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Bundy posted:https://twitter.com/IanLaveryMP/status/1195638444770365445 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8z5iJ7DXoYM e: the 220 bus runs from Willesden Junction to Mapleton Crescent ShaneMacGowansTeeth fucked around with this message at 23:07 on Nov 17, 2019 |
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Nov 17, 2019 23:03
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Scikar posted:I have to admit I was starting to get a bit worried about the gap in the polls still persisting at this point. But then I saw that breakdown for one of them that had the raw poll result and their weightings, where Labour were ahead unweighted, but behind on the weighted score because they were predicting a record low turnout for 18-24 age bracket and a 95% turnout for 65+ in the middle of winter. It's right to be wary of dismissing polls just because the result is bad, but when their working literally doesn't add up it's right to challenge them. Braggart posted:Remember that we have had double the youth registrations to vote that we had for the last election, and also that everyone under about 50 is more likely to be voting Labour than Conservative. Bardeh posted:someone reweighted that Kantar poll with 2017 numbers: jabby posted:The issue is, just like with YouGov last time, the pollsters look at their raw data and then play with the weighting/turnout sliders seemingly based on achieving a result that looks right to them. Wiggly Wayne DDS posted:a look at their detailed votes and a non-statistician's attempt at unskewing it according to their data (without touching their strange weighting assumptions i.e. admitted lab voter in 2017 isn't likely to vote lab now)  ^ this is kantar's raw data, i take the proportion of their weighted results per age group, compare it to the total. that's where the splits in the third section comes from - just a simple proportion of the weighted results. using that i flip the results back to their unweighted entries by taking the proportion of weight/unweighted responses, trivial  ^but that's only removing their weightings, the turnout figures were the issue. so i went with the figures originally provided and did the above but for the turnout %. you can see where the 2017 turnout goes - or rather this is that random poster's turnout data. there isn't a proper authority for age groups in general elections and i couldn't find that poster's source, so...  ^i grabbed the IPSOS' estimations for age bands so there was an actual source to point to, but i didn't think that was good enough and...  ^i found out who parliament reference in their official documents for age bands in the 2017 general election. see: https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-8060 now that's the kantar part, i also put together all of the voter registrations so far and explained it earlier: Wiggly Wayne DDS posted:after some chat and suggestions i thread together a comparison of voter registration against age bands compared to 2017. there's some obvious caveats though  and for the total registration for 2017 vs where we are now...  yeah polls are narrative devices, but removing their weights tells you about their polling demographic and the surrounding questions in the full documents are telling
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Nov 17, 2019 23:04
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Thanks for this.
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Nov 17, 2019 23:06
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Guavanaut posted:Yeah the Queen can pick who she likes, but it's Parliament that's sovereign, so all picking PM doggo would do is guarantee a constitutional issue comes to a head where each new Parliament has a formal vote on the new PM. If the Queen picks an English bulldog then Parliament will be too afraid of the tabloid rage to vote against it. Doubly so if it's smoking a cigar. Long live Prime Minister FashDog! His grrrr-ruff nature exemplifies the true British spirit! Naturally he leans conservative 
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Nov 17, 2019 23:07
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anytime someone says "i have a very strange medical condition" there's an 80% chance that person is a nonce
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Nov 17, 2019 23:10
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gh0stpinballa posted:anytime someone says "i have a very strange medical condition" there's an 80% chance that person is a nonce the words of a doctor friend is that the 'i don't sweat' condition is an actual thing, but it's the sort of illness that stops them leaving the house
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Nov 17, 2019 23:13
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gh0stpinballa posted:anytime someone says "i have a very strange medical condition" there's an 80% chance that person is a nonce Nah. There are a lot of uncommon/rare medical conditions out there, and quite a few people who have them. This seems like an ableist comment you're making, which I'm sure you don't want to be doing 
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Nov 17, 2019 23:17
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https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1196189907301158915 https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1196191567373066241 Looks like poo poo is getting pretty serious in Hong Kong.
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Nov 17, 2019 23:22
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Hungry posted:Pheasants used to get into my garden constantly when I lived in the woods, and the cats would try to stalk them before realising those birds are a bit too big for them to take. A neighbour's cat dragged in a pheasant once; killed but didn't try to eat it. Neighbours were vegetarian so they gave it to us. Only time I've enjoyed eating pheasant because I didn't have to keep an eye out for bits of shot.
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Nov 17, 2019 23:24
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Angrymog posted:A neighbour's cat dragged in a pheasant once; killed but didn't try to eat it. Neighbours were vegetarian so they gave it to us. Only time I've enjoyed eating pheasant because I didn't have to keep an eye out for bits of shot. yes but you're still meant to prep and cook it
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Nov 17, 2019 23:25
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Guavanaut posted:Yeah the Queen can pick who she likes, but it's Parliament that's sovereign, so all picking PM doggo would do is guarantee a constitutional issue comes to a head where each new Parliament has a formal vote on the new PM. I am perfectly prepared to believe the tories and libs would vote for a literal lap dog of the Queen as PM.
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Nov 17, 2019 23:29
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Ratjaculation posted:yes but you're still meant to prep and cook it What do you think we did with it? Or are you just being weird?
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Nov 17, 2019 23:35
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Guavanaut posted:Yeah the Queen can pick who she likes, but it's Parliament that's sovereign, so all picking PM doggo would do is guarantee a constitutional issue comes to a head where each new Parliament has a formal vote on the new PM. So if the Queen picks a corgi and enough of Parliament say "gently caress it, let's roll with this poo poo (because we can distract from a lot of bad things we do by having a corgi bark into a podium on the news)" We'll have a Good Boy PM?
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Nov 17, 2019 23:47
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Wiggly Wayne DDS posted:yeah polls are narrative devices, but removing their weights tells you about their polling demographic and the surrounding questions in the full documents are telling Thanks, this is excellent! I'm still holding out for a political reporter somewhere to write up what they got wrong and why in 2017, as a precursor to their analysis for 2019. Without the first part, the second is worthless. But in the media bubble it's like 2017 never happened.
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Nov 17, 2019 23:51
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Ratjaculation posted:the words of a doctor friend is that the 'i don't sweat' condition is an actual thing, but it's the sort of illness that stops them leaving the house If you sweat excessively you can have a symphatectomy which involves snipping parts of the nerve trunks lining the sides of your spine. Even when performed intentionally the effects are pretty imprecise and I wonder what sort of injury he sustained that somehow damaged both nerves flanking his spine but still left him with the ability to walk. Also disconnecting your symphatetic nervous system (fight or flight response) also leads to various other interesting effects like loss of ejaculation, arousal etc etc ad nauseum.
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Nov 17, 2019 23:52
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Loss of ejaculation, arousal ad nauseum certainly described my understanding of prince andrew.
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Nov 17, 2019 23:55
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RockyB posted:I am perfectly prepared to believe the tories and libs would vote for a literal lap dog of the Queen as PM. Remember when a bunch of fubpees seriously expected the queen to stop brexit?
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Nov 17, 2019 23:58
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get the stilts out jezza https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1196195107361501186
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Nov 18, 2019 00:00
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njsykora posted:Remember when a bunch of fubpees seriously expected the queen to stop brexit? SHE WORE A BLUE HAT IT WAS A PERFECTLY REASONABLE CONCLUSION TO COME TO, OK
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Nov 18, 2019 00:01
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Scikar posted:Thanks, this is excellent! I'm still holding out for a political reporter somewhere to write up what they got wrong and why in 2017, as a precursor to their analysis for 2019. Without the first part, the second is worthless. But in the media bubble it's like 2017 never happened. not that their isn't some weight to that, but leaning fully into a single policy general election is a recipe for embarrassment. then there's ignoring polls relative to the 2017 campaign, but that doesn't fit the narrative to discourage voters winter is also dismissed because 1970s and coal strikes therefore winter can't be impactful. please ignore the strong incentives to vote at that moment and the change in society since there's just over a week until voter registration closes - make it count and aim for postal votes to maximise turnout. this is the week it all matters (and the final day surge ofc) labour manifesto is thursday and inc. broadband, water, mail and rail so far. push to register and change minds later
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Nov 18, 2019 00:04
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Z the IVth posted:If you sweat excessively you can have a symphatectomy which involves snipping parts of the nerve trunks lining the sides of your spine. Even when performed intentionally the effects are pretty imprecise and I wonder what sort of injury he sustained that somehow damaged both nerves flanking his spine but still left him with the ability to walk. From my understanding he's not saying he was actually injured, just that he was shot at, and the resulting 'overdose of adrenaline' (his own adrenaline) rendered him unable to sweat. Essentially, he got scared once and this caused him to become unable to sweat for a period of over 19 years, but which has since gone away. It's absolute, 100%, gold-plated bollocks.
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Nov 18, 2019 00:05
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https://twitter.com/inthesedeserts/status/1196049423303892992?s=19
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Nov 18, 2019 00:06
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jabby posted:From my understanding he's not saying he was actually injured, just that he was shot at, and the resulting 'overdose of adrenaline' (his own adrenaline) rendered him unable to sweat. The funniest part is he thought it was a completely amazing, bulletproof defense. One, he couldn't sweat at all, so he couldn't possibly have been that sweaty man that did all the noncing, and Two, the reason he couldn't sweat because he's a War Hero 
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Nov 18, 2019 00:07
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Manic_Misanthrope posted:So if the Queen picks a corgi and enough of Parliament say "gently caress it, let's roll with this poo poo (because we can distract from a lot of bad things we do by having a corgi bark into a podium on the news)" We'll have a Good Boy PM? jabby posted:From my understanding he's not saying he was actually injured, just that he was shot at, and the resulting 'overdose of adrenaline' (his own adrenaline) rendered him unable to sweat.
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Nov 18, 2019 00:13
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Wiggly Wayne DDS posted:on the 15th i did an analysis of the kantar numbers in that poll. posters were reading the documents, but i'll include terrible images this time This is a great post, cheers! I get a bit frustrated by the thread's out-of-hand dismissal of all polling that doesn't give us the result we want, so it's nice to get some actual analysis.
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Nov 18, 2019 00:13
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RockyB posted:I am perfectly prepared to believe the tories and libs would vote for a literal lap dog of the Queen as PM. It's going to be a hell of a job telling the difference between a vote for Corbyn and a vote for Corgi. We might as well just assume that any ambiguous ballots were cast for Corgi.
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Nov 18, 2019 00:14
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Don't just dismiss polling that doesn't give you the result you want, dismiss all polling. Because what are you going to do? Not bother turning out if it looks likely to go your way or if it's too unlikely? It only works if everyone acts as if their actions matter, frankly I think the world would be much improved if we just banned polling.
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Nov 18, 2019 00:16
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Ah cool, there's the politicization of public antisemitic abuse that I wanted.
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Nov 18, 2019 00:18
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Bear in mind also that the way the polling companies make there money is by doing two polls: One for the public, and one much more accurate one which they sell to political parties, speculators etc. for large sums of money.
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Nov 18, 2019 00:18
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1) Starting to getting a bit concerned that I haven't seen anything through the door from Labour so far. Had about five different flyers from the Libs, with the usual EU election bar chart. But nothing from Labour. It's not a close seat so I guess it makes sense them not concentrating the fight here, and maybe they're concentrating their efforts on the Wantage side which is bigger. Plus, they have a great opportunity in the confusion of Vaisey not standing. But if they fail to fight at all then they're shooting themselves in the dick because then they're just creating more entrenched safe seats. 2) On the subject of polling and YouGov in particular, I bring you this clip from the episode of Dave Gorman I just watched in which he gives a fantastic demonstration of exactly how bollocks it is at about 10:20 in: Full show: http://uktvplay.uktv.co.uk/shows/dave-gormans-modern-life-is-goodish/watch-online/5816030722001 Wish I could find that midfle section on YouTube or something, because it demonstrates perfectly why YouGov is politically bent, as well as utterly useless. Bobby Deluxe fucked around with this message at 00:22 on Nov 18, 2019 |
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Nov 18, 2019 00:19
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Niric posted:This is a great post, cheers! There isn't a dismissal of polling that doesn't give us the result we want. When a poll comes up that looks good for us, the general response is "oh, that's nice to see, but probably still unreliable". It can be a morale booster, but definitely don't take it as gospel, even if you like the sound of it
Braggart fucked around with this message at 00:32 on Nov 18, 2019 |
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Nov 18, 2019 00:28
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XMNN posted:not sure if I'm being too cynical but I also thought it might be a bit of an own goal, making sure a bunch of octogenarians vote The strong likelihood is that it would be, although of course you should consider the likely class of inhabitants as well. The silent generation were well to the right of boomers in every survey I've seen - it was the people old enough to have fought in the war who were leftwing, and they're nearly all dead now.
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Nov 18, 2019 00:30
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Braggart posted:Nah. There are a lot of uncommon/rare medical conditions out there, and quite a few people who have them. This seems like an ableist comment you're making, which I'm sure you don't want to be doing fair! i should have said, "anytime a member of the anglo-saxon aristocracy says..."
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Nov 18, 2019 00:31
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Guavanaut posted:*5 minutes later* We regret to inform you that the dog is a dog nonce. But at least the excited yapping and crotch licking while answering at prime ministers questions is more intelligible than Boris.
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Nov 18, 2019 00:36
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Scikar posted:Thanks, this is excellent! I'm still holding out for a political reporter somewhere to write up what they got wrong and why in 2017, as a precursor to their analysis for 2019. Without the first part, the second is worthless. But in the media bubble it's like 2017 never happened. The media class has completely huffed on their own farts and bought the 'Theresa' May lost the election' line and blamed all positive Labour gains on that .
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Nov 18, 2019 00:38
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Rarity posted:The media class has completely huffed on their own farts and bought the 'Theresa' May lost the election' line and blamed all positive Labour gains on that . Good.
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Nov 18, 2019 00:39
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jabby posted:https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1196189907301158915 My family’s still there (I’m on a work assignment in Brazil rn). They’ve been sending me pictures of the streets near our flat with bricks all over the place and roadblocks up that are vaguely reminiscent of footage of the blitz, with people going to work picking their way over heaps of masonry. Apparently some of the protestors have also started running protection rackets on local shops over which ones get trashed. And the army garrison got involved yesterday. So far all they have done is clear away roadblocks but it’s got everyone jittery.
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Nov 18, 2019 00:45
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Bobstar posted:Yeah I'm pretty sure my gran (92? I think) votes Labour and voted Remain, unlike her boomer son (my uncle), who probably doesn't. The people old enough to remember the War and especially the Depression were the core of the left vote in general until Millennials got old enough to vote in number, at least in most records I've seen of voting habits by age. Honestly wonder what it would have been like if more of them stuck around to vote with Millennials. Though I suppose if life expectancy increased like that, the boomers would then last longer too.
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Nov 18, 2019 00:52
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Bobby Deluxe posted:1) Starting to getting a bit concerned that I haven't seen anything through the door from Labour so far. Had about five different flyers from the Libs, with the usual EU election bar chart. But nothing from Labour. There is definitely prioritisation going on, and a lot of Labour safe seats are actually having trouble finding volunteers for local leaflet distribution because they're all out campaigning in marginals. I've only just received the first batch of letters to deliver to Labour supporters in my very safe seat, no leaflets for general distribution as yet. Plus a plea to let them know if I can do any extra rounds as they're short-handed.
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Nov 18, 2019 00:54
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So now the other side of my mouth is also giving me wisdom tooth pain and even on cocodamol it's still really bad. I'm crying all the time and I don't know what to do.
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Nov 18, 2019 00:57
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