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Cerebral Bore posted:
It was all over the news for a while https://www.apnews.com/ef3b036949174a9b98d785129a93428b
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Jul 30, 2019 20:32
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Yeah, they say they got something, but what exactly did they get?
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Jul 30, 2019 20:37
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Cerebral Bore posted:Yeah, they say they got something, but what exactly did they get? It's been a while, but I think they took over some webcams and actually watched the Russians hack in realtime. Google could tell you more
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Jul 30, 2019 20:40
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Yep that's where they found out the two hackers "Cozy Bear";and "Fancy Bear" was really a team of Russian SVR. Later other intelligence linked the DNC hack directly to Putin ordering it.
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Jul 30, 2019 21:02
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I take it that all this evidence has been made publicly available and subject to independent verification, or?
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Jul 30, 2019 21:17
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Yeah there were images in the news. You can take 2 seconds to check this out.
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Jul 30, 2019 21:34
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Cerebral Bore posted:You first, buddy. What evidence has or could change your mind? Sorry, bub, buddy, chum, sweetiepie, but my argumentation style doesn't rely on "hey you can't cite that person I cited as a trusted source, he's not trustworthy."
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Jul 30, 2019 21:38
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Angry_Ed posted:Most of the evidence for the Russia stuff came from the Dutch, would you like to try again? The Dutch provided evidence of Russian hacking, they did not provide evidence of Trump conspiring with Putin to do it. This is another example of the lazy motte-and-bailey defense being used to paper over the shaky evidence supporting the collusion narrative.
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Jul 30, 2019 21:40
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Somfin posted:Sorry, bub, buddy, chum, sweetiepie, but my argumentation style doesn't rely on "hey you can't cite that person I cited as a trusted source, he's not trustworthy." No, your argumentation style seems to rely on dodging questions. Badly, I might add.
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Jul 30, 2019 21:41
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Hell I'll answer it. Examples of evidence that could change my mind:
Examples of evidence that isn't good enough to change my mind:
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Jul 30, 2019 21:53
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In any case, at the end of the day we shouldn't necessarily trust Mueller given that he's a Republican cop and all that, but no matter how much we choose to trust him, we should trust the utter rubes that were taken in by this man and basically spent two years worshiping the ground he walks on even less.
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Jul 30, 2019 22:24
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Since I feel like most of the people citing Dutch Intelligence are coming off as though they are actually particularly familiar with that story, lets unpack exactly what happened. According to reporters relying on anonymous sources, the Dutch intelligence agents from AIVD claim to have been monitoring a room on the Moscow State University Campus starting in 2014. Mostly they followed cyber traffic but they also claim to have gained access to a security camera watching the entrance. After monitoring this room for a while they claim that they identified that they were viewing the activities of a hacking team that used the malware that cyber security experts have dubbed Advanced Persistent Threat 29, aka APT 29, or as CrowdStrike dubbed them "Cozy Bear". They also claim that while most of the people in the room were private citizens they were able to identify some Russian intelligence agents from the SVR based on their faces. Supposedly the Dutch warned the FBI and then NSA about a spear-fishing attack on a state department official in 2014 which lead to an extended duel in cyberspace between the FBI and the hackers, with the Dutch giving real time assistance to the Americans that eventually allowed them to thwart the attack. In 2015 the AIVD team detected another spear-fishing attack, this time targeting a number of think tanks as well as the DNC. AIVD passed along a warning to NSA, who alerted the FBI, who in turn warned the DNC. The DNC was slow to take action but in late April 2016 they had their security firm CrowdStrike investigated. Around this time the Dutch say they lost their ability to monitor the Moscow State University Room's cyber activity and also lost access to its camera. CrowdStrike claims that the DNC was accessed by two completely separate groups, APT 29 aka "Cozy Bear" and APT 28 which they dubbed "Fancy Bear". CrowdStrike describes these attacks as completely separate and unrelated to each other. (CrowdStrike is seeminglyinconsistent here. On the one hand they claim the trade craft of APT 28 and APT 29 was so sophisticated that it implied nation state level resources and yet they identified Guccifer 2.0 as being part of this operation based on extremely basic errors such as including cyrillic metadata in his documents. While this isn't a literal contradiction it does raise questions: these hackers are somehow ultra sophisticated but laughing inept, at the same time, depending on what argument is being made). Further, APT 29's malware was in the wild by this point, which makes the already shaky attempts at cyber attribution even sketchier. CrowdStrike has independently has a history of loving up its cyber attributions. More significantly, CrowdStrike never gave the FBI access to the DNC servers. Everything here is based on their word, and they are representing their client the DNC not serving the public interest. Now there are discrepancies with this story that aren't fatal but still weird but for now lets just focus on the main narrative because its been raised in this thread repeatedly. Assuming we take everything here at face value (and again, this is all based on anonymous sources from an intelligence agency that is no doubt ever bit as eager to increase its budget and prestige as every other intelligence agency) what we have is evidence that a Russian hacking collective that has some contacts with the SVR may have performed a spear-fishing attack on the DNC in 2015. Assuming they did (and cyber attribution is not nearly as precise as all these stories imply, something I'd like to discuss after this post) then that would be... very unremarkable. Because as it turns out Chinese, Russian, American and unidentified hackers do this kind of fishing expeditions all the time. Keep in mind that going by CrowdStrike's own report multiple unassociated hackers accessed the DNC servers at different times. The Dutch story does not actually provide any specific evidence for the DNC hack narrative. Taken at face value it helps establish that Russian hackers with some government associations were regularly trying to (and often succeeding) break into the servers of various think tanks and political parties - something all the major powers do, especially to their great power rivals. We can safely expect that Russia would have been doing this kind of stuff regardless, just as the US does regularly. And to emphasize again: this all assumes that the cyber attributions we are being given are even legit to begin with, which is no small assumption. Now combine everything I've said with the following: Associated Press posted:A recent AP investigation found that all but one of the two dozen or so officials whose emails were published in the run-up to the 2016 election were targeted by Fancy Bear, which cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike said operated independently from Cozy Bear. So actually the majority of the concerning attacks that are supposedly "proven" to be from Russia thanks to Dutch Intelligence actually come from an unrelated but also supposedly Russian affiliated group. A group that according to Crowd Strike operated totally independently. There are so many layers of removal in this story between the original source and what gets reported, and so much reliance on anonymous sources, that even when taken at face value it really doesn't tell us anything we didn't already know. Which of course won't stop people from just taking on faith - without checking for themselves - that the Dutch "proved" that the Russiagate narrative is somehow totally real. My point here is not to claim there's some obvious narrative that any intelligent person can instantly see is the truth. This poo poo is confusing and in almost every case you have to dig through multiple links to find the original sources of various claims, and you're also often stuck choosing between dueling experts. But the one thing any honest person should admit is that the Dutch angle just isn't the definitive proof people in this thread want it to be. Not even close. And the fact that people are so quick to cite this story while clearly not actually being familiar with the details is incredibly damning. BrandorKP posted:Yep that's where they found out the two hackers "Cozy Bear";and "Fancy Bear" was really a team of Russian SVR. Later other intelligence linked the DNC hack directly to Putin ordering it. No the story detailed in de Volkskrant only concerns APT 29 "Cozy Bear". APT 28 "Fancy Bear" wasn't implicated and is also not thought to be associated with the SVR. In fact the entire logic behind CrowdStrike claiming that they were both working for Russian intelligence and yet seemingly unaware of each other is that APT 28 was associated with the GRU rather than the SVR. BrandorKP posted:Yeah there were images in the news. You can take 2 seconds to check this out. Isn't it funny how the news story you are telling other people to google doesn't actually claim what you think it does?
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Jul 30, 2019 22:26
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Cerebral Bore posted:You first, buddy. What evidence has or could change your mind? Cerebral Bore posted:No, your argumentation style seems to rely on dodging questions. Badly, I might add.  Again, I've got no need to answer this because I don't twist evidential trustworthiness to fit what I need for that sentence of my argument. VitalSigns posted:"Well if you think Mueller always lies, and he says he couldn't prove collusion, then by opposite day rules that must mean he proved it all!" This isn't what I was saying and you know that. Why do you insist that it is?
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Jul 30, 2019 22:42
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Somfin posted:This isn't what I was saying and you know that. Why do you insist that it is? It's essentially the same fallacy as what you are saying yes, just more humorously stated. You're saying that if Helsing takes the word of a man with a grain of salt when that man is motivated to find evidence of national security threats that justify the budget and power and wide mandate to violate civil liberties given to the organization he spent his life building up, then if that man admits he can't prove the allegations he's making that we should distrust that too. But that's not how it works. When someone who is motivated to believe X says X we should be skeptical without solid evidence other than his word to back it up. Because claiming X is in his self-interest. On the other hand if someone motivated to believe X admits that there's not enough evidence for X, that's a pretty good indicator that he really didn't find any, because admitting not-X isn't in his self-interest. When the CIA and the Bush administration said that Saddam was building a nuclear weapon, they were just slinging bullshit, they were either lying or catastrophically wrong. Then after the war when they investigated and their own report said "ok yeah it was all bullshit sorry", it would be ridiculous to dismiss that report on the grounds that the CIA is untrustworthy and continue to believe in WMD. VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 23:19 on Jul 30, 2019 |
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Jul 30, 2019 23:10
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VitalSigns posted:"sorry" Pretty sure you can absolutely disbelieve this part right here, being seen as recalcitrant is very much in the intererest of any organisation that's having to put out a "we hosed up real bad"  But, it feels like you're reading what's being said in this thread in a pretty generous and forgiving manner if you think that the self-interest argument maps to what is being taken as correct / incorrect. Especially since we're apparently unironically swinging for "the evidence is sound but uh well lots of countries do it so why are we focusing on this one" now.
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Jul 30, 2019 23:54
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Somfin posted:
Nope the evidence of collusion is not sound, we're retreating back to the bailey "the Russians tried to hack the DNC" since we can't defend the motte of "because Trump conspired with Putin to steal it from the most qualified candidate ever"
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Jul 31, 2019 00:02
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VitalSigns posted:"the most qualified candidate ever" Little barbs like this one are inaccurate, irrelevant and a clear attempt to move the discussion to something you find safer. Please stop throwing them in, they make you look stupid and obsessed.
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Jul 31, 2019 00:05
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Can you ever address a point or is your strategy just to find something to whine about in every post so you can ignore it. Follow-up question: if you have to resort to this deflection to sustain your position isn't that a blazing neon sign to you that your position is unsound, it would be to me
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Jul 31, 2019 00:13
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Somfin definitely knows something about looking stupid:Somfin posted:Yeah the report is being suppressed and concealed for no reason and it's actually a good thing to not investigate problems because if the investigator isn't a pure angel then there's no way their investigation could find anything accurate
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Jul 31, 2019 00:25
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Helsing posted:Somfin definitely knows something about looking stupid: Which is why we have access to the full, unredacted report right now? E: VitalSigns posted:Can you ever address a point or is your strategy just to find something to whine about in every post so you can ignore it. There wasn't anything else in your post worth replying to with the way you were characterising things. Somfin fucked around with this message at 00:38 on Jul 31, 2019 |
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Jul 31, 2019 00:34
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Somfin posted:Which is why we have access to the full, unredacted report right now? Release the long form birth certificate
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Jul 31, 2019 00:44
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VitalSigns posted:Release the long form birth certificate Do you think this is a good comparison?
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Jul 31, 2019 00:46
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Somfin posted:Do you think this is a good comparison? you would think after the mueller hearing where absolutely nothing worthwhile came out, you guys would stop clinging to "proof of collusion is definitely being hidden from us in the redacted parts of the report!!"
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Jul 31, 2019 00:56
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Somfin posted:Do you think this is a good comparison? Well you tell me. Is there any evidence (or lack thereof) that could potentially change your mind, or will there always be somewhere else for the secret evidence of collusion to hide
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Jul 31, 2019 02:12
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VitalSigns posted:Well you tell me. Is there any evidence (or lack thereof) that could potentially change your mind, or will there always be somewhere else for the secret evidence of collusion to hide I'm mostly interested in it because Trump decided to swing the big hammer and prevent it from being released. E: And you'll recall I'm mostly bringing this up because someone decided to mock me for saying it was suppressed when this is about as explicit as suppression gets. Somfin fucked around with this message at 02:32 on Jul 31, 2019 |
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Jul 31, 2019 02:29
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Somfin posted:I'm mostly interested in it because Trump decided to swing the big hammer and prevent it from being released. IT IS FREE FOR DOWNLOAD AND STILL THE BESTSELLING NONFICTION BOOK OF 2019 Somfin posted:And you'll recall I'm mostly bringing this up because someone decided to mock me for saying it was suppressed when this is about as explicit as suppression gets. NO, SUPPRESSION GETS A LOT MORE EXPLICIT THAN THIS. OFTEN SUPPRESSION ACTUALLY SUPPRESSES, TOO.
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Jul 31, 2019 08:15
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Willie Tomg posted:IT IS FREE FOR DOWNLOAD AND STILL THE BESTSELLING NONFICTION BOOK OF 2019 The unredacted version. Thought that would be clear from context, but, y'know. Whatever. Have fun with the thread. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jul 31, 2019 11:39
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Somfin posted:The unredacted version. Thought that would be clear from context, but, y'know. Whatever. Have fun with the thread. The special counsel signed off on the drat redactions! They've enumerated the four general categories of redaction! Its not like they found the loving crimes and then hid the crimes so the public wouldn't get mad! I swear to god like NYT op-editors claim someone being chippy on twitter makes them nazis, seeing the incredible bullshit that masquerades as thought in the liberal mind is giving me that push into a full on Maoism with American characteristics. I'm running out of solutions that aren't struggle sessions and reeducation through labor.
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Jul 31, 2019 17:39
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Two of the categories are sentences relating to ongoing investigation, and grand jury proceedings. Such as: the poo poo Chelsea Manning is still being jailed for, indefinitely, without trial. Her fines are up to $1000 a day behind this boomer microwaved cold war monkeyshow. We're 17 House turncoats away from Ted Cruz sailing a bill that outright criminalizes dissent through congress and the SCOTUS and voter suppression, intraparty quashing of grassroots candidates, and gerrymandering are tacitly expected where they are not outright the law of the land thanks to court precedents. Russia threw up some incredibly low effort spam and phished a few passwords but the actual structural threats to democracy--much like our invariably nazi-adjacent mass shooters--are entirely domestic. You don't want thought. You don't give a gently caress about struggle. Yall don't even much care for politics as a study that I can discern. I am mystified what that kind of person even gets out of a forum like this. 
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Jul 31, 2019 18:00
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In another fun development we're already seeing Trump's allies in the media claiming that China is mobilizing to prevent his re-election, so much like how "Fake News" was hatched by Democrats but then metastasized into a right-wing trope, get ready to watch the Republicans re-purpose the foreign subversion scaremongering and deploy it way more effectively than the Democrats. The media has already identified how profitable it is to play up stories about foreign subversion so they will doubtless give plenty of air time to these allegations and since the Democrats intentionally recruit the worst candidates possible you'll probably end up with a bunch of Democrats who realize its more to their personal advantage to lean into the story and a bunch of Representatives or maybe even some senators that the DNC spent lavishly to get elected will immediately start going on the news and saying we need to rally around the flag and support our President and our Constitution against the Chinese. And some lib will be
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Jul 31, 2019 18:32
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conspiracies used to be fun and colourful. there were lizards dressed up as the queen of england shooting kennedy and poo poo. now it's just people trying to convince me that jake tapper is a prophet who will lead us to the golden tapes.
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Jul 31, 2019 21:54
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Willie Tomg posted:The special counsel signed off on the drat redactions! They've enumerated the four general categories of redaction! Its not like they found the loving crimes and then hid the crimes so the public wouldn't get mad! No it is that, the public isn't ready to see the tapes of Trump and Putin drinking adrenochrome straight from children's veins while peeing on hookers. That's why it's falls to us, the Anons, to interpret Mueller's coded messages and prepare the public to accept the incredible truths that will be revealed in the unredacted report.
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Aug 1, 2019 00:58
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finally some solid evidence that trump is a russian asset has surfaced https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1156621424246894595?s=20 this must've been one of the redacted items in the mueller report
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Aug 1, 2019 14:32
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BrandorKP posted:[Snip] I'd really like to hang out with you in meatspace sometime.
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Aug 1, 2019 18:30
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Uglycat my handler wanted me to tell you that you may have temporarily foiled our plans in South Bend but you, Mayor Peter and your scrappy band of anarchist freedom fighter will never defeat the motherland, muwahahahaha.
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Aug 1, 2019 18:49
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Helsing posted:Uglycat my handler wanted me to tell you that you may have temporarily foiled our plans in South Bend but you, Mayor Peter and your scrappy band of anarchist freedom fighter
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Aug 1, 2019 19:57
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Helsing posted:In another fun development we're already seeing Trump's allies in the media claiming that China is mobilizing to prevent his re-election, so much like how "Fake News" was hatched by Democrats but then metastasized into a right-wing trope, get ready to watch the Republicans re-purpose the foreign subversion scaremongering and deploy it way more effectively than the Democrats. The media has already identified how profitable it is to play up stories about foreign subversion so they will doubtless give plenty of air time to these allegations and since the Democrats intentionally recruit the worst candidates possible you'll probably end up with a bunch of Democrats who realize its more to their personal advantage to lean into the story and a bunch of Representatives or maybe even some senators that the DNC spent lavishly to get elected will immediately start going on the news and saying we need to rally around the flag and support our President and our Constitution against the Chinese. The sad but amusing part is how we warned liberals that the republicans (who have been embracing neofascism openly for three years now) would inevitably repurpose this xenophobic strategy in a much more focused and belligerent way in the near future. It’s going to be pretty loving funny watching America blame the Chinese for alleged 2020 election interference when they literally just bought the majority of trade ports in the Mediterranean Sea, including Athens, Greece - you know, the cradle of western civilization. The fate of the Uyghur Muslim population in China right now is a preview for the rest of us.
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Aug 1, 2019 21:23
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tylersayten posted:The sad but amusing part is how we warned liberals that the republicans (who have been embracing neofascism openly for three years now) Are you a zoomer or do you seriously not remember what it was like after 9-11?
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Aug 2, 2019 03:15
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Uglycat posted:I'd really like to hang out with you in meatspace sometime. I would too. There are several people in this thread I'd have a beer with.
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Aug 2, 2019 19:23
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Willie Tomg posted:Are you a zoomer or do you seriously not remember what it was like after 9-11? I meant in the context of the Trump Presidency. The overwhelming majority of mainstream liberals and pundits will still tell you Bush II and Cheney were moderates. gently caress, most liberals today still insist republicans are moderates except for the Trump Administration.
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Aug 2, 2019 19:37
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