|
ok is anyone naive enough to believe that the democrats wouldnt be totally cool with a war with iran if it came to that?
|
#
?
Sep 17, 2019 18:37
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 26, 2024 10:06 |
|
|
Sinteres posted:No, getting away with something once doesn't mean you can just keep escalating and getting away with it, particularly if there are questions about attribution that get resolved after the first time, but it's possible that Iran could get overconfident and make that mistake. True, but what's more brazen than knocking out half of KSA's oil output? The US is kind of in a spot where it has to signal if it's going to protect its ME allies or not. I.e. I think this makes a good point: https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/09/17/this-is-the-moment-that-decides-the-future-of-the-middle-east/ quote:The Iranians—and other opponents of the United States in the region—have every reason to believe that Trump speaks loudly and carries a nonexistent stick. No one wants war, but it is plausible that had the United States retaliated after Iran shot down an American drone, the Iranians might have thought twice about taking a major step like attacking Abqaiq and Khurais. Of course, no policy is risk-free and the dangers of a wider regional conflict are everywhere, but the Iranians (if they were behind the attacks) are testing the entire rationale for U.S. investment in the Middle East over the last 70 years. If Trump does not respond militarily, the United States should just pack up and go home. That's really hawkish, and I'm not a hawk myself. But it makes sense to consider it a crossroads of sorts. The US started the escalation, yes, but it's a back-and-forth, and Iran (possibly?) just played a strong hand. If the US wants to be seen as a good ally they'll either have to escalate or back down by starting negotiations. That goes if it's the Houthis acting independently too. I'd prefer if the US/KSA deescalated and started negotiating, of course.
|
|
#
?
Sep 17, 2019 18:42
|
|
|
Although the US starting a confrontation with Iran and just sitting back twiddling its thumbs as the Saudis get wrecked is kind of darkly humorous
|
|
#
?
Sep 17, 2019 18:47
|
|
|
Helsing posted:Assuming Iran was involved in this, this is an Iranian responses to an American escalation and not the other way around. The United States withdrew from the treaty and has committed acts of war against the Iranian government. Trying to externalize some of the costs of this crisis onto the international community, in particular American allies, is a logical defensive response by the Iranian government. They're effectively demonstrating that any attempt to strangle them with sanctions will generate unpredictable but potentially devastating blowback. Yeah, I agree: Sinteres posted:People talk about how the attack was stupid or suicidal, but the status quo for Iran is pretty loving miserable already with the Gulf States openly waging war on Shia in Yemen, Israel openly bombing their proxies (and Iranians themselves) in Iraq and Syria, and the US enforcing an economic strangehold on Iran itself. They're being pushed, hard, and expecting them to keep taking punishment forever without doing anything in return is crazy. The hosed up part is how the credulous media will act as if Iran decided to wage war on the Saudis in a shocking sneak attack instead of putting it in a context of Israel, the Gulf States and the US already effectively waging a war of sorts against them. That said, Iran's still by far the weaker power, so there's a fine line between demonstrating their capacity to cause pain in a way that deters further aggression/gets the US back to the bargaining table vs convincing the US the time to act is now and going to the negotiating table now in the face of what American media view as Iranian aggression would look like weakness domestically. Iran's strategy of risk taking is rational, but that doesn't mean it'll work out the way they hope, so they have to be careful not to overshoot the mark. RIP Syndrome posted:True, but what's more brazen than knocking out half of KSA's oil output? The US is kind of in a spot where it has to signal if it's going to protect its ME allies or not. I.e. I think this makes a good point: https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/09/17/this-is-the-moment-that-decides-the-future-of-the-middle-east/ It was a brazen attack, but it's still early enough in the cycle of aggression and retaliation for cooler heads to prevail. For now the Saudis themselves don't seem to necessary be beating the war drums, but I don't think things can get much more heated without strikes on Iran itself becoming likely, with all the blowback that could entail, so I hope negotiations do start soon. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 18:56 on Sep 17, 2019 |
|
#
?
Sep 17, 2019 18:53
|
|
|
RIP Syndrome posted:Thinking about this some more. If Iran is behind this attack, directly or indirectly, and there's no real response, couldn't they just keep escalating knowing they'll get away with it? The sanctions are already at maximum, if you believe the US. They could if they are vying for war with the US, some gulf states, SA, and Israel
|
|
#
?
Sep 17, 2019 18:59
|
|
|
Iran figured out that Trump has zero willingness to do anything in the middle east and has been consistently calling all of his bluffs for a while. This is less a bluff call and more of a knife twist, tbh. They're gonna make him look weak again even as he tries to posture like a strike is actually ready to go because people somewhat bought his 'i called them back' story last time. USFP rn is more about how trump feels than anything remotely related to the interests of the US or US allies in the region. Gonna lol if I eat my words and we launch a bombing campaign in 30 minutes, but I highly doubt it. Also Iran probably senses weakness in KSA and that they're on their backfoot after recent setbacks in yemen. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 19:05 on Sep 17, 2019 |
|
#
?
Sep 17, 2019 19:02
|
|
|
RIP Syndrome posted:That's really hawkish, and I'm not a hawk myself. But it makes sense to consider it a crossroads of sorts. Nope, it doesn't. If the US had retaliated, that would just have precipitated the escalation further and faster. Picture yourself in this situation: you're being strangled to death by a bully who's like three times your weight, and who is loudly boasting about how he's gonna strangle anyone who tries to help you. You're pinned and can't do anything much to get out of your situation, however there's this little annoying cheerleader to the bully who's there squeaking "strangle him harder! I hates him!" and you're actually well-placed to kick him in the balls. Do you have any reason, any reason at all, not to kick him in the balls?
|
|
#
?
Sep 17, 2019 19:07
|
|
|
Kanine posted:ok is anyone naive enough to believe that the democrats wouldnt be totally cool with a war with iran if it came to that? Actually, the Democrats would just give Iran whatever they want as demonstrated by B-rock and his peace "deal"
|
|
#
?
Sep 17, 2019 19:20
|
|
|
Cat Mattress posted:Nope, it doesn't. If the US had retaliated, that would just have precipitated the escalation further and faster. This... is extremely hypothetical, but if you're the bully, and your friend is being repeatedly kicked in the balls by a guy you're trying to hold down, would you take steps to make it stop somehow?
|
|
#
?
Sep 17, 2019 19:38
|
|
|
RIP Syndrome posted:This... is extremely hypothetical, but if you're the bully, and your friend is being repeatedly kicked in the balls by a guy you're trying to hold down, would you take steps to make it stop somehow? Let's switch to car analogies.
|
|
#
?
Sep 17, 2019 20:05
|
|
|
Grover's on tv: https://twitter.com/IbrahimAS97/status/1174035642520653824 I think people itt probably underestimate the advantages the US still has over Iran, but the idea that there would be no consequences for sinking their navy seems insane.
|
|
#
?
Sep 17, 2019 20:36
|
|
|
Conspiratiorist posted:Let's switch to car analogies. The key to the analogy is that it was not Iran that carried out the attack
|
|
#
?
Sep 17, 2019 21:12
|
|
|
coathat posted:The key to the analogy is that it was not Iran that carried out the attack I'm genuinely taken aback by how many people are unironically running with the assumption those blast points are too accurate for sand people, be it blaming Iran or a US/Saudi/Israel false flag.
|
|
#
?
Sep 17, 2019 21:17
|
|
|
Conspiratiorist posted:Let's switch to car analogies. “yo we’re right here, we can hear you. FYI we just torched your car in the parking lot. we’re down for whatever.” - the iranians
|
|
#
?
Sep 17, 2019 21:22
|
|
|
DOCTOR ZIMBARDO posted:“yo we’re right here, we can hear you. FYI we just torched your car in the parking lot. we’re down for whatever.” - the iranians This is a more or less accurate statement of Iranian foreign policy wrt the US in the last 6 months and after all the years the US spent torching Iranian cars it's hard to feel bad about it.
|
|
#
?
Sep 17, 2019 21:34
|
|
|
Conspiratiorist posted:Let's switch to car analogies. holy poo poo peeeace
|
|
#
?
Sep 17, 2019 21:53
|
|
|
Saudi leadership must be absolutely making GBS threads their pants right now after seeing demonstrated exactly how vulnerable they are. All the fancy toys in the world ain't worth poo poo if half of your entire economy can be shut down with alibaba, duct tape, and gumption.
|
|
#
?
Sep 17, 2019 22:21
|
|
|
RIP Syndrome posted:Although the US starting a confrontation with Iran and just sitting back twiddling its thumbs as the Saudis get wrecked is kind of darkly humorous It would be, right up until the fighting reached Mecca. Holy cities start world wars. Like, more of a world war at least.
|
|
#
?
Sep 17, 2019 22:28
|
|
|
RIP Syndrome posted:Thinking about this some more. If Iran is behind this attack, directly or indirectly, and there's no real response, couldn't they just keep escalating knowing they'll get away with it? The sanctions are already at maximum, if you believe the US. Iran has to conduct a decisive preemtive strike on us targets in the persian gulf aka THEY WILL SINK A CARRIER . Otherwise they arent hitting our loving assets. Iran is putting dollars in our pocket by attacking the sauds. Iran has regional pawns to create regional havoc but it doednt going to stop a cag from rolling in and crippling their infrastructure. Israel may feel the worst response if iran responds. WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 22:35 on Sep 17, 2019 |
|
#
?
Sep 17, 2019 22:33
|
|
|
How are u posted:Saudi leadership must be absolutely making GBS threads their pants right now after seeing demonstrated exactly how vulnerable they are. All the fancy toys in the world ain't worth poo poo if half of your entire economy can be shut down with alibaba, duct tape, and gumption. This has been pretty notable. Their sable rattling and bellicose rethoric has been pretty quiet after being shown that in any actual war they're extremely vulnerable and a couple of wrong moves could trigger a series of events that leads the royal family out of the palaces and in front of a firing squad.
|
|
#
?
Sep 17, 2019 22:35
|
|
|
Cat Mattress posted:Nope, it doesn't. If the US had retaliated, that would just have precipitated the escalation further and faster. lol you still getting beat up by bullies now adays? What a terrible analogy for this situation Kawasaki Nun fucked around with this message at 22:53 on Sep 17, 2019 |
|
#
?
Sep 17, 2019 22:36
|
|
|
Freezer posted:This has been pretty notable. Their sable rattling and bellicose rethoric has been pretty quiet after being shown that in any actual war they're extremely vulnerable and a couple of wrong moves could trigger a series of events that leads the royal family out of the palaces and in front of a firing squad. Are you talking about Italy because this sounds like Italy. Requiring big daddy to fix their wars. I mean saudi royal family is literally a pawn. Iran is a loving military powerhouse with domestic Small medium and large arms manufacturing. WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 22:41 on Sep 17, 2019 |
|
#
?
Sep 17, 2019 22:39
|
|
|
Saudi Arabia doesn't really have friends internationally, most of their diplomacy is transactional and I'm honestly curious how liquid they even are rn after years of costly fighting in Yemen and all their ambitious domestic development projects which certainly are being conducted efficiently and with little royal graft.
|
|
#
?
Sep 17, 2019 23:12
|
|
|
TheDeadlyShoe posted:Oil infrastructure is notoriously fragile and vulnerable. It has a hard enough time not blowing up in normal operation. totally cool and normal that we've built a huge percentage of global energy around this
|
|
#
?
Sep 17, 2019 23:13
|
|
|
Wouldn’t Europe be in a whole heap of trouble if there was a ME conflict?
|
|
#
?
Sep 17, 2019 23:15
|
|
|
How are u posted:Saudi leadership must be absolutely making GBS threads their pants right now after seeing demonstrated exactly how vulnerable they are. All the fancy toys in the world ain't worth poo poo if half of your entire economy can be shut down with alibaba, duct tape, and gumption. This was still a real military missile through - correct?
|
|
#
?
Sep 17, 2019 23:42
|
|
|
Tab8715 posted:This was still a real military missile through - correct? from what I understand only in the most literal sense, it was basically a drone with missile bits strapped to it you crash into a thing you want to wreck
|
|
#
?
Sep 17, 2019 23:43
|
|
|
Tab8715 posted:Wouldn’t Europe be in a whole heap of trouble if there was a ME conflict? If ME oil dries up, Europe would have two choices as to where it got it after that - the US or Russia. And with president deals, guess which it's more likely to go for *sighs*
|
|
#
?
Sep 17, 2019 23:48
|
|
|
CrazyLoon posted:If ME oil dries up, Europe would have two choices as to where it got it after that - the US or Russia. And with president deals, guess which it's more likely to go for *sighs* Looks like they’ve got about 90 days of emergency reserves but I doubt it’d last that long even with rationing.
|
|
#
?
Sep 17, 2019 23:59
|
|
|
Tab8715 posted:Wouldn’t Europe be in a whole heap of trouble if there was a ME conflict? There's been a ME conflict for like 30 of the last 50 years, so no, not really?
|
|
#
?
Sep 18, 2019 00:06
|
|
|
sexpig by night posted:from what I understand only in the most literal sense, it was basically a drone with missile bits strapped to it you crash into a thing you want to wreck it was probably something like the platform in the foreground:  It's not just a quad copter with a bomb strapped on. This was something built specifically to carry explosives hundreds of kilometers and blow up. It's not something any bored hobbyist could put together in a garage over a long weekend.
|
|
#
?
Sep 18, 2019 00:20
|
|
|
Herstory Begins Now posted:There's been a ME conflict for like 30 of the last 50 years, so no, not really? I mean one that cuts off oil exports.
|
|
#
?
Sep 18, 2019 00:38
|
|
|
CrazyLoon posted:If ME oil dries up, Europe would have two choices as to where it got it after that - the US or Russia. And with president deals, guess which it's more likely to go for *sighs* There's only one choice that makes economic sense, and it's Russia, because we've already got the pipelines. Just a little perk of being on the same continent. There's no way transportation by boat across the Atlantic is competitive. Squalid posted:it was probably something like the platform in the foreground: If the Houthi were just a bunch of bored hobbyists in a garage, even an army as incompetent as the Saudi would have gotten rid of them by now.
|
|
#
?
Sep 18, 2019 01:02
|
|
|
Herstory Begins Now posted:Oil prices going up is historically really bad news for basically every other sector of the american economy. Particularly farmers. Also makes food substantially more expensive, especially coupled with all the trade war poo poo affecting food imports. combined with a looming recession too. we are so hosed lol
|
|
#
?
Sep 18, 2019 01:04
|
|
|
Cat Mattress posted:There's only one choice that makes economic sense, and it's Russia, because we've already got the pipelines. They’re building LNG Terminals in Houston for European exports because they’re that angry at Russia. quote:If the Houthi were just a bunch of bored hobbyists in a garage, even an army as incompetent as the Saudi would have gotten rid of them by now. Does this still qualify this event as a enormously successful military operation?
|
|
#
?
Sep 18, 2019 01:16
|
|
|
Tab8715 posted:They’re building LNG Terminals in Houston for European exports because they’re that angry at Russia. It's never going to be competitive. The only business model for them is if the entirety of what Russia sells to Europe is not enough for Europe's needs, so they have no choice but to buy more expensive hydrocarbons too so as to top up.
|
|
#
?
Sep 18, 2019 01:31
|
|
|
Slightly related, but it looks like Bibi party isn't going to be the majority anymore.
|
|
#
?
Sep 18, 2019 01:32
|
|
|
Cat Mattress posted:It's never going to be competitive. The only business model for them is if the entirety of what Russia sells to Europe is not enough for Europe's needs, so they have no choice but to buy more expensive hydrocarbons too so as to top up. That’s not what I’m gathering? https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/05/business/energy-environment/qatar-exxon-mobil-gas-export.html
|
|
#
?
Sep 18, 2019 01:34
|
|
|
Cat Mattress posted:There's only one choice that makes economic sense, and it's Russia, because we've already got the pipelines. Just a little perk of being on the same continent. There's no way transportation by boat across the Atlantic is competitive. Yeah two key things here: 1) hobbyists are literally puting together drones with accurate guidance and hundreds of km ranges in their garages over a weekend and they were doing it five years ago (and their videos of it are all over youtube) and 2) Yemen has been literally at the forefront of expanding drone capabilities and putting them into practice for as long. E: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z_PxhU9i9Ng here's one from 6 years ago of an automated 80km flight using retail stuff Tab8715 posted:I mean one that cuts off oil exports. Given all the pipelines and shipping routes involved in getting oil out of the ME, for all of these to be shut down would be uh something extremely unprecedented. Basically, the uncertainty that part of the oil production network will go offline is baked into the price of oil Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 01:47 on Sep 18, 2019 |
|
#
?
Sep 18, 2019 01:44
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 26, 2024 10:06 |
|
|
Herstory Begins Now posted:Yeah two key things here: 1) hobbyists are literally puting together drones with accurate guidance and hundreds of km ranges in their garages over a weekend and they were doing it five years ago (and their videos of it are all over youtube) and 2) Yemen has been literally at the forefront of expanding drone capabilities and putting them into practice for as long. I'm not an engineer, but I feel like you are understating the difficulty involved. I have some familiarity with small drones, and I think with a bit of trial and error I could put a large quadcopter together in a weekend using off the shelf parts. These missiles though are definitely on a different scale of complexity and necessary expertise. I mean its likely the engines and electronics were all off the shelf parts but you can tell the body is all custom built. You can't just buy 3+ meter long rocket superstructures on Amazon, these things required at least a moderately sized professional workshop to construct. If they were fired from Yemen they would have also been operating near the edge of the maximum theoretical range feasible given the engine and fuel load, according to that Arms Control Wonk article. Actually achieving that performance is going to require serious design and foresight, this isn't a project you can just wing. Especially since they did it at least 19 times over. This is all contrasted with say, how IS used drones in the siege of Mosul. In that battle they basically were just using off the shelf commercial aircraft with a simple mechanism added to release mortars. These things however are different beasts entirely.
|
|
#
?
Sep 18, 2019 02:24
|
|