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I'm watching my previous Constituency; The Vale of Glamorgan to see if noted rape endorser Alun Cairns gets voted in again. Only seen a few signs around on land with his name on them. Oh gently caress sake; 113 is probably the amount of votes Lib Dems will get here. Year 113: Emperor Trajan sails from Rome to begin his expedition against Parthia. He arrives in Athens where Parthian envoys greets him with olive branches, a sign of peace.
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Dec 8, 2019 14:54
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Angepain posted:Uxbridge and South Ruislip - some guy named Boris, seems like a bit of an arse, i'm sure the electorate will do the sensible thing and vote for his opponent The Labour candidate Ali Milani has won the coveted Lord Buckethead endorsement
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Dec 8, 2019 14:55
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it's worth noting that Dennis Skinner's opponent gained votes from a collapsing UKIP in 2017 (conservatives gaining 8000ish votes almost 1:1 from UKIP losing that number) and as such his majority decreased, but in the sense he got more than 50% of the total votes in 2015 his majority increased in 2017. if bolstover winds up a swing seat the election is already badly lost.
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Dec 8, 2019 14:57
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Has anybody got the link to the seat betting spreadsheet? It doesn't seem to be in the OP, would be nice to get more people putting down WOT THEY REKON for some levity and money towards charity 
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Dec 8, 2019 15:01
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CoolCab posted:it's worth noting that Dennis Skinner's opponent gained votes from a collapsing UKIP in 2017 (conservatives gaining 8000ish votes almost 1:1 from UKIP losing that number) and as such his majority decreased, but in the sense he got more than 50% of the total votes in 2015 his majority increased in 2017. By the Skinnerv 'is teef.
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Dec 8, 2019 15:01
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All this tactical voting/Hugh Grant stuff is worrying me. They're obviously doing interpretive dance forms of those loving bar charts.
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Dec 8, 2019 15:03
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Angepain posted:I'm currently putting together my personal list of constituencies to keep an eye on during the results, if anyone has any suggestions for constituencies that are interesting or generally might be gained or lost by a thread favourite/enemy/meme let me know. here's my list so far, which may be skewed toward my own narrow interests: Thurrock - 300-vote lead for the Tories in 2017 in what's probably the most-Leave constituency in the south-east, and one where the Labour leaver>UKIP>Tory pipeline has been in full effect. a big swing in either direction here will give a pretty good sign of what way the election's going.
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Dec 8, 2019 15:07
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Two former Tory-voting local businessmen have done little videos for us endorsing Labour!
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Dec 8, 2019 15:07
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Bundy posted:All this tactical voting/Hugh Grant stuff is worrying me. They're obviously doing interpretive dance forms of those loving bar charts. Don't worry what's the worst that could happe...  Oh. Right.
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Dec 8, 2019 15:13
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Birkenhead - one of the activists I spoke to from there thinks we'll win, but its closer than he'd like (based on anecdotal stuff from his canvassing). also you might get to see Frank field lose his seat
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Dec 8, 2019 15:15
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RockyB posted:Don't worry what's the worst that could happe... Ah, so that's what will be standing in for Boris in the Andrew Neil interview, yes?
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Dec 8, 2019 15:15
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Braggart posted:Ah, so that's what will be standing in for Boris in the Andrew Neil interview, yes? Jo Swinson? I mean if he wins, probably she will be doing exactly that from here until the heat death of the universe.
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Dec 8, 2019 15:16
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also I noticed John Mann has changed his Twitter account to @LordJohnMann very much the same energy as the guy from my work who has PhD (Cantab) in his email signature
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Dec 8, 2019 15:19
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Is there a word for the amount of glee i would feel for Swinson losing her seat?
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Dec 8, 2019 15:19
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serious gaylord posted:Is there a word for the amount of glee i would feel for Swinson losing her seat? Liberale Demokraten-schadenfreude
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Dec 8, 2019 15:23
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serious gaylord posted:Is there a word for the amount of glee i would feel for Swinson losing her seat? Isn't that what eudaimonia is?
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Dec 8, 2019 15:31
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thespaceinvader posted:Jo Swinson? No, the Boris doll  https://twitter.com/AyoCaesar/status/1202638447992807425 And this is who will replace Jo in future debates:  You can trust me, I'm the spokesperson for the Lib Dems. Also I'm cute and fluffy 
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Dec 8, 2019 15:32
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serious gaylord posted:Is there a word for the amount of glee i would feel for Swinson losing her seat? I believe the Germans call it Eichhörnchensicherheitsfreude
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Dec 8, 2019 15:39
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^^^ [e]:  OwlFancier posted:Isn't that what eudaimonia is? 
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Dec 8, 2019 15:41
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Josef bugman posted:How long before the Guardian (the observer  goddamnedtwisto posted:Thurrock - 300-vote lead for the Tories in 2017 in what's probably the most-Leave constituency in the south-east, and one where the Labour leaver>UKIP>Tory pipeline has been in full effect. a big swing in either direction here will give a pretty good sign of what way the election's going.
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Dec 8, 2019 15:41
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) goes full right wing and says that Labour must be stopped before they let poor people into our houses.
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Should I be worried that the lib dems are collapsing too much and won't be able to win any CON/LIB marginals?
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Dec 8, 2019 15:43
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Nettle Soup posted:My friend is worrying about a Labour government, because the house she'll inherit when her parents die is worth over 450k. Her parents are both voting Tory because of the marriage tax allowance thing, inheritance tax and because "We don't like corbyn" Way, way behind in this thread, and I know she's possibly voting Labour, but in these situations what happens if one/both of the parents need residential care when they are older? They won't get it for free with a house worth almost half a million. How much will the child/ren inherit once the house is sold and social care fees have been paid? Junkenstein posted:What are some good examples of parts of the NHS that have already been privatised, to counter the 'if tories wanted to sell the NHS they would have done it by now' bullshit? Hingchingbrooke Hospital is a good go-to example of how privatisation screws over *everyone*. It's a general hospital with A&E in Cambridgeshire. In 2010 Circle Health took on a 10-year contract to run it. Within 4 years staff turnover was up, the financial deficit was so large the Health Secretary had to get involved, the CQC's health inspection rated it as 'inadequate', and it was ranked as the second least-efficient hospital in England. In 2015 Circle handed the hospital back to the NHS five years earlier than agreed, because it was 'no longer viable'. In 2016 the hospital was rated 'good' and taken out of special measures. Debbie Does Dagon posted:So I'm taking to someone who just tried to use Corbyn scrapping the married tax allowance as a gotcha, because it'll affect lower income couples. Any advice on what to reply with? At the maximium, it's equivalent to 68p per day. Labour's increase in the minimum wage, additional free childcare and free internet will more than offset that. You can claim Marriage Allowance in a civil partnership please stop telling people you can't and that's why it's being scrapped. Pochoclo posted:PS What's a good charity to donate to that helps the homeless and doesn't have some monstrous dark secret? It's not quite what you're after, but Citizen's Advice and Supprt Through Court will give people facing eviction and other housing legal problems free help and advice, since people can't get legal aid for those types of cases. These charities undoubtedly prevent people from being made homeless in the first place.
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Dec 8, 2019 15:43
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Angepain posted:I'm currently putting together my personal list of constituencies to keep an eye on during the results, if anyone has any suggestions for constituencies that are interesting or generally might be gained or lost by a thread favourite/enemy/meme let me know. here's my list so far, which may be skewed toward my own narrow interests: The seat to watch in Northern Ireland is definately Belfast North where DUP leader in the commons Nigel Dodds is fighting for his life against Sinn Fein's John Finucane after the SDLP withdrew from the running there (combined SF + SDLP votes here in the last election where within 23 votes of Dodds total). Also likely to see the DUP lose Belfast South and Belfast East remains Alliances best bet to pick up a seat, even though they where 20% behind at the last election the only polling we've got has suggested a surge in support that could flip it to them. Cumulitively that would see the DUP driven out of Belfast where they have steadily held at least one seat since 1979
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Dec 8, 2019 15:46
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kustomkarkommando posted:The seat to watch in Northern Ireland is definately Belfast North where DUP leader in the commons Nigel Dodds is fighting for his life against Sinn Fein's John Finucane after the SDLP withdrew from the running there (combined SF + SDLP votes here in the last election where within 23 votes of Dodds total) I changed my constituency to North Belfast a few days before the cut off specifically for this reason. Still haven't got my card or even an email to say that it's gone through.
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Dec 8, 2019 15:50
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u brexit ukip it posted:Should I be worried that the lib dems are collapsing too much and won't be able to win any CON/LIB marginals? No, because Lib Dems are Tories. A Lib Dem collapse is good, because it means more votes to both Labour and Tories, but votes from Lib to Tory are basically Tory to Tory. So Lib collapse is a net positive to Labour. Quick maths
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Dec 8, 2019 15:53
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joedevola posted:I changed my constituency to North Belfast a few days before the cut off specifically for this reason. Still haven't got my card or even an email to say that it's gone through. Did you do it online or the old way? I was talking to someone who switched to Belfast South whos being grilled for utility bills and other info as a late registration, I think cause he moved between elections and the previous occupant was registered. Might be worth your while going down to the Electoral Office on Church Street to get a straight answer.
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Dec 8, 2019 15:53
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Boing posted:No, because Lib Dems are Tories. A Lib Dem collapse is good, because it means more votes to both Labour and Tories, but votes from Lib to Tory are basically Tory to Tory. So Lib collapse is a net positive to Labour. Quick maths I think in this specific instance a tory>lib seat shift would be very good for labour, though. Because we have a chance to break the tory momentum if they don't get a majority.
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Dec 8, 2019 15:55
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Braggart posted:By the Skinnerv 'is teef. Denniz Skinnerv is da biggest un! WAAAAGH! Question - what is the best way to respond to trolls on Facebook. I've seen a few posting the usual "Corbyn is going to make us eat our pets like Venezuela  " poo poo in one of the groups I'm a member of. For professional reasons I keep my social media interactions non-existent so I am suppressing a strong urge to start a flamewar. I tried looking them up to see if I could report them to our professional regulator, but they're non-existent so these are fake names or professional trolls. Am I stuck to reporting them to Facebook and the group admins? If I report to Facebook is there any combination of options that is most likely to get them banned?
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Dec 8, 2019 15:57
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https://twitter.com/tristandross/status/1203669342300364801?s=12
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Dec 8, 2019 15:58
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Is that... real?
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Dec 8, 2019 16:00
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Neil Cicierega???
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Dec 8, 2019 16:01
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Incredible, I'm dying laughing here. The commenter who compared it to the ultimate expression of Tim and Eric's aesthetic is spot on I N C R E D I B L E
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Dec 8, 2019 16:02
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video production is my passion
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Dec 8, 2019 16:06
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She made that herself with two VHS decks didn't she?
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Dec 8, 2019 16:07
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I feel like an emoji of a slowly expanding "INCREDIBLE" could get a lot of use here every time LD or CUK-TINGE gently caress it
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Dec 8, 2019 16:07
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Z the IVth posted:Denniz Skinnerv is da biggest un! WAAAAGH! get your own fake account and start spamming goatse
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Dec 8, 2019 16:11
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kustomkarkommando posted:Did you do it online or the old way? I was talking to someone who switched to Belfast South whos being grilled for utility bills and other info as a late registration, I think cause he moved between elections and the previous occupant was registered. Did it online. I'll head into town tomorrow with my lease and see if I can get it sorted. Imagine getting the DUP out of North Belfast. All 50,000 raggedy rear end union jacks will be flying at half mast.
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Dec 8, 2019 16:17
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Z the IVth posted:Denniz Skinnerv is da biggest un! WAAAAGH! Not defending their posts, but just because someone's name on FB is not findable elsewhere doesn't mean anything. I know a number of people (including myself) who do NOT use their 'professional' name on FB. Me because my name is quite rare and there are only about 2 of us in the UK so if you google my name, it's quite likely to be my stuff that comes up. Others because they are teachers, work with offenders, residential psychiatric patients or whatever. (As one got beaten up by a former patient almost 15 years after last caring for that patient, very understandable). I think all you can do is report to admin and FB. If you report to admin and get nowhere, then if you report to FB enough times the group gets deleted by FB (is that an outcome you would welcome?). If they're actually threatening physical injury then you can report to police.
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Dec 8, 2019 16:20
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So I’m at my Niece’s birthday and my family is putting up Dawn Butler’s interview and making fun of labour. Half are voting Tories and the other half are Lib Dem. God help me.
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Dec 8, 2019 16:27
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jimmydalad posted:So I’m at my Niece’s birthday and my family is putting up Dawn Butler’s interview and making fun of labour. Half are voting Tories and the other half are Lib Dem. God help me. gas leak imo. go play outside with the kids
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Dec 8, 2019 16:28
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