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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Its more likely Trump will leave NATO than turkey getting kicked out. Unless Trump's master stroke was to quickly show the world how hosed Turkey was (which most already knew) there isn't a single win here for the US.
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Nov 1, 2019 01:18
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| # ? May 26, 2024 20:28 |
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Its more likely Trump will leave NATO than turkey getting kicked out. The Senate would need to be onboard for that. The US joined NATO via an actual treaty. Trump might be able to unilaterally pull the US out of the WTO.
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Nov 1, 2019 02:17
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Its more likely Trump will leave NATO than turkey getting kicked out. So true.
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Nov 1, 2019 02:26
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OhFunny posted:The Senate would need to be onboard for that. The US joined NATO via an actual treaty. Trump might be able to unilaterally pull the US out of the WTO. Declining to adhere to Article 5 is a dereliction of obligations outlined. So yes, while walking away from the treaty formally requires a sexy signature majority of old men. We are living in a world under this policy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unitary_executive_theory If you haven't heard of it, Read up sports fans. Its a gently caress'uv'a legal device that trumps anything you can think of to say "  B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B--B-BUT THE PRESIDENT CANT DO THAT"
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Nov 1, 2019 05:51
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https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1190207367671095301
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Nov 1, 2019 16:16
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does this mean trump will be the beneficiary of a reverse assad curse, keeping him in office after 2020
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Nov 1, 2019 16:27
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 Gotta love those event combos
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Nov 2, 2019 02:00
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Doctor Jeep posted:does this mean trump will be the beneficiary of a reverse assad curse, keeping him in office after 2020
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Nov 2, 2019 06:03
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Less Claypool posted:
Turkey is never getting kicked out NATO, for two reasons: a) All decisions in NATO require unanimous consent. b) The NATO charter doesn't even have a mechanism for kicking out a member. Should Turkey get kicked out NATO? Depends. Do we want Turkey to officially and fully align itself with Russia (and possibly China) moving forward? Probably not. IMO it would be disastrous for the West. (I'm Turkish)
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Nov 3, 2019 03:12
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Turkey gained russias respect when they shot down a rusaian jet nqa.
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Nov 3, 2019 05:43
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enraged_camel posted:Turkey is never getting kicked out NATO, for two reasons: turkey should commit genocide with our consent, not a rival power's
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Nov 3, 2019 06:13
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SDF Being moved out of Manbij in the coming days. Preparations for Tukish transitional occupation to take ownership shortly after.
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Nov 3, 2019 07:34
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enraged_camel posted:Turkey is never getting kicked out NATO, for two reasons: I didn’t realize they didn’t have some blueprint for a member to get kicked out. I also didn’t realize that a NATO member could buy military arms from Russia, I thought that would be set in stone from the get go. Do you live in Turkey currently? Do most Turks despise Erdogan policies or is it split?
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Nov 3, 2019 12:59
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:SDF Being moved out of Manbij in the coming days. Preparations for Tukish transitional occupation to take ownership shortly after. That sounds false.
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Nov 3, 2019 13:05
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Less Claypool posted:I didn’t realize they didn’t have some blueprint for a member to get kicked out. I also didn’t realize that a NATO member could buy military arms from Russia, I thought that would be set in stone from the get go. NATO has over the years repeatedly and explicitly said that they are not an anti-Russian alliance and even have included Russia in the Parnership for Peace which is why their eastward spread should be no reason for Kremlin to get angsty about. It wouldn't be very consistent then if NATO declared that buying arms from Russia is forbidden. In this sense Russia is no different to Sweden or Switzerland. Individual member states may have differing opinions on whether it's a good idea and you'd still need to consider compatibility of systems with NATO standards, but NATO as a treaty organization doesn't have authority to forbid members from doing arms trade with whoever they want.
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Nov 3, 2019 14:02
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Nenonen posted:NATO has over the years repeatedly and explicitly said that they are not an anti-Russian alliance It is though. To the extent that it still has a meaningful mission at all. The American president not giving a poo poo about the alliance undermines it more than whatever Turkey does, especially since he's the one refusing to slap sanctions on Turkey for buying poo poo from Russia.
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Nov 3, 2019 14:03
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Less Claypool posted:Do you live in Turkey currently? Do most Turks despise Erdogan policies or is it split? I don't know how it is in Turkey right now, but the European diaspora is very split, and in large part on a by country of residence basis.
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Nov 3, 2019 14:14
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Doctor Jeep posted:it's actually very easy to disregard what a piece of poo poo like crenshaw says, you just do it I know it's two pages back, but these kinds of comments are very prevalent in SA right now and I find them disturbing. When people stop talking to each other or dismissing the thoughts of others casually you end up with bad results, like the 2016 election. Even if this thread is not the exact correct place to discuss this kind of opinion we need to have the discussion somewhere instead of being dismissive and caustic. If you don't agree with someone's opinion tell me why. Don't label them as stupid. I want to know why you disagree with their opinion, your argument may offer new information or viewpoints to me or others. I like hearing you explain your views, even if I don't agree with them.
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Nov 3, 2019 15:49
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Orange Devil posted:I don't know how it is in Turkey right now, but the European diaspora is very split, and in large part on a by country of residence basis. Handy dandy diaspora "Erdogan popularity" guide. Voting results on the 2017 referendum at giving him more power.  Pattern wise... such as there is one, it seems areas that have had longer lasting Turkish immigrant communities might be leaning more pro-Erdogan (Germany and company), and ones where the communities are fresher seem to hate his guts. But that's very conjectural on my part. If that has any truth, it might be the old "diaspora more easily buys into jingoistic populist crap about old country versus people who left more recently and know poo poo is hosed". Turkish Cypriots meanwhile definitely hate the gently caress out of him.
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Nov 3, 2019 15:57
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celewign posted:I know it's two pages back, but these kinds of comments are very prevalent in SA right now and I find them disturbing. When people stop talking to each other or dismissing the thoughts of others casually you end up with bad results, like the 2016 election. Even if this thread is not the exact correct place to discuss this kind of opinion we need to have the discussion somewhere instead of being dismissive and caustic. If only people had just talked to Hitler more, we could have prevented the bad results.
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Nov 3, 2019 16:59
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Grape posted:Handy dandy diaspora "Erdogan popularity" guide. Voting results on the 2017 referendum at giving him more power. That’s a cool map and I’m amazed they make that data public and geo-localizable. Also the Turkish Cypriots seem to be pretty 50/50 on it, but I guess they don’t break it down between Turkish Cypriots and Turkish Settlers living in Cyprus. I’m surprised none of LatAm is on that map. Why is there a direct flight between Istanbul and Colombia/Panama if there’s no expat/immigrant community there? Thailand has more Turks than Colombia?
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Nov 3, 2019 17:04
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celewign posted:I know it's two pages back, but these kinds of comments are very prevalent in SA right now and I find them disturbing. When people stop talking to each other or dismissing the thoughts of others casually you end up with bad results, like the 2016 election. Even if this thread is not the exact correct place to discuss this kind of opinion we need to have the discussion somewhere instead of being dismissive and caustic. Let's illustrate the issue. Say someone makes an ill informed drive by shitpost that is comprised of talking points and lazy personal prejudice. The kind of thing that shows they don't pay close attention, and are not interested in doing so. A post like so: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3590854&pagenumber=495&perpage=40#post488390713 Instead of wasting time getting bogged down by crap like this, people are totally in their rights to tell it off and continue on with actual discourse. Like as follows. https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3590854&userid=0&perpage=40&pagenumber=496#post488391147 Grape fucked around with this message at 17:24 on Nov 3, 2019 |
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Nov 3, 2019 17:19
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Orange Devil posted:If only people had just talked to Hitler more, we could have prevented the bad results. A lot of problems likely could have been avoided if people with decision making authority had been more familiar with Hitler's thinking and had realized earlier that his stated intentions were most than just rhetoric.
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Nov 3, 2019 17:26
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Saladman posted:That’s a cool map and I’m amazed they make that data public and geo-localizable. Also the Turkish Cypriots seem to be pretty 50/50 on it, but I guess they don’t break it down between Turkish Cypriots and Turkish Settlers living in Cyprus. That color isn't Turkish Cypriots though, because they aren't voting expats of Turkey, they vote in their own elections for their own stuff in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. The dot there is presumably Turkish citizens or immigrants who maintain voting rights back home but reside in TRNC. The guy the Turkish Cypriots elected is in the midst of this spat, just to illustrate the anti-Erdoganism there. https://ahvalnews.com/turkey-cyprus/turkeys-incursion-syria-leads-spat-between-turkey-and-turkish-cyprus The next presidential election there is next year, I've read articles saying talking tough on Erdogan's actions like this is political calculus as much as anything. As in: Standing up to Erdogan loudly like this is something he's doing partly because it is popular there lol. Grape fucked around with this message at 17:32 on Nov 3, 2019 |
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Nov 3, 2019 17:28
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Grape posted:Handy dandy diaspora "Erdogan popularity" guide. Voting results on the 2017 referendum at giving him more power. Nah, the pattern is this: Erdogan's base is working class folks (most of whom tend to be religious). Germany, for instance, admitted a lot of Turkish immigrants in the 60s to cover their blue collar labor shortage (caused by the construction of Berlin Wall). Then in the mid-70s, those immigrants were given the right to bring their families from Turkey. The Turks in Germany today are the decendants of those original immigrants, and as you can imagine, they still have a blue collar cultural identity (especially since they're rather insular and haven't integrated well with Germans). Turks who emigrate to most other countries however tend to do so for education and white collar work, and tend to be more liberal, so their political views range from "doesn't support Erdogan" to "hate Erdogan's guts".
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Nov 3, 2019 17:46
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Sinteres posted:That sounds false. My post is a bit exaggerated. But the gist is the sdf are being removed from their positions at Manbij. I do appreciate your quest for truth as it is helpful in not rabbit holing bullshit.
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Nov 3, 2019 18:01
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celewign posted:I know it's two pages back, but these kinds of comments are very prevalent in SA right now and I find them disturbing. When people stop talking to each other or dismissing the thoughts of others casually you end up with bad results, like the 2016 election. Even if this thread is not the exact correct place to discuss this kind of opinion we need to have the discussion somewhere instead of being dismissive and caustic. eh. . . this is something that's pretty prevalent in every context. Another example of the same tendency is that idea attributed to Dan Crenshaw that terrorism represents an abstract evil force, that they hate us for our freedom, we have to fight them over there so we don't have to fight the here etc. Radical Islamists are not at all coy about their motives or intentions, so why do so many people trying to explain them instead make up weird bullshit? The answer is it's hard to study the history and you have to put in work, you need to use empathy to understand different frames of reference, you have to be willing to put yourself in someone else's circumstance. . . Much easier to just dismiss them as some incomprehensible Joker-esque agent of chaos. Sometimes you really do just need to shut down certain positions. When someone like Frond starts dehumanizing people or others celebrate war crimes and collective punishment, you have to just shut it down. There are some voices you just can't accept in the conversation.
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Nov 3, 2019 20:16
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Squalid posted:eh. . . this is something that's pretty prevalent in every context. Another example of the same tendency is that idea attributed to Dan Crenshaw that terrorism represents an abstract evil force, that they hate us for our freedom, we have to fight them over there so we don't have to fight the here etc. Radical Islamists are not at all coy about their motives or intentions, so why do so many people trying to explain them instead make up weird bullshit? The answer is it's hard to study the history and you have to put in work, you need to use empathy to understand different frames of reference, you have to be willing to put yourself in someone else's circumstance. . . Much easier to just dismiss them as some incomprehensible Joker-esque agent of chaos. This is a good post, thanks. For someone like me to understand your opinion I'd have to research this guy and watch/read his videos/articles, a luxury I don't have.
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Nov 3, 2019 21:13
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Sinteres posted:It is though. To the extent that it still has a meaningful mission at all. NATO's mission is to be a StanHome/Tupperware club for Lockheed-Martin and Raytheon.
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Nov 3, 2019 21:14
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Cat Mattress posted:NATO's mission is to be a StanHome/Tupperware club for Lockheed-Martin and Raytheon. Letting Turkey get away with buying Russian weapons sends a pretty awful signal to the rest of the alliance then.
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Nov 4, 2019 00:19
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Videos of protesters getting shot in Karbala going around again. Looks like they set fire to the Iranian consulate this time.
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Nov 4, 2019 00:22
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Grape posted:Let's illustrate the issue. Best way to deal with disingenuous bullshit or people who are literally too far up their own rear end to ever see eye to eye with is to just dismiss and mock them the gently caress out of the room.
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Nov 4, 2019 01:09
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Sinteres posted:Letting Turkey get away with buying Russian weapons sends a pretty awful signal to the rest of the alliance then. This is why DC is honestly pissed, but doesn’t want to essentially ban a long standing customer.
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Nov 4, 2019 02:07
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Sinteres posted:Letting Turkey get away with buying Russian weapons sends a pretty awful signal to the rest of the alliance then. They were hit by sanctions as a consequences; though Trump lifted most of those.
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Nov 4, 2019 02:15
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https://twitter.com/JackDetsch_ALM/status/1191153747193405441 Turkey seems to be playing chicken with American forces again. I can't help feeling bad for them for getting caught in the middle of all Trump's waffling in the middle of a war zone. Obviously it's better to be fired near than fired on, so they're still better off than the actual combatants, but getting sent out of the country and then back in without any real road map for what tomorrow brings has to be super demoralizing. Cat Mattress posted:They were hit by sanctions as a consequences; though Trump lifted most of those. No they weren't, they were hit with sanctions for detaining an American pastor, and very briefly for invading Rojava. Trump's obligated by law to sanction them for buying the S-400, but he hasn't done it. Ardennes posted:This is why DC is honestly pissed, but doesn’t want to essentially ban a long standing customer. Most of DC seems ready to throw them overboard at this point, but I do wonder how many would back down at the last second if push came to shove. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 03:16 on Nov 4, 2019 |
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Nov 4, 2019 03:04
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Sinteres posted:Letting Turkey get away with buying Russian weapons sends a pretty awful signal to the rest of the alliance then. Ardennes posted:This is why DC is honestly pissed, but doesn’t want to essentially ban a long standing customer. The whole saga is very interesting. Here's a good summary: https://www.defenseworld.net/feature/20/Battle_of_the_Air_Defense_Systems__S_400_Vs_Patriot_and_THAAD Basically, buying Patriot missiles has been a very expensive endeavor for Turkey over the years. They want to be able to manufacture them domestically and have their own trained crews to be able to operate them, but the USA has refused to include technology and knowledge transfer in the sales packages. So Erdogan got pissed and issued an RFP, and after a few rounds, Russia ended up winning. The other thing that makes S400 way more attractive is this part: quote:The US-built THAAD is an effective missile defense system whose capabilities of downing ballistic missiles in terms of intercept altitudes and ranges surpass its the rivals. However it is strictly an anti-missile system, which can hit targets only at very high altitudes (minimum 40-50 km) which makes it useless against fighter jets or long range strategic aircraft. It is not an air defense missile like S-400 or Patriot.
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Nov 4, 2019 03:25
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Best way to deal with disingenuous bullshit or people who are literally too far up their own rear end to ever see eye to eye with is to just dismiss and mock them the gently caress out of the room. Wow you're so mature and cool
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Nov 4, 2019 04:06
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Sinteres posted:https://twitter.com/JackDetsch_ALM/status/1191153747193405441 It’s a heck of a time to be here, I’ll say that. I can’t divulge many details from the US side for obvious reasons, but having been back and forth between Erbil and Kirkuk the past few weeks, and spoken to a smattering of guys from our sister unit that just pulled out of and went back into Syria, SOF personnel and some of the Kurds, it’s just a weird time all around. Support for the President is definitely at an all time low though lol
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Nov 4, 2019 04:38
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celewign posted:Wow you're so mature and cool He's not wrong and you do a really good job of 'just asking questions'.
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Nov 4, 2019 06:00
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| # ? May 26, 2024 20:28 |
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Talking about how hard empathy is, sometimes when I talk to or read things written by American military people and they start on about honor and duty etc, I feel like I'm looking at some kind of amazon tribes person who just stepped out of the jungle and is wearing a penis sheath with a bone in through their nose shaking a rattle and saying "ooga booga." Like its completely foreign to me, they might as well be trying to explain Buddhist scripture. It's something I know they take seriously but I think I'll always have a hard time getting in their head. It's the same problem I have with sincerely religious people. On an intellectual level I know they many of them must actually believe in faith and god and all that. . . but it's so divorced from my own experience I tend to assume its just a mask for something I can grasp like greed or humanism or w/e. Again intellectually I know this is wrong and many people actually do believe in religions. . . it's just very hard for me to relate. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Nov 4, 2019 06:44
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