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Brony Car posted:I'm scared that people in the US military and the current administration have looked at the Iranian protests against the IRI government over the past decade and decided they can come in with military force and inspire a successful internal revolt. The problem with that idea is that secular Iranians are if anything more nationalist and revanchist than religious Iranians. Secular Iranians love dreaming of the Greater Persian Empire.
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Sep 19, 2019 09:59
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mediadave posted:The problem with that idea is that secular Iranians are if anything more nationalist and revanchist than religious Iranians. I have never met an Iranian who even mentioned this in discussing politics. Source? Ed: you a Volkerball alt maybe?
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Sep 19, 2019 10:43
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mediadave posted:The problem with that idea is that secular Iranians are if anything more nationalist and revanchist than religious Iranians.
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Sep 19, 2019 10:45
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mediadave posted:The problem with that idea is that secular Iranians are if anything more nationalist and revanchist than religious Iranians. I see John Bolton moved from the White House smoothly into a shitposting career.
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Sep 19, 2019 10:52
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Tab8715 posted:But none of this matters to neoconservatives even if they knew that history because they believe in American exceptionalism such as evangelicals Christians like Mike Pompeo. I mean just looking at the modern history of America shows this pretty clearly. 
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Sep 19, 2019 11:04
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mediadave posted:The problem with that idea is that secular Iranians are if anything more nationalist and revanchist than religious Iranians. Bourdain did an episode on Iran and most secular Iranians like music and muscle cars and poo poo so I don’t think a a greater Persian empire has anything to do with it. Also they make fun of Saudi Arabia in the episode.
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Sep 19, 2019 11:14
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I may be slightly exaggerating about the Greater Persian Empire thing, but the Persian Empire is definitely a point of pride amongst secular Iranians I've hung around with in London. (My wife is a UK Iranian).
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Sep 19, 2019 11:32
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Zeno-25 posted:All Iran would need to do to "win" this conflict is hit the desalination plants of the Gulf states and KSA to create a humanitarian crisis where hundreds of thousands would die of thirst in a few days, causing mass civil unrest and panic. I doubt all those millions of Let alone it's just been proved that the main part of the Saudi economy can be destroyed in the first few hours of a hot war and there's gently caress all anyone can do about it. Or make the Straight of Hormuz a tanker graveyard. SURELY its 100% clear now Iran can do a fuckton of damage to everyone if the USA or the Saudi are dumb enough to go hot.
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Sep 19, 2019 11:45
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CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:Let alone it's just been proved that the main part of the Saudi economy can be destroyed in the first few hours of a hot war and there's gently caress all anyone can do about it. How much Saudi oil does the USA import?
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Sep 19, 2019 12:15
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Good article on how KSA's managed to get itself into the geopolitical mess that it's in: It's mainly MBS's fault but he's been gleefully egged on by the UAE, who are doing very nicely out of the current situation! https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/will-mbs-bring-end-saudi-dynasty
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Sep 19, 2019 12:43
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https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/19/middleeast/iran-zarif-saudi-intl/index.html Zarif is making a ton of threats, trump might have a twitter tantrum.
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Sep 19, 2019 12:49
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quote:Iran's foreign minister has raised the specter of "all-out war" in the event of US or Saudi military strikes and that Saudi Arabia would have to fight "to the last American soldier." Rip previous thread title
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Sep 19, 2019 12:56
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fishmech posted:That was under UN authorization, which supersedes need for congressional authorization, due to the various UN treaties. Overthrowing the regime was absolutely not under UN authorization, since what the UN authorized was a no fly zone. UN authorization also doesn't bypass the constitutional requirement for the president to get congressional authorization, which is why the Obama Administration never made that argument (relying instead on saying the intervention was too limited to make congressional authorization necessary), and Congress authorized other conflicts carried out under the UN mandate such as the 91 Gulf War. The fig leaf of international legitimacy made it easier for Obama to sell his war to a public that doesn't give a poo poo about separation of powers anymore, and Congress was content to sit back and let Obama take the blame if anything went wrong without taking any responsibility for themselves, but it was still a power grab by Obama to go for it without seeking formal authorization. Fortunately it went off without a hitch, and Libya is a peaceful country which thanks President Hillary Clinton for her assistance in solving their problem.
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Sep 19, 2019 13:13
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mediadave posted:I may be slightly exaggerating about the Greater Persian Empire thing, but the Persian Empire is definitely a point of pride amongst secular Iranians I've hung around with in London. (My wife is a UK Iranian). This is just what peoples with ancient rear end history do. See also: Greeks, Chinese. It doesn't necessarily signal anything insane, it's mostly just casual smugness. And yeah the super religious ones don't do it as much, but that's because their version of the same is just younger.
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Sep 19, 2019 13:43
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Rust Martialis posted:How much Saudi oil does the USA import? I think the US is an exporter, it would be like the previous 70s energy crisis but I would expect prices to skyrocket especially for Europe.
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Sep 19, 2019 13:46
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dr_rat posted:I mean just looking at the modern history of America shows this pretty clearly. As an American, we really stop doing this and maybe I don’t know put this money into national Healthcare.
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Sep 19, 2019 13:48
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Sinteres posted:Fortunately it went off without a hitch, and Libya is a peaceful country which thanks President Hillary Clinton for her assistance in solving their problem. I loled
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Sep 19, 2019 13:49
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Dapper_Swindler posted:https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/19/middleeast/iran-zarif-saudi-intl/index.html Chairman Kim must be loving this poo poo lol
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Sep 19, 2019 14:22
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Tab8715 posted:I think the US is an exporter, it would be like the previous 70s energy crisis but I would expect prices to skyrocket especially for Europe. So big money for US oil firms
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Sep 19, 2019 15:02
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Rust Martialis posted:So big money for US oil firms Yes but not as much as you’d think given much of it is sold in North America. A war would create a recession which would decrease economic activity which would reduce energy consumption. Customers not buying your product is bad and Big oil doesn’t want that.
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Sep 19, 2019 15:12
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mediadave posted:The problem with that idea is that secular Iranians are if anything more nationalist and revanchist than religious Iranians. I don’t think it’s about an empire dream as much as a feeling that Iran deserves to be a major power in the region. The Iranians I know hate the Islamic Republic, but they also hate a distrust the Gulf Arabs. The IRI was actually in pretty shaky shape until Iraq invaded so you do have to deal with flag-rallying and nationalist pride too. It’s not like you have an obvious well-loved opposition leader there to spearhead an invasion. Whoever comes in to replace the IRI in the event you somehow pull off a regime change there might not be to everyone’s liking and you might still get consistent violence and instability.
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Sep 19, 2019 15:15
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Rust Martialis posted:How much Saudi oil does the USA import? We don't, but our prices are still sensitive to the global market. Edit: Okay fine, I'm conflating being a net exporter with autarky. Flip Yr Wig fucked around with this message at 19:17 on Sep 19, 2019 |
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Sep 19, 2019 15:50
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Zeno-25 posted:All Iran would need to do to "win" this conflict is hit the desalination plants of the Gulf states and KSA to create a humanitarian crisis where hundreds of thousands would die of thirst in a few days, causing mass civil unrest and panic. I doubt all those millions of ehhhh don’t oversell it. The prestige agriculture projects would all get turned off and the “guest workers” would just be sent home. they got enough water to keep people alive long enough to cash out and turn off the lights
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Sep 19, 2019 16:32
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Hey Elon, make your cars cheaper!
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Sep 19, 2019 16:32
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Rust Martialis posted:How much Saudi oil does the USA import? About half a million barrels a day.
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Sep 19, 2019 19:14
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Maybe I'm just an idiot but are we suggesting that Iran has imperial ambitions?
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Sep 19, 2019 21:35
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Glenn Quebec posted:Maybe I'm just an idiot but are we suggesting that Iran has imperial ambitions? I think we’re just suggesting that Iran want to have major, if not the most, influence in the region.
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Sep 19, 2019 21:42
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I mean, it already has that right? Which is why there is friction with Saudia Arabia? Aside from religious differences.
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Sep 19, 2019 21:50
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Due pretty much entirely to the comically stupid mis steps of anyone who would have rival regional ambitions, yeah Iran is pretty drat near the de facto power given that KSA and Egypt and Turkey who together economically and militarily eclipse Iran all do not care for one another on any meaningful level. Iran has just played their cards well and let everyone else bungle things repeatedly.
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Sep 19, 2019 21:55
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I have to add that the regional detest of Turks in general cannot be overstated insofar that I understand. Egypt is still roiling from internal strife and I'd be surprised if they could project power due to that. My understanding of the KSA is that their regional reputation has taken a hit since the new Prince has been stepping up his game. A brutal, drat near genocide of Yemen doesn't help.
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Sep 19, 2019 22:11
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It's not a near genocide and also somehow they're losing a genocide, for possibly the first time in history
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Sep 19, 2019 22:16
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Like, 233,000 have died and people are starving. So, maybe I'm off. I don't know what qualified to call something a holocaust or genocide maybe.
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Sep 19, 2019 22:25
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Wasn't Trump gonna be imposing new sanctions? Are they having trouble coming up with new stuff?
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Sep 19, 2019 22:53
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Glenn Quebec posted:Maybe I'm just an idiot but are we suggesting that Iran has imperial ambitions? Others have responded to this but I'd like to add Iran was able to expand their influence quite a bit since we (the US) took out Saddam Hussein. Iraq went from being a bitter rival to Iraq to a close ally once a Shia dominant government took over after the 2003 invasion. Now you have Shia militias running around Iraq that are controlled more by Iran than the central government in Iraq. The same militas that defeated ISIS back in 2016.
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Sep 19, 2019 22:58
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Glenn Quebec posted:Maybe I'm just an idiot but are we suggesting that Iran has imperial ambitions? It definitely has regional power ambitions, that is objectively true. But not in some stand out sense from the other big jerks in the region like Turkey, Israel, and the Saudis. Glenn Quebec posted:I have to add that the regional detest of Turks in general cannot be overstated insofar that I understand. Turkey has that situation going on where I think places farther from them in the region are cool with them. But the places right nearby hate them fiercely, with the apparent exception of Georgia.
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Sep 19, 2019 23:05
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Due pretty much entirely to the comically stupid mis steps of anyone who would have rival regional ambitions, yeah Iran is pretty drat near the de facto power given that KSA and Egypt and Turkey who together economically and militarily eclipse Iran all do not care for one another on any meaningful level. Iran has just played their cards well and let everyone else bungle things repeatedly. even then they put a few too many eggs in the Syrian basket, but betting on the Lion seems to be working out for them
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Sep 19, 2019 23:06
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Grape posted:It definitely has regional power ambitions, that is objectively true. But not in some stand out sense from the other big jerks in the region like Turkey, Israel, and the Saudis. yeah that too, they're essentially a typical regional actor doing things for typical reasons
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Sep 19, 2019 23:06
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GreyjoyBastard posted:yeah that too, they're essentially a typical regional actor doing things for typical reasons They are assholes, but like... so are three or so other countries we don't lose our poo poo over (if anything doing the opposite). I keep being reminded of WW1 propaganda trying to make the Germans somehow uniquely evil, instead of just one jerk in a crowd of jerks having an inter-jerk war.
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Sep 19, 2019 23:08
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Grape posted:It definitely has regional power ambitions, that is objectively true. But not in some stand out sense from the other big jerks in the region like Turkey, Israel, and the Saudis. Are Turkey and Iran really that hostile to each other? I mean yeah, they are kind of on opposite ends as regards who they support in Syria, but I don't think that's going to last that much longer and that some kind of agreeement will be reached between Turkey and the Syrian government (I think the day when Turkey and Assad come together to seal the fate of the YPG, more likely by some kind of ultimatum agreement that they can't turn down than outright combat I would imagine, is drawing near). Before the Syrian civil war, Turkey often worked as an intermediary for Iran when negotiating for instance the nuclear deal IIRC there are economic ties and other such things to consider. The Shia/Sunni split (which seems to be something that alot of people with a surface understandign of the Islamic world will attribute for any trouble now and going back, even when the actual situation is much more multifaceted and complicated, and varies alot by country and region) hasn't really played into the relationship of the two countries in the 20th century (and no, the history of Ottoman-Safavid rivarly is simply not that relevant to the modern situation and most prominelty involved control and influence over Iraq in any case) and back in the Shah's day the two were essentially allies in a sense. Grape posted:I keep being reminded of WW1 propaganda trying to make the Germans somehow uniquely evil, instead of just one jerk in a crowd of jerks having an inter-jerk war. That was because they were the enemy and everyone demonized their enemy. Getting hung up on that detail is just another part of the German post-WW1 obsession with ahving been "unfairly treated" and betrayed. The Germans did plenty of bad poo poo in WW1, and were perhaps uniquely harsh in their anti-partisan measures towards civilain populations (partly due to their own hysteria about civilian snipers "franc tireurs"), there's alot of parallels and continuity between the German army in WW1 and WW2 and its culture of brutality towards non-combatants and civilain resistance. Randarkman fucked around with this message at 23:49 on Sep 19, 2019 |
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Sep 19, 2019 23:44
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Randarkman posted:Are Turkey and Iran really that hostile to each other? Only a torke khar would ask such a question
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Sep 20, 2019 00:00
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