|
The problem with DVOA is that it's completely opaque and that even a decade in, they're still making things up as they go along. quote:Taking a big hit in the ratings and also in the rankings are the Detroit Lions and the Buffalo Bills. Detroit falls from 11th to 12th with 30% adjustments and then down to 17th with 100% adjustments. Buffalo drops from ninth to 15th with both sets of adjustments. I will admit that those rankings feel a bit more in line with how these teams have played this year, suggesting that maybe we do need to incorporate opponent adjustments even after only three weeks of the season.
|
# ? Oct 8, 2019 13:26 |
|
|
# ? May 16, 2024 17:11 |
|
fsif posted:The problem with DVOA is that it's completely opaque and that even a decade in, they're still making things up as they go along. That was from an article examining whether starting the season with opponent adjustments is a good idea, despite the small sample size. They don’t normally turn adjustments “on” until Week 4.
|
# ? Oct 8, 2019 13:33 |
Comparing week 5 teams to other historical week 5 teams is one thing, but this is more wild:
|
|
# ? Oct 8, 2019 14:08 |
|
I'm curious to see what a graph of "Team DVOA by week" would look like. Anyone know if FO provides a full-season data summary somewhere? Or would it need to be manually scraped from their weekly posts.
|
# ? Oct 8, 2019 14:14 |
|
kalensc posted:I'm curious to see what a graph of "Team DVOA by week" would look like. Anyone know if FO provides a full-season data summary somewhere? Or would it need to be manually scraped from their weekly posts. I know they include a DVOA-by-week graph with each chapter of the almanac. Dunno if it’s on the website.
|
# ? Oct 8, 2019 14:17 |
|
Nosre posted:Comparing week 5 teams to other historical week 5 teams is one thing, but this is more wild: Well, purely going by math: - N.E is undefeated with only 1 decent divisional rival, and they beat them on the road; - Going by stats or the ol' eye test, N.E is certainly stronger than Buffalo overall; - Thus N.E winning the division has an extremely high probability at this juncture; - The expected wins versus their weak schedule gives them a very high bye probability; - K.C's in-conference loss hurts their projections for a top seed (although their match vs N.E will settle that potential 2-way tiebreaker); - So if you put that all together in the magic opaque number machine (very debatable methodology) you can reasonably arrive at: P(N.E in playoffs) > 99.7% P(N.E wins AFCE) =~ 95.0% P(N.E earns bye) =~ 90.7% P(N.E wins divisional playoff) =~ 78.7% P(N.E wins conference title) =~ 57.7% P(N.E wins title) =~ 37.3% Note that conditional probabilities are important to consider for those playoff matches. That is, the probability that B occurs if we assume A occurs. This would give a better representation of what FO is currently projecting for an individual Sunday in January. P(B|A) = P(A & B occur) / P(A occurs) P(N.E wins DivPO | N.E has bye) =~ 0.787/0.907 =~ 0.868* (* note that this specific calc isn't quite right, as we would need to cut out the (N.E wins DivPO without having a bye) slice, but I am about to go into a meeting and it's close enough° given how dominant their Bye% is) ((° note that I loathe that phrasing and will probably edit the true calc in later cause mathematical minds can't. let. poo poo. go.)) So, right now, IF N.E earns a bye and thus hosts a WC game winner such as Buffalo, Baltimore, Houston, Oakland, Indy, etc, THEN FO is projecting an N.E win approx 7 out of 8 times. P(N.E wins ConfPO | (P(N.E wins DivPO | N.E has bye)) =~ 0.577/0.868 =~ 0.665 So, IF N.E earns a bye AND then advances to the AFC title match, THEN FO is projecting an N.E win approx 2 out of 3 times. P(N.E wins SB | (P(N.E wins ConfPO | (P(N.E wins DivPO | N.E has bye))) =~ 0.373/0.665 =~ 0.561 So, if N.E earns a bye AND advances to AFC title game AND wins AFC title, THEN FO is projecting an N.E win approx 5 out of 9 times. Those playoff projections aren't that unreasonable, and the SB game itself is close to a coin-flip. What gives them such a massive lead in the SB Win% column is the projection that they have a 78%~ shot at #1 Seed and 13% shot at #2 Seed (thus the 90.7% bye). For comparison, K.C has the second largest Bye% at 46.7%, and thus FO projections account for K.C playing in the Wild Card round quite often. That extra game, plus a win sending them on the road in the divisional round, significantly lowers their SB Win%. TL;DR: Read the whole post, cause math is fun. Also, gently caress the Pats & gently caress the NFL Corporation in general. Go Players Go. kalensc fucked around with this message at 14:57 on Oct 8, 2019 |
# ? Oct 8, 2019 14:52 |
|
Does DVOA account for the Patriots being cheaters and frauds
|
# ? Oct 8, 2019 15:09 |
|
can you do it again in Steiner math
|
# ? Oct 8, 2019 15:09 |
|
DVOA includes two great ideas you don't get in "normal" stats - success rate and opponent adjustments. Success rate being the number of times a play is successful, something like get 40% of needed yards on 1st down, 80% on 2nd down, 100% on 3rd or 4th down. That's a neat idea, since it weeds out plays such as when a draw on 3rd and 25 gets a running back 15 yards; it wasn't really successful, so the running back doesn't get much credit for it. Opponent adjustments are also a good idea, it's the formal way of saying "Yeah, but they've only played Miami, Washingon, and the Jets so far, wait until they play a real team!" The problem with DVOA is it takes these two basic, good ideas and mushes them into an opaque mega-Excel document. They also do this stuff with "greatest team of all time!" every year to fill content, and it almost always winds up being due to small sample sizes that vanishes by week 8 or 9. I wish they'd just post success rate percentages and opponent-adjusted yards and left it at that; maybe they do have that info in their paid site I dunno. I have written too much about DVOA
|
# ? Oct 8, 2019 15:34 |
|
Hot Diggity! posted:Does DVOA account for the Patriots being cheaters and frauds If the Pats are frauds then everyone else in the league is much worse then that.
|
# ? Oct 8, 2019 15:38 |
|
Amy Pole Her posted:Oh so it’s San Fran who gets built up before their first round exit Extremely fine with this
|
# ? Oct 8, 2019 15:44 |
|
Are the niners actually good? I haven’t been able to see them play yet
|
# ? Oct 8, 2019 15:47 |
|
kalensc posted:. What gives them such a massive lead in the SB Win% column is the projection that they have a 78%~ shot at #1 Seed and 13% shot at #2 Seed (thus the 90.7% bye). For comparison, K.C has the second largest Bye% at 46.7%, and thus FO projections account for K.C playing in the Wild Card round quite often. That extra game, plus a win sending them on the road in the divisional round, significantly lowers their SB Win%. AFC East being a dumpster fire for 20 years and giving NE a automatic bye or at worst at least 1 playoff game at home - and therefore like automatically a 15-20% greater chance to win the superbowl every year - is more reasons to hate literally every team in that division. gently caress you AFC East.
|
# ? Oct 8, 2019 15:48 |
|
DVOA loves the Pats because their defense has given up 20 total points in 5 games, which along with scoring 30+ in 4 of 5 games means yeah they're gonna be ranked highly. They'll come back down to something normal at some point, because you can't play the Dolphins or 3rd string QB's every week, but the defense is still super good. Gave up 3 to the Steelers, who've scored 20+ in their other 4 games. Gave up 10 to the Bills, who are averaging 20 in their other games. and... okay, yeah, there's really nothing to take from blanking the Dolphins or 2 3rd string QB's, come on now. Anyway, Quick Reads is out: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/quick-reads/2019/week-5-quick-reads quote:7. Matt Ryan - Sometimes completion percentage can be overrated. Ryan completed all 11 of his passes to his running backs, but for a total of just 85 yards and only two first downs (though one of those was a touchdown). Also Luke Falk had one of the worst games ever by DYAR.
|
# ? Oct 8, 2019 15:51 |
|
Hot Diggity! posted:Does DVOA account for the Patriots being cheaters and frauds Yes but it hasn’t been updated to take handjobs from Chinese sex slaves just yet.
|
# ? Oct 8, 2019 15:54 |
|
Finally, some intelligent football commentary on tv: https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1181584075213160448 Kalli fucked around with this message at 16:02 on Oct 8, 2019 |
# ? Oct 8, 2019 15:55 |
|
kalensc posted:Well, purely going by math: What’s the chance of ref fuckery in a Saints playoff game?
|
# ? Oct 8, 2019 15:58 |
|
Amy Pole Her posted:Oh so it’s San Fran who gets built up before their first round exit Cant lose in the first round from your couch oh god let me have this
|
# ? Oct 8, 2019 16:01 |
|
Nosre posted:opponent adjustments are in, apparently I love that the insanely fraudulent bears team is on here
|
# ? Oct 8, 2019 16:02 |
|
mastershakeman posted:I love that the insanely fraudulent bears team is on here That bears team was an exercise in better lucky than good. Just an incredible amount of Bears Bullshit on turnovers and special teams and occasional sex cannon magic
|
# ? Oct 8, 2019 16:09 |
|
Kalli posted:Finally, some intelligent football commentary on tv: I cannot wait for this
|
# ? Oct 8, 2019 16:09 |
|
Kalli posted:Finally, some intelligent football commentary on tv: Hope this doesn't interfere with his November comeback.
|
# ? Oct 8, 2019 16:12 |
|
Kalli posted:Finally, some intelligent football commentary on tv: he's so gonna be a smackdown regular
|
# ? Oct 8, 2019 16:17 |
|
Spoeank posted:Cant lose in the first round from your couch All dolphins fan are: 1. Cheering against Patriots 2. Cheering against anyone we have vested interest in their draft picks (HOU, NOLA, PITT) 3. Remind every other fan base that winning is fleeting. Only true balance can come from 8-8. Yin Yang.
|
# ? Oct 8, 2019 16:17 |
|
Kalli posted:DVOA loves the Pats because their defense has given up 20 total points in 5 games, which along with scoring 30+ in 4 of 5 games means yeah they're gonna be ranked highly. A Raiders RB in the top 5 DVOA for rushing
|
# ? Oct 8, 2019 16:25 |
|
Nosre posted:Comparing week 5 teams to other historical week 5 teams is one thing, but this is more wild: Cardinals getting the #1 pick again would be wild.
|
# ? Oct 8, 2019 16:25 |
|
Uhhhh https://twitter.com/Conoco/status/1181044252849180672?s=19
|
# ? Oct 8, 2019 16:31 |
|
420_Power_Rangers posted:I cannot wait for this drat I wish CBS would’ve gotten him so we could have a Gronk and Romo show.
|
# ? Oct 8, 2019 16:31 |
|
Well I know what game the VP is going to next.
|
# ? Oct 8, 2019 16:36 |
|
Amy Pole Her posted:All dolphins fan are: The Patriots traded away Jimmy G so the ultimate gently caress you to the Patriots is the 49ers defeating them in the Super Bowl :rollsafe:
|
# ? Oct 8, 2019 16:36 |
|
I see Animorphs is making a comeback.
|
# ? Oct 8, 2019 16:41 |
|
Kalli posted:Schedule: My interpretation of this schedule: 49ers @ Rams - loving LIT Saints @ Jaguars - maybe worth watching, especially if it's close Washington @ Dolphins - battle of the stoppable force and the movable object. which 0-win team will come out on top? Texans @ Chiefs - oh you're watching this one. see if the Chiefs can bounce back from their first loss and get a chance to watch two of the best young players in the game Eagles @ Vikings - should be a hard fought game. not sure it'll be good or anything Falcons @ Cardinals - I just like watching Kyler Murray Panthers @ Buccaneers - Been enjoying watching the Panthers recently. If the Bucs manage to give them a fight it could be a good game hifi posted:bargain bin gardner minshew lol
|
# ? Oct 8, 2019 16:45 |
|
I'm still amazed that the Bears had two current top 5 QBs Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes right there for them to draft and they take Mitch.
|
# ? Oct 8, 2019 16:46 |
|
Kirios posted:I'm still amazed that the Bears had two current top 5 QBs Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes right there for them to draft and they take Mitch.
|
# ? Oct 8, 2019 16:48 |
|
WHY DO THEY DO THIS EVERY TIME SOMEONE BEATS THE CHARGERS
|
# ? Oct 8, 2019 16:50 |
|
12-4 here we come https://twitter.com/connor_j_hughes/status/1181598115926872066?s=21
|
# ? Oct 8, 2019 16:53 |
|
Professor Funk posted:12-4 here we come Football contact or kissing contact?
|
# ? Oct 8, 2019 16:54 |
|
https://twitter.com/sal_castaneda/status/1181590842022060032 Imagine
|
# ? Oct 8, 2019 17:14 |
|
Silly Burrito posted:Football contact or kissing contact? Alien contact
|
# ? Oct 8, 2019 17:14 |
|
|
# ? May 16, 2024 17:11 |
|
People care about the A's?
|
# ? Oct 8, 2019 17:15 |