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Squalid posted:wait what the gently caress? I kinda want to hear a little more context. Let me see if I have this straight. The family is Afghani, but they are in Turkey and are afraid they will be resettled in Syria. Do I have that right? That'd be awful, I'd rather be stuck in Iran. Forcefully dumping refugees in another country has to violate all kinds of international agreements, or at least so I'd hope The way being one of Turkey's many refugees works is you live where they tell you (in this case a dying coal town that everybody who can moves out of, causing a labor shortage), and you never get to leave that town without a pass, which they are unlikely to give you. They have good (well... widely available) mass transport between the towns, but there are mandatory id checks pretty frequently. You can evade this by hitchhiking in some areas, but not for long distances or into/out of high security zones like major cities. The refugees Turkey is planning on using to colonize the Kurds out of existence will likely not have much choice in the manner, although I'm sure some will be enthusiastic about it. Also Turkey doesn't exactly like the Hazara, for a number of reasons.
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Oct 13, 2019 05:35
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I used to work with a Hazara refugee and one time he told me he couldn't help being afraid when he saw men with beards on the bus. So yeah, it would probably be bad for your relatives to get dumped in a northern Syria governed by whatever weirdos Turkey puts in charge.gh0stpinballa posted:yeah my point was more mocking the idea that these are run of the mill militias rather than what they are which is repurposed nusra and ISIS squads this is probably not a good way to describe the people Turkey will put in charge. While the Turkish backed militias will almost certainly be radical Islamists they will be organizationally distinct from both Nusra and ISIS, and probably practically speaking will be rivals and enemies of both groups. In contrast to those groups which are driven by a sincere ideological commitment to radical Sunni Islamism the Turkish backed groups are likely to be much more mercenary and motivated by personal gain, with the Islamism taking a backseat to their raison d'etre, that being the personal enrichment of militiamen and their leaders.
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Oct 13, 2019 05:46
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Gatts posted:So at some point the US does have to go "Other countries keep taking shots at us, have to put the hammer down." right? I mean, the US can't just accept being bombed by a NATO country and let it go for the world to see it as okay cause the US won't do anything...right? Normally sure but the US currently has a senile gameshow host for a president so who knows lol
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Oct 13, 2019 05:48
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Gatts posted:So at some point the US does have to go "Other countries keep taking shots at us, have to put the hammer down." right? I mean, the US can't just accept being bombed by a NATO country and let it go for the world to see it as okay cause the US won't do anything...right? Destroying NATO might be enough for trump to lose the re-election so doubt he will shoot back yet.
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Oct 13, 2019 05:49
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Gatts posted:So at some point the US does have to go "Other countries keep taking shots at us, have to put the hammer down." right? I mean, the US can't just accept being bombed by a NATO country and let it go for the world to see it as okay cause the US won't do anything...right? Still no indication that they actually killed anyone, so we've still swept worse under the rug before. It just shows how stupid the process has been though, even aside from the decision to withdraw being good or bad--either we shouldn't have anyone anywhere near that area at this point, or Turkey should have very clear instructions to stay the gently caress away from Kobane or else. Who knows what exactly Trump agreed to on the phone call, or how accurately he relayed it to the Pentagon, or how much they're dragging their feet. Every level of this is dysfunctional.
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Oct 13, 2019 06:04
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https://twitter.com/Elizrael/status/1183112999332122624?s=20 https://twitter.com/trbrtc/status/1183278678270251008?s=20
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Oct 13, 2019 09:12
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Looks like US troops are leaving the positions and ISIS supporters are breaking free https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1183334932397072384
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Oct 13, 2019 12:44
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There are reports coming out that Tal Abyad has been conquered by Turkey and their Syrian Proxies. With this, the first objective of the Turkish Invasion ( Cutting off the M4 highway and creating a base of operations between Tal Abyad and Ras Al-Ayn, thus seperating the northern border into two) has been accomplished. The real challenge for the turks will be how they'll go about conquering the more Kurdish heavy regions like Kobane and Hasaka and stuff.
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Oct 13, 2019 12:57
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Seems they also managed to help several hundred individual associated with ISIS escape as well https://twitter.com/Josiensor/status/1183342392117780480
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Oct 13, 2019 12:59
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More bad news for the YPG, America is going to withdraw 1,000 troops from northern Syria:- https://twitter.com/afp/status/1183369975303737344?s=21
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Oct 13, 2019 14:16
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Gatts posted:So at some point the US does have to go "Other countries keep taking shots at us, have to put the hammer down." right? I mean, the US can't just accept being bombed by a NATO country and let it go for the world to see it as okay cause the US won't do anything...right? No. I mean if there's casualties or deaths then it increases the odds of a response. Back in '67 Israel blew up a US navy ship, killing and wounding a ton of people. It got brushed off as friendly fire-- a mistake.
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Oct 13, 2019 14:22
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Gatts posted:So at some point the US does have to go "Other countries keep taking shots at us, have to put the hammer down." right? I mean, the US can't just accept being bombed by a NATO country and let it go for the world to see it as okay cause the US won't do anything...right? Realistically, what did you expect the US to do? Bomb turkey with planes that are flying out of Turkish airbases?
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Oct 13, 2019 14:38
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OctaMurk posted:Realistically, what did you expect the US to do? Bomb turkey with planes that are flying out of Turkish airbases? Yes, Yossarian, that is exactly what we expect them to do.
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Oct 13, 2019 14:50
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Reports foreign journalists may have been injured and killed in a Turkish air strike https://twitter.com/jenanmoussa/status/1183396137048461314 https://twitter.com/hishamarafatt/status/1183379524098109440?s=21 https://twitter.com/mutludc/status/1183380966796120064?s=21 Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 16:05 on Oct 13, 2019 |
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Oct 13, 2019 16:00
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Brown Moses posted:Reports foreign journalists may have been injured and killed in a Turkish air strike a lot of guns in that civilian convoy
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Oct 13, 2019 16:26
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YPG throws themselves into the arms of Assad and talk about deals with the regime, although to be honest I think this is desperate bluster and I highly doubt Assad will do much for them since this Turkish operation is completely blessed by Russia so I dont think this will do anything for them:- https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1183405465402785794?s=20 It's really incredible how much of a paper tiger the YPG have proven themselves to be, Afrin, a mountainous area was taken really easily from them and all signs indicate that without the Americans they're going to lose in the north just as quickly. Al-Saqr fucked around with this message at 16:45 on Oct 13, 2019 |
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Oct 13, 2019 16:43
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Al-Saqr posted:It's really incredible how much of a paper tiger the YPG have proven themselves to be, Cool take. Turns out forces deliberately cut off from lethal aid and organized for essentially civil defnese and counter-irregulars warfare aren’t equipped to handle an unopposed state incursion from a modern, large, funded army.
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Oct 13, 2019 16:47
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mlmp08 posted:Cool take. Turns out forces deliberately cut off from lethal aid and organized for essentially civil defnese and counter-irregulars warfare aren’t equipped to handle an unopposed state incursion from a modern, large, funded army. Also I don't think they have any air defenses so the Turkish AF can go wherever it wants unopposed, which is a huge force multiplier.
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Oct 13, 2019 16:52
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We already basically knew ISIS was the better fighting force without air support, so the YPG being on the other end of fighting a war against enemies with air support was obviously going to lead to a poo poo show. It really shows how pathetic the SAA was that they were probably losing the war before Russia saved them despite being the only side of the conflict with an air force. Tbf, the YPG also just destroyed some of their defenses weeks ago because the US wanted to work on confidence building measures with Turkey, and they were in no way expecting this, whereas Turkey was pretty openly massing forces for a long time, so Turkey's advantages go beyond just air power. The YPG's morale must be through the loving floor. Plus they may still hope they can retreat beyond whatever "safe zone" Trump promised Turkey to save their lives, which would really be a more rational thing to do than dying for territory they can't hope to keep against a far superior force if it's a real option. Too bad nobody's really communicating what the actual terms of the deal were! Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 16:57 on Oct 13, 2019 |
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Oct 13, 2019 16:53
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They were also made to dismantle all of their defensive positions at the behest of USA.
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Oct 13, 2019 16:54
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OctaMurk posted:They were also made to dismantle all of their defensive positions at the behest of USA. Oh wow that’s like next level backstabbing.
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Oct 13, 2019 16:56
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Al-Saqr posted:Oh wow that’s like next level backstabbing. Yeah I was worried for a while that Pentagon foot dragging was going to lead to a worst of all worlds when Trump finally snapped and told them to get out for real, but the way it actually played out was worse than anything even super paranoid people would have been likely to come up with. I'm not saying they're equally as responsible as Trump, but it's hard to deny that trying to ignore orders they didn't want to receive just made things worse in the long run.
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Oct 13, 2019 16:59
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Vague Twitter messages are not orders, though. That’s a part of the problem.
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Oct 13, 2019 17:01
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mlmp08 posted:Vague Twitter messages are not orders, though. He said he wanted all US forces out of Syria in December, and instead of finding a way to make that happen, they refocused him on the keeping the oil part of it to spite Iran. Since he never cared about the Kurds, they just got abandoned, while we may or may not continue occupying the oil fields just because we can. For their part, Turkey seems to be making the most of getting the US to back down: https://twitter.com/LucasFoxNews/status/1183369048249245696
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Oct 13, 2019 17:07
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Sinteres posted:He said he wanted all US forces out of Syria in December, That is made up bullshit. Source: POTUS and his words and his policies since then.
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Oct 13, 2019 17:11
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Vasukhani posted:a lot of guns in that civilian convoy yeah whats up with that
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Oct 13, 2019 17:29
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https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1183418230263730178
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Oct 13, 2019 17:29
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mlmp08 posted:That is made up bullshit. Only hearing what they wanted to hear is part of the problem. Yes, of course I blame Trump more than his subordinates, because it's all ultimately his responsibility, but everyone at the Pentagon rapidly returning to business as usual the second he got distracted instead of doing contingency planning for when this came up again was irresponsible too. Foot dragging is one thing, but redirecting him and expecting him to stay redirected instead of changing his mind again was stupid. https://twitter.com/attackerman/status/1183381608948228097 https://twitter.com/BarzanSadiq/status/1183422966375301120 Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 17:57 on Oct 13, 2019 |
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Oct 13, 2019 17:34
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Al-Saqr posted:Oh wow that’s like next level backstabbing. Yeah they did them about as dirty as it gets.
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Oct 13, 2019 18:16
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 uhhh what which side do we root for again
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Oct 13, 2019 18:16
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Al-Saqr posted:It's really incredible how much of a paper tiger the YPG have proven themselves to be, Afrin, a mountainous area was taken really easily from them It was surrounded on two sides by Turkey, and honestly isn't hugely mountainous by Turkish standards anyway.
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Oct 13, 2019 18:18
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frajaq posted:yeah whats up with that The second tweet says the convoy was in the middle of one of the towns, not out on its own. Either way lol at thinking a civilian convoy in a war zone would not have armed guards of some kind.
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Oct 13, 2019 18:20
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frajaq posted:
I think still the Kurds Christ what a shitshow.
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Oct 13, 2019 18:21
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There is just no chance that YPG could stand against a full NATO army, not without heavy fire support or fortified positions. The question is whether they can force Turks to run out of momentum in the coming weeks while maintaining their fighting capability. With Turkish air and artillery superiority this is unlikely, you just can't fight a conventional combined arms army on the same terms if you have one arm tied behind your back. The only way for Kurds to survive is to go unconventional, conduct guerrilla raids and make bomb attacks, or surrender.frajaq posted:
well if SANA says so!
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Oct 13, 2019 18:31
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Al-Saqr posted:Oh wow that’s like next level backstabbing. Not only that but Turkey was allowed to extensively recon Kurd positions beforehand. It's never a question of if but when and how harshly President Deals will backstab you.
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Oct 13, 2019 18:34
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I think the YPG handing over as much as they can to Russia and Assad was really predictable, and honestly I think a backdoor deal was already worked out between Erdogan and Putin in such an eventuality. I honestly think that Erdogan will get his corridor with some russian bases here and there in a transition. I am kinda surprised the YPG/SDF collapsed so quickly, but there's still time to see whether they'll make any dent in the coming few days. If things keep going the way they are and the turks continue to make this level of progress, and Erdogan gets his corridor, he will have struck three birds with one stone: 1) he will have secured a new term and a new gust of popularity as a nationalist hero of turkey for leading them to victory and really upping Turkey's geopolitical weight and reach in the region, I think this will make turks forgive the economic problems and lead him and the AK party to victory next elections. 2) He will now be able to send back millions of syrian refugees, thus eliminating the few real cards the Turkish opposition have on him which is populist xenophobia. and 3) if he settles millions of syrian arab refugees in the area he'll have permanently driven a knife through any realistic dream of a Kurdish statelet on their border. These are incredibly big political and military wins if things keep going the way they are.
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Oct 13, 2019 18:54
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I am sadly remembering a story from a while back where some Kurdish father was so proud of US assistance in rolling up ISIS that he named his son after Donald Trump. It was sort of laughable then but now it's just so loving sad now.
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Oct 13, 2019 18:55
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It looks like the majority of Republican politicians are opposed to this but still too cowardly to directly call out Trump, I wonder how long it'll be before the Secretary of Defense gets thrown under the bus
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Oct 13, 2019 19:14
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Ego-bot posted:It looks like the majority of Republican politicians are opposed to this but still too cowardly to directly call out Trump, I wonder how long it'll be before the Secretary of Defense gets thrown under the bus Congressional republicans are pretty clearly just keeping their heads down hopingthis boows over. Worthless, every single one of them.
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