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Sinteres posted:It'll be interesting to see if the EU finds a way to punish Turkey down the line for holding the threat of sending refugees their way over their heads for years now. So far they haven't even managed to stick up for Cyprus, which is a member state, so yeah they aren't going to do anything for the Kurds, but if Turkey does resettle the refugees in northern Syria, they lose that leverage. At least until the next inevitable migrant crisis in a rapidly warming world.
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Oct 7, 2019 16:04
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Helsing posted:So why is it that people living in Syria have are more than twice as likely to prefer the government rather than ISIS. In a poll by Orb International 47% of respondents expressed support for the Syrian government vs. 21 percent expressing support for ISIS and 35 percent for Nusra. In a country that is 80%-85% Arab those numbers don't make sense without some not insignificant levels of support for the government across ethnic lines. That the government has some support and has essentially won by now with most of the rebels reduced to small holdouts and ISIS practically gone is not in question. The Syrian regime is still a murderous tyranny which has cemented its victory through terror and repression. And they Are responsible for the vast majority of civilian deaths in the conflict.
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Oct 7, 2019 16:05
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Flavahbeast posted:Is Trump making the right decision here, in your opinion?
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Oct 7, 2019 16:06
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Wow, Graham's way more forceful here than I was expecting: https://twitter.com/LindseyGrahamSC/status/1181219809427623936
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Oct 7, 2019 16:11
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Lindsey Graham also said that MBS has to go and that amounted to nothing so whatevs.
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Oct 7, 2019 16:12
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Fair. That said, now would be an insanely bad time for Trump to try punishing any Republican senators who break with him, particularly the chairman of the Senate judiciary committee, so Graham may feel more emboldened than usual right now. In other news, Iraq's meltdown continues: https://twitter.com/LizSly/status/1180954626071437320
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Oct 7, 2019 16:14
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https://twitter.com/leventkemaI/status/1181178831895502849?s=20
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Oct 7, 2019 16:18
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Lol what's the UK and other allied forces doing there?
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Oct 7, 2019 16:23
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Demiurge4 posted:Lol what's the UK and other allied forces doing there?
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Oct 7, 2019 16:36
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Randarkman posted:People tend to readily ascribe lots of agendas, typically malicious, to the Syrian rebels, when likely the vast majority of them, even the apparently Islamist kind, probably had little agenda beyond fighting the government and defending their own local area. In certain corners and even in mainstream news at times you hear alot about how the Syrian rebels would have massacred anyone non-Sunni and such, yet the fact remains that outside of ISIS it's really only the government which has been massacring people, by the tens of thousands and in numbers where even the stuff that ISIS managed to do pales in comparisons. Yet the Assad government is supposedly a superior alternative to any of the rebels. I question whether or not they even are preferable to ISIS to be honest. Not having an agenda was kind of the rebels problem. When western nations and the Kurds asked them "so why should we support you?" Their answer was always ". . ." Because it's not enough to be against bad things, you have be for something good. Removing Assad doesn't help anyone if he just get's replaced with another murderous dictatorship.
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Oct 7, 2019 16:42
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BLAST! Could have sworn he ran on withdrawing from Iraq being a huge mistake that led to the rise of ISIS. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1181227887543894016 It's so depressing that this drooling idiot is the leader of the most powerful country in the world: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1181232251390042118 Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 16:50 on Oct 7, 2019 |
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Oct 7, 2019 16:43
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As I recall around 2015 Nusra tried to moderate its image and the compromise position they worked out was that everyone would be allowed to convert to their version of Sunni Islam and live under Sharia law. I'm not sure that a lack of clarity regarding their plans was really their biggest obstacle.
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Oct 7, 2019 16:44
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Rent-A-Cop posted:Pretending to be militarily relevant while getting some low cost on the job training for their armies. I meant what are they doing right now, in this moment, as the US starts withdrawing without telling anyone.
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Oct 7, 2019 16:50
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Helsing posted:As I recall around 2015 Nusra tried to moderate its image and the compromise position they worked out was that everyone would be allowed to convert to their version of Sunni Islam and live under Sharia law. I'm not sure that a lack of clarity regarding their plans was really their biggest obstacle. 2015 was also the year the argument the US or Europe should actively arm and assist the rebels collapsed and after that year there were no serious efforts to do so. Before that year refusal to cooperate with literally al Qaeda was always a prerequisite to receive the modest aid that was provided, and the fact that so few rebel organizations were able to meet that bar is one of the main reasons in the end there was no intervention against Assad.
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Oct 7, 2019 16:55
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Demiurge4 posted:I meant what are they doing right now, in this moment, as the US starts withdrawing without telling anyone.
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Oct 7, 2019 16:55
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Turkey's not going to go out of their way to target French or British forces, and would presumably take significant efforts to avoid killing them. While the Afrin campaign led to the expulsion of a lot of Kurds, in terms of civilian fatalities it was a remarkably bloodless campaign, so Turkey's demonstrated an ability to be selective in their targeting. The regime also managed to encircle a Turkish observation post in Idlib without attacking it, which is still there weeks after the regime took the surrounding territory, so there's no reason Turkey couldn't do something similar if the Europeans stubbornly refuse to budge from their positions.
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Oct 7, 2019 17:03
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Sinteres posted:It's so depressing that this drooling idiot is the leader of the most powerful country in the world:
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Oct 7, 2019 17:03
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I, in my great and unmatched wisdom
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Oct 7, 2019 17:08
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I wonder if we'll end up seeing a toothless Security Council resolution saying boy it sure would be nice if Turkey would cut that out but we aren't going to do anything to stop them. There are a shitload of them about Cyprus.
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Oct 7, 2019 17:18
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The Kurds have never had a good options. The US was the only force offering them anything like actual assistance, so they took it, simple as that. It was always a long shot that the US would be able to actually fend off Turkey, but it was possible that something could have turned out different. I can't blame the Kurds for aiming for the one narrow chance where they might not get mulched. The US, for its part, has done a mediocre, scattershot job of things, especially on the diplomatic front with Turkey.
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Oct 7, 2019 17:19
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Atatyrks legacy must be MAINTAINED
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Oct 7, 2019 17:28
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Haystack posted:The Kurds have never had a good options. The US was the only force offering them anything like actual assistance, so they took it, simple as that. It was always a long shot that the US would be able to actually fend off Turkey, but it was possible that something could have turned out different. I can't blame the Kurds for aiming for the one narrow chance where they might not get mulched. the only reason this becomes complex, at all, in anyone's head is the belief the united states is even trying to be a force for good in the middle east, tbh. we found some regional catspaws. we armed them. they killed our enemies for us. they then became inconvenient to the president's foreign policy goals. so we left them to die. this has been the script we've been working off in the region for the last fifty years minimum, the only real question is when it's going to be Saudi or Israel's turn already.
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Oct 7, 2019 17:40
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Tired: Syrian War Wired: Starting a war with Turkey
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Oct 7, 2019 17:48
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FlamingLiberal posted:Broke: Syrian War Bespoke: Making Kurdistan Great Again
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Oct 7, 2019 17:53
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I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!
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Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:the only reason this becomes complex, at all, in anyone's head is the belief the united states is even trying to be a force for good in the middle east, tbh. Without the indoctrinated consent of the american public for every single one of the US military's imperialist interventions, we would have never ended up here
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Oct 7, 2019 17:54
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 Trump's toadies genuinely believe this 
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Oct 7, 2019 17:55
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Bob le Moche posted:^^^ This So you think we should have let ISIS exterminate the Kurdish communists, interesting.
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Oct 7, 2019 18:31
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Sinteres posted:So you think we should have let ISIS exterminate the Kurdish communists, interesting.
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Oct 7, 2019 18:37
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Atatyrks legacy must be MAINTAINED Don’t forget to buy stock in the companies that manufacture gigantic, terrifying stone busts of Atatürk’s head
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Oct 7, 2019 18:41
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Bob le Moche posted:You have literally facilitated it. ISIS is going to commit genocide with the backing of NATO. gently caress off so hard Turkey's going to do some awful things, but they're not even close to as brutal as literal ISIS, you're crazy. Nobody but the US had any ability to stop ISIS from overrunning Kobane when we intervened (except Turkey, but they obviously had no interest in doing so), but you seem to think we should have let ISIS wipe out the brave communist men and women who were fighting with their backs against the wall. The US overstayed its welcome and kept the Kurds from negotiating a backup deal with Russia and the regime to keep the Turks from the door, doing so to control the oil in the south, so attack the US for its cynicism there all you want--it's justified. Without the initial intervention there would have been a whole lot of dead communists though. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 18:44 on Oct 7, 2019 |
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Oct 7, 2019 18:42
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Maybe we can appease isis by offering them internet communists so they will leave the weird kurd communists alone
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Oct 7, 2019 18:45
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Why are we talking about ISIS in this case? ISIS is kind of gone as a big player. Alot of the TFSA forces are hardcore Islamists, but that's not the same as them being ISIS. As far as I know ISIS kind of has nothing presently to do with the situation at hand.
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Oct 7, 2019 18:53
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Maybe we can appease isis by offering them internet communists so they will leave the weird kurd communists alone https://twitter.com/dril/status/831805955402776576
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Oct 7, 2019 18:53
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Randarkman posted:Why are we talking about ISIS in this case? ISIS is kind of gone as a big player. Alot of the TFSA forces are hardcore Islamists, but that's not the same as them being ISIS. As far as I know ISIS kind of has nothing presently to do with the situation at hand. They still exist as a faction and they have 12,000 fighters and 70,000 civilians just sitting in camps waiting to be broken out and unleashed into a power vaccuum.
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Oct 7, 2019 18:58
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Sinteres posted:Turkey's going to do some awful things, but they're not even close to as brutal as literal ISIS, you're crazy. They are going to ethnically cleanse Northern Syria using German French and British weapons, and with the blessing of the US. Erdogan has stated he intends to do to Northern Syria what he did to Afrin.
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Oct 7, 2019 18:59
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The Pentagon already seems to be dragging its feet and suggesting the withdrawal is only a minimal distance and the skies are still off limits to Turkey for now. Creative interpretation has worked in the past, but it's going to be pretty wild if we end up just giving up a few border towns and then doing this again in six months. What seems certain is that so far nobody on Team America is planning on giving up the oil fields in the south any time soon, though most of the SDF that were stationed there have left. Senators are still having a fit too, though McConnell's line here does seem more aimed at loving over the regime in the south rather than protecting the Kurds in the north: https://twitter.com/MikeEmanuelFox/status/1181267630390464514 Bob le Moche posted:Turkey has no problem collaborating with ISIS. Turkey's strategy in Syria has been to bribe ISIS leaders to work for their side. Turkey allows Al Nusra to operate within its borders to target leftist groups like the PKK. Erdogan's mercenary force fighting the YPG are all "former" Al-Qaeda and ISIS. There are current commanders of the Turkey-backed Free Syrian Army who are ex-ISIS. The ethnic cleansing in Afrin is horrible, but if you think it's comparable to what ISIS was doing before US intervention, you need to look it up. Turkey was fine with what ISIS was doing back then, but when they're officially in charge they still at least make minimal efforts to keep up appearances, so you aren't going to see them literally crucifying civilians and poo poo. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 19:07 on Oct 7, 2019 |
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Oct 7, 2019 19:00
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Helsing posted:So why is it that people living in Syria have are more than twice as likely to prefer the government rather than ISIS. In a poll by Orb International 47% of respondents expressed support for the Syrian government vs. 21 percent expressing support for ISIS and 35 percent for Nusra. In a country that is 80%-85% Arab those numbers don't make sense without some not insignificant levels of support for the government across ethnic lines. Uh, maybe because many who had anything negative to say about Assad are either dead, imprisoned and suffering torture, or have fled the country for fear of imprisonment, torture, or death?
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Oct 7, 2019 19:12
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SoggyBobcat posted:Uh, maybe because many who had anything negative to say about Assad are either dead, imprisoned and suffering torture, or have fled the country for fear of imprisonment, torture, or death? The Dictator/Jihadists Enigma. Two choices, you want to be shot with a .22 or a .38. Less Claypool fucked around with this message at 19:28 on Oct 7, 2019 |
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Oct 7, 2019 19:25
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Nothing will loving happen guys. Trump will backpedal as always, and Erdogan cannot take any action without the consent of his BFF Putin, Whom seems to be seen more in Istanbul than at his home in Moscow. At best a few villages will be handed over and there might be some skirmishes here and there, but that will be the extent of it.
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Oct 7, 2019 19:34
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https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/1181282693910269954?s=20 https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1181282104308424704
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Oct 7, 2019 20:06
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