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I think what the "it doesn't make sense for Assad to use chemical weapons" argument misses is that sure, maybe it doesn't make sense for him to personally gas someone from the safety of his bunker/palace, but it does if you're a military company under orders to take some city district and you're not too hot on urban warfare with an entrenched enemy. And in turn, Assad depends on keeping the army loyal, so it makes sense for him to permit it or at least not crack down on it.
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Nov 25, 2019 10:15
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RIP Syndrome posted:I think what the "it doesn't make sense for Assad to use chemical weapons" argument misses is that sure, maybe it doesn't make sense for him to personally gas someone from the safety of his bunker/palace, but it does if you're a military company under orders to take some city district and you're not too hot on urban warfare with an entrenched enemy. And in turn, Assad depends on keeping the army loyal, so it makes sense for him to permit it or at least not crack down on it. Especially with chlorine, since, like white phosphorus, it's unlikely that anyone's going to actually crack down on Syria over that, especially as chlorine has a number of legitimate commercial/civilian uses. What was nutty to use was sarin, like in the 2017 Khan Shaykhun attack that Trump responded to. Using sarin in 2017 was so stupid that I wonder if it was (semi) accidental and they meant to fire chlorine munitions, but accidentally used old sarin munitions. I have no idea if that could possibly be confused by some commander who found old chemical shells that were not destroyed in response to Obama's "red line", or how long they can be stored, but using sarin/vx seems absolutely incredibly stupid. Assad's army has used a poo poo ton of chlorine munitions though, and I don't think anyone outside the hardest of hardcore "Assad did nothing wrong" apologists like Max Blumenthal denied that. I mean yeah I'm sure Assad never explicitly ordered "use chemical weapons to clear out those terrorist women and children" but uh, the chlorine use was way too regular to blame on rogue commanders. E: Plus, regarding chlorine, the rebels have also used chlorine gas attacks on government-held areas. Saladman fucked around with this message at 10:44 on Nov 25, 2019 |
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Nov 25, 2019 10:39
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You will never truly understand the amount of atrocities the arab regimes are willing to commit in order to keep themselves in power unless you are an arab and lived in the region.
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Nov 25, 2019 11:11
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Saladman posted:I mean yeah I'm sure Assad never explicitly ordered "use chemical weapons to clear out those terrorist women and children" but uh, the chlorine use was way too regular to blame on rogue commanders. That's funny, I'm sure he did exactly that, with the Russians assuring him there would be no consequences. There were no consequences.
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Nov 25, 2019 16:29
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Considering the Kurds he gassed were actively our allies at the time I'm guessing not, though I would also be quite surprised if the US was explicitly telling him to (or for that matter had the sway) gas Iranian border towns welcome to surprise, friend. we were actively handing him coordinates and saying "boy, sure would be bad for the iranians if this spot got gassed, wink wink"
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Nov 25, 2019 17:04
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Saladman posted:Especially with chlorine, since, like white phosphorus, it's unlikely that anyone's going to actually crack down on Syria over that, especially as chlorine has a number of legitimate commercial/civilian uses. Keep in mind prior to the April 4th 2017 Khan Sheikhoun Sarin attack there were two more likely Sarin attacks in Al Lataminah in late March. Those incidents got barely any coverage on social media at the time, so zero news coverage. Significantly a lot of debris was recovered from the March 30th attack site, including two filling caps that were identical in design to the one recovered from Khan Sheikhoun, indicating it's likely the same type of bomb was used in each attack. I'm certain it's a Syrian M4000 chemical bomb, and based on what we know about them they require loading with Sarin precursors before they're loaded on the aircraft that drops them, and then those precursors are mixed inside the bomb to produce Sarin, so requires special equipment and planning to prepare one for use.
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Nov 25, 2019 17:16
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So the NYTimes is reporting that the US is "resuming large-scale operations against ISIS in Northern Syria" https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/25/us/politics/us-syria-isis.html
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Nov 25, 2019 19:13
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Brown Moses posted:Keep in mind prior to the April 4th 2017 Khan Sheikhoun Sarin attack there were two more likely Sarin attacks in Al Lataminah in late March. Those incidents got barely any coverage on social media at the time, so zero news coverage. Significantly a lot of debris was recovered from the March 30th attack site, including two filling caps that were identical in design to the one recovered from Khan Sheikhoun, indicating it's likely the same type of bomb was used in each attack. I'm certain it's a Syrian M4000 chemical bomb, and based on what we know about them they require loading with Sarin precursors before they're loaded on the aircraft that drops them, and then those precursors are mixed inside the bomb to produce Sarin, so requires special equipment and planning to prepare one for use. Regarding the special equipment and planning to prepare one for use... does that mean they have to load it shortly prior to using it, like a liquid fuel rocket? Or if they loaded one in 2011, could they drop it just fine in 2018 and it'd just have diminished lethality, like eating a 1970s tylenol found in a prepper's fallout shelter? I was under the impression that once loaded, most chemical munitions could stay around in situ just fine for quite a while until they rust through or whatever. I'm just kind of curious, it seems indisputable that chlorine was used intentionally as a chemical weapon, but it seems like the SAA would have to be pretty loving stupid to use sarin/vx/mustard gas intentionally post-2014, especially since chlorine gas attacks seem to be an internationally-acceptable way of doing nearly the same type of area denial attack. Given how often they used chlorine after they ratified the CWC, accidental use of sarin seems like Occam's razor to me -- without knowing anything about the chemistry about their storage and firing. If they could be stored in similar-looking bombs as chlorine, and last as long, then that would seem much more likely to me. Also, I'm assuming the Wiki is exhaustive; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Use_of_chemical_weapons_in_the_Syrian_Civil_War
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Nov 25, 2019 20:22
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Saladman posted:Regarding the special equipment and planning to prepare one for use... does that mean they have to load it shortly prior to using it, like a liquid fuel rocket? Or if they loaded one in 2011, could they drop it just fine in 2018 and it'd just have diminished lethality, like eating a 1970s tylenol found in a prepper's fallout shelter? I was under the impression that once loaded, most chemical munitions could stay around in situ just fine for quite a while until they rust through or whatever. I break down the information that led me to believe it's an M4000 chemical bomb https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2019/09/24/the-first-images-of-the-type-of-chemical-bomb-used-in-syrias-sarin-attacks/ This is how they load them quote:It also meant that engineers from the SSRC also had to design bombs that were specific for sarin, and which were quite different to ordinary munitions. “On the outside, they resemble conventional bombs of 250 and 500 kilos of TNT,” explained one of them. “But inside they were totally different, divided into two compartments. The first, at the front, carried the DF. The second, at the rear, [contained] the isopropyl and hexamine. This mixture is stirred together by a stirring rod that can be activated by sort of crank at the rear of the bomb. When the two compartments are filled up, a technician winds the crank which advances the stirring rod to the point it breaks the wall of mica. The sarin synthesis reaction is set off inside the bomb, placed under a cold shower and maintained within a very precise temperature range which is controlled by a laser thermometer,” continued the former SSRC source. “After which, all that’s left is to introduce, in the allocated hold at the point of the bomb, the explosive charge and detonator – altimetric, chronometric or other – and to place the bomb under the wing of the plane. The load must be very precisely measured. If it is too big, the heat given off can cause the decomposition of the product, or the formation of a cloud of gas too far from the ground, which would render it ineffective. In principle, a 250-kilo bomb contains 133 litres of sarin, a few kilos of TNT and a ballast to preserve the aerodynamic characteristics of the weapon. A 500-kilo bomb contains 266 litres of sarin. The ideal altitude for the explosion of the bomb is about 60 metres.” GPPi did a very good report on Syria's CW use focused on why they use CW https://www.gppi.net/2019/02/17/the-logic-of-chemical-weapons-use-in-syria
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Nov 25, 2019 20:29
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Interesting, thanks! That would certainly seem to indicate a deliberate choice for them to have used sarin. As an aside, that quote from the SSRC has a mistake in it. "The second, at the rear, [contained] the isopropyl and hexamine". There's either a missing word, or a mistake in the transcription. I'm not a chemical weapons expert, but I am a biochemist, and no trained chemist would ever say "isopropyl" without a word after it when explaining a mixture of chemicals, as you can have "isopropyl" anything. The chemist in the quote almost certainly either said "isopropanol" or "isopropyl alcohol". This might seem like nitpicking, but it's honestly a pretty important distinction. If I had a trainee or student that told me they used "isopropyl" in their reagent preparation, I would set them down for a serious discussion about the importance of using precise, specific chemical names in chemistry. E: I guess maybe you could say "hey could I borrow some of your isopropyl" as shorthand when doing an experiment, but even that sounds weird to me when I say it out loud right now. Isopropanol has a a lot of commonly-used names (2-propanol, isopropyl alcohol, isopropanol) so maybe there are regional differences, but I would be very surprised if there is any place where a chemist would, even in shorthand amongst colleagues, refer to it as "isopropyl", and definitely they would not when explaining a mixing process to a reporter. Saladman fucked around with this message at 23:24 on Nov 25, 2019 |
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Nov 25, 2019 23:14
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Saladman posted:Interesting, thanks! That would certainly seem to indicate a deliberate choice for them to have used sarin. Yeah, there's definitely a mistake there in the original text, not sure where it occurred though, but the Syrian Sarin recipe is well known by now, plenty of documentation by the OPCW of the various component parts, and the mixing process described is consistent with the M4000 bomb design. It took me two years to find an actual video of one, rather than the diagram Russia decided to publish, which until then was the only public image of one of those bombs. I thought I would post this here, because it's on these very Middle East threads where everything that led to this started; the documentary about Bellingcat just won an Emmy: https://twitter.com/iemmys/status/1199147751126294530 If you want to see it now it's on some streaming services, and I'm sure it'll be on many more soon: https://twitter.com/bellingcat/status/1199255133332393984
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Nov 26, 2019 12:38
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Well done Brown Moses. I know some people like to drag you in this thread for whatever reason but it's always interesting and informative to see your investigations.
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Nov 26, 2019 14:20
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Flayer posted:Well done Brown Moses. I know some people like to drag you in this thread for whatever reason but it's always interesting and informative to see your investigations. +1 Always great to see you getting more recognition for your hard work.
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Nov 26, 2019 14:39
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Awesome. Well deserved.
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Nov 26, 2019 16:15
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Brown Moses posted:I thought I would post this here, because it's on these very Middle East threads where everything that led to this started; the documentary about Bellingcat just won an Emmy: Congrats, by the way! I had wanted to see that documentary at a film festival here a few months ago, but it was sold out way in advance.
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Nov 26, 2019 20:15
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Iraqi PM Abdul Mahdi resigns after police kill 40 protesters About time he took the hint, but the price is unbearable. And Sudan is Middle East, right? Oh well, close enough. Some moderately positive news. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-50596805 quote:Sudan has repealed a restrictive public order law that controlled how women acted and dressed in public. Nenonen fucked around with this message at 14:41 on Nov 29, 2019 |
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Nov 29, 2019 14:37
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Less Claypool posted:It also doesn’t make sense why Assad would use chemical weapons in the first place. Hello, new mod of D&D!
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Nov 29, 2019 14:45
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https://twitter.com/imp_navigator/s...ghtmode%3Dfalse
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Nov 29, 2019 17:53
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Material wise the sauds came out mostly ok
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Nov 29, 2019 19:36
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Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:welcome to surprise, friend. Don't tell this guy https://twitter.com/JebBush/status/1200544650739748865
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Nov 30, 2019 06:30
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Iraq is beginning to see significant tribalism once again. Irans influence is creating a tribalist movement resistance. Lets remember pre 1990 Iraq was part of a future syria-iraq alliance. Both of which are now castrated in terms of foreign policy projection. Iraqs people have mever given up the idea of returning to a saddam style govt to "get things done" etc ad the country is still crippled
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Dec 1, 2019 02:31
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Iraq is beginning to see significant tribalism once again. Irans influence is creating a tribalist movement resistance. This is like four dumb and wrong ideas chopped into a gibberish salad.
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Dec 1, 2019 04:22
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Zurakara posted:This is like four dumb and wrong ideas chopped into a gibberish salad. I've had War Crime Gigolo on my ignore list for like a year and I haven't regretted one second of it. And like, only him. Everyone else on the list got banned or doesn't post here anymore.
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Dec 1, 2019 06:13
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Zurakara posted:This is like four dumb and wrong ideas chopped into a gibberish salad. it's part of the reason I like having leomarr around, it is almost impossible to get a bead on what the hell he thinks he is wrong in unpredictable ways and there's value in that
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Dec 1, 2019 06:18
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Zurakara posted:This is like four dumb and wrong ideas chopped into a gibberish salad. Iraqi Tribal militias have been a driving factor of the fight against ISIS, gaining stockpile and support over the last few years. Not sure how that's a dumb idea, as Iranian PMUs are Tribal in nature as much as their opposition. Iraqi Baathists and Syrian Baathist in the late 70s wished to unite the country (The first attempt to remove SPA), 12 years later Syria supported uprooting Iraq's occupation of Kuwait. https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2018/04/30/605240844/15-years-after-u-s-invasion-some-iraqis-are-nostalgic-for-saddam-hussein-era quote:By October 1978, Iraq President, Ahmed Hassan al-Bakr began working closely with Assad to foil the Camp David Accords; signing in Baghdad a charter for Joint National Action which provided for the "closest form of unity ties" including "complete military unity" as well as "economic, political and cultural unification". Iraq is a crippled country with very little industrial power and rolling blackouts. Are you stating the American occupation has put the country in a GREAT economic situation?
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Dec 1, 2019 06:55
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Iraqi Tribal militias have been a driving factor of the fight against ISIS, gaining stockpile and support over the last few years. Not sure how that's a dumb idea, as Iranian PMUs are Tribal in nature as much as their opposition. Do you mean sectarian? Because Iraq still has actual tribes, but they aren't particularly heavily affiliated with most militias and affiliation is trending down. Pan-arabism is dead and has been for longer than I've been alive. Baathism is gone in Iraq because it was without a coherent ideology for decades before being kicked out of power. People are nostalgic for the Saddam era because there was running electricity, water, and secure education before Bush inflicted an Ayn Rand utopia on the country. None of these people are ideologically "Baathist", especially of the panarab variety.
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Dec 1, 2019 07:27
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Zurakara posted:Do you mean sectarian? Because Iraq still has actual tribes, but they aren't particularly heavily affiliated with most militias and affiliation is trending down. Maybe my structure was a little lacking, but we're pretty much on the same page here. I'm not saying the Baathists of iraq still exist in their original form, but Iraqi citizenry longs for a return of strong man politics with a "GET poo poo DONE" Saddam Era Political structure, mostly connected with Baathism. What do you think the mainstream Iraqi was thinking when Saddam annexed Kuwait? They were proud as gently caress because they like many other humans suffer from fascism romance. American involvement has hosed the countries desire to westernize in any way shape or form. Baathism is dead, but what the populations mindset isn't.
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Dec 1, 2019 07:33
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Those wily but child-like Arabs, needing a strong dictator to rule them, eh, WCG?
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Dec 1, 2019 10:40
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Rust Martialis posted:Those wily but child-like Arabs, needing a strong dictator to rule them, eh, WCG? Any human under immense stress may look to strong dictators to guide them and protect them. Iraqi literacy dropped from 75% to 50% from 2000 to 2018. Thats a pretty huge deal. I get this is some racist baiting or something. Its obvious you didnt actually read anything I posted but your point is valid in a way. I am saying less educated people elect and desire strongmen. Which is pretty loving true. WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 20:02 on Dec 1, 2019 |
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Dec 1, 2019 19:33
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A clearer video of the Apache being shot down in Yemen has been posted https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6mP5bAtVBI
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Dec 1, 2019 19:38
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Iraqi literacy dropped from 75% to 50% from 2000 to 2018. Thats a pretty huge deal. Where does that figure come from? I'm curious about how literacy could drop like that; I doubt that adults are forgetting how to read, or that literate people are dying at a significantly higher rate than illiterate ones in the same age cohort, so I assume it must be mainly due to children whose education was disrupted growing up. That, or there's an issue with the measurement, i.e., either the current statistics are using a stricter measure of literary than Saddam-era ones, or the Saddam-era government was outright falsifying the literary statistics. It's not particularly relevant to your broader point (Iraqis have definitely been under a lot of stress, regardless of how literate they were/are), but I'm curious.
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Dec 1, 2019 21:02
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Silver2195 posted:Where does that figure come from? I'm curious about how literacy could drop like that; I doubt that adults are forgetting how to read, or that literate people are dying at a significantly higher rate than illiterate ones in the same age cohort, so I assume it must be mainly due to children whose education was disrupted growing up. That, or there's an issue with the measurement, i.e., either the current statistics are using a stricter measure of literary than Saddam-era ones, or the Saddam-era government was outright falsifying the literary statistics. It’s even more absurd when you look at the data. Literacy was supposedly 75% in 2000 and 43% in 2013, so clearly there is some issue with the metrics. Those numbers are cited on UNESCO’s website so it’s not some random organization saying that. I mean I can believe it went down but a drop from 75% to 43% in 13 years makes no sense even with absurd population growth. Someone could do the math but I think that would require there to be like max 20% literacy rate for people aged 15-30 for those numbers to work. Or for people to somehow forget how to read and write. Saladman fucked around with this message at 21:25 on Dec 1, 2019 |
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Dec 1, 2019 21:20
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Saladman posted:It’s even more absurd when you look at the data. Literacy was supposedly 75% in 2000 and 43% in 2013, so clearly there is some issue with the metrics. Those numbers are cited on UNESCO’s website so it’s not some random organization saying that. Hundreds of thousands of people died as a result of the fighting or its follow on effects and many educated people left the country as well, so it's a combination of people being born and then not educated as well as already educated people dying nor leaving. But even then, a 25% drop in literacy seems way too high.
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Dec 1, 2019 21:35
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Not sure about the veracity of the source (The Al-monitor) but this article discusses that enrollment in literacy centers in Iraq have dropped dramatically between 2013 and today. The article suggests that the reason for the drop may be tied to the fact that the government no longer provides educational stipends to individuals attending these institutions. https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/12/iraq-illiteracy-education-culture.html Kawasaki Nun fucked around with this message at 21:42 on Dec 1, 2019 |
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Dec 1, 2019 21:40
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Kawasaki Nun posted:Not sure about the veracity of the source (The Al-monitor) but this article discusses that enrollment in literacy centers in Iraq have dropped dramatically between 2013 and today. Could be, but UNESCO cites the drop between 2000 and 2013 from 74% to like 43%, so what’s happened since 2013 is not directly related to seeing whether standards changed. One thing I just thought of: I wonder if they’re checking literacy.. in Arabic. It does seem possible to me that literacy of Arabic in Kurdish-speaking regions has dropped to like < 20% for people under 35. I mean it’s all been a disaster of course and I believe the trend, but I’m curious about their methodology.
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Dec 1, 2019 21:44
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It's hard to pinpoint what aspect of American "rebuilding" in Iraq was the most incompetent, but education is near the top. The entire first year's budget was offloaded to American universities to "invest" however they saw fit and tons of schools were commandeered as military bases and replaced with literally nothing. During the occupation alot of Iraqi schools were basically just hollow rooms without chairs and desks, and a skeleton crew staff of inexperienced begginer teachers because of debaathification policies. Disruption to the education system at higher levels meant that new teachers were produced at a snails pace. Due to gigantic population boom the average age in Iraq is 20, so half the country was educated in these conditions.
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Dec 1, 2019 22:01
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I post about this roughly annually, the the entire American plan for rebuilding Iraq is on wikipedia and it is worth a read because it reads from start to finish like something some fifteen year old jerking off to ayn rand would write. The core premise is that if we can establish a free market in Iraq it will by magical free market power solve all other problems, so of course the rest of the details are basically how to install a super simplistic power structure, how to ensure halliburton gets all the contracts, and how the free market will fix sectarianism. It's a trip, highly recommend checking it out Also, 'establish a free market' just meant 'get all the oil facilities online again' Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 23:05 on Dec 1, 2019 |
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Dec 1, 2019 22:58
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Shockingly, they have largely been removed from wikipedia, but they're archived here https://web.archive.org/web/20100206084411/http://www.cpa-iraq.org/regulations/#Orders
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Dec 1, 2019 23:21
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Shockingly, they have largely been removed from wikipedia, but they're archived here https://web.archive.org/web/20100206084411/http://www.cpa-iraq.org/regulations/#Orders It took awhile before they caught on to the potential, but the natsec folk gently caress with wikipedia pretty heavily these days.
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Dec 1, 2019 23:43
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Zurakara posted:It's hard to pinpoint what aspect of American "rebuilding" in Iraq was the most incompetent, but education is near the top. The entire first year's budget was offloaded to American universities to "invest" however they saw fit and tons of schools were commandeered as military bases and replaced with literally nothing. During the occupation alot of Iraqi schools were basically just hollow rooms without chairs and desks, and a skeleton crew staff of inexperienced begginer teachers because of debaathification policies. Disruption to the education system at higher levels meant that new teachers were produced at a snails pace. Due to gigantic population boom the average age in Iraq is 20, so half the country was educated in these conditions.
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Dec 1, 2019 23:51
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