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goddamnedtwisto posted:The reason for this offer from Corbyn is concern over the purdah rules meaning it's basically impossible for the Government to ask for an A50 extension even if they were minded to once this happens. The unknowable is what the EU can (or are willing) to do in that time - the assumption until quite recently is that they could unilaterally extend A50 but according to some the Withdrawal Bill wording makes that impossible? I'm pretty sure the nature of international treaties in general and this EU treaty in particular makes it completely impossible for the EU to unilaterally extend anything. I'm also pretty sure that because of this impossibility they also don't want to gently caress around with it in any way since the EU kinda, you know, likes international treaties and abiding by them and all that. e: goldarn a snipe. well, ok: Brexit - easy as 1-2-3
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Aug 16, 2019 00:02
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Sanitary Naptime posted:Yeah that’s p much right on the money. They’re making themselves seem a bigger deal than they really are. The Lib Dems are using the fact that the media hate Labour to try to seem like an integral part of the political machine. When they're actually more of a vestigial tail. Their ideal scenario is that a vote for a caretaker government led by Corbyn fails, because Labour MPs hate Corbyn, while a vote for a caretaker government led by someone Swinson supports fails by an order of magnitude more because there's no consensus among Westminster parties and isn't that just so sad?
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Aug 16, 2019 00:05
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wocobob posted:Question on the "gaining the confidence of the House" thing. Say Corbyn loses a confidence vote by a few tens of votes, and the Commons has to vote on a replacement or accept stalemate/a Boris GE. In that case, the lost votes would come from Tories/centrist Labour/Lib Dems. If they vote on an empty suit replacement (say Chuka or something lol), the whipping of votes would be on the entire Labour Party instead, not the Lib Dems/the most centrist parts of both main parties. Wouldn't there be far more Corbyn loyalists in the whole Labour party for the centrists to win over than there are centrists for Labour to win over? Wouldn't that mean that whoever's Jo Swinson's preference is would actually almost certainly lose by more? Yeah exactly. If the leader of the opposition can't command a majority, some random other person stands no chance whatsoever. Corbyn is unpopular with some of Labour's MPs, but nowhere near enough that a majority of them would rather have someone else. Just paste Jo Swinson's face on this dude basically: 
Bardeh fucked around with this message at 00:15 on Aug 16, 2019 |
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Aug 16, 2019 00:11
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Am I right in that if two weeks pass from the first vote of no confidence passing and no government is formed, we get an election?
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Aug 16, 2019 00:13
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Necrothatcher posted:My Ryanair flight today was 3 hours and 5 minutes late to land, so thanks to UNELECTED EUROCRATS I get €250 compensation. Take that O'Leary. Really? thought it was 4 hours? Also in my experience dont spend the money if youre tight, itll take 6 months to get it.
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Aug 16, 2019 00:15
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ShaneMacGowansTeeth posted:Am I right in that if two weeks pass from the first vote of no confidence passing and no government is formed, we get an election? Yes, but those purdah rules mean that parliament can't legislate during that period, which is why we need the interim government led by Corbyn to extend A50 to prevent No Deal.
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Aug 16, 2019 00:24
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Ok so second question. Say a VONC passes mid-September. There's a two week period of no government, nobody commands a majority, general election gets triggered. If I'm remembering right, isn't there a fixed length to GE campaigns, like 5 weeks or something? So if the VONC passes/GE gets triggered too late, wouldn't the election necessarily have to be after 10/31? Also, what's the stuff I've been hearing about Boris somehow gaming the election timing to force it to be after 10/31 anyway?
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Aug 16, 2019 00:24
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I'm back. Politics is good again. Looking forward to PM Corbyn in September/October, and enacting the return of the Soviet Union like that bit of the Simpsons.
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Aug 16, 2019 00:27
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jabby posted:https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1162125866643705857 Yeah, even my Corbynsceptic parents have been grudgingly admitting that at the very least he's the first and probably best shot, and they're almost as scornful of the Lib Dems as we are ITT. Corbyn's played a blinder here, all the papers are either showing he's the main game in town or just ignoring him on the front page entirely, no real way to spin it as anything else.
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Aug 16, 2019 00:33
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wocobob posted:Ok so second question. Say a VONC passes mid-September. There's a two week period of no government, nobody commands a majority, general election gets triggered. If I'm remembering right, isn't there a fixed length to GE campaigns, like 5 weeks or something? So if the VONC passes/GE gets triggered too late, wouldn't the election necessarily have to be after 10/31? Corbyn might fail to get a majority initially but I'd be very surprised if he fails to get one at all, at that point it'll essentially be Corbyn or No Deal (with the BBC carrying that message because they love to dumb complicated issues down to make them sound simple) and there are at least 2 or 3 Lib Dems/CUKs/remainer Tories with enough awareness that voting for No Deal will kill their careers stone loving dead (OK maybe not the CUKs since they're dead in the water already).
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Aug 16, 2019 00:35
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happyhippy posted:Sensible talk now please. And set up revolutionary headquarters in the telephone exchange.
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Aug 16, 2019 00:37
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wocobob posted:Ok so second question. Say a VONC passes mid-September. There's a two week period of no government, nobody commands a majority, general election gets triggered. If I'm remembering right, isn't there a fixed length to GE campaigns, like 5 weeks or something? So if the VONC passes/GE gets triggered too late, wouldn't the election necessarily have to be after 10/31? You answer your own question. If a VONC passes but no alternative government is formed then Boris will be forced to call an election. BUT he'll be under no obligation to extend Article 50 before doing so, meaning we'll crash out at some point during the election campaign. That's why poo poo is beginning to hit the fan, because everyone who wants to prevent No Deal is starting to see the reality that putting Corbyn in charge is the only way to avoid it.
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Aug 16, 2019 00:38
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I'm suddenly reminded that Corbyn said the VONC would be coming when Boris least expected it and, well, he was right.
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Aug 16, 2019 00:49
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How so?
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Aug 16, 2019 00:51
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It's been just long enough that people forgot about it, pretty much.
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Aug 16, 2019 00:52
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 Interestingly enough, the bookies still think No Deal is less likely than not. Bardeh fucked around with this message at 00:58 on Aug 16, 2019 |
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Aug 16, 2019 00:56
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Bardeh posted:
Not by much though, that's like a 60/40 split if I remember how to read those stupid odd numbers correctly
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Aug 16, 2019 00:58
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I have no idea what any of that means but I know the bookies do not want a no deal brexit. The starving masses eating all the horses is bad for their business.
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Aug 16, 2019 01:01
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I mean how likely is it that Corbyn actually pulls this off? Would the process be Corbyn puts vote of no confidence Assuming that gets up, holds a vote for him to be pm If that happens (even if it fails as long as the numbers get up in 14 days) then he is pm He holds a vote to extend brexit deadline He holds a vote for a GE saying if labor win you get a second referendum? How likely are all of these things to happen? What would the Tories even campaign on in this? “Vote for us and we will get a deal that we didn’t do in the years we already have?” In a side note is Johnson’s team even negotiating a deal with the eu right now? The langauge is always “we want a deal but will go no deal if we have to” but there seems to be no sign of anything really happening?
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Aug 16, 2019 01:01
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This whole thing's like Bastani was saying earlier - the general public don't really know many politicians, so if there's some alliance that overthrows the government to frustrate brexit, and it's led by someone people don't recognise, it's gonna look like the most antidemocratic stitchup possible. Even if it's Ken Clarke, the narrative is that Boris and the Tories are on one side (brexit, democracy) and everyone else - including Labour - are against it So the best chance for credibility is for the actual leader of the Opposition, who everyone basically knows by now, takes charge. It's also the best chance for Labour to look like they're doing the right thing. Which is why Jo Swinson (who def cares about having a candidate with solid majority backing) is just throwing out random names, or just whoever, hey maybe Jeremy has some suggestions of his own?? They're just desperately trying to derail Labour at this point
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Aug 16, 2019 01:04
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teacup posted:In a side note is Johnson’s team even negotiating a deal with the eu right now? The langauge is always “we want a deal but will go no deal if we have to” but there seems to be no sign of anything really happening? the line right now is that "the EU need to compromise with us" which is loving stupid because the deal is the compromise, that's what the negotiation is naturally the media are sucking him off calling him a strong leader who's standing up to those evil European bullycrats they want No Deal and they're going to blame the EU for not compromising enough if it happens
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Aug 16, 2019 01:07
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The lib dems proper clegged themselves today.
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Aug 16, 2019 01:08
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NotJustANumber99 posted:The lib dems proper clegged themselves today. Nah this is just a media loss. A true clegging would be a ++Humiliation
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Aug 16, 2019 01:12
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humiliation_for_loser_clegg.jpg
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Aug 16, 2019 01:31
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I can't wait to see precisely how everyone manages to gently caress up the last chance to not screw ourselves completely I hope civilisation still exists in a hundred years so historians can pick apart this clusterfuck in minute detail and laugh at us. It's what we deserve
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Aug 16, 2019 01:33
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Johnson has not even talked to any European leader, iirc. It took him over a week to even have a phone call with Varadkar. He's literally doing nothing.
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Aug 16, 2019 01:35
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NotJustANumber99 posted:The lib dems proper clegged themselves today. Funny you should mention that: 
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Aug 16, 2019 01:39
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Bardeh posted:
Always remember that apart from ultra-long-odds specials or at the very first moment they offer the bet, bookies don't "think" anything - odds reflect the bets that have been received to that point. Also remember that politics odds are almost inevitably even worse predictors of the future than horse racing odds (or political polls).
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Aug 16, 2019 01:46
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jaete posted:I'm pretty sure the nature of international treaties in general and this EU treaty in particular makes it completely impossible for the EU to unilaterally extend anything. I'm also pretty sure that because of this impossibility they also don't want to gently caress around with it in any way since the EU kinda, you know, likes international treaties and abiding by them and all that. Yes, but the thinking until relatively recently was apparently that if an election campaign was ongoing a unilateral extension would be possible. Sorry for the vagueness, I'm paraphrasing something I read in a tweet I now can't find.
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Aug 16, 2019 01:48
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I've gone out and had a few beers. Had fun, chatted with a person who has apparently been interested in me for a bit, but now isn't so much. They are really cool, but I don't want to push things. I am so tired. Hope everyone is well Love Josef.
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Aug 16, 2019 02:05
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pablo gbscobar posted:Funny you should mention that: amazing
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Aug 16, 2019 02:15
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People are finally realizing the only thing the lib dems care about is private property and every other policy is just window dressing? Fabulous. Corbyn is a political genius.
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Aug 16, 2019 04:41
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Chuka Umana posted:People are finally realizing the only thing the lib dems care about is private property and every other policy is just window dressing? Fabulous. I'm quite honestly not sure they even care about that at this point, I'm starting to think their true, core principle is simply to make the Lib Dems as hated and unelectable as possible.
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Aug 16, 2019 04:49
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Ms Adequate posted:I'm quite honestly not sure they even care about that at this point, I'm starting to think their true, core principle is simply to make the Lib Dems as hated and unelectable as possible. It's been clear for ages what the core principle of the Lib Dems is, though. It's: 
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Aug 16, 2019 05:05
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Demiurge4 posted:Man its so surreal reading this thread and the poo poo you post from twitter. What IS it that has the entirety of the political establishment so loving terrified of this polite old granddad? I don't even think its his policies at this point, there has to be something loving earth shattering secret he'd have access to as PM they don't want him near. A Very British Coup
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Aug 16, 2019 07:04
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Interested to see if the Lib Dem’s can somehow gently caress up today worse than yesterday 
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Aug 16, 2019 07:05
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Demiurge4 posted:Man its so surreal reading this thread and the poo poo you post from twitter. What IS it that has the entirety of the political establishment so loving terrified of this polite old granddad? I don't even think its his policies at this point, there has to be something loving earth shattering secret he'd have access to as PM they don't want him near. You're right! We all know the secret too, and know just why they're afraid of him. (It's that capitalism is bad)
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Aug 16, 2019 07:06
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teacup posted:What would the Tories even campaign on in this? “Vote for us and we will get a deal that we didn’t do in the years we already have?” It's what the Brexit Party says that matters. Brexiters might not have many options.
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Aug 16, 2019 07:55
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I can't read the article because  at registering for the Telegraph website, but:https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1162248277644832769 
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Aug 16, 2019 07:59
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pablo gbscobar posted:Funny you should mention that: same as it ever was
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Aug 16, 2019 08:12
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