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are there legit sources for american support for HTS or whatever
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Oct 15, 2019 02:17
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Vasukhani posted:What makes you think the Russians and Turks are enemies in this? I didn't, it was more that the whole thing is so hosed I can almost half imagine that happening. And like I said, I've been up to my eyeballs in 16th-19th century Russian history lately, so it rubbed off.
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Oct 15, 2019 02:32
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Plastic_Gargoyle posted:I didn't, it was more that the whole thing is so hosed I can almost half imagine that happening. And like I said, I've been up to my eyeballs in 16th-19th century Russian history lately, so it rubbed off. With all that knowledge do you think that the turkreich is still bitter about the caucusus being annexed by russia?
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Oct 15, 2019 02:37
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Suddenly, Sanctions. 
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Oct 15, 2019 02:53
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This is tepid dogshit that they wanna pretend are crippling sanctions so Trump can tout them to the media and preempt a real sanctions package like the Graham bill from going through with veto-proof majority.
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Oct 15, 2019 03:02
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cargo cult posted:are there legit sources for american support for HTS or whatever No. The USA designates them a terrorist organization and makes no distinction between HTS and their precursors like al-Nusra Front. The US repeatedly assassinated important leaders in Syria's al qaeda branches and set opposition to them as a precondition of any aid. I don't most of the people here or in c-spam who say the US supports HTS or al qaeda would actually care about that. Generally them try and rhetorically conflate all of the Sunni Arab rebels with al qaeda and insinuating all rebel factions are the same. Often they will suggest that the American train and equip program started in 2014 was actually arming al Qaeda, ignoring all the effort that went into preventing exactly that from happening, and the speedy termination of the program once it was determined it was not actually possible to keep American trained rebels from deserting to al Nusra and taking their gear with them.
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Oct 15, 2019 04:06
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Squalid posted:and the speedy termination of the program once it was determined it was not actually possible to keep American trained rebels from deserting to al Nusra and taking their gear with them. That program was dead on arrival because they tried to get the people who joined to not fight assad which completely defeats any purpose.
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Oct 15, 2019 04:13
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well this'll stop the bombs
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Oct 15, 2019 04:21
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Regime is reoccupying bases previously occupied by the Kurds. Tabqa Airbase : Reoccupied SAR Flags being raised all over Kurdistan. Al-Ya'rubiyah: SAR Flag Raised Al-Hasakah: SAR Flag Raised Al-Raqqah  British SF Troops leaving Syria Journalists are leaving Northern Syria for fear of post-war regime vengeance. Additional regime troops waiting for Americans to leave Kobani before they come en masse. Literally crazy that the Americans are driving out as the regime is driving in. Tal Tamir is going to be a major item of intrigue this week as the SAA and TFSA are within 5 km of each other.
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Oct 15, 2019 04:32
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Plastic_Gargoyle posted:I didn't, it was more that the whole thing is so hosed I can almost half imagine that happening. And like I said, I've been up to my eyeballs in 16th-19th century Russian history lately, so it rubbed off. anna ivanovna is dramatically underappreciated
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Oct 15, 2019 04:50
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Woohoo!? Assad's forces are finally coming to the ¿Rescue? of the Kurds!?! All give thanks and praise for Assad?!?
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Oct 15, 2019 05:41
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Warbadger posted:Probably not if it hasn't already. Decent chance the Kurds (and US foreign policy, of course) are going to be the only losers in this partition. Uh, Assad realistically can’t ethnically cleanse the Kurds. To do so, 99% of the time, you need a replacement population to go in and take the now-unoccupied territory. Turkey has that spare mobile population, Assad does not. Plus Assad and the Kurds have been on poor but acceptable terms the past 8 years. They have to put up a picture of Assad in all their businesses and get to keep their homes and businesses, a much better deal than the Turks would "offer" them. Plus they’re a pretty small minority so Assad can easily buy them off like he did with Syrian Christians, and I imagine he will do so. Idlib will be awful but I’m guessing the Kurds will be allowed to do their own thing after turning over the oil fields and putting up the "correct" flag and portrait. Hell they might even be allowed to continue doing schooling in Kurdish, although I imagine Arabic will be gradually and progressively more mandatorily reintroduced. This whole poo poo was a debacle but I didn’t see it ever playing out better for the Kurds than this. They were never getting an independent country, especially after they failed in Iraq.
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Oct 15, 2019 06:09
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If assad wanted to genocidw the kurds he would have waited a while longer to provide aid to the kurdish cause.
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Oct 15, 2019 07:22
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Squalid posted:No. The USA designates them a terrorist organization and makes no distinction between HTS and their precursors like al-Nusra Front. The US repeatedly assassinated important leaders in Syria's al qaeda branches and set opposition to them as a precondition of any aid. did KSA/Turkish/Jordanian intelligence arm jihadis or serve as a prophylaxis for american intelligence to do the same?
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Oct 15, 2019 07:28
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Trusting Assad to just never want to ethnically cleanse anyone he feels threatened by, for any reason, is pretty foolish. But it is true, that Assad has a lot of better things to do right now (like making sure Turkey doesn't annex even more of his rightful clay) than to gently caress around with something like that right now. The Turks, on the other hand, apparently don't have better things to do so yea...I suppose this is not too surprising. I do wonder, tho, just what do those US troops, that are still standing in the way of govt. ones, think their exit plan is? Cuz at some point those airfields of theirs are gonna get taken over along with all the air support they can call in and at that point they will be royally hosed if they don't evac immediately instead of holding down the fort for the Turks lol.
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Oct 15, 2019 11:46
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:If assad wanted to genocidw the kurds he would have waited a while longer to provide aid to the kurdish cause. Assad's choice is "Do I want to genocide the Kurds now, and lose big chunks of land to the Turks, or just grab land now and maybe kill Kurds later?"
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Oct 15, 2019 11:58
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The Kurds have basically run out of people who they can even remotely trust, so it's not like long-term reliability of whatever allies they can find would be much of a concern at this point.
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Oct 15, 2019 12:06
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CrazyLoon posted:Trusting Assad to just never want to ethnically cleanse anyone he feels threatened by, for any reason, is pretty foolish. The SAA is not going to open fire on any American soldiers, surrounded or not. They’ll get the Turkish outpost treatment, and probably cut off from food and resupplies until the US decides helicopter supply runs are too expensive and evacs them. Most likely the troops will withdraw well before that.
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Oct 15, 2019 12:08
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Yeah when someone wants to kill you today, allying with someone who wants to kill your tomorrow or the day after is the smart move
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Oct 15, 2019 12:17
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CrazyLoon posted:Trusting Assad to just never want to ethnically cleanse anyone he feels threatened by, for any reason, is pretty foolish. No one is going to stop US Forces from exiting the country. Despite the geopolitical stand off, Turks aren’t going to risk loving with US troops, and the SAA is already letting them by. The only ones who could interdict would be ISIL, and they’re not really in a position to do much aside from random killings and primitive IEDs at this point.
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Oct 15, 2019 12:19
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Rust Martialis posted:Assad's choice is "Do I want to genocide the Kurds now, and lose big chunks of land to the Turks, or just grab land now and maybe kill Kurds later?" I don't see why Assad would do this. The Kurds haven't been totally friendly to Assad but they haven't overtly opposed him either. Genocide is actually a pretty demanding task, and is guaranteed to send the Kurds into open rebellion against him just when he's getting some measure of control over Syria.
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Oct 15, 2019 12:21
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Even with regime troops present, surely the Kurds still have a load of weapons lying around?
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Oct 15, 2019 12:25
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Count Roland posted:I don't see why Assad would do this. The Kurds haven't been totally friendly to Assad but they haven't overtly opposed him either. Genocide is actually a pretty demanding task, and is guaranteed to send the Kurds into open rebellion against him just when he's getting some measure of control over Syria. Because organized and armed minority groups with an interest in self governance and recent armed opposition to the government are rarely friends of the dictator leading the government. It's probably not going to happen right now, but at some point the Kurdish political movement or the Kurdish population will need to be disassembled or displaced. Assad seems willing and able to use either solution, if you haven't noticed. ^That is part of the problem with leaving the Kurds alone, actually. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 12:31 on Oct 15, 2019 |
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Oct 15, 2019 12:27
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Syria has been ripped apart and bled dry by war for eight years now, so it's not like Assad would have the strength to start and win another civil war immediately after this one has ended even if he had the inclination. He got in this whole mess by being too heavy-handed in his rule without having the power to back it up and he doesn't seem to be completely stupid, so would he really repeat his biggest mistake just like that?
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Oct 15, 2019 12:30
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Cerebral Bore posted:Syria has been ripped apart and bled dry by war for eight years now, so it's not like Assad would have the strength to start and win another civil war immediately after this one has ended even if he had the inclination. He got in this whole mess by being too heavy-handed in his rule without having the power to back it up and he doesn't seem to be completely stupid, so would he really repeat his biggest mistake just like that? Compared to the groups he is finishing off presently the Kurds are small fry. He has the power to do whatever he wants with them. He didn't win this war by moderation, he won it by killing or driving out the opposition and is still very capable of doing those things. He isn't going to just leave a rival faction completely intact because they formed an alliance of convenience.
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Oct 15, 2019 12:36
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Warbadger posted:Compared to the groups he is finishing off presently the Kurds are small fry. He has the power to do whatever he wants with them. He didn't win this war by moderation, he won it by killing or driving out the opposition and is still very capable of doing those things. Yeah, but it's also not entirely in his hands either. He's reliant on foreign backing to keep the war machine running and at least Russia has little interest in further instability, and would rather prefer a stable but weakened Syria that has to keep relying on them. Hence why they brokered the current alliance, most likely.
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Oct 15, 2019 12:43
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Cerebral Bore posted:Yeah, but it's also not entirely in his hands either. He's reliant on foreign backing to keep the war machine running and at least Russia has little interest in further instability, and would rather prefer a stable but weakened Syria that has to keep relying on them. Hence why they brokered the current alliance, most likely. that's a pretty generous term to use to describe what the Syrian Kurds seem to be accepting.
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Oct 15, 2019 12:52
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A tweet a while back said that the terms for the SAA moving in was that Kurdish units be placed under their and Russian command so they won't have any independent communication or coordination and will spend their time surrounded by hostile forces. They don't have to be disarmed to be rendered powerless.
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Oct 15, 2019 13:10
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Yup, that's the clincher. Kind of takes away the leverage the Kurds might have had to make the regime stick to its word in the future.
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Oct 15, 2019 13:27
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Randarkman posted:Yup, that's the clincher. Kind of takes away the leverage the Kurds might have had to make the regime stick to its word in the future. The lion of syria always sticks to his word! Assad or we burn the country!!/ Savy Saracen salad fucked around with this message at 16:18 on Oct 15, 2019 |
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Oct 15, 2019 13:36
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Savy Saracen salad posted:The lion of syria always sticks to his mind word! Assad
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Oct 15, 2019 13:47
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There is no way Turkey and Russia are at odds here, except if this is the most retarded timeline. Most likely, Putin just clowned on Trump who is essentially an amateur in comparison. I bet that's all a deal between Russia and Turkey. If we examine what Erdogan wants, its basically all internal politics. First, a win war, obviously. Second, need somewhere to put all those refugees because the times are changing in Turkey in that regard. Third, that buffer zone. But in particular, making sure that there is never, ever a Kurdish state. Remember that Turkey is actively fighting the PKK and vice versa. Turkey bombs random dudes in the South weekly, and the PKK shoots or explodes people at a similar rate, and this will never stop. Erdogan could never accept a Kurdish state at his border, he would have to go to war or resign immediately. This is sadly a majority opinion in Turkey. But that's mostly it. Neither genociding all Kurds nor expanding the borders are actual concrete political goals. It's all about those three above for Mr. Wannabe Sultan. Now what has occurred? There will never be a Kurdish state. Check. There's a buffer zone, check. And all refugees will be "returned" ""home"". Check. Oh and also, Erdogan "won" a "war" against the Kurds (should put more quotation marks here). And Putin? He ends the war in Syria by kicking out the US, implying the US was the reason for all this poo poo in the first place, which is what everyone thinks anyway. Literally everyone is happy except the Kurds, of course, and the US is completely and utterly humiliated. This leads me to Trump. Either he is in on it, or he is not. In any case, what a colossal betrayal this is... I mean what the hell. Dismantling YPG positions just weeks before this invasion makes me think that he is in on it. But on the other hand, this looks soooooooo bad for the US. I mean, the designated US ally gets absolutely hosed, and Putin and Erdogan basically throw "Israel and the CIA out of Syria" (yes this is how this is termed). And the best part, after the US leaves, we can all go back to good ol peace and fascism, showing once and for all who is the true evildoer in this world. Further, the sanctions make look Trump even worse. At least roll with it and pretend it was your plan from the beginning to end Kurdistan without a genocide. In short: Lol Trump
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Oct 15, 2019 14:02
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Cerebral Bore posted:Yeah, but it's also not entirely in his hands either. He's reliant on foreign backing to keep the war machine running and at least Russia has little interest in further instability, and would rather prefer a stable but weakened Syria that has to keep relying on them. Hence why they brokered the current alliance, most likely. But it is. Russia is Assad's friend, not the Kurds' friend. Russia has made it very clear they back him in restoring his control over Syria by force and have been willing to get their hands very dirty in the process. Keep in mind the largest and most aggressive probing of Kurdish territory was performed by Wagner, which is a Russian military proxy. It really just comes down to how far Assad thinks he needs to go to remove the Kurds as a political and military factor for the foreseeable future. He might just marginalize them - maybe even use them as a wedge in the sectarian divide if they play ball and cooperate completely. But he also might decide he's better off being rid of them (or at least those of consequence).
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Oct 15, 2019 14:15
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Warbadger posted:But it is. Russia is Assad's friend, not the Kurds' friend. Russia has made it very clear they back him in restoring his control over Syria by force and have been willing to get their hands very dirty in the process. Keep in mind the largest and most aggressive probing of Kurdish territory was performed by Wagner, which is a Russian military proxy. Russia isn't Assad's friend either, they just want a forward base area in Syria and see him as the best option, plus keeping him in power is a prestige project at this point to prove that they can still wage a proxy war against the west and come out on top. And from that perspective they're right. However, a strong Assad who has crushed all possible opposition is less valuable than an Assad who will still be more or less reliant on them for the foreseeable future, which is why they'll try to keep things stable but keep the central government weakened to the point where Assad won't dare to go against their interests. Randarkman posted:that's a pretty generous term to use to describe what the Syrian Kurds seem to be accepting. Well, the Kurds are an extremely junior partner for sure, but at least for as long as Turkey is invading I think that an alliance is the most accurate term to use.
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Oct 15, 2019 14:29
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Too bad the Rojava project didn’t succeed. The bad guys always win it seems.
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Oct 15, 2019 14:29
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caps on caps on caps posted:except if this is the most retarded timeline.
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Oct 15, 2019 14:35
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Russia apparently has MPs on the ground in the Manbij countryside, so it's not just regime forces in the way now.
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Oct 15, 2019 14:42
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Sinteres posted:Russia apparently has MPs on the ground in the Manbij countryside, so it's not just regime forces in the way now. Yeah, the Russians are having fun playing around in the US base at Manbij. https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1184107312690139136
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Oct 15, 2019 15:16
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caps on caps on caps posted:In short: Lol Trump Remember back when the chuds would froth about how badly Obama had let the US be humiliated when did things like follow diplomatic protocol in Japan or Saudi or basically not act like a roided up WWE wrestler when dealing with anyone? Even though Obama was casually droning the poo poo out of half the drat world? So now they elected someone WWE adjacent and just holy loving lol is the US getting played left, right and center. It'd be genuinely funny if the consequences fell on Trumps electorate rather than on the Kurds and the Yemenis and god knows who else Trump's total and utter failure at being a functional human being is hurting all over the globe.
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Oct 15, 2019 15:34
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mediadave posted:Yeah, the Russians are having fun playing around in the US base at Manbij. lol this is just sad
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Oct 15, 2019 16:36
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