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Count Roland posted:I don't know what he's talking about in the rest of the tweet though. Who the hell is suggesting the US go to war with Turkey? He's pretending, or maybe stupid enough to believe that the only way to stop the invasion would have been to fight Turkey. IMO Erdogan was clearly bluffing, and the only reason he thought he could get away with it was because he knew Trump had already tried to withdraw before, but Trump may actually believe Erdogan was going to invade even if our tripwire forces remained in the way. If these things really were as simple as 'we have more forces locally, and it would be irrational for you to fight us over this, so we're invading even if you're in the way,' Khruschev would have taken West Berlin. Plus Turkey conveniently had redshirt proxy forces available to bomb to send a message, just as the US bombed a shitload of redshirt Russian mercenaries to establish that the area east of the Euphrates was off limits to the regime. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 13:27 on Oct 14, 2019 |
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Oct 14, 2019 13:08
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I think there's a difference between West Beelin, and a breakaway part of a country thats been traditionally seen as part of it since WWI.
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Oct 14, 2019 13:32
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https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee/status/1183698148335726592
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Oct 14, 2019 13:34
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Shageletic posted:I think there's a difference between West Beelin, and a breakaway part of a country thats been traditionally seen as part of it since WWI. It's not part of Turkey though. The Ottoman Empire died a long time ago.
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Oct 14, 2019 13:36
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Wouldn't Turkey's Leopard IIs be better used here? Not sure how well the M60s (these aren't the Israeli-upgraded ones that Turkey bought right?) are going to stack up against T-72s (they are operated by the SAA though, so they have that going against them). Then again I don't think there is much chance of an all-out clash between the Turks and their proxies and the SAA, outside of isolated airstrikes and bombardments. Though I am prepared to possibly eat those words. Anyway if we see tanks destroyed I don't think it will be part of a big armor clash in any case. Randarkman fucked around with this message at 13:51 on Oct 14, 2019 |
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Oct 14, 2019 13:38
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Can somebody explain why there seems to be no fighting at all at Kobani ? Since it is directly at the border, I would have assumed Turkey to do something there. Or would that have been just to bad even for them symbolically ?
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Oct 14, 2019 13:47
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Tank vs Tank battles are not going to happen in 2019 while the airspace above is still open. Even if it did come to all out warfare between Turkey and Syria you would expect to see Turkey quickly establish air superiority, bomb the Syrian armour and then move in with their own tanks when it was safe to do so.
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Oct 14, 2019 13:48
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So all of that leftist and anarchist flag waving From the YPG was just a show, in the end, ethnic interests rule only. And in the end all principles fall by the wayside. What a disaster for everyone.
Al-Saqr fucked around with this message at 13:55 on Oct 14, 2019 |
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Oct 14, 2019 13:51
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Flayer posted:Tank vs Tank battles are not going to happen in 2019 while the airspace above is still open. Even if it did come to all out warfare between Turkey and Syria you would expect to see Turkey quickly establish air superiority, bomb the Syrian armour and then move in with their own tanks when it was safe to do so. Yeah, that's kind of what I'm thinking as well. Along with clashes between Turkey and the SAA being unlikely outside of isolated incidents. That twitter guy seemed excited about it though. Al-Saqr posted:So all of that leftist and anarchist flag waving From the YPG was just a show, in the end, ethnic interests rule only. What are you referring to?
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Oct 14, 2019 13:53
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Al-Saqr posted:So all of that leftist and anarchist flag waving From the YPG was just a show, in the end, ethnic interests rule only.
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Oct 14, 2019 13:54
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Flayer posted:Tank vs Tank battles are not going to happen in 2019 while the airspace above is still open. Even if it did come to all out warfare between Turkey and Syria you would expect to see Turkey quickly establish air superiority, bomb the Syrian armour and then move in with their own tanks when it was safe to do so. Russia has already said they intend to close the airspace
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Oct 14, 2019 13:57
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Flayer posted:Like every conflict, military power is the decisive factor. Rojava will cease to exist if the Kurds don't get themselves some new allies. I hate to break it to you, but rojava is well and truly dead even with this deal. Obviously I understand that the Kurds don’t want to be under Turkish control, but Assadist nazism will also ensure the Kurds don’t get any dignity or rights either but unlike the Arabs living under assad isn’t a death scenario for them which is why they’re able to swallow living under assad in a way that the Arab syrians can’t. Which is why this is a total disaster, neither the Arabs nor the Kurds got anything. The only people who won anything are the foreign powers who now rule over a dead carcass of a country. Al-Saqr fucked around with this message at 14:00 on Oct 14, 2019 |
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Oct 14, 2019 13:57
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Flayer posted:Like every conflict, military power is the decisive factor. Rojava will cease to exist if the Kurds don't get themselves some new allies. Rojava will cease to exist with that agreement in most instances as well. Much of it is tied to guarantees of Kurdish autonomy and rights being included in an eventual future constitution and new government, we'll see how long the Syrian regime takes to come out of martial law this time and return to constitutional rule. The essential point to me is the first one. The YPG/YPJ and SDF forces are to disband and the soldiers are to be placed under Russian and Syrian command. That's the end. That was essentially their leverage and their bargaining chip to make the government stick to their word.
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Oct 14, 2019 13:57
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Al-Saqr posted:I hate to break it to you, but rojava is well and truly dead even with this deal. Obviously I understand that the Kurds don’t want to be under Turkish control, but Assadist nazism will also ensure the Kurds don’t get any dignity or rights either. Which is why this is a total disaster, neither the Arabs nor the Kurds got anything. I dunno how you've missed out on this detail but the Turkish strategy has pretty openly been to ethnically cleanse the areas they get of Kurds. This is old hat for them. The Kurds don't live under Turkish control, they die under it or flee en mass from their homes in anticipation of the former. And Turkey knows this. This has been happening in Afrin, and the desired aftermath has been the status quo on Cyprus for like 45 years.
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Oct 14, 2019 14:02
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The US managed to lose a war that never even started
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Oct 14, 2019 14:04
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Al-Saqr posted:So all of that leftist and anarchist flag waving From the YPG was just a show, in the end, ethnic interests rule only. And in the end all principles fall by the wayside. What a disaster for everyone. Always be doing materialism: you cannot fight for your ideals if everyone is ethnically cleansed off the land.
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Oct 14, 2019 14:13
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glad SDF went with the route of prioritizing the life of its people with this deal rather than some ideological purity bullshit that would result in meaningless deaths
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Oct 14, 2019 14:14
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Randarkman posted:You know... At least Nixon kind of took his time, mostly in an attempt to make himself and America look good (if you squinted and deluded yourself), when he betrayed the South Vietnamese. Trump is making that very difficult for even the most deluded people I believe. Not to mention that USA resettled over 1,2 million refugees from Indochina. Trump meanwhile is campaigning on xenophoby and demonization of refugees. But that's what you get for not helping Americans in Normandy!
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Oct 14, 2019 14:16
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I don’t think you guys are giving Trump enough credit for ending the Syrian Civil War here
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Oct 14, 2019 14:18
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Al-Saqr posted:So all of that leftist and anarchist flag waving From the YPG was just a show, in the end, ethnic interests rule only. And in the end all principles fall by the wayside. What a disaster for everyone. You see this here? This is a bad post by you that's handwaving away the intent of Turkey to commit genocide.
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Oct 14, 2019 14:24
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Taerkar posted:You see this here? This is a bad post by you that's handwaving away the intent of Turkey to commit genocide. I didn’t handwave it I know what the Kurds situation is. I just find it really funny how western leftists are celebrating the return of nazism to Syria after they spent years telling people like me that syrian people can go gently caress themselves and that Rojava is the second coming of lenin and such and now they’re really glad the Kurds are throwing themselves at the hand of the Nazis but wouldn’t extend that same charity to half of Syria’s population when they were literally being thrown into death camps and had no air cover and had no one to turn to but underhanded foreign backers after the regime murdered all other options. Even though in the end everyone lost.
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Oct 14, 2019 14:30
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FWIW I think the Kurds clearly made the rational decision here to subordinate themselves to the regime, while I also think the TFSA made a rational decision to subordinate themselves to Turkey since they didn't have any better options either. Abandoning Aleppo to serve as Turkish mercenaries wasn't the most honorable route, but they did what they had to do to survive.
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Oct 14, 2019 14:34
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Any poster whom thinks that Kurds will even have the slightest semblance of authority or even tiniest bit of self determination under Baathist rule is a massive fool and utter moron. Usually this kind of posts comes from western tankies living in privileged countries whom did not experience the pleasure of living in countries ruled by military juntas/run by the military intelligence.
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Oct 14, 2019 14:35
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Sinteres posted:FWIW I think the Kurds clearly made the rational decision here to subordinate themselves to the regime, while I also think the TFSA made a rational decision to subordinate themselves to Turkey since they didn't have any better options either. Abandoning Aleppo to serve as Turkish mercenaries wasn't the most honorable route, but they did what they had to do to survive. This is my take as well.
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Oct 14, 2019 14:36
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People are somewhat happy because a literal genocide may be avoided. There is a real danger that Turkey will indulge in wholescale ethnic cleansing and the appearance of the SAA has lowered that. The SAA is an army that does in many ways base itself on actual Nazi ideology but in this instance it may actually prevent genocide.
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Oct 14, 2019 14:37
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Al-Saqr posted:I didn’t handwave it I know what the Kurds situation is. I just find it really funny how western leftists are celebrating the return of nazism to Syria after they spent years telling people like me that syrian people can go gently caress themselves and that Rojava is the second coming of lenin and such and now they’re really glad the Kurds are throwing themselves at the hand of the Nazis but wouldn’t extend that same charity to half of Syria’s population when they were literally being thrown into death camps and had no air cover and had no one to turn to but underhanded foreign backers after the regime murdered all other options. Even though in the end everyone lost. You should ask yourself why you seem to be enjoying Rojava's lovely situation because of things strangers online have posted.
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Oct 14, 2019 14:44
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At least the civil war is close to being over and we probably won't see much of the Kurds being used as shock troops in support of murderous regime's campaign of terror against its own population, like was essentially the case with Hezbollah and the Iraqi Shia militias.Chewbaccanator posted:You should ask yourself why you seem to be enjoying Rojava's lovely situation because of things strangers online have posted. It's perhaps a bit jarring to many, but I think al-Saqr's position is understandable when there definiely seems to be a trend of the West and people in the West calling for sanctions, interventions and no-fly zones to stop this Turkish aggression when they wouldn't extend this same sympathy to the Syrian rebels back in 2011 and 2012, even though the the Assad regime has been way more murderous and terrible than probably anything the Turks and their proxies are likely to do, however terrible that is. It all feeds into a conception that Westerners, even on the left, don't really think that Arabs deserve democracy or dignity. Randarkman fucked around with this message at 14:50 on Oct 14, 2019 |
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Oct 14, 2019 14:45
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I don't see Al-Saqr's reaction to this as enjoyment or even schadenfreude, just a wry acknowldgement that something he's been predicting for a long time has finally happened.
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Oct 14, 2019 14:55
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Chewbaccanator posted:You should ask yourself why you seem to be enjoying Rojava's lovely situation because of things strangers online have posted. I’m not enjoying it at all I’m sad.
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Oct 14, 2019 14:59
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Erdoğan: We are determined to take the "Peace Spring Operation" to the end. "Once flag rises, it will not come down" Erdogan: "Operation Peace Spring" has the similar importance as "1974 Cyprus Peace Operation"
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Oct 14, 2019 14:59
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Sinteres posted:Erdoğan: We are determined to take the "Peace Spring Operation" to the end. "Once flag rises, it will not come down" Yeah there’s reports coming out now that the Turks and their syrian forces have started their offensive to head to manbij as we speak.
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Oct 14, 2019 15:01
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I feel like all bets are off if the regime gets into a shooting war with Turkey Like does Russia get involved at that point? I know they are about to establish a no-fly zone.
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Oct 14, 2019 15:04
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My guess is that the regime will end up holding Manbij and Turkey will get Kobane and other border areas. It's hard to think of a legitimate reason why Turkey belongs in Manbij, since it's not super close to their border, and they lost the race to get there, so I'd expect Russia to back the regime there. We'll have to wait and see though.
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Oct 14, 2019 15:08
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Can Russia establish a no-fly zone in Syria against the Turks though? Though the Russians have airbases in Syria, they aren't exactly on homeground and the Turks essentially are. Also Russia's air force is not the USAF. I'm not sure the Russians will try this one if they aren't certain of success, it reads more like some sort of bargaining chip to me than anything else. e: In almost anyway you look at it, Russia establishing a no-fly zone against Turkey over Syria isn't even close to being the same as the US and NATO doing it over Libya. Randarkman fucked around with this message at 15:14 on Oct 14, 2019 |
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Oct 14, 2019 15:11
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Al-Saqr posted:I’m not enjoying it at all I’m sad. Alright, my bad. This whole thing has my cynicism meter out of whack.
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Oct 14, 2019 15:13
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Randarkman posted:Can Russia establish a no-fly zone in Syria against the Turks though? Though the Russians have airbases in Syria, they aren't exactly on homeground and the Turks essentially are. Also Russia's air force is not the USAF. I'm not sure the Russians will try this one if they aren't certain of success, it reads more like some sort of bargaining chip to me than anything else.
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Oct 14, 2019 15:15
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I don't think Russia's going to push Turkey out of anywhere they already are, or stop them from making any gains at all from here, but allowing Turkey to capture Manbij after the regime beat them to it would be a big change from the way the rest of the war has played out. If Russia puts planes in the sky over Manbij, do we really think Turkey's going to shoot them down? Edit: It'll be interesting to see if Tabqa's airport is or can be made flight operational for the regime in a hurry. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 15:23 on Oct 14, 2019 |
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Oct 14, 2019 15:18
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Flayer posted:I'm sure they could purely with ground-to-air units. Who knows if Russia is capable of deploying in a reasonable timeframe though. It certainly would be ironic if the Turkish airforce got a first-person demonstration of a late model s-300/s-400 system. Otherwise, it seems to be a race for time, and while Turkish-allied forces have made some ground, it may be Erdogan will have to settle for bits and pieces of his proposed border zone due to the obvious issue of Turkish ground units actually having to engage with SAA/Russian forces and the fact the TFSA very well may not be able to make substantial advances on its own against SAA/Russian forces. Also, there is plenty of fog of war at this point and we don't really know exactly where all the frontlines are. Also, I really don't see a choice for the Kurds here considering the US has abandoned and the Turkish government has attacked with the expressed intent of ethnic cleansing. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 15:26 on Oct 14, 2019 |
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Oct 14, 2019 15:20
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Al-Saqr posted:So all of that leftist and anarchist flag waving From the YPG was just a show, in the end, ethnic interests rule only. And in the end all principles fall by the wayside. What a disaster for everyone. I'm sad as hell to see Rojava cease to exist, but I don't really see how you can draw this conclusion. What else was Kurdish leadership supposed to do given the situation they were in? And I understand that your larger argument is that they should have cooperated with the left-wing Arab revolutionaries way at the start before those all ended up dead and I'm sympathetic to that argument. But I'm curious to know what you think Kurdish leadership should have done differently over the last weekend, or the last month, to not lose their leftist and anarchist cred.
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Oct 14, 2019 15:37
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Al-Saqr already said they did what they had to do to survive, he's just saying nobody should mistake the consolation prize of ending up under regime rule as any kind of victory.
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Oct 14, 2019 15:40
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