August 2019 Current Events Thread: It's Hot and Everything Sucks

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Internet VFW > August 2019 Current Events Thread: It's Hot and Everything Sucks

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egyptian rat race: Jul 13, 2007; Lowtax Spine Fund 2019; Ultra Carp

FAUXTON posted:

It should also be noted that models have fairly good agreement on landfall being south of maralago, which puts it on the mean side of the storm.

The rational side of me says even if it gets flattened, Cheeto Benito will get an insurance payout for 2-3x the actual value of the property. If it's not insured due to being built on sand at sea level or whatever, his tax alchemists will stitch a fat business loss onto 2019. Or both.

I refuse to believe he loves a physical person or object anywhere near as much as himself

# ? Aug 30, 2019 12:52

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? Jun 7, 2024 01:57

pmchem: Jan 22, 2010

watch him use taxpayer money to completely renovate it

# ? Aug 30, 2019 12:55

Flying_Crab: Apr 12, 2002

FAUXTON posted:

look I ain't about to start believing in prayer but uh drat

Where is Mar a Lago

# ? Aug 30, 2019 13:23

Wingnut Ninja: Jan 11, 2003; Mostly Harmless

Flying_Crab posted:

Where is Mar a Lago

On the previous page.

FAUXTON posted:

15.22 miles south of the current forecast point of landfall.

# ? Aug 30, 2019 13:25

Flying_Crab: Apr 12, 2002

Wingnut Ninja posted:

On the previous page.

# ? Aug 30, 2019 13:26

psydude: Apr 1, 2008

Lmao. Trump cancelled his trip to Poland. I wonder why.

# ? Aug 30, 2019 13:35

FAUXTON: Jun 2, 2005; spero che tu stia bene

egyptian rat race posted:

The rational side of me says even if it gets flattened, Cheeto Benito will get an insurance payout for 2-3x the actual value of the property. If it's not insured due to being built on sand at sea level or whatever, his tax alchemists will stitch a fat business loss onto 2019. Or both.

I refuse to believe he loves a physical person or object anywhere near as much as himself

Well it's ~500 feet from the water in either direction and built on what's basically a sandbar. Wave action and storm surge will likely erode huge parts of the beach before washing out roads over a large area, and ultimately creating channeled inlets right across those barrier islands.

Having never been to maralago but having been to other parts of the FL east coast, I know there's usually a vegetation-anchored sand dune a couple hundred feet off the water. Whether Donald bulldozed that for the view is something I don't know, but if he did, and that dune picks back up on either side of the property, it's going to be a place where a storm surge likely creates a channel. The sea will rush in, funneled by the dunes on either side, scouring out A1A and the underlying sand and gravel, and creating a washout/inlet/channel probably 10-15 feet deep. It'll continue onward right through maralago and connect to the intracoastal(?) on the inland side.

The wind, at 140mph, will easily pull roof tiles off. If those are actual terracotta and not some sculpted facade, it'll come apart like dominoes falling. I don't doubt the roofs are held on with to-code hurricane bracing but those heavy-rear end tiles getting blown around at speed might knock holes in the roof. It'll certainly gently caress windows up at those speeds. Hurricane-resistant glass might hold at 100-110mph but beyond that you start having to deal with the whole pane being blown in, or out if the building geometry creates a suck. Palm fronds become huge fletched spears, roofing tiles become cannonballs, etc. All this goes down independent of any debris the water shoves in, such as a boat. If this storm lands 20 miles south of maralago it stands a solid chance of irretrievably destroying the property (as in needing to be demo'd and rebuilt) with an outlying shot at erasing the land it's built on from the map. Granted they'll rebuild A1A, but they might just make it a bridge or a road-topped seawall there rather than filling in the island to what it was.

Maralago isn't the only rich-rear end-fucker property either. They all have their asses in the wind on this. Roger Stone's house might get washed away, for example.

# ? Aug 30, 2019 13:48

FAUXTON: Jun 2, 2005; spero che tu stia bene

This is what Isabel did to Hatteras Island.

# ? Aug 30, 2019 13:54

Syrian Lannister: Aug 25, 2007; Oh, did I kill him too?
I've been a very busy little man.; Sugartime Jones

FAUXTON posted:

Well it's ~500 feet from the water in either direction and built on what's basically a sandbar. Wave action and storm surge will likely erode huge parts of the beach before washing out roads over a large area, and ultimately creating channeled inlets right across those barrier islands.

Having never been to maralago but having been to other parts of the FL east coast, I know there's usually a vegetation-anchored sand dune a couple hundred feet off the water. Whether Donald bulldozed that for the view is something I don't know, but if he did, and that dune picks back up on either side of the property, it's going to be a place where a storm surge likely creates a channel. The sea will rush in, funneled by the dunes on either side, scouring out A1A and the underlying sand and gravel, and creating a washout/inlet/channel probably 10-15 feet deep. It'll continue onward right through maralago and connect to the intracoastal(?) on the inland side.

The wind, at 140mph, will easily pull roof tiles off. If those are actual terracotta and not some sculpted facade, it'll come apart like dominoes falling. I don't doubt the roofs are held on with to-code hurricane bracing but those heavy-rear end tiles getting blown around at speed might knock holes in the roof. It'll certainly gently caress windows up at those speeds. Hurricane-resistant glass might hold at 100-110mph but beyond that you start having to deal with the whole pane being blown in, or out if the building geometry creates a suck. Palm fronds become huge fletched spears, roofing tiles become cannonballs, etc. All this goes down independent of any debris the water shoves in, such as a boat. If this storm lands 20 miles south of maralago it stands a solid chance of irretrievably destroying the property (as in needing to be demo'd and rebuilt) with an outlying shot at erasing the land it's built on from the map. Granted they'll rebuild A1A, but they might just make it a bridge or a road-topped seawall there rather than filling in the island to what it was.

Maralago isn't the only rich-rear end-fucker property either. They all have their asses in the wind on this. Roger Stone's house might get washed away, for example.

keep going almost there

# ? Aug 30, 2019 14:01

Proud Christian Mom: Dec 20, 2006; READING COMPREHENSION IS HARD

FAUXTON posted:

Maralago isn't the only rich-rear end-fucker property either. They all have their asses in the wind on this. Roger Stone's house might get washed away, for example.

Inshallah

# ? Aug 30, 2019 14:02

Milo and POTUS: Sep 3, 2017; I will not shut up about the Mighty Morphin Power Rangers. I talk about them all the time and work them into every conversation I have. I built a shrine in my room for the yellow one who died because sadly no one noticed because she died around 9/11. Wanna see it?

pmchem posted:

watch him use taxpayer money to completely renovate it

It's this

# ? Aug 30, 2019 14:07

Crab Dad: Dec 28, 2002; behold i have tempered and refined thee, but not as silver; as CRAB

Milo and POTUS posted:

It's this

Yup. However if that doesn�t create a mountain of evidence for insurance fraud I�d be surprised.

# ? Aug 30, 2019 14:16

FAUXTON: Jun 2, 2005; spero che tu stia bene

LingcodKilla posted:

Yup. However if that doesn’t create a mountain of evidence for insurance fraud I’d be surprised.

He did it in a prior hurricane and nobody said poo poo.

# ? Aug 30, 2019 14:21

Duzzy Funlop: Jan 13, 2010; Hi there, would you like to try some spicy products?

FAUXTON posted:

15.22 miles south of the current forecast point of landfall.

Uh...something with great destructive force is landing at Juno Beach...?

# ? Aug 30, 2019 14:35

FAUXTON: Jun 2, 2005; spero che tu stia bene

Duzzy Funlop posted:

Uh...something with great destructive force is landing at Juno Beach...?

yeah history rhymes with itself nazis and all

# ? Aug 30, 2019 14:43

Milo and POTUS: Sep 3, 2017; I will not shut up about the Mighty Morphin Power Rangers. I talk about them all the time and work them into every conversation I have. I built a shrine in my room for the yellow one who died because sadly no one noticed because she died around 9/11. Wanna see it?

And the shore is just crawling with nazis!

# ? Aug 30, 2019 14:46

golden bubble: Jun 3, 2011; yospos

Don't get so caught up at the exact location of landfall. It's still fairly far out, and there isn't a true model consensus yet. There are still models for Dorian going south through Florida, models for cutting straight up Florida, and models for driving up the entire eastern Florida, Georgia, SCarolina coast.

# ? Aug 30, 2019 14:51

FAUXTON: Jun 2, 2005; spero che tu stia bene

quote:

000 WTNT45 KNHC 300854 TCDAT5
Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
AL052019 500 AM AST Fri Aug 30 2019

There hasn't been a lot of new data since the Hurricane Hunter planes departed Dorian several hours ago. The convective pattern on infrared satellite imagery has been nearly steady state, although the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB rose to T5.0/90 kt. These estimates, combined with the earlier aircraft data, support maintaining an initial intensity of 90 kt.

Dorian's heading is very gradually turning toward the left, with the latest estimate northwestward, or 320 degrees at 10 kt. Dorian is now being steered between a mid-tropospheric high centered near Bermuda and a mid-/upper-level low located over the Bahamas. The high is expected to expand westward, with a blocking ridge becoming established over the western Atlantic during the next several days. With the exception of COAMPS-TC and HMON, the other reliable models are in excellent agreement through day 3, with Dorian turning westward south of the ridge and moving near or over the northernmost islands in the Bahamas Sunday and Monday. After day 3, steering currents collapse as a break develops in the ridge, and Dorian will likely slow down considerably as it approaches the Florida peninsula. There is more spread among the deterministic models and their ensemble members during that time, with disagreement on exactly when and where Dorian will turn northwestward and northward on days 4 and 5. That being said, the tracks of the simple and corrected consensus models on this cycle did not warrant much change to the official NHC forecast, with perhaps just a slight southward adjustment on days 3 and 4. The biggest concern will be Dorian's slow motion when it is near Florida, placing some areas of the state at an increasing risk of a prolonged, drawn-out event of strong winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall.

The upper-level low to the west of Dorian continues to impart some southwesterly shear over the hurricane, which has prevented it from strengthening rapidly. However, Dorian is expected to enter a more favorable upper-level environment during the next 24 hours, which should allow its structure to become more well developed. Although overall the environment ahead of the storm appears conducive for strengthening, some models (in particular the ECMWF) suggest that some northerly shear could come into play while Dorian moves through the northwestern Bahamas, and for that reason the NHC official intensity forecast is not quite as bullish as the HCCA, Florida State Superensemble, and HWRF models. Still, Dorian is forecast to become a dangerous major hurricane later and maintain that status as it heads for the northwestern Bahamas and the Florida peninsula.

Key Messages:

1. A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the northwestern Bahamas, where the risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds this weekend has continued to increase. Residents should begin to execute their hurricane plans and listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

2. There is an increasing likelihood of a prolonged period of hazardous weather conditions that could last for a couple of days in parts of Florida early next week.

3. The risk of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the Florida east coast has increased, although it is too soon to determine where the highest storm surge will occur. The risk of devastating hurricane-force winds along the Florida east coast and peninsula early next week has also increased, although it is too soon to determine where the strongest winds will occur. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

4. Regardless of the exact track of Dorian, heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern United States this weekend and into the middle of next week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 23.8N 69.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 24.8N 70.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 31/0600Z 25.6N 72.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 31/1800Z 26.1N 73.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 26.4N 75.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 26.7N 78.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 26.9N 80.1W 115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND 120H 04/0600Z 28.1N 81.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND

$$ Forecaster Berg

I prefer the forecast discussion against spaghetti maps because the weather scientists know what model is strong where and which are more likely to be accurate reads of conditions rather than ones which are weak in modeling stuff like the bermuda high.

# ? Aug 30, 2019 15:08

Icon Of Sin: Dec 26, 2008

Christ, it�s another Florence type hurricane. Florence was only a cat1 when it landed, but it dropped 2ft of rain on N.C. because it decided to hang out for nearly a week straight. Someone there died because he cleaning his yard after the storm, and he happened to have a cut on his leg when he stepped in some of the water; it got massively infected to the point the docs amputated it to try and save him, but the infection had already spread and dude died.

e: stay the gently caress out of floodwater, everyone.

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nc/charlotte/news/2018/09/26/wilmington-man-dies-from-infection-sustained-during-florence

# ? Aug 30, 2019 15:26

dubzee: Oct 23, 2008

FAUXTON posted:

Maralago isn't the only rich-rear end-fucker property either. They all have their asses in the wind on this. Roger Stone's house might get washed away, for example.

I lived in PBC for a few years and drove between Lake Worth and Boca M to F. A1A contains such an absurd amount of $$$$ on that lovely little strip of reclaimed land. Like, I watched folks flying S to Miami every weekday kinda money. The dude that lived across from where I worked has a stable of 18 Ferraris. Wierdly enough he was one of the few cool people I met in the bougie part of the county.

If you want an idea of the kind of money I'm talking bout, zoom in on the highlighted sandbar and realize those folks own everything from the waterway to the beach. Some of them have their own tunnels under A1A so they don't have to cross the street! Don't try to walk/swim up to those beaches, they are private. An "underwater archeological preserve".

# ? Aug 30, 2019 16:19

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

I'd like to see the very rich get hosed over without having to lose awesome barrier islands and stuff :smith:

# ? Aug 30, 2019 16:24

Stultus Maximus: Dec 21, 2009; USPOL May

mlmp08 posted:

I'd like to see the very rich get hosed over without having to lose awesome barrier islands and stuff

Getting wiped out by hurricanes is what barrier islands do.

# ? Aug 30, 2019 16:28

dubzee: Oct 23, 2008

mlmp08 posted:

I'd like to see the very rich get hosed over without having to lose awesome barrier islands and stuff

As a native North Carolinian I gotta say that barrier islands are a thing that moves constantly.

Build your house on the shifting sand. Remediate, sink some ships offshore to disturb the tides, none of it matters in the long run.

# ? Aug 30, 2019 16:31

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

Yeah, I know this intellectually, but it's still hard for me to cheer for all the other collateral fuckery of a Hurricane just because "lol maralago"

# ? Aug 30, 2019 16:34

Harry Potter on Ice: Nov 4, 2006; IF IM NOT BITCHING ABOUT HOW SHITTY MY LIFE IS, REPORT ME FOR MY ACCOUNT HAS BEEN HIJACKED

^^nothing bad will happen to the rich in any way so yea I'm with you

mlmp08 posted:

I'd like to see the very rich get hosed over without having to lose awesome barrier islands and stuff

Real life is like a genie that instead ruins the awesome barrier islands and the rich get richer

# ? Aug 30, 2019 16:38

not caring here: Feb 22, 2012; blazemastah 2 dry 4 u

dubzee posted:

I lived in PBC for a few years and drove between Lake Worth and Boca M to F. A1A contains such an absurd amount of $$$$ on that lovely little strip of reclaimed land. Like, I watched folks flying S to Miami every weekday kinda money. The dude that lived across from where I worked has a stable of 18 Ferraris. Wierdly enough he was one of the few cool people I met in the bougie part of the county.

If you want an idea of the kind of money I'm talking bout, zoom in on the highlighted sandbar and realize those folks own everything from the waterway to the beach. Some of them have their own tunnels under A1A so they don't have to cross the street! Don't try to walk/swim up to those beaches, they are private. An "underwater archeological preserve".

This isn't an exaggeration at all. Like, it can't be overstated just how much money is sitting along A1A.

It's really difficult to even concieve of until you see it.

# ? Aug 30, 2019 16:44

dubzee: Oct 23, 2008

mlmp08 posted:

Yeah, I know this intellectually, but it's still hard for me to cheer for all the other collateral fuckery of a Hurricane just because "lol maralago"

Humans hosed all this land and now it's time for nature to take it back :yaycloud:

# ? Aug 30, 2019 16:50

egyptian rat race: Jul 13, 2007; Lowtax Spine Fund 2019; Ultra Carp

Every Friday the Wall Street Journal has their "Mansion" section. The June 25th edition had a coastline erosion story about the ultra-rich paying millions to move their houses around in order to avoid receding sands. I can't find a way around their lovely paywall on mobile anymore but some couple paid $1.8mil to move their 10,000sqft Nantucket mansion further up the dunes.

The Mansion section is loving hilarious most weeks, and highly recommended if you're in a mood to laugh at extremely first-world problems. Hate your spouse? Build two executive chef kitchens in your New York home so you don't have to run into them. Better yet, build separate apartments under the same roof for the ultimate marriage of convenience. They also had a kids' room remodel that suggested 4-figure pieces of furniture for a loving 9-yr old. Love your kids, but $30,000 for a bedroom would make pottery barn blush.

I love it and hate it.

E: also an entire article dedicated to the couple having second thoughts about buying a vineyard in Italy. Turns out running a working winery is hard work :shrug:

egyptian rat race fucked around with this message at 16:55 on Aug 30, 2019

# ? Aug 30, 2019 16:53

US Berder Patrol: Jul 11, 2006; oorah

Just lol if you think anything will ever happen to turnip other than him making out like a fuckin bandit
Seawater could be shooting into the air out of the holes on the golf course like a water park and the beach could wash away until the shoreline is the front steps of the club and he'll laugh all the way to the (Deutsche)bank

# ? Aug 30, 2019 16:56

Best Friends: Nov 4, 2011

The anticipation of climate change and coups is killing me almost as much as they will. I just want to fast forward instead of watching this all happen in slow motion, get it over with.

# ? Aug 30, 2019 17:01

Proud Christian Mom: Dec 20, 2006; READING COMPREHENSION IS HARD

Hurricanes are basically an insurance windfall for the rich

# ? Aug 30, 2019 17:02

CommieGIR: Aug 22, 2006; The blue glow is a feature, not a bug; Pillbug

Proud Christian Mom posted:

Hurricanes are basically an insurance windfall for the rich

Kind of. That might not work much longer, as most insurance companies are not climate change deniers, and are starting to include stipulations that place heavy caveats on rebuilding near the coasts.

# ? Aug 30, 2019 17:08

EBB: Feb 15, 2005

dubzee posted:

I lived in PBC for a few years and drove between Lake Worth and Boca M to F. A1A contains such an absurd amount of $$$$ on that lovely little strip of reclaimed land. Like, I watched folks flying S to Miami every weekday kinda money. The dude that lived across from where I worked has a stable of 18 Ferraris. Wierdly enough he was one of the few cool people I met in the bougie part of the county.

If you want an idea of the kind of money I'm talking bout, zoom in on the highlighted sandbar and realize those folks own everything from the waterway to the beach. Some of them have their own tunnels under A1A so they don't have to cross the street! Don't try to walk/swim up to those beaches, they are private. An "underwater archeological preserve".

every single one of those houses has a pool i wish the owners would drown in

# ? Aug 30, 2019 17:10

Milo and POTUS: Sep 3, 2017; I will not shut up about the Mighty Morphin Power Rangers. I talk about them all the time and work them into every conversation I have. I built a shrine in my room for the yellow one who died because sadly no one noticed because she died around 9/11. Wanna see it?

dubzee posted:

If you want an idea of the kind of money I'm talking bout, zoom in on the highlighted sandbar and realize those folks own everything from the waterway to the beach. Some of them have their own tunnels under A1A so they don't have to cross the street! Don't try to walk/swim up to those beaches, they are private. An "underwater archeological preserve".

Where do the tunnels exit?

# ? Aug 30, 2019 17:26

dubzee: Oct 23, 2008

At the beach house.

I watched the green one being built. Closed down A1A for a week.

# ? Aug 30, 2019 17:41

Syrian Lannister: Aug 25, 2007; Oh, did I kill him too?
I've been a very busy little man.; Sugartime Jones

Milo and POTUS posted:

Where do the tunnels exit?

Stargates to the lizard people homeworlds

# ? Aug 30, 2019 17:41

EBB: Feb 15, 2005

https://twitter.com/gaileyfrey/status/1167204203879469062?s=20

# ? Aug 30, 2019 17:42

Milo and POTUS: Sep 3, 2017; I will not shut up about the Mighty Morphin Power Rangers. I talk about them all the time and work them into every conversation I have. I built a shrine in my room for the yellow one who died because sadly no one noticed because she died around 9/11. Wanna see it?