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BrokenGameboy posted:I'm not an expert, but I wonder if looking at things from a Luxembourgist perspective would be helpful. For instance, China - - and I bet eventually other countries - - investment and market expansion into Africa is part of capital's need to expand into new markets. If it holds true, then I don't know what places are left for expansion into after Africa. That's the beauty of global warming, by the time we're done with Africa we'll be able to expand into sunny Antarctica!
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Aug 29, 2019 18:36
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BrokenGameboy posted:I'm not an expert, but I wonder if looking at things from a Luxembourgist perspective would be helpful. For instance, China - - and I bet eventually other countries - - investment and market expansion into Africa is part of capital's need to expand into new markets. If it holds true, then I don't know what places are left for expansion into after Africa. Cuba, Venezuela, Bhutan.
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Aug 29, 2019 18:42
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But are those places even big enough to sustain it? Africa is whole continent, and Cuba's just an island, and Bhutan is super tiny, relatively spanking.
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Aug 29, 2019 18:47
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If you compare the relative populations of US+EU, Africa, and China, there's absolutely no way even Africa as a whole continent could possibly do for the emerging Chinese middle-class what Chinese workers have done for Western consumers.
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Aug 29, 2019 18:50
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BrokenGameboy posted:But are those places even big enough to sustain it? Africa is whole continent, and Cuba's just an island, and Bhutan is super tiny, relatively spanking. No the Capitalism expansion has saturated the globe. That's why 2 forms of capitalism and different classes are going at each other.
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Aug 29, 2019 18:57
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Bob le Moche posted:Let me guess, you were also unconditionally supporting the anti-Lula protests in Brazil and accusing anyone who tried to warn you about the eventual outcome of being a "tankie"? What truly matters is if the boot has a stick on tattoo of a red star on it or not. This fig leaf is important to hide one's shameful urge to lick.
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Aug 29, 2019 19:01
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I’m guilty of this, but maybe ignoring the tankie morons rather than engaging with the “state repression is Good, Actually” crew is the better course of action. It’s not like they represent any real viable political tendency in the West anyway, even Sanders came out in support of the protests.
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Aug 29, 2019 19:32
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Bob le Moche posted:If you compare the relative populations of US+EU, Africa, and China, there's absolutely no way even Africa as a whole continent could possibly do for the emerging Chinese middle-class what Chinese workers have done for Western consumers. This is basically the entire point, eventually there is a limit and when it hits that limit bad things happen which hopefully leads to good things.
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Aug 29, 2019 19:36
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sincx posted:Prepared to have your phone and laptop searched going into and out of HK at land borders, especially if you are a young male. If you're going to HK for a day trip from Guangzhou, consider bringing a burner phone. I'm travelling directly to HK from the US tomorrow, not visiting mainland China (maybe Macau though). Do you think there will be similar inspections?
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Aug 29, 2019 19:38
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Raenir Salazar posted:This is basically the entire point, eventually there is a limit and when it hits that limit bad things happen which hopefully leads to good things. that's the revised leninist hypothesis, anyway. it's academic, though; the environment cannot sustain that level of consumption at any level of technology which we will possess in the foreseeable future. e. i've lurked this thread a while, because i know very little about china. i do know a bit about lenin, though, so i waded in - i'm realising that this was a bit of a derail and i'll stop doing it now V. Illych L. fucked around with this message at 19:50 on Aug 29, 2019 |
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Aug 29, 2019 19:47
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I don't remember which China thread discussed Jimmy "Far Murdoch" Lai, here is his interview with CNN Business CNN posted:"I don't know where (the protests are) going to end," Lai says, "but one thing I know, with the world watching over us ... I think Trump, the US, cannot back off (from supporting Hong Kong) now. They can only go further and further. Not financially, but politically and morally." I will give him credit to say it out loud. I wonder how much of his money and properties are still in HK.
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Aug 29, 2019 20:04
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V. Illych L. posted:that's the revised leninist hypothesis, anyway. it's academic, though; the environment cannot sustain that level of consumption at any level of technology which we will possess in the foreseeable future. Although, there are albeit ~scifi~ options, which is why we're finally seeing private companies starting to look at space travel with serious interest despite its high capital cost and long term pay offs. Environmental degradation and resource depletion means that maybe its time to look at outer space, asteroids, and Mars, as locations for exploitation. Ideally we probably at some point do want this because it would let us outsource all of our industry to space and we can just let most of the world be reclaimed by nature while the population moves to massive arcologies attached to space elevators. It's why I'm excited for Chinese developments in space travel because them getting to Mars before the US would probably precipitate a new renewed Manhatten Project level of effort into space again by the government and possible recapture back some of private capitals expansion in that sector.
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Aug 29, 2019 20:11
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Raenir Salazar posted:Although, there are albeit ~scifi~ options, which is why we're finally seeing private companies starting to look at space travel with serious interest despite its high capital cost and long term pay offs. Environmental degradation and resource depletion means that maybe its time to look at outer space, asteroids, and Mars, as locations for exploitation. This strikes me as overly optimistic.
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Aug 29, 2019 20:13
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Silver2195 posted:This strikes me as overly optimistic. It's a forums post? I can be as pie in the sky as I want.
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Aug 29, 2019 20:14
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I just don't get how you can be a leftist and look at the increasingly hypercapitalist government with an ever expanding list of billionaires in key government positions and think "This is the government we need to support to further socialism". Even if it was a fight between two sets of rich folks "Both sides suck I'm staying out of this one" is also a valid answer without cheering for the state run by authoritarian billionaires. I dunno. There's been dueling pro and anti HK protest protests in my city and the one thing that really stood out to me was a big chunk of the pro-PRC protest was literally convoys of Lamborghinis and Porches driving circuits carrying PRC flags. The ultra-rich where I live seem to be falling on one side of things and it ain't the pro-Hong Kong side. Mr Luxury Yacht fucked around with this message at 21:00 on Aug 29, 2019 |
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Aug 29, 2019 20:45
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sincx fucked around with this message at 05:44 on Mar 23, 2021 |
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Aug 29, 2019 21:37
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Does the CCP already know that Trump lied to them about softening tariffs?
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Aug 29, 2019 21:52
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Every Chinese thinktank type video I have watched said it's better to take on the trade war sooner rather than later, bigger rather than smaller.
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Aug 29, 2019 22:38
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tino posted:Every Chinese thinktank type video I have watched said it's better to take on the trade war sooner rather than later, bigger rather than smaller. It's wildly in their interest to get a tradewar going that gets Trump's batshit instability out sooner rather than deal with it for the next 5 years
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Aug 29, 2019 23:00
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It's not hard to read the CCP because you can reliably ask yourself "what is the worst, most self-defeating thing that they could do in this scenario" and you'll almost certainly have a picture of what the CCP will do. So yeah I can definitely see them doubling down on their trade policy due to a combination of believing their own propaganda and completely misreading foreign sentiment. It definitely wouldn't be the first time.
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Aug 29, 2019 23:14
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Herstory Begins Now posted:It's wildly in their interest to get a tradewar going that gets Trump's batshit instability out sooner rather than deal with it for the next 5 years yea Xi isn't in any pressing danger and Trump has an election coming up, there's no (political) downside to letting things get buck wild if you're China and then cooling stuff off when there's a new administration who's probably less obviously senile and stupid.
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Aug 29, 2019 23:34
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sexpig by night posted:yea Xi isn't in any pressing danger and Trump has an election coming up, there's no (political) downside to letting things get buck wild if you're China and then cooling stuff off when there's a new administration who's probably less obviously senile and stupid. I can think of lots of downsides to letting things get buck wild if I'm China independent of the fact that Xi doesn't face elections, and if they think that Trump is the sole reason and cause of their problems and that once he's gone it'll be business as usual then they are completely and utterly delusional.
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Aug 29, 2019 23:37
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sexpig by night posted:yea Xi isn't in any pressing danger and Trump has an election coming up, there's no (political) downside to letting things get buck wild if you're China and then cooling stuff off when there's a new administration who's probably less obviously senile and stupid. Every major candidate from the DEM sides are just as senile but probably can hire smart people.
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Aug 29, 2019 23:42
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^^^Pretty much yea, I should say 'as senile but won't hire their idiot slumlord son in law to handle everything at least?'Fojar38 posted:I can think of lots of downsides to letting things get buck wild if I'm China independent of the fact that Xi doesn't face elections, and if they think that Trump is the sole reason and cause of their problems and that once he's gone it'll be business as usual then they are completely and utterly delusional. I mean, it won't be great for them but the simple fact is in a year and a half means a lot more to trump's future than Xi's and I don't think Xi's government has much higher priorities than that. Plus I'm sure the calculus of 'alright so we both eat a poo poo sandwich for a while and then we'll make some overtures to the new boss to fix the damage' isn't that wrong. None of the candidates in the dem primary are China hardliners. It's for sure shooting your own foot but I just don't think the Chinese government sees any real longterm danger in taking the hit.
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Aug 29, 2019 23:43
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The truth is that trade with China isn't really a campaign issue and I don't think any Dem candidate has been actively pro-trade with China when pressed on it. This is because China has a really poo poo reputation among the US electorate and frankly the electorate of most developed countries in general. If China thinks that they'll be able to "suck up to the new boss" after the election and get their way then they are, as I said, delusional. Albeit delusional in a consistent way because they have never really been able to read foreign sentiment beyond the handful of VIP's they target for influence which is one of the reasons they keep getting caught off guard when they get hit with international backlash.
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Aug 29, 2019 23:48
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I am absolutely baffled at when we got to an attempt to delineate Imperialism versus lowercase-i imperialism. But I'm less baffled at what predictable group is managing to take the side of both capitalist billionaires AND imperialist police states at the same time.
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Aug 30, 2019 00:14
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China's basically fine with a year of unrest if it gets rid of Trump. 5.5 more years of Trump trade war bullshit is losing a ton of people a ton of money on every side and is a lot more instability than Xi or China actually want to weather. The only reason the trade war poo poo isn't currently a campaign issue is because we aren't at the trump vs everyone else stage of campaigning. Even isolationists aren't going to advocate to sabotage trade with their two biggest trading partners (trump tried the same poo poo with mexico, ffs). Outside of Trump literally no one is arguing in defense of sabotaging trade with china
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Aug 30, 2019 00:20
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Usually the argument goes "We should confront China with our allies" which would be even worse for China. There are a few Democratic hopefuls that are saying "We should confront China but we shouldn't use tariffs" but if they get the nomination they are going to be pressed hard on what alternative they suggest that isn't continuing what hasn't worked for decades and they are 100% going to pivot in this case because being labeled as pro-China or pro-Trade With China is a kiss of death in 2020 Odds are they'll do their best to not get into the specifics of the trade war vis a vis China because China is super duper unpopular among the electorate and it's a bad idea to go after Trump on it. My point is, the CCP hoping for a different President that will get them out of this pickle as their main strategy would show just how hosed they are because that is a hail mary. Fojar38 fucked around with this message at 00:27 on Aug 30, 2019 |
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Aug 30, 2019 00:25
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Engage the trade war now is equivalent of drawing team US to charge up the hill before any reinforcement come in. Also devaluing the yuan is basically subsidizing the new tariff of the exporting industries with more expensive imports, which will increased the price of middle-class consumer goods and the energy market. While in the US, low-income families will bear most of the burdens of the tariff. Also the farmers, they are righteously hosed.
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Aug 30, 2019 00:45
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Clearly this is all showmanship for the true endgame of the administrative deep state, which is to weaken the US enough that its entry into a North American Union can become feasable and the Amero is instituted!!! Wake up sheeple!!!
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Aug 30, 2019 01:36
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I think it would be odd for China to decide "nows the time, GET IM'!". Everything about their policy goals seems to be risk adverse, trying to avoid something that could cause unrest. A trade war is not good for them; but a lot of their legitimacy is based on standing up for China's interest and standing in the world; and many of Trump's demands are objectively ridiculous. I don't think it's unreasonable for the Chinese to realize they don't have a lot of good options and that the best they can do is try to ride things out in the short time until a more reliable and stable US trading partner emerges that will negotiate in good faith; even if said partner, i.e perhaps the Democrats takes in principle a even stronger and more coherent China engagement strategy, i.e a continuation of Obama's Asian pivot and continues efforts to tackle legitimate issues with Sino-US trade relations. But at least it would be based on objective reality and any deal reached would be adhered to; and a deal that is more of a disadvantage but at least they will keep their word is better than getting a good deal out of a liar.
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Aug 30, 2019 01:50
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Devaluing the Yuan also accelerates the already rapid capital flight out of China and makes China an unattractive place to invest no matter what the outcome of the 2020 election is. And again, there is no way we see a return to "engagement" with China. Being perceived as soft on China is a huge liability in the current political climate and if, say, Biden wins the nomination his past advocacy of an engagement strategy is going to be a massive albatross on his neck that he is going to have to actively shed by being overtly tough on China. The CCP has painted themselves into a corner because as the Chinese economy declines they have had to switch to nationalism as their chief legitimizing force and nationalism is a fickle and double edged force that has drastically limited their ability to maneuver to the point that they find themselves on the trajectory of a pariah state. Fojar38 fucked around with this message at 01:54 on Aug 30, 2019 |
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Aug 30, 2019 01:51
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I don't think you've ever been correct in your predictions and I'm not about to put stock into it now.
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Aug 30, 2019 01:52
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Raenir Salazar posted:I don't think you've ever been correct in your predictions and I'm not about to put stock into it now. I dunno my broad prediction of "China will not rule the world and in fact seems set for severe problems for the foreseeable future" seems to be pretty prescient atm
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Aug 30, 2019 01:55
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The trade war is inevitable, the Chinese leadership came to that conclusion a lot earlier than the US diplomatic Corp, which happened around the end of Obama admin. If the trade war is in medium to large scale, it could result in the end of globalized market and split it into 2, 3 trade zones.
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Aug 30, 2019 01:56
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Fojar38 posted:I dunno my broad prediction of "China will not rule the world and in fact seems set for severe problems for the foreseeable future" seems to be pretty prescient atm Wow the goalposts have moved so fast and so far it broke the laws of physics.
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Aug 30, 2019 01:57
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Raenir Salazar posted:I don't think you've ever been correct in your predictions and I'm not about to put stock into it now. Quick! Someone do the grover war-prediction schtick, except it's Grovar38 on the PRC-Trump trade war.
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Aug 30, 2019 01:57
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tino posted:The trade war is inevitable, the Chinese leadership came to that conclusion a lot earlier than the US diplomatic Corp, which happened around the end of Obama admin. I mean most international trade is already within localized trade areas and the idea of a globalized market has always been somewhat overblown in that sense, particularly when globalization in terms of capital is mostly trans-Atlantic + Japan.
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Aug 30, 2019 01:58
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Raenir Salazar posted:Wow the goalposts have moved so fast and so far it broke the laws of physics. Where did the goalposts shift from because I get the feeling that Raenir Salazar posted:I don't think you've ever been correct in your predictions and I'm not about to put stock into it now. was not intended to be a good faith argument.
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Aug 30, 2019 01:59
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Fojar38 posted:
I think you are overestimating the importance of public opinion in this confrontation. "Engagement" with China has a huge of support in the United States. It's the Koch network, big ag exporters, Apple, Tesla, and every other industry that either imports or exports into China. They write the checks that fund Presidential campaigns and they're going to want to hear promises from candidates that they aren't going to gently caress up business. Notice that the wider Republican political class has still not embraced the trade war. Koch people are right now giving fiery speeches in which they promise not to give one cent to anyone supporting tariffs. This wasn't enough to sway Trump's opinion in the last election so it may not amount to anything next year, but these groups have real sway equal or greater than the foreign policy or military wonks
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Aug 30, 2019 03:24
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