#
?
May 15, 2019 18:11
|
|
|
Rent-A-Cop posted:Uh, did you miss when the US invaded Syria? Because it totally did, and is still there. No I meant when the US didn't start a full scale war with the intent of removing Assad.
|
|
#
?
May 15, 2019 18:13
|
|
|
The thing is you can't just do a simple airstrikes to eliminate the Iranian nuclear program or even materially damage it. Attacking Iran which has a functional airforce and air defense network with hardened target installations hundreds of miles inland is a lot different than dunking on Libya and Syria in the middle of a civil war.
|
|
#
?
May 15, 2019 20:44
|
|
|
Sinteres posted:https://twitter.com/Elizabeth_McLau/status/1128402047127171072 British reaction: https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1128629678967808000
|
|
#
?
May 15, 2019 21:06
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 27, 2024 15:46 |
|
|
Pretty funny when Netanyahu has to say hey wait a minute, I only like pretending I want to go to war with Iran. https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1128764201856655361 Realtalk, I think a status quo US policy of containment when it comes to Iran is clearly good for Israel, because it gets everyone on the same page when it comes to Iran being public enemy number one, but if the US actually removed Iran as a nuisance to them and the Sunni states in the region, the Sunni states would likely realize they don't have nearly the same incentive to cooperate with Israel anymore. US pressure (and Israeli military superiority) could still keep things from exploding into violence, but presumably you'd at least see more calls for solidarity with the Palestinians again, which have faded considerably in recent years. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 22:06 on May 15, 2019 |
|
#
?
May 15, 2019 22:00
|
|