|
GreyjoyBastard posted:who's actually going to support Turkey if we somehow god forbid get in a shooting war though Russia is so mad about this that they veto'd the UNSC resolution to condemn Turkey's attack. I just came back from a pro-Rojava demonstration. Some demands were sellable and realistically achievable, such as cancelling all arms export licenses to Turkey. Some were less so, such as cutting all diplomatic ties with Turkey. 
|
#
?
Oct 12, 2019 13:16
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 26, 2024 12:47 |
|
|
Herstory Begins Now posted:You can tell that he hasn't devoted a single millisecond of thought to the question of, 'but should we put american lives in harms way for this?' Imagine being the global hegemon and using that awesome power to... *checks notes* run a mercenary company.
|
|
#
?
Oct 12, 2019 13:21
|
|
|
Nenonen posted:Russia is so mad about this that they veto'd the UNSC resolution to condemn Turkey's attack. Yeah, I somehow have a feeling that both they and Iran are actually okay with this. They just have to make some angry noises about it. Assad has been told to shut up and take it and maybe have a go at the Kurds himself.
|
|
#
?
Oct 12, 2019 14:24
|
|
|
When the Arab League wants the Security Council to step in, but Russia doesn't, you know the fix is in. On top of Trump pretending he's not endorsing the invasion, just getting Americans out of harm's way, while also refusing to do anything at the UN to condemn it. Trump's already legally obligated to slap sanctions on Turkey for buying the S-400, but hasn't done that, so I'm sure he'll get right on implementing whatever sanctions package Congress ends up authorizing.
|
|
#
?
Oct 12, 2019 15:05
|
|
|
The Arab league is a toilet paper organization anyways who cares what they think.
|
|
#
?
Oct 12, 2019 15:24
|
|
|
Al-Saqr posted:The Arab league is a toilet paper organization anyways who cares what they think. They are, but they did kick out Syria, while Russia is an ally of the regime, and the League seems more upset about the invasion than Russia does. That said, obviously the Arab League is led by states that have a problem with Erdogan's foreign policy for other reasons, whereas Russia is thinking that securing a good relationship with Turkey is worth more than helping a pariah state it's already spent immense effort saving, so there are admittedly complicating factors. I guess I was mostly just saying I doubt anything that's happening is coming as a big surprise to Putin, or that he's too displeased about any of it.
|
|
#
?
Oct 12, 2019 15:47
|
|
|
Turkey is at odds with Egypt at the moment over a gas deal Egypt, Greece and Cyprus have been doing together off of Cyprus. Turkey keeps rattling sabres at the Greek Cypriots because Turkey keeps claiming the offshore stuff is in North Cyprus's zone (none of the other three countries recognize NC). Sending navy ships around and scaring ships trying to survey and stuff. I'm not sure how major in the Arab League Egypt is, but they could be pushing some of the opposition over that. https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20191008-cyprus-greece-egypt-call-on-turkey-to-end-provocative-actions/
|
|
#
?
Oct 12, 2019 15:59
|
|
|
Erdogan was also probably the world leader who was most furious about the Egyptian coup, and was extremely vocal about it.
|
|
#
?
Oct 12, 2019 16:03
|
|
|
There's also the case of Turkish-Saudi relations which weren't really that good before and certainly weren't improved by how the whole Khashoggi business went down.
|
|
#
?
Oct 12, 2019 16:05
|
|
|
The Arab League is trash, has zero authority or any power of any kind (soft or hard).
|
|
#
?
Oct 12, 2019 16:05
|
|
|
Fairly worthwhile point made in this thread: https://twitter.com/hxhassan/status/1182983066605760512?s=21
|
|
#
?
Oct 12, 2019 16:09
|
|
|
Russia has no trouble backing Erdogan here because 1) it weakens the western coalition 2) it weakens the only ostensibly pro-US faction in Syria 3) there is less danger of Turkey continuing to occupy northern Syria indefinitely than there is of US-backed YPG holding onto Syrian Kurdistan - Turkish army will eventually have to withdraw, and their FSA buddies are less of an obstacle to SAA than YPG would be So while in the short period the Turkish operation is against Russia's and Syria's interests, I believe that in the long run it is a net gain to Assad and Putin. However - this being Middle East, a year from now everything can be reversed as Caliphate 2.0 conquers Istanbul and President Buttigieg sends troops to look for WMDs in Damascus and it's so frustrating!
|
|
#
?
Oct 12, 2019 17:00
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/ITCTofficial/status/1183051990353547266?s=20
|
|
#
?
Oct 12, 2019 17:14
|
|
|
Nenonen posted:3) there is less danger of Turkey continuing to occupy northern Syria indefinitely than there is of US-backed YPG holding onto Syrian Kurdistan - Turkish army will eventually have to withdraw, and their FSA buddies are less of an obstacle to SAA than YPG would be well yeah the turkish army doesn't need to formally occupy northern syria when they have a newly revived ISIS and thousands of salafis to do it for them. and i mean long term this is also good for the US too, tbh. letting a NATO ally taking over the running of that part of syria helps you repair your relationship with them, a little gift to show them you still value the friendship.
|
|
#
?
Oct 12, 2019 17:17
|
|
|
gh0stpinballa posted:and i mean long term this is also good for the US too, tbh. letting a NATO ally taking over the running of that part of syria helps you repair your relationship with them, a little gift to show them you still value the friendship. Nobody is buying that, however. Everybody in NATO sees this for what it is. The EU is already furious that this was allowed to happen. Turkey is practically a NATO member in name only, used just as a buffer for stemming refugee flow and nothing else.
|
|
#
?
Oct 12, 2019 17:21
|
|
|
CommieGIR posted:Nobody is buying that, however. Everybody in NATO sees this for what it is. The EU is already furious that this was allowed to happen. buying what? i don't see how this contradicts what i said. the US has been planning to ditch the kurds for a long time. everybody knew that. they have now ditched them. it was done in a farcical and abrupt way but it was always going to be done. the business and strategic relationship with turkey is more important to the US than continuing to fund a leftist project with an alarming tendency to coordinate with damascus. they think by giving turkey free reign they can draw them away from russia. time will tell if they calculated right. the EU and the other NATO states can pretend to be furious all they want, it won't amount to much more than a strongly worded letter to trump. it's a stitch up that's been years in the making and as usual it's civilians who will pay the biggest price.
|
|
#
?
Oct 12, 2019 17:30
|
|
|
gh0stpinballa posted:buying what? i don't see how this contradicts what i said. the US has been planning to ditch the kurds for a long time. everybody knew that. they have now ditched them. it was done in a farcical and abrupt way but it was always going to be done. the business and strategic relationship with turkey is more important to the US than continuing to fund a leftist project with an alarming tendency to coordinate with damascus. they think by giving turkey free reign they can draw them away from russia. time will tell if they calculated right. the EU and the other NATO states can pretend to be furious all they want, it won't amount to much more than a strongly worded letter to trump. LMAO. Its not even well thought out. C'mon. Trump has property in Turkey, and Turkey has likely been taking lessons from their new best buds Russia on how to manipulate Trump, because he's easy to manipulate. That's it. Its not some magic "Maintain relations with a NATO member and maybe draw them back." Our loving moron of a president got social engineered into giving Turkey what they wanted because he is compromised by his business dealings and DIRECTLY is now responsible for the return of ISIS, and Turkey is likely benefiting of this with Russia's help, not ours or NATOs. https://twitter.com/joshrogin/status/1183043973323067394?s=20 Russia is the beneficiary. Every god damned time. Regardless of if Trump is kompromat or not, every action he takes benefits them.
|
|
#
?
Oct 12, 2019 17:33
|
|
|
Nenonen posted:Turkish army will eventually have to withdraw, I uh, wouldn't bet money on this.
|
|
#
?
Oct 12, 2019 17:37
|
|
|
I honestly thought 2017 was the year I'd last hear about ISIS being a threat.
|
|
#
?
Oct 12, 2019 17:39
|
|
|
Grouchio posted:I honestly thought 2017 was the year I'd last hear about ISIS being a threat. They've been much too useful a tool for that. ISIS was so publically terrible that the West became publically accepting of Assad and his regime again.
|
|
#
?
Oct 12, 2019 17:40
|
|
|
CommieGIR posted:LMAO. Its not even well thought out. C'mon. yeah i...have no interest at all in the russiagate conspiracy theory. any flattering of his ego has only sped up what was an inevitable outcome. his personal business dealings do not conflict with what was an inevitable betrayal. like i say, he's been perhaps more crude about it but that's it. CommieGIR posted:That's it. Its not some magic "Maintain relations with a NATO member and maybe draw them back." Our loving moron of a president got social engineered into giving Turkey what they wanted and DIRECTLY is now responsible for the return of ISIS, and Turkey is likely benefiting of this with Russia's help, not ours or NATOs. so we just discount the US' goals in the region and history with the kurds, and pretend that strategic interests and financial arrangements are...magic? what? fascinating how the people who think the CIA care enough about the republic to blow the whistle wrt ukraine are somehow powerless to stop him enabling a potential genocide.
|
|
#
?
Oct 12, 2019 17:44
|
|
|
I remember reading that piece of poo poo Henry Kissinger (he still alive) arguing attacking ISIS would be a bad thing and they should spread as much into Syria and Iraq as possible.
|
|
#
?
Oct 12, 2019 17:45
|
|
|
Less Claypool posted:I remember reading that piece of poo poo Henry Kissinger (he still alive) arguing attacking ISIS would be a bad thing and they should spread as much into Syria and Iraq as possible. i remember this too, there is no way the US state would be allowing trump to do this if they didn't think there was an angle to be worked
|
|
#
?
Oct 12, 2019 17:47
|
|
|
gh0stpinballa posted:so we just discount the US' goals in the region and history with the kurds, and pretend that strategic interests and financial arrangements are...magic? what? fascinating how the people who think the CIA care enough about the republic to blow the whistle wrt ukraine are somehow powerless to stop him enabling a potential genocide. Yes. We do. Because Trump doesn't understand nor care about those loving arrangements. These guys are whistleblowing, but are not going to straight pull a coup, they are comfortable other than that. gh0stpinballa posted:yeah i...have no interest at all in the russiagate conspiracy theory. any flattering of his ego has only sped up what was an inevitable outcome. his personal business dealings do not conflict with what was an inevitable betrayal. like i say, he's been perhaps more crude about it but that's it. Its not loving Russiagate. This isn't piss tape or kompromat poo poo. Russia doesn't need to do that because Trump is an easy to manipulate moron. gh0stpinballa posted:i remember this too, there is no way the US state would be allowing trump to do this if they didn't think there was an angle to be worked You mean the State Department? Led by Pompeo, who is also a loving moron, who has largely squandered any diplomatic power we had to enable Trump's pathetic and desperate corrupt poo poo? That state department? The one that likely OPENLY enabled Trump's little Ukraine project? For someone questioning the CIA's dedication via whistleblowers, and you think there's a brain cell left at the State Department? CommieGIR fucked around with this message at 17:52 on Oct 12, 2019 |
|
#
?
Oct 12, 2019 17:48
|
|
|
CommieGIR posted:Its not loving Russiagate. This isn't piss tape or kompromat poo poo. Russia doesn't need to do that because Trump is an easy to manipulate moron. if the rooskies know he's real easy to manipulate, which i agree he is, then surely the pentagon or whatever does. and if they know that, which they do, why don't they flatter him into reversing his decision here? if his decision really conflicts with their strategy then surely they'd be doing something to con him into changing course, no? despite thinking he's an idiot you also seem to have a weird Great Man analysis of him that posits his idiocy and corruption as superpowers the US state is powerless to push against. bizarre.
|
|
#
?
Oct 12, 2019 17:53
|
|
|
CommieGIR posted:You mean the State Department? Led by Pompeo, who is also a loving moron, who has largely squandered any diplomatic power we had to enable Trump's pathetic and desperate corrupt poo poo? That state department? The one that likely OPENLY enabled Trump's little Ukraine project? For someone questioning the CIA's dedication via whistleblowers, and you think there's a brain cell left at the State Department? i've never been yelled at so much by someone who shares my fundamental position here. where have i said they're not all dangerous morons playing chess (badly) with people's lives? we're all pissed as hell about this dude, but i am simply pointing out that this betrayal, for a variety of reasons, was always coming, and trump didn't need to be president for it to happen. come on.
|
|
#
?
Oct 12, 2019 17:56
|
|
|
gh0stpinballa posted:if the rooskies know he's real easy to manipulate, which i agree he is, then surely the pentagon or whatever does. and if they know that, which they do, why don't they flatter him into reversing his decision here? if his decision really conflicts with their strategy then surely they'd be doing something to con him into changing course, no? Ah yes, the Pentagon. Surely Trump, a man who OPENLY said he knew more than all the generals, is likely to listen to them Pentagon doesn't have a Trump tower to sway him with, or money to toss in his families personal fund. gh0stpinballa posted:despite thinking he's an idiot you also seem to have a weird Great Man analysis of him that posits his idiocy and corruption as superpowers the US state is powerless to push against. bizarre. Uh...yeah? He's not a Great Man. He's a corrupt, stupid, man in a position that grants him immense and almost unregulated power. Hell, his 'co-equal' Branch of the government, Congress, can't even reign him in because he used the magic of "Ignore the law" and he has a DOJ, the OTHER co-equal branch of the Government that is supposed to reign him in, that he largely controls lock, stock and barrel through Barr. He's not a smart man. He's not a great man. He's a corrupt idiot that surrounded himself with corrupt yes-men with no scruples.
|
|
#
?
Oct 12, 2019 17:57
|
|
|
gh0stpinballa posted:i've never been yelled at so much by someone who shares my fundamental position here. That's just the D&D experience. The average poster thinks exactly like you but they have to disagree with you on every point so that you have to waste hours of your life just to end the discussion. The average D&D poster also loves to have the last word and will never stop arguing even if he agrees with you.
|
|
#
?
Oct 12, 2019 18:13
|
|
|
Nenonen posted:Russia is so mad about this that they veto'd the UNSC resolution to condemn Turkey's attack. I think anything less than the diplomatic response levied at Russia over Crimea should be considered a cop-out. Attempts at annexing territory — nevermind the thinly veiled ambition of doing it through ethnic cleansing — needs to be hit down on hard.
|
|
#
?
Oct 12, 2019 18:39
|
|
|
gh0stpinballa posted:i remember this too, there is no way the US state would be allowing trump to do this if they didn't think there was an angle to be worked There is no Deep State. It certainly would be nice to have in this situation, but it doesn't exist in reality. The StateDep was gutted as part of Bannon, Flynns, Gorka etc attempt to run a Shadow Government with the White House micromanaging everything, before they collapsed into in-fighting and got cleaned out. Now all that's left to manage Foreign Policy is Trump and whichever aid or politician spoke to him last.
|
|
#
?
Oct 12, 2019 18:53
|
|
|
Conspiratiorist posted:There is no Deep State. It certainly would be nice to have in this situation, but it doesn't exist in reality. Bannon, Flynn and Gorka were all driven out by the traditional establishment so these examples might not prove the point you're trying to make.
|
|
#
?
Oct 12, 2019 18:55
|
|
|
The traditional establishment didn't do poo poo - Trump's administration is a revolving door because nobody can stand the clusterfuck it is besides Stephen loving Miller.
|
|
#
?
Oct 12, 2019 18:58
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/barbarastarrcnn/status/1183056454657478658?s=19
|
|
#
?
Oct 12, 2019 19:00
|
|
|
Miller is experienced at surviving and thriving in the 'backstab everyone else to entertain the Fuhrer' environment. His similarities to Goebbels are striking
|
|
#
?
Oct 12, 2019 19:01
|
|
|
gh0stpinballa posted:if the rooskies know he's real easy to manipulate, which i agree he is, then surely the pentagon or whatever does. and if they know that, which they do, why don't they flatter him into reversing his decision here? if his decision really conflicts with their strategy then surely they'd be doing something to con him into changing course, no? if you can stop for a moment and think back all the way to last year, you might remember this already happened. Trump declared Turkey could have Syria or whatever and said all US forces were withdrawing. The Pentagon and foreign policy establishment then scrambled to say no, actually that's not happened, and the withdrawal just kind of stopped without explanation. Since that moment the Turkish invasion was probably inevitable since even though the decision was reversed, Trump proved that he really wasn't interested in northern Syria. However that's clearly not what military and civilian American leaders believed, since apparently all of them who have said anything except for Trump were convinced that there would be no reversal on US commitments to the YPG. It might be leaning towards Great Man theory (Stupid Man theory?) but it's pretty hard to make the argument that this decision is somehow reflective of a silent realpolitik consensus within the military and Federal bureaucracy. This is all Trump, and the CIA and military have no real power to force him to change course if this is what he wants. The only mechanisms to check his impulses are tangling implementation of policy in bureaucracy, veto proof legislation, and leaking information to the press. One reason you might be surprised at the kind of pushback you are getting itt is that suggesting the CIA or any other Federal agency has any power to stop this is basically a conspiracy on the level of the most absurd and extreme Russiagate poo poo. There's no reason to believe this was inevitable except in the sense that Trump had clearly set his mind to implementing this, but with a different President things could have gone very differently. Nothing about any of this was inevitable.
|
|
#
?
Oct 12, 2019 19:01
|
|
|
God I wish that coup pilot in 2016 had taken the shot when he had the chance.
|
|
#
?
Oct 12, 2019 19:05
|
|
|
Squalid posted:There's no reason to believe this was inevitable except in the sense that Trump had clearly set his mind to implementing this, but with a different President things could have gone very differently. Nothing about any of this was inevitable. this is just not correct at all. we had every reason to know this was coming because the US always betrays the kurds.
|
|
#
?
Oct 12, 2019 19:09
|
|
|
Vernii posted:God I wish that coup pilot in 2016 had taken the shot when he had the chance. Erdogan would become a martyr and the AKP would be just put up another guy.
|
|
#
?
Oct 12, 2019 19:09
|
|
|
Squalid posted:if you can stop for a moment and think back all the way to last year, you might remember this already happened. Trump declared Turkey could have Syria or whatever and said all US forces were withdrawing. The Pentagon and foreign policy establishment then scrambled to say no, actually that's not happened, and the withdrawal just kind of stopped without explanation. Since that moment the Turkish invasion was probably inevitable since even though the decision was reversed, Trump proved that he really wasn't interested in northern Syria. However that's clearly not what military and civilian American leaders believed, since apparently all of them who have said anything except for Trump were convinced that there would be no reversal on US commitments to the YPG. Exactly. We know Trump snorts Adderal and eats Sudafed like candy so acknowledging he acts like an erratic paranoid schizo shouldn't be controversial - all of his wildest declarations have always come as a sudden WH or live announcement after he's had a conversation or phonecall with someone, followed by governmental institutions scrambling to damage control or stall/reverse the decision with whatever options they have, which are limited when you don't want to cross the line into outright insubordination. The current situation wasn't some 5D chess move: Trump had an unscheduled call with Erdogan, immediately made an overnight announcement of the pullout, and the TFSA (who were already on attack posture, because this is like the 4th time Erdogan has played chicken with the Syrian border) rolled in before anyone could assemble a coherent response to Trump's insanity.
|
|
#
?
Oct 12, 2019 19:15
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 26, 2024 12:47 |
|
|
mila kunis posted:Erdogan would become a martyr and the AKP would be just put up another guy. Doubtful given they had seized a good chunk of the senior government and the coup was only defeated by Erdogan personally mobilizing his base. The entire thing came very, very close to succeeding which makes its failure even more tragic.
|
|
#
?
Oct 12, 2019 19:20
|
|