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Vernii posted:Doubtful given they had seized a good chunk of the senior government and the coup was only defeated by Erdogan personally mobilizing his base. The entire thing came very, very close to succeeding which makes its failure even more tragic. What do you think would have been the reaction of the turkish public and the AKP's support base if Erdogan died and the coup succeeded?
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Oct 12, 2019 19:23
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maybe I should say that I don't think Trump is acting irrationally, it's just I don't think he's enacting the rational consensus will of the American foreign policy establishmentariat. Trump doesn't like foreign commitments which he sees as liabilities. As part of his America first policy he doesn't believe the US should fight for other people or their interests, and defines American interests very narrowly. He views withdrawing from Syria as divesting from a liability, and views that fact that America has to be there fighting IS as unfair, and backs other nations taking on those obligations as good. It might not shock everyone to hear that I think his ideas are bad, but they aren't entirely lacking in logic.
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Oct 12, 2019 19:25
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Bleh https://twitter.com/richardengel/status/1183080487243407361?s=21
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Oct 12, 2019 20:01
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Can we turn that deep concern into a deep strike on the presidential palace of turkey
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Oct 12, 2019 20:20
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Vernii posted:Doubtful given they had seized a good chunk of the senior government and the coup was only defeated by Erdogan personally mobilizing his base. The entire thing came very, very close to succeeding which makes its failure even more tragic. If a military coup had succeeded in murdering Erdogan and replacing him with a general, they wouldn't have been any friendlier to the Kurds, and would have scapegoated them for national unity just as Erdogan has--the military has always been extremely hostile to the Kurds, whereas it's a relatively late development for Erdogan. I guess Erdogan wouldn't be there to personally convince Trump to give him what he wants, but nothing about Trump suggests a military dictator would be any less likely to get his way, unless maybe that military dictator wasn't as good at playing nice with Russia.
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Oct 12, 2019 20:21
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mila kunis posted:What do you think would have been the reaction of the turkish public and the AKP's support base if Erdogan died and the coup succeeded? Riots, protests, etc but without central leadership from the AKP (such as Erdogan dead and the rest of the senior government arrested or also dead) I don't think it would have succeeded. The coup literally only failed because they didn't nab Erdogan. With him gone and the government decapitated, the rest of the military would have probably swung into gear to protect 'public order' since it'd become a do or die moment for them, which was probably part of the coup plan to force the general staff into a situation where they'd have to mobilize in support of it or risk losing everything. The result would have probably looked a lot like Egypt's army crushing the MB. I think honestly it would have been an improvement over the situation today, which is Turkey increasingly descending into a one-party dictatorship and purging anyone who doesn't toe the line while planning to engage in
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Oct 12, 2019 20:24
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Nenonen posted:3) there is less danger of Turkey continuing to occupy northern Syria indefinitely Orly?
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Oct 12, 2019 20:57
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mila kunis posted:Erdogan would become a martyr and the AKP would be just put up another guy. yeah but it would have been pretty sweet
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Oct 12, 2019 20:59
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"turkish backed arab militias"
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Oct 12, 2019 21:20
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MiddleOne posted:I think anything less than the diplomatic response levied at Russia over Crimea should be considered a cop-out. Attempts at annexing territory — nevermind the thinly veiled ambition of doing it through ethnic cleansing — needs to be hit down on hard. But no one cut diplomatic ties with Russia because of the Crimea. Not even Ukraine.
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Oct 12, 2019 21:21
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Vernii posted:Doubtful given they had seized a good chunk of the senior government and the coup was only defeated by Erdogan personally mobilizing his base. The entire thing came very, very close to succeeding which makes its failure even more tragic. Did it? iirc they had to launch it prematurely because they'd been outed and nothing really happened.
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Oct 12, 2019 21:31
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Turkey would NEVER make a play for aleppo right guys Theyre just too turkey to do it.
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Oct 12, 2019 21:41
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gh0stpinballa posted:"turkish backed arab militias" Yes? This isn't new, Turkey has acquired clients from the various debris of the various northern rebels over the years of the conflict. Along with their own dudes they'd be putting these guys into action too. It even makes cunning sense for several big reasons. 1. Lowers Turkish casualties, Erdogan doesn't have so iron a grip that this still wouldn't make bad PR for him if it got super bloody for his own citizens. 2. Degree of plausible deniability in some of the war crimes stuff. "Gosh real shame that those Syrians did a genocide on that village, our boys wouldn't have done that thing. But hey they're their own bosses at the end of the day these guys.  "3. Part of the openly stated goal is changing the local demographics, and that isn't likely to JUST be Syrian refugees, but also Syrian non-Kurd militias and whatnot. I mean having seen the video of the stopped jeep I know enough to say that wasn't Turkish being spoken.
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Oct 12, 2019 23:11
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Vernii posted:Riots, protests, etc but without central leadership from the AKP (such as Erdogan dead and the rest of the senior government arrested or also dead) I don't think it would have succeeded. The coup literally only failed because they didn't nab Erdogan. With him gone and the government decapitated, the rest of the military would have probably swung into gear to protect 'public order' since it'd become a do or die moment for them, which was probably part of the coup plan to force the general staff into a situation where they'd have to mobilize in support of it or risk losing everything. The result would have probably looked a lot like Egypt's army crushing the MB. I think honestly it would have been an improvement over the situation today, which is Turkey increasingly descending into a one-party dictatorship and purging anyone who doesn't toe the line while planning to engage in also the Turkish military, specifically, actually has a history of resuming something resembling actual democracy after overthrowing a dude They're shitheads, but it probably would have been preferable to Erdogan. Oh well!
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Oct 12, 2019 23:18
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Vernii posted:The result would have probably looked a lot like Egypt's army crushing the MB. I think honestly it would have been an improvement over the situation today, which is Turkey increasingly descending into a one-party dictatorship and purging anyone who doesn't toe the line while planning to engage in ... that's exactly what happened after Sisi and the Egyptian military crushed the Muslim Brotherhood, though?
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Oct 12, 2019 23:24
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Darth Walrus posted:... that's exactly what happened after Sisi and the Egyptian military crushed the Muslim Brotherhood, though? The Turkish military has a history of couping and then reverting to the usual sort of democratic state of things in Turkey. It's likely that had they done the needful and blasted Erdo into bite size bits, there would be elections for a return to civilian control coming up around now (no Kurds and Islamist candidates allowed).
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Oct 12, 2019 23:33
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I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Turkey would NEVER make a play for aleppo right guys It's way too late for that, they had their chance to test Russian resolve before the regime captured the city, but instead they pulled fighters away from the defense of the city to kill Kurds. No way does Russia give it away now. Capturing Aleppo today is basically the same thing as overthrowing the regime entirely and installing vassal rebels to govern a rump Syrian state, because winning Aleppo is when everyone more or less agreed the regime won the war. If someone was able to roll in and take that from them, nothing would be safe. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 23:40 on Oct 12, 2019 |
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Oct 12, 2019 23:37
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GreyjoyBastard posted:also the Turkish military, specifically, actually has a history of resuming something resembling actual democracy after overthrowing a dude You should read up on the history of the relationship between the turkish military and kurds, kurdish communists, and leftists in general.
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Oct 12, 2019 23:40
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Sinteres posted:It's way too late for that, they had their chance to test Russian resolve before the regime captured the city, but instead they pulled fighters away from the defense of the city to kill Kurds. No way does Russia give it away now. Capturing Aleppo today is basically the same thing as overthrowing the regime entirely and installing vassal rebels to govern a rump Syrian state, because winning Aleppo is when everyone more or less agreed the regime won the war. If someone was able to roll in and take that from them, nothing would be safe. Russia cares about latakia and their other syrian ports. However Turkey controls the hellespont. Defeating the rebellion at aleppo was merely an easy way to crush morale and hope with little downside. Aleppo industry is beyond destroyed with no short expectation of when it will be a functioning industrial city again. Turkey wants rumps on their souther border. They may not stop at the loving euphrates. That would be a real ball clencher wouldnt it?
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Oct 12, 2019 23:58
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Our entire dipshit congress should watch this WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Turkey would NEVER make a play for aleppo right guys People are probably sleeping on Turkey's actual intentions. Syria is in no way whatsoever prepared to stop any meaningful Turkish action and it's extremely up in the air if Russia would be willing to strike turkish forces, which is about the only thing likely to dissuade them from doing whatever they want. As a legal thing, they've been putting a ton of effort into selling this as a defensive move which keeps them at least arguably under the protection of NATO mutual defense agreements. Erdogan is definitely not one to be especially reigned in by any kind of realistic limits and if he thinks he can get away with it he probably will do really whatever he wants. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 00:24 on Oct 13, 2019 |
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Oct 13, 2019 00:20
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gently caress https://twitter.com/brett_mcgurk/status/1183112864908894208?s=21
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Oct 13, 2019 00:56
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this is too hosed up for my brain
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Oct 13, 2019 00:59
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suck my woke dick posted:The Turkish military has a history of couping and then reverting to the usual sort of democratic state of things in Turkey. It's likely that had they done the needful and blasted Erdo into bite size bits, there would be elections for a return to civilian control coming up around now (no Kurds and Islamist candidates allowed). They only killed the guy they couped during the first coup. The 1960 one.
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Oct 13, 2019 01:10
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the gently caress is that second reply from turkish guy
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Oct 13, 2019 02:22
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Russia cares about latakia and their other syrian ports. However Turkey controls the hellespont. Defeating the rebellion at aleppo was merely an easy way to crush morale and hope with little downside. Aleppo industry is beyond destroyed with no short expectation of when it will be a functioning industrial city again. Herstory Begins Now posted:People are probably sleeping on Turkey's actual intentions. Syria is in no way whatsoever prepared to stop any meaningful Turkish action and it's extremely up in the air if Russia would be willing to strike turkish forces, which is about the only thing likely to dissuade them from doing whatever they want. As a legal thing, they've been putting a ton of effort into selling this as a defensive move which keeps them at least arguably under the protection of NATO mutual defense agreements. I think you're both dramatically overestimating how much the world would sit by if Turkey just started outright conquering territory without any kind of pretext. You can get away with a lot if you're powerful and if you can come up with a reasonable sounding explanation, but at some point there's going to be push back if you tell everyone to gently caress yourself and invade everything around you, because other countries start wondering if they're next. Are there some people in Turkey who fantasize about capturing cities like Mosul and Aleppo? Sure. And there are people in Russia who fantasize about reestablishing Soviet borders and reclaiming Alaska, but that poo poo ain't happening. Yes, Turkey has some leverage with which to negotiate terms with Russia, but they're still the clearly weaker power, and other NATO countries weren't particularly interested in standing by them when they shot down that Russian plane a few years ago (which is one of the things that ultimately led to Erdogan apologizing to Putin and entering the three party negotiations with them and Iran), and there's even less reason to think they would now. The idea that Turkey is now a superpower that can magically do whatever they want just because Erdogan bribed/tricked/convinced an uninformed and insanely corrupt US president who owns property in Istanbul that Kurd lives don't matter is a massive stretch. This is like watching Russia claim Crimea and thinking Kiev was next, and then maybe Warsaw.
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Oct 13, 2019 02:22
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Really, that's kind of my hope here - that they overextend in some way due to dreamin' dat sweet Neo-Ottoman dream, which eventually (after like...a few years) leads everyone to sanction and bankrupt their economy first, and then push their poo poo in jointly, because by that point they will have made enemies of everyone around them. Heck...it happened with ISIS on a smaller scale and they had pretty amazing military for their size, so for the same to happen globally it would not be that impossible. Just that it'd likely take a while and during that time yea...a lot of people will die that really shouldn't.
CrazyLoon fucked around with this message at 03:04 on Oct 13, 2019 |
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Oct 13, 2019 03:01
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Grape posted:Yes? This isn't new, Turkey has acquired clients from the various debris of the various northern rebels over the years of the conflict. Along with their own dudes they'd be putting these guys into action too. yeah my point was more mocking the idea that these are run of the mill militias rather than what they are which is repurposed nusra and ISIS squads
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Oct 13, 2019 03:12
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It's a selfish point, but this poo poo is loving with my marriage and moving plans. SO is a refugee, but is Hazara so we don't know if her family will be part of any colonizing wave. We've been putting things off until UNHCR relocates her family but that kinda looks like it will never happen. State doesn't tell us anything and the refugee population are basically kept as prisoners in the towns they're kept in. People are moved extremely quickly and without warning on occasion. Worried that they're gonna be shipped off to live under the rule of ISIS 2.0 and there won't be anything I can do in time to stop it. It's all kinda bullshit and I feel really loving tired.
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Oct 13, 2019 03:19
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CrazyLoon posted:Really, that's kind of my hope here - that they overextend in some way due to dreamin' dat sweet Neo-Ottoman dream, which eventually (after like...a few years) leads everyone to sanction and bankrupt their economy first, and then push their poo poo in jointly, because by that point they will have made enemies of everyone around them. Heck...it happened with ISIS on a smaller scale and they had pretty amazing military for their size, so for the same to happen globally it would not be that impossible. Just that it'd likely take a while and during that time yea...a lot of people will die that really shouldn't. You know for all the poo poo I've talked, the last thing I also want to wish is Turkey the place suffering on that level. It's a beautiful cool rear end land, caught in a drat similar fever dream where a shitload of chuds are dancing to the tune of a narcissistic madman that too many of us are getting to know personally in our own woods. No ideal end game leads to Turkey having to be crushed like that.
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Oct 13, 2019 03:30
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Sinteres posted:I think you're both dramatically overestimating how much the world would sit by if Turkey just started outright conquering territory without any kind of pretext. You can get away with a lot if you're powerful and if you can come up with a reasonable sounding explanation, but at some point there's going to be push back if you tell everyone to gently caress yourself and invade everything around you, because other countries start wondering if they're next. Are there some people in Turkey who fantasize about capturing cities like Mosul and Aleppo? Sure. And there are people in Russia who fantasize about reestablishing Soviet borders and reclaiming Alaska, but that poo poo ain't happening. I'm not saying it is super likely, but I'm not saying it isn't likely either. Turkey is one of the largest militaries on the planet and if they are going to be stopped, who is going to stop them? Previously they were constrained by American soft power projection and a desire to integrate into the EU. As a military thing, no one is going to try to get into a war with turkey in their back yard in an area with a ton of turkish-friendly militia floating around, too. Russia certainly isn't, and the weaker the relationship between the US and Turkey becomes, the happier they are. Russia has considerable interest in bringing Turkey into its fold and you better believe china does not give one solitary gently caress about a muslim majority minority group in the middle east, though they, too, are interested in the gradual american weakening. Basically if they decided to annex a few regions of syria, who would stop them? Previously the answer would be 'us soft power' would be a major part of the response, but the US is rapidly working to get completely out of that game. Iran wouldn't be thrilled, but Iran also likes the kurds only the tiniest bit more than Turkey does. Until there's some credible explanation of what would keep him from doing it, it seems entirely within the realm of possibility.
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Oct 13, 2019 03:53
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Sorry if this has been discussed and I missed it, but am I crazy or is this escalating insanely fast? Torke khar
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Oct 13, 2019 03:59
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Mixodorian posted:Sorry if this has been discussed and I missed it, but am I crazy or is this escalating insanely fast? even for what it is it's gone pretty balls out pretty fast yea. Like, Turkey clearly knew it was just a matter of time before enough NATO/UN/whatever voices got together and told Trump he was loving up in whatever terms it takes to make him understand (puppet show, maybe?), so they went from zero to ethnic cleansing REAL fast.
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Oct 13, 2019 04:02
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Mixodorian posted:Sorry if this has been discussed and I missed it, but am I crazy or is this escalating insanely fast? No, its been years in the making. Turkey has threatened to do exactly this for months and now they're finally doing it.
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Oct 13, 2019 04:02
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Count Roland posted:No, its been years in the making. Turkey has threatened to do exactly this for months and now they're finally doing it. Oh I know they’ve wanted it, just like Saudi Arabia eventually wants to murder Iran. It’s just surreal to see them actually go literally all out as soon as the opportunity came. I’m also curious if this is the first time one NATO country has fired at another intentionally and pretending it was an accident. It hasn’t been a week and things are already entirely hosed. Insanity.
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Oct 13, 2019 04:08
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Grape posted:You know for all the poo poo I've talked, the last thing I also want to wish is Turkey the place suffering on that level. It's a beautiful cool rear end land, caught in a drat similar fever dream where a shitload of chuds are dancing to the tune of a narcissistic madman that too many of us are getting to know personally in our own woods. Oh, when it comes to the general populace in the country? Absolutely. It's easy to lose sight of it, when the assholes are always the loudest and when the good ones get punished for trying to be as loud by the government. I mean poo poo...my brother visited Istanbul right before that coup attempt and met so many chill and great folks that were pissed off at Erdogan like hell even back then...and even now his party lost the vote overwhelmingly in it, so it's safe to say places like that still very much so don't like this BS one bit. I know there's a lot of Turks out there that utterly loathe what their country's become. Just like there's a lot of Poles that hate their own rear end in a top hat government tacitly encouraging poo poo like the hate mobs that throw rocks at LGBT marchers...in countries with this many people, there are always millions who absolutely are not shitheads in any way and just feel trapped in their own country by all this. CrazyLoon fucked around with this message at 04:21 on Oct 13, 2019 |
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Oct 13, 2019 04:18
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Mixodorian posted:Oh I know they’ve wanted it, just like Saudi Arabia eventually wants to murder Iran. It’s just surreal to see them actually go literally all out as soon as the opportunity came. There have been blue on blue incidents for years just in Northern Syria, the US has done blue on blue strikes in Afghanistan to NATO members with whom they absolutely had the grid info for, and you're not demonstrating you're hearing: this has been in the works for months and telegraphed for years, ever since the assault into Afrin wrapped up. You're saying "things are entirely hosed" like this is some novel state of affairs. Literally four years ago today the SDF only was a glimmer in some militia captains' eye, and only came into being because Russia and the USA put aside their differences to tag-team the neo-Takfiri caliphate so the governments of Syria and Iraq alike didn't fall together, agreeing to leave this vague coalition of Kurdish and Arab militias well enough alone.
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Oct 13, 2019 04:19
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Herstory Begins Now posted:I'm not saying it is super likely, but I'm not saying it isn't likely either. Turkey is one of the largest militaries on the planet and if they are going to be stopped, who is going to stop them? Previously they were constrained by American soft power projection and a desire to integrate into the EU. As a military thing, no one is going to try to get into a war with turkey in their back yard in an area with a ton of turkish-friendly militia floating around, too. Russia certainly isn't, and the weaker the relationship between the US and Turkey becomes, the happier they are. Russia has considerable interest in bringing Turkey into its fold and you better believe china does not give one solitary gently caress about a muslim majority minority group in the middle east, though they, too, are interested in the gradual american weakening. Basically if they decided to annex a few regions of syria, who would stop them? If it was that easy, Turkey would have won the war for the rebels years ago. Russia would absolutely not just sit there and watch Turkey undo all the work they've spent years on just because they want to play Ottoman, and Turkey's allies would abandon them if they walked into a conflict they couldn't handle on their own. NATO's a defensive alliance, not a suicide pact where everyone promises to jump off a bridge just because Turkey felt like it. Of course potentially losing access to the Mediterranean would suck, but wtf good is that access if they can't defend their bigget military operation outside their borders since the Cold War?
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Oct 13, 2019 04:22
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Mixodorian posted:Oh I know they’ve wanted it, just like Saudi Arabia eventually wants to murder Iran. It’s just surreal to see them actually go literally all out as soon as the opportunity came. Turkey already controls a significant portion of northern Syria from its previous incursions. Nobody was taking Turkey's threats as being idle, nor of they being impossible to carry out. US armed forces were the only thing preventing it. The only surprise is that US policy changed literally overnight instead of in some gradual draw-back, though there's still some opportunity for the US military to drag its feet.
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Oct 13, 2019 04:32
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Zurakara posted:It's a selfish point, but this poo poo is loving with my marriage and moving plans. SO is a refugee, but is Hazara so we don't know if her family will be part of any colonizing wave. We've been putting things off until UNHCR relocates her family but that kinda looks like it will never happen. State doesn't tell us anything and the refugee population are basically kept as prisoners in the towns they're kept in. People are moved extremely quickly and without warning on occasion. Worried that they're gonna be shipped off to live under the rule of ISIS 2.0 and there won't be anything I can do in time to stop it. wait what the gently caress? I kinda want to hear a little more context. Let me see if I have this straight. The family is Afghani, but they are in Turkey and are afraid they will be resettled in Syria. Do I have that right? That'd be awful, I'd rather be stuck in Iran. Forcefully dumping refugees in another country has to violate all kinds of international agreements, or at least so I'd hope
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Oct 13, 2019 04:42
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So at some point the US does have to go "Other countries keep taking shots at us, have to put the hammer down." right? I mean, the US can't just accept being bombed by a NATO country and let it go for the world to see it as okay cause the US won't do anything...right?
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Oct 13, 2019 04:43
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