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Tab8715 posted:Why haven't Israeli and Saudi Arabia been able to stop Iran? It seems the three countries are on a collision course and there's so much bad history there's little anyone is able to do to stop it. I'd be careful not to pin too much credit on "bad history". The three countries are the major powers in their region, so they're rivals fighting for economic and political influence in the region. They're fighting for dominance over the Middle East and its immediate surroundings, and they'd still be doing that even without the historical and cultural touchpoints between them. It's just petty feuding and power games between regional powers.
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Jun 17, 2019 21:32
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Main Paineframe posted:It's just petty feuding and power games between regional powers.
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Jun 17, 2019 21:37
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OhFunny posted:https://m.jpost.com/Middle-East/Iran-News/UN-officials-US-is-planning-a-tactical-assault-in-Iran-592832 Again, this story credits Maariv. Are they actually credible? The Jerusalem Post seems to be the only ones reporting this
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Jun 17, 2019 21:42
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OhFunny posted:https://m.jpost.com/Middle-East/Iran-News/UN-officials-US-is-planning-a-tactical-assault-in-Iran-592832 Ack! Alright, these are the threats I’ve been waiting for. Really hope this doesn’t amount to anything and this report is just Bolton leaking bs in the hopes of making it happen for real. Is so stupid.
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Jun 17, 2019 21:44
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Lol at all the Bolsheviks denouncing the NYT as the fox news of print for its lack of ideological purity. I bet the paper you read is super interesting! Israeli media hasn't been credible since the 90s at least, Haaretz aside.
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Jun 17, 2019 21:49
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Rent-A-Cop posted:And two of those states have dualistic paramilitary/paragovernmental power structures that have their own agendas independent of the "state" just to make things more complicated. and one of them is a monarchy, complete with all the feuding minor sons who don't stand to inherit you could hope to want a competent ruler can keep most of them in line but as the continued apocalyptic shitshow in Yemen demonstrates MBS could gently caress up reheating a pizza.
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Jun 17, 2019 21:50
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Unimpressed posted:Lol at all the Bolsheviks denouncing the NYT as the fox news of print for its lack of ideological purity. I bet the paper you read is super interesting! https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/01/opinion/contributors/venezuela-us-hands-off-joanna-hausmann.html look at this beautiful piece of work by a totally uninterested venezuelan-american comedian, on why we simply MUST give Elliot Abrams some boots on the ground to topple the tyrant Maduro
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Jun 17, 2019 21:52
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Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/01/opinion/contributors/venezuela-us-hands-off-joanna-hausmann.html https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/30/opinion/erik-prince-contractors-afghanistan.html look at this steady take from a subject matter expert, on why he should be viceroy of the East India Tea Company But With An American Flag On It (The Opium Production Ratios Will Stay About The Same)
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Jun 17, 2019 21:54
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Willo567 posted:Again, this story credits Maariv. Are they actually credible? The Jerusalem Post seems to be the only ones reporting this I know nothing about Maariv but if the US is going to attack Iran it makes sense it would coordinate with Israel. JP is pretty straight laced and boring, if they are reporting it it at least means there are Israelis who think an attack is plausible or are seriously trying to pressure USA into an attack now. Given the rest of the world is totally against escalation, diplomatic action might be a good sign. Nobody besides Israel and Saudi are going to back America in an attack. I read somewhere even the UAE seems to be against escalating, probably because in the event of a conflict they are very exposed to Iranian reprisals
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Jun 17, 2019 21:54
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Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/30/opinion/erik-prince-contractors-afghanistan.html https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/14/opinion/iran-oil-tanker-attack.html look at this marvellous piece of reasoned discussion, of why we must block out the sky with our missiles, because the perfidious Iranian continues to draw breath in a most provocative fashion. sorry, man. the NYT has an office line on American wars of choice, and that office line is an unconditional "gently caress YEAH WE DOING THIS"
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Jun 17, 2019 21:55
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Iran announced today that by June 27 it will officially be in violation of the 2015 nuclear agreement. Only the US withdrew which means technically Iran is still beholden to it. By crossing this line it basically forces the other parties to the agreement to restart sanctions it whatever. Sigh. That deal was an impressive piece of diplomacy, it's such a shame to see it trashed for no good reason.
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Jun 17, 2019 22:10
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Unimpressed posted:Bolsheviks
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Jun 17, 2019 22:12
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Rent-A-Cop posted:And two of those states have dualistic paramilitary/paragovernmental power structures that have their own agendas independent of the "state" just to make things more complicated. which two 
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Jun 17, 2019 22:13
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Count Roland posted:Retaliates in some overt way. Too much prestige to be lost by just eating an unprovoked* attack. Tanker War 2 seems like a bad move to me. The first one ended in Iran's entire surface navy getting sunk and trying it again seems like a good way to allow US forces to amass enough firepower in the region to crush Iranian capabilities.
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Jun 17, 2019 22:17
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Well Iran eats poo poo in any shooting scenario, but that doesn't mean they won't try it.
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Jun 17, 2019 22:23
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Count Roland posted:Iran announced today that by June 27 it will officially be in violation of the 2015 nuclear agreement. Only the US withdrew which means technically Iran is still beholden to it. By crossing this line it basically forces the other parties to the agreement to restart sanctions it whatever.
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Jun 17, 2019 22:36
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Count Roland posted:Well Iran eats poo poo in any shooting scenario, but that doesn't mean they won't try it. Iran eats poo poo then the entire world economy eats poo poo after they shut down the straits of Hormuz. Iran isn't in a good position, but they can exert some really extreme leverage if so forced. It's why they've been such an ideological foe for so long yet remain largely untouched.
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Jun 17, 2019 22:40
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Iran eats poo poo then the entire world economy eats poo poo after they shut down the straits of Hormuz. Iran isn't in a good position, but they can exert some really extreme leverage if so forced. It's why they've been such an ideological foe for so long yet remain largely untouched. No. See the Tanker Wars mentioned above. Iran can gently caress around in the Gulf and disrupt shipping, but the US hits them real hard in response. Also, as the US is now a huge hydrocarbon producer thanks to fracking, it's a lot less vulnerable to price spikes, embargoes and the like compared to the 70s. Iran can cause a lot of trouble, but closing the strait shouldn't be viewed as some trump card. It's just another strategy, with it's own pros and cons.
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Jun 17, 2019 22:51
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https://twitter.com/DefenseBaron/status/1140739638371524610 https://twitter.com/DefenseBaron/status/1140741002744999940 https://twitter.com/DefenseBaron/status/1140741375719288832 https://twitter.com/DefenseBaron/status/1140741452147937280 Bias note: This reported participated in the DoD's DES program before joining Defense One.
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Jun 17, 2019 23:38
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Chef Boyardeez Nuts posted:https://twitter.com/DefenseBaron/status/1140739638371524610 These are totally the slides they showed to Trump because he can only understand pictures.
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Jun 17, 2019 23:43
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Has an official body said they were conducting an investigation?
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Jun 17, 2019 23:43
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If Bellingcat helps the EU with their independent investigation of this (sucessfully), does that mean that Brown Moses helped avert a major war?
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Jun 17, 2019 23:54
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lol, by their own timeline the perfidious Persians weren't spotted in the area until almost 2 hours after the first explosion.
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Jun 17, 2019 23:58
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Grouchio posted:If Bellingcat helps the EU with their independent investigation of this (sucessfully), does that mean that Brown Moses helped avert a major war? it means that Bellingcat, as a tool of the international deep state, preserved Pax Americana by preventing the US from entering a disastrous and costly war
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Jun 17, 2019 23:59
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quote:Acting Secretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan announced Monday that President Donald Trump's administration will send a thousand troops to the Middle East amid increased tensions with Iran. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/military/u-s-sending-1-000-troops-middle-east-amid-heightened-n1018556 1000 is a paltry number, but still, this means something.
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Jun 18, 2019 00:21
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Count Roland posted:https://www.nbcnews.com/news/military/u-s-sending-1-000-troops-middle-east-amid-heightened-n1018556 Likely 1000 to gauge american ms interest/disinterest in the region
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Jun 18, 2019 00:33
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Grouchio posted:If Bellingcat helps the EU with their independent investigation of this (sucessfully), does that mean that Brown Moses helped avert a major war? What, and give up the untold millions they stand to make by fomenting a war?
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Jun 18, 2019 02:07
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Flavahbeast posted:it means that Bellingcat, as a tool of the international deep state, preserved Pax Americana by preventing the US from entering a disastrous and costly war  truly, that eliot higgins is a genius at both international intrigue and homosexual pornography
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Jun 18, 2019 02:34
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Count Roland posted:No. See the Tanker Wars mentioned above. Iran can gently caress around in the Gulf and disrupt shipping, but the US hits them real hard in response. That's still a whole third of entire petrol supply for the entire world. Even if it wasn't as bad as the 70s how would folks react to $5/Gallon not to mention that'll hurt the rest of the economy which is entirely dependent on low energy prices.
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Jun 18, 2019 03:09
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Tab8715 posted:That's still a whole third of entire petrol supply for the entire world. Doubtful the us will ever see $5 gallon unless the BOMBS FALL
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Jun 18, 2019 04:13
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$5 gas would mean the tar sand rush starts back up again and would probably be the greatest economic news american workers have heard in half a century. Ecological news would be... less good, but the upshot of that at least is Middle East wars would stop when it becomes inhospitable to all but extremophile microbes.
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Jun 18, 2019 04:34
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Flavahbeast posted:it means that Bellingcat, as a tool of the international deep state, preserved Pax Americana by preventing the US from entering a disastrous and costly war 
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Jun 18, 2019 04:50
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Tab8715 posted:That's still a whole third of entire petrol supply for the entire world. Something like 70's prices/shortages would be catastrophic. The amount of sprawl and suburbia in America today is several orders of magnitude more than it was in the 70's. The average 2019 American has to drive a farcical amount of mileage to get to work, let alone run any errands or procure even basic necessities. The current logistics chain that makes America functional is so complex, fragile, and based on cheap fossil fuels for more than just cars. Take for instance that the invention of Air Conditioning/Central Cooling. The economic growth of the Southeast and Southwest that started after the 70's is in large part due to widespread AC making those areas livable. That power is maintained by cheap fuel and the second it falters armies of pasty white folk are going to be moving north in such numbers it will look like a refugee crisis. The next big problem is food. People literally couldn't feed themselves in the large city I'm from without a car because the grocery stores are too far to reach on foot, and there's no mass transit that could ever take up the slack. You'd see a situation where huge swathes of America become ghost towns like an apocalypse happened and large amounts of middle-class suburbanites effectively become refugees because there will be no place with enough room to take them. Remember that once one thing that needs oil fails, everything after it follows in a chain reaction. If the food trucks don't move, no grocery store is supplied. If you requisition gas for the trucks, now no one can fuel their car to get to the grocery store. And trying to make up the shortfall by using the other 2/3rds to the world supply won't work fast enough. Firstly because since the global oil market is so intertwined and based on the illogical panic driven stock market, any disruption will cause the price of all oil regardless of origin to act as if it's in the same "pool". Second, all those other oil countries will want to make as much bank on this sellers market as possible, and you're too desperate for any oil you can get to say no. If you decide to invade them rather than pay the new price, then you missed the point this situation was caused by thinking you could steal oil by invading countries in the first place. You'd be making the problem worse. Not to mention our military runs on, you guessed it, oil.
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Jun 18, 2019 04:55
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Agreed, What’s most ironic is that Trump supporters (rural and suburban communities) would be hurt the most. How much does the US have in Petrol Reserves?
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Jun 18, 2019 05:16
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Tab8715 posted:Agreed, Thanks to shale fracking, more than Saudi Arabia and/or Iran as long as crude is trading north of around $80/bbl, preferably more.
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Jun 18, 2019 06:05
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One of Trump's first actions was (to try) to sell half of the strategic reserve. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Trump-To-Sell-Half-The-Strategic-Petroleum-Reserve.html https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-23/trump-proposes-selling-off-half-the-u-s-strategic-oil-reserve Don't know what happened.
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Jun 18, 2019 06:05
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guidoanselmi posted:One of Trump's first actions was (to try) to sell half of the strategic reserve. This actually raises a significant distinction: the US Strategic Reserve, versus the reserves that are located within the US that corporations decline to extract because right now they're money-losing ventures. There is a TON of oil in the USA being squatted upon for the moment. Guidoanselmi notes a significant transfer from the former column to the latter: https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/energy/2018/02/13/us-mandates-biggest-non-emergency-strategic-oil-sell-off/332885002/ quote:The budget deal that the U.S. Congress passed and President Donald Trump signed into law last Friday calls for selling 100 million barrels of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) by 2027 to help fund the government.
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Jun 18, 2019 06:23
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Good thread. https://twitter.com/mosaaberizing/status/1140731063007875073
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Jun 18, 2019 08:44
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I used open source journalism techniques (forum search) and found out that this is a fake. I'm pretty sure. Not 100% (forum search is poo poo).
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Jun 18, 2019 09:57
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I think the nasty arguement over one's preferrence of Egyptian dictatorship (Sisi or Morsi) that I had a few months ago, revolved around my dissapointment of Morsi and then fear of what he and the Brotherhood would do in terms of foreign policy (Yom Kippur 2.0, Suez embargo, that sort of thing) back in 2013. I think my main mistake was pinning Morsi as the center figure of the (salafist) Brotherhood, and thinking that Sisi was the protagonist of that fight considering it was mostly liberal voters who wanted his aid.
Grouchio fucked around with this message at 10:57 on Jun 18, 2019 |
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Jun 18, 2019 10:51
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