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there was a care home on the route today and someone suggested seeing if they need postal votes (we didn't because we were in a rush and no one actually wanted to) not sure if I'm being too cynical but I also thought it might be a bit of an own goal, making sure a bunch of octogenarians vote
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Nov 17, 2019 21:26
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XMNN posted:there was a care home on the route today and someone suggested seeing if they need postal votes (we didn't because we were in a rush and no one actually wanted to) I was wondering something similar about patients in hospital - I bet a lot of people don't know how to still vote from hospital but I bet you'd find a lot of Labour support there.
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Nov 17, 2019 21:29
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Lol no , the guardian guy doing vox pops was interviewing a man who was formerly homeless, and he asked “who won’t you vote for” and he said “Lib dems...greens...labour” because of brexit, even when Harris asked about why not sort the schools, roads etc, the guy was still wrapped up in the brexit mindset
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Nov 17, 2019 21:34
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The only advice I can give about the polls (advice that I'm too dumb to follow myself) is to try not to spend time thinking about them, because there's so much contradictory information that you can go mad tying yourself in knots: all the polls show substantial Tory leadsbut they showed the same margins at this point in 2017 and it meant gently caress all in the end but the polls were showing swings to Labour at this point in the 2017 campaignbut the 2017 polls were rebounding from historic lows, the initial gap to the Tories was much bigger but surely we'd see some movement in at least some of them by this pointbut the methodology that at least some of them are using is questionable at best and other have vested interests in showing a big Tory victory ...and on and on and on. If they're still showing a 15 point gap in two weeks it's probably time to feel bad, but even then I still wouldn't be sure.
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Nov 17, 2019 21:39
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Maybe I'm cynical but at this point I assume that political analysis is dead and at this point everyone's just proselytising but with various layers of academic looking mystique applied. My only slight doubt is the possibility of these people fooling themselves.
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Nov 17, 2019 21:44
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Remember that we have had double the youth registrations to vote that we had for the last election, and also that everyone under about 50 is more likely to be voting Labour than Conservative. There's your polling data.
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Nov 17, 2019 21:46
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Chuka Umana posted:Regardless, Labour is done if they don't close the gap after the debate and manifesto launch. Lmao who gives a poo poo what pollsters and commentators say. They're consistently wrong on leftist populaist/activist movements.
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Nov 17, 2019 21:47
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Apraxin posted:The only advice I can give about the polls (advice that I'm too dumb to follow myself) is to try not to spend time thinking about them, because there's so much contradictory information that you can go mad tying yourself in knots: Not to mention the state of the questions. "If Labour were going to make you eat all your family members by law with the pets for dessert, who would you vote for in the upcoming election?"
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Nov 17, 2019 21:47
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Azza Bamboo posted:Maybe I'm cynical but at this point I assume that political analysis is dead and at this point everyone's just proselytising but with various layers of academic looking mystique applied. My only slight doubt is the possibility of these people fooling themselves. Analysis in general... political, journalistic, academic... I've felt for a while that a lot of these institutions are just spinning their wheels and recycling tropes in a really superficial way that's missing a lot of the ground truth. Maybe it's a late capitalism thing, I don't know.
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Nov 17, 2019 21:50
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OwlFancier posted:As far as I know weather doesn't affect turnout much at all, but I don't know if the extent to which it does affect turnout is distributed evenly across the population. That seems to be true. Though there are a handful of papers that argue poor weather for the region directs people to vote more small-c conservatively, with mood as the mediating factor. These generally falls within Positive Psychology frameworks on what feelings are for - positive emotion encourages us to explore new options/alternatives, whereas negative emotions draw us inwards to conserve what we have. Based on on these papers, my recommendation is political parties not currently in power might benefit from an upbeat dance-pop campaign song about the high likelihood of 'things' improving
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Nov 17, 2019 21:54
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Azza Bamboo posted:Maybe I'm cynical but at this point I assume that political analysis is dead and at this point everyone's just proselytising but with various layers of academic looking mystique applied. My only slight doubt is the possibility of these people fooling themselves. This is all it ever was.
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Nov 17, 2019 21:55
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pitch a fitness posted:. Based on on these papers, my recommendation is political parties not currently in power might benefit from an upbeat dance-pop campaign song about the high likelihood of 'things' improving  But honestly I'd rather listen to 8 hours of "ohhh Jeremy Corbyn" than hear one verse of D:Ream ever again
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Nov 17, 2019 21:55
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How can you say political analysis is dead? We have people like Peston on the case: https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1196009156983033861?s=20
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Nov 17, 2019 22:00
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OwlFancier posted:As far as I know weather doesn't affect turnout much at all, but I don't know if the extent to which it does affect turnout is distributed evenly across the population. Local experience is that it depresses Labour votes especially in areas where there are a lot of single parent families with young children. (Imagine having to get a couple of toddlers and a pram all ready to go out in bad weather to walk almost a mile to a polling station especially when you think it won't make much difference). Actually I guess if you are organising polling day transport something for these voters might be useful. Transport considerations tend to focus on the elderly and mobility impaired.
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Nov 17, 2019 22:00
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https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1196153061024157696?s=19 Hmm
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Nov 17, 2019 22:00
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HauntedRobot posted:Analysis in general... political, journalistic, academic... I've felt for a while that a lot of these institutions are just spinning their wheels and recycling tropes in a really superficial way that's missing a lot of the ground truth. Maybe it's a late capitalism thing, I don't know. Last election you had people like John Curtice predicting a Tory landslide based on nothing but bottom line polling figures and recent council election results. In fact when Survation brought out their final poll they all assumed that was wrong because it was the outlier. There was no sign of them making any attempt to question how these polls were calculated, what weightings were employed, etc to determine which was most accurate. This thread has done a more in-depth analysis of polling that most 'professionals'.
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Nov 17, 2019 22:02
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I'm extremely here for seeing how many times Labour can "Massively outperform expectations" in a row
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Nov 17, 2019 22:03
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someone reweighted that Kantar poll with 2017 numbers: https://twitter.com/runehol/status/1195865184293793793 If we assume, that due to the HUGE number of voters registering for this election, and that those voters are of course going to be weighted toward the younger end of the spectrum, then all of these polls (assuming they're using similarly batshit weighting) are extremely dubious E: you can actually see the age groups of the voters registering here: https://www.gov.uk/performance/register-to-vote/registrations-by-age-group Predictably, it's massive numbers of under 34's 
Bardeh fucked around with this message at 22:20 on Nov 17, 2019 |
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Nov 17, 2019 22:15
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Yeah I'm sure 90% of pensioners will come out on a freezing December morning.
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Nov 17, 2019 22:17
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Hi https://twitter.com/shaunjlawson/status/1196159242782302208 https://twitter.com/IanLaveryMP/status/1195638444770365445 gently caress the Tories. Bye
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Nov 17, 2019 22:19
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Lots of pensioners do postal votes though so theory is the older vote is less disrupted by cold/lovely weather.
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Nov 17, 2019 22:19
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The issue is, just like with YouGov last time, the pollsters look at their raw data and then play with the weighting/turnout sliders seemingly based on achieving a result that looks right to them. Turning a one point Labour lead from the raw data into a ten point Tory lead through weighting is just insane, it means you might as well forgo polling anyone in the first place and just base the whole result on your assumptions about turnout.
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Nov 17, 2019 22:19
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According to facebook some right wing nutter made this meme and someone Labour has co-opted it:
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Nov 17, 2019 22:20
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XMNN posted:there was a care home on the route today and someone suggested seeing if they need postal votes (we didn't because we were in a rush and no one actually wanted to) You might be surprised. Octogenarians are pre-Boomer, remember the war and tend to trend Remain. See: my gran.
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Nov 17, 2019 22:20
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feedmegin posted:You might be surprised. Octogenarians are pre-Boomer, remember the war and tend to trend Remain. See: my gran. And remember back to pre-NHS when you would have to choose which child saw the doctor and got the meds.
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Nov 17, 2019 22:22
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feedmegin posted:You might be surprised. Octogenarians are pre-Boomer, remember the war and tend to trend Remain. See: my gran. This mirrors my experience with 80+ people in known fashy enclave of Essex. I've seen plenty that are pro-remain and pro-Labour to the exasperation of their offspring.
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Nov 17, 2019 22:23
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Ms Adequate posted:I'm extremely here for seeing how many times Labour can "Massively outperform expectations" in a row Too little too late, Jeremy! You didn't outperform expectations by enough! 
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Nov 17, 2019 22:25
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Jaeluni Asjil posted:According to facebook some right wing nutter made this meme and someone Labour has co-opted it: This reminds me strongly of Labour Live, where Len McLusky was literally giving away free ice-cream from a Unite-branded ice-cream van. It was pretty awesome.
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Nov 17, 2019 22:25
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TTerrible posted:This mirrors my experience with 80+ people in known fashy enclave of Essex. I've seen plenty that are pro-remain and pro-Labour to the exasperation of their offspring. Yeah my grandad loving hated Kinnock and Blair for example. The actually lived WWII and prior olds broadly don't agree with this poo poo. It's boomers and rich fuckers of various ages pulling the ladder up that prop up Tories because they take for granted all the things Tories now want to take away (or are too rich to care).
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Nov 17, 2019 22:26
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OwlFancier posted:I think the PM can also be a lord if necessary I'm fairly sure ministers don't have to be commons MPs but I can't remember if they have to be at least lords. The PM can literally be a (foreign born even) corgi. They are whoever the Queen picks as her chief advisor. There are no rules.
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Nov 17, 2019 22:27
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feedmegin posted:You might be surprised. Octogenarians are pre-Boomer, remember the war and tend to trend Remain. See: my gran. Yeah I'm pretty sure my gran (92? I think) votes Labour and voted Remain, unlike her boomer son (my uncle), who probably doesn't. The difference between remembering the war and remembering there having been a war.
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Nov 17, 2019 22:27
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Braggart posted:Remember that we have had double the youth registrations to vote that we had for the last election, and also that everyone under about 50 is more likely to be voting Labour than Conservative. Yes, but where do they live? It's no good if they all live in Liverpool Walton and Knowsley and East Ham; some of them have to be in places like Cheltenham and Carlisle and Crawley. Trin Tragula fucked around with this message at 22:41 on Nov 17, 2019 |
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Nov 17, 2019 22:39
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jabby posted:The issue is, just like with YouGov last time, the pollsters look at their raw data and then play with the weighting/turnout sliders seemingly based on achieving a result that looks right to them. This is terrible for Jeremy Corbyn. Bundy posted:Yeah my grandad loving hated Kinnock and Blair for example.  "The man looks like he's never done a day's work outside of selling dodgy cars." re Blair.
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Nov 17, 2019 22:42
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feedmegin posted:The PM can literally be a (foreign born even) corgi. They are whoever the Queen picks as her chief advisor. There are no rules. Rule is they need to be able to command a majority in the commons.
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Nov 17, 2019 22:51
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feedmegin posted:The PM can literally be a (foreign born even) corgi. They are whoever the Queen picks as her chief advisor. There are no rules. Ooh! A way back into people's good graces! Oh Mummy? Where are you, Mummy? 
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Nov 17, 2019 22:53
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I look forward to this getting as much attention in the press as the non-Jewish authored letter did.... lol
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Nov 17, 2019 22:54
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Braggart posted:Ooh! A way back into people's good graces! note the lack of sweat
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Nov 17, 2019 22:55
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mehall posted:Rule is they need to be able to command a majority in the commons.
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Nov 17, 2019 22:55
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mehall posted:Rule is they need to be able to command a majority in the commons. Well teeeechnically *raises royal standard, institutes Commissions of Array*
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Nov 17, 2019 22:55
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Trin Tragula posted:Yes, but where do they live? It's no good if they all live in Liverpool Walton and Knowsley and East Ham; some of them have to be in places like Cheltenham and Carlisle and Crawley. They live all over the country. The point is that most age groups break for Labour, and the youth vote which was so instrumental in Labour's success last time is going to be even bigger this time. The younger age brackets break dramatically for Labour, as you might expect. If all you've known as an adult is this Tory government then you probably aren't voting for them unless you happen to be an oppressor yourself. Essentially, most of the population is more likely to vote Labour than Tory. The polls we've seen are garbage, with ludicrous weightings to create a false narrative. The Labour vote is being heavily underestimated in an attempt to depress it. Don't let it work on you 
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Nov 17, 2019 22:59
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