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Failed Imagineer
Sep 22, 2018

This could be the "CRUSH THE SABOTEURS" of our time, let's make this happen you slags

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Vlex
Aug 4, 2006
I'd rather be a climbing ape than a big titty angel.



Theoretically, a thousand sampled voters is plenty to approximate a result. But that presumes your sampling strategy isn't flawed and that your weightings reflect reality.

Marmaduke!
May 19, 2009

Why would it do that!?

yaffle posted:

Giant red Corbyn erupting from the earth under westminster to nationalise godzilla.

I like that this is basically what the BBC did back in 2018 (without the Russian style hat), back then they acted like it was just coincidence, but they the media does it today they just go "Yeah we're saying he's a giant commie traitor, and there's nothing anyone's going to do about it".

mehall
Aug 27, 2010


To add to what everyone else has said, a poll of 1000 is roughly a 3% margin of error for the population of the UK.
(It's about 4% for the US IIRC)

Beyond that is diminishing returns, you don't get much more usable data (assuming your sample is representative in the ways you need it to be) without going for a MUCH larger sample.

Jose
Jul 24, 2007

Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer
He's getting sacked

https://twitter.com/poetinpyjama/status/1203697907943251968?s=19

Jose
Jul 24, 2007

Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer
Boris going full racist

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1203922486968147969?s=19

mehall
Aug 27, 2010


https://twitter.com/FrankSobotka14/status/1203948816153616384?s=19

Jose
Jul 24, 2007

Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer
They're all centrists smh

https://twitter.com/TNiskakangas/status/1203729511658995713?s=19

Braggart
Nov 10, 2011

always thank the rock hider

"Now now, ethnics to the back please. Know your place."

Braggart
Nov 10, 2011

always thank the rock hider

The gynocracy is here :unsmigghh:

RockyB
Mar 8, 2007


Dog Therapy: Shockingly Good
Monday morning motivation. gently caress centerists.

quote:

This general election is unique in ways that transcend Brexit. Over the decades that I have been observing British politics, never before have I witnessed a consensus so widespread and powerful regarding the country’s urgent needs and priorities. And never before has the Labour Party presented a manifesto, buttressed by the leadership’s will to implement it, that promises real change in accordance with that consensus. And yet, despite this rare alignment, never before have the influencers that speak on behalf of Britain’s educated middle classes turned so viciously against a Labour Party that has done so much to address their own agenda.

Britain’s educated middle classes have, indeed, reached an impressive consensus. They worry about the climate emergency and accept the need for the state to act decisively in a world whose sustainability is jeopardised by Trump-like politicians and corporate-driven inertia. They concede that inequality has become obscene and is now hollowing out the social contract on which civilisation depends. They accept that the City of London remains a clear and present danger to the real economy, draining resources and perpetuating instability. They acknowledge that austerity is nothing more than a self-defeating fiscal policy masking a toxic class-war against the weaker citizens. They disdain Boris Johnson’s playful treatment of the facts and run scared of what a Tory Brexit will mean for their children’s access to European institutions, for the NHS, and for the UK’s capacity to resist the suffocating embrace of Trump’s US.

Meanwhile, the Labour manifesto will be remembered, irrespective of the electoral outcome, as a most worthy blueprint for tackling these concerns. From an economic perspective, it is a measured, bold, well-targeted and moderate financial response to the UK’s urgent needs and abundant capacities. For instance, the plan to establish a National Investment Bank, which can soak up excess liquidity from the financial system and create sustainable growth and high-quality, green jobs. Or the idea of ending the private oligopoly over broadband and transforming it into a public good that boosts the productivity of hitherto deprived citizens and small businesses. Or the proposal to finance the investment drive by asking those who benefited inordinately for decades to contribute more tax, effectively the social contract insurance premium they have been skimping on for so long.

From a social perspective, the Labour manifesto directly addresses that which the chattering classes have long demanded: providing better social care and more council houses, ending the heavy burden of debt for young people who dare enter university, and abolishing the zero-hour contracts that are a source of guilt even for the affluent.

From an environmental perspective, Labour’s manifesto includes the greenest, most radical plan offered by a major party anywhere in the world. Besides setting ambitious targets for reducing carbon emissions, it provides a means of financing the new institutions necessary for the green transition.

And then there is Brexit. What has been the chief demand of England’s political centre in recent years? To rule out a hard Brexit and to hold a second referendum that features Remain as an option. Once Johnson turned hard Brexit into an imminent reality – one still looming after the end of the mooted transition in December 2020 – Jeremy Corbyn did as he promised. He began campaigning for a second referendum that offers the good people of the UK two non-lethal options: a soft Brexit (with the UK remaining in the customs union and, mostly, the single market) or full EU membership.

And there’s the rub. While Labour’s manifesto is uniquely tailored to the concerns of Britain’s so-called middle ground, never before has that territory been more hostile to Labour. This is a phenomenon that will be remembered in decades to come as the great 2019 British paradox. Unpacking it holds the key to grasping Britain’s current predicament.

If you ask the commentariat for an explanation of this paradox, you will get an earful of chatter about Corbyn’s Marxism, alleged anti-Europeanism and lack of character. However, the truth is simpler and uglier than any of this. From day one, after he won Labour’s leadership in 2015, the game was afoot. Soon after Corbyn became leader, I warned that a huge campaign of character assassination was inevitable. It was not difficult to see it coming.

Social democratic parties, like Labour, were tolerated to the extent that they tinkered around the edges of a socio-economic order. But after the financial crash of 2008, Corbyn emerged and turned Labour into a threat to the privileged classes. While the liberal bourgeoisie are happy to romanticise the plight of the poor, and disparage social injustice, they are keener to write off as passé, or even dangerous, any sensible programme for ending inequality at an industrial scale.

In so doing, they erode liberalism’s claim, on which effective governance depends, to represent all citizens, as opposed to merely a few. But such is life in the conflicting mindset of a ruling class that has lost the capacity to reproduce sustainably its own regime.

What are we to make of a political class that proclaims its ethical commitments but that cannot bring itself to endorse the only concrete actions that would honour them? As John von Neumann, the great mathematician turned Cold War warrior, once said of J Robert Oppenheimer, the father of the atomic bomb, “some people profess the guilt to claim credit for the sin”. It is the duty of progressives uninterested in the reproduction of the current reality to give Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party the electoral victory it richly deserves.

Good old Yanis Varoufakis.

https://www.yanisvaroufakis.eu/2019/12/08/labours-manifesto-is-fit-for-purpose-so-why-are-the-middle-classes-so-hostile-to-it/

Guavanaut
Nov 27, 2009

Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998



Toilet Rascal

Pochoclo posted:

Do real people actually use those advent calendar things lol? Sounds so weird
We use the chocolates to attach to the sides of the giant orange that we worship as our god.

Bobby Deluxe posted:

My gran-in-law bought us big barrett advent calendars, and it's like russian roulette waiting for the blackjack to come up.
Blackjacks are good tho.

Beefeater1980 posted:

Knew him as a kid. Age 13-18 he was a hyper precocious hard leftie who used to do trips to every country with an anti-western authoritarian leader and send back postcards wildly praising the place. He came to hard right conservatism after Cambridge via a philosophy he called communitarianism, which as far as I could tell was basically looking at the disaffected working class and saying “what if they’re right about the problem being all these outsiders coming in and diluting our culture?”

He was sweet as a kid. I think he got broken somewhere along the way but not sure how exactly :(

Jose
Jul 24, 2007

Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer
Lol cool

https://twitter.com/axcomrade/status/1203749505021071360?s=09

kemikalkadet
Sep 16, 2012

:woof:

Bobby Deluxe posted:

My gran-in-law bought us big barrett advent calendars, and it's like russian roulette waiting for the blackjack to come up.

Sickos ruining christmas for everyone:
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/sick-celebrations-advent-calendar-accused-21010786

When I was young I remember having a really elaborate sort of origami house advent calendar. It was styled like a winter cottage and was 3-dimensional in its construction, you really had to poke around it to find the thing to open or move that day: things like opening the oven door or lifting the lid on a laundry basket to find a cat sleeping inside. I've not seen anything like it since, wish I knew who made it or where it came from.

Guavanaut
Nov 27, 2009

Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998



Toilet Rascal
Can we impeach Blair?

Impeach is the one that you do with the iron poles right?

Jose
Jul 24, 2007

Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer
https://twitter.com/Tom_Gann/status/1203823761721565184?s=19

Jose
Jul 24, 2007

Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer
https://twitter.com/sarahmanavis/status/1203771620181118983?s=19

Bobby Deluxe
May 9, 2004

OK, I am loving seething right now.

That friend I was talking to who works with people with disabilities? He has been turned yellow by the Lib Dems and Guardian shite.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/08/tactical-voting-guide-2019-keep-tories-out-remain-voter-general-election

quote:

40 Wantage

Ed Vaizey, ex-minister and critic of Johnson, is standing down in a seat with a growing Lib Dem challenge

VOTE LIB DEM
Article by Peter Kellner, disgraced former head of YouGov who failed to predict 2015.

I've posted why this isn't loving true at all in the last few pages. The 'growing challenge' is just over half the size of labour and growing at a tenth the speed. But he seems to have been swayed by that article and the last council elections, where we flipped to Lib Dem & NOC for South & the Vale.

What makes me angry enough to be awake before 11am is that he's a very intelligent guy (probably moreso than me in most areas), and he's still been swayed by the Libs plastering dodgy bar charts everywhere. Christ knows what the rest of town is thinking. I'm not angry at him, I'm angry at the loving Libs.

I'm currently battling for his soul on WhatsApp. Gibbo where are you when I need you most :negative:

Braggart
Nov 10, 2011

always thank the rock hider

"I… I had a miscarriage."

"Actually, no you didn't. I had the child removed and sent to a random family somewhere. I wasn't told who or where, so that I have maximum deniability. No, you won't be told either. You'll be given Universal Credit for your trouble, assuming you're not found fit for work."



I'm actually a little shocked by how grim what I've just written is. I guess I just hate Boris that much.

goddamnedtwisto
Dec 31, 2004

If you ask me about the mole people in the London Underground, I WILL be forced to kill you
Fun Shoe

justcola
May 22, 2004

La-Li-Lu-Le-Lo

Bobby Deluxe posted:


What makes me angry enough to be awake before 11am is that he's a very intelligent guy (probably moreso than me in most areas), and he's still been swayed by the Libs plastering dodgy bar charts everywhere. Christ knows what the rest of town is thinking. I'm not angry at him, I'm angry at the loving Libs.

I'm currently battling for his soul on WhatsApp. Gibbo where are you when I need you most :negative:

Tactical voting is one of the dumbest concepts - I can't imagine people throughout history have fought for the right to tactically vote for a party they don't really want but think might win because their neighbour might be thinking the same thing. Prisoner's Dilemma for centrist dads.


e: Tories don't vote tactically so why should the left

justcola fucked around with this message at 10:18 on Dec 9, 2019

biglads
Feb 21, 2007

I could've gone to Blatherwycke



im permabanned poster tacticalvoter58. i first started reading the guardian when i was about 12. by 14 i got really obsessed with the concept of “centrism” and tried to channel it constantly, until my thought process got really bizarre and i would repeat things like “skills wallets” and “chuka has some interesting points” in my head for hours, and i would get really paranoid, start seeing things in the corners of my eyes etc, basically prodromal schizophrenia. im now on antipsychotics. i always wondered what the kind of “centrism” style of guardian journalists was all about; i think it’s the unconscious leaking in to the conscious, what jungian theory considered to be the cause of schizophrenic and schizotypal syptoms. i would advise all people who “get” the guardian to be careful because that likely means you have a predisposition to a mental illness. peace.

Sanford
Jun 30, 2007

...and rarely post!


Sorry to distract from election chat, need some advice. We’ve had a request from the local college for a guy with autism and severe anxiety to visit us, mainly because our office is within spitting distance of the campus building he attends. I’ve volunteered to take care of things because I happened to see the ‘agenda’ and the only thing on it was “walk round and meet everyone” so I thought I better step in, but it’s really not an area I have any expertise in. I know there’s lots of people in here with experience with this kind of thing so just looking for any general advice. He’s expressed an interest in learning how software is made, seeing how computers work and can be repaired, and learning how people work together in a team. On my agenda I’ve got:

• Meet the scrum master and talk through the different stages of development from “I’ve got a great idea” to “this is now available to the user” with the different team functions laid out.
• Meet our head of infrastructure, get the side off a couple of PCs, point out the main bits and have a go at replacing some pieces. I’ve got a unit that needs the motherboard swapping so he can do that, and take the unit from not working to working by himself.
• Meet the head of our support team to talk about the problems his team has to fix, and how different people in the team complete different roles.

I’m briefed to run through these things personally if he doesn’t want to meet any more new people, and I spent yesterday typing up as much as I could with diagrams etc so if he wants to do the whole thing without talking to anyone at all that is also on the cards. My biggest concern is that apparently when he’s stressed he goes totally non-verbal and I don’t know how to deal with that. I’ve already asked that if people see us walking round the office, please don’t come and introduce yourselves.

Does anyone have any advice or feedback?

ThomasPaine
Feb 4, 2009

We have no compassion and we ask no compassion from you. When our turn comes, we shall not make excuses for the terror.
That survation poll has really thrown me lads and I'm dangerously close to despair. Someone please provide a reassuring counterpoint...

Pesmerga
Aug 1, 2005

So nice to eat you

ThomasPaine posted:

That survation poll has really thrown me lads and I'm dangerously close to despair. Someone please provide a reassuring counterpoint...

Hi me three weeks ago. We’ve been absolutely hosed by the media. A nice counterpoint may be that continuing to build local links, seek change beyond the ballot box, have a new Labour leader without some of the baggage (although lol at the media not finding something) and a bunch of olds dying off may mean actually having a chance in a few years. Brexit has become the culture war of the U.K. and my time canvassing has been depressing as hell, with exactly the results I was worrying about at the beginning of this year. I’ve given up for now and am investing my time with raising money and doing rounds of collections for local food banks instead.

quidditch it and quit it
Oct 11, 2012


Sanford posted:

Sorry to distract from election chat, need some advice. We’ve had a request from the local college for a guy with autism and severe anxiety to visit us, mainly because our office is within spitting distance of the campus building he attends. I’ve volunteered to take care of things because I happened to see the ‘agenda’ and the only thing on it was “walk round and meet everyone” so I thought I better step in, but it’s really not an area I have any expertise in. I know there’s lots of people in here with experience with this kind of thing so just looking for any general advice. He’s expressed an interest in learning how software is made, seeing how computers work and can be repaired, and learning how people work together in a team. On my agenda I’ve got:

• Meet the scrum master and talk through the different stages of development from “I’ve got a great idea” to “this is now available to the user” with the different team functions laid out.
• Meet our head of infrastructure, get the side off a couple of PCs, point out the main bits and have a go at replacing some pieces. I’ve got a unit that needs the motherboard swapping so he can do that, and take the unit from not working to working by himself.
• Meet the head of our support team to talk about the problems his team has to fix, and how different people in the team complete different roles.

I’m briefed to run through these things personally if he doesn’t want to meet any more new people, and I spent yesterday typing up as much as I could with diagrams etc so if he wants to do the whole thing without talking to anyone at all that is also on the cards. My biggest concern is that apparently when he’s stressed he goes totally non-verbal and I don’t know how to deal with that. I’ve already asked that if people see us walking round the office, please don’t come and introduce yourselves.

Does anyone have any advice or feedback?

On first look, I’m not sure I’d task them with replacing a motherboard, it may be that due to the anxiety the expectation of completing a task might be too much, and it could backfire, even if they knows what they’re doing.

I’d maybe phrase it like “have a poke around in there”, gauge their existing knowledge from that, and then casually drop “oh you could change the mobo if you like, that’d save me a job” if they’re not showing any anxious signs after a bit of time (which, not knowing them, will be harder to pick up quickly enough).

(After re-reading your post I’m pretty sure that’s what you’ve already got in mind actually)

RockyB
Mar 8, 2007


Dog Therapy: Shockingly Good

ThomasPaine posted:

That survation poll has really thrown me lads and I'm dangerously close to despair. Someone please provide a reassuring counterpoint...

https://twitter.com/hazelhurst/status/1203404788307824640

Threep
Apr 1, 2006

It's kind of a long story.

Sanford posted:

Sorry to distract from election chat, need some advice. We’ve had a request from the local college for a guy with autism and severe anxiety to visit us, mainly because our office is within spitting distance of the campus building he attends. I’ve volunteered to take care of things because I happened to see the ‘agenda’ and the only thing on it was “walk round and meet everyone” so I thought I better step in, but it’s really not an area I have any expertise in. I know there’s lots of people in here with experience with this kind of thing so just looking for any general advice. He’s expressed an interest in learning how software is made, seeing how computers work and can be repaired, and learning how people work together in a team. On my agenda I’ve got:

• Meet the scrum master and talk through the different stages of development from “I’ve got a great idea” to “this is now available to the user” with the different team functions laid out.
• Meet our head of infrastructure, get the side off a couple of PCs, point out the main bits and have a go at replacing some pieces. I’ve got a unit that needs the motherboard swapping so he can do that, and take the unit from not working to working by himself.
• Meet the head of our support team to talk about the problems his team has to fix, and how different people in the team complete different roles.

I’m briefed to run through these things personally if he doesn’t want to meet any more new people, and I spent yesterday typing up as much as I could with diagrams etc so if he wants to do the whole thing without talking to anyone at all that is also on the cards. My biggest concern is that apparently when he’s stressed he goes totally non-verbal and I don’t know how to deal with that. I’ve already asked that if people see us walking round the office, please don’t come and introduce yourselves.

Does anyone have any advice or feedback?
From personal experience, the biggest source of stress in a situation like that is trying to figure out social expectations, which will happen even if he's not expected to.

  • Try to avoid open questions in favor of multiple choice, especially when it comes to asking him to make decisions
  • Avoid long silences and anything similar where he would feel like he's expected to say something unprompted
  • If he starts infodumping just kind of let it happen and show you're paying attention, it's like purring for cats, it's a stress release

Jose
Jul 24, 2007

Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer
https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/1203971255218712576?s=19

Necrothatcher
Mar 26, 2005




Pesmerga posted:

Hi me three weeks ago. We’ve been absolutely hosed by the media. A nice counterpoint may be that continuing to build local links, seek change beyond the ballot box, have a new Labour leader without some of the baggage (although lol at the media not finding something) and a bunch of olds dying off may mean actually having a chance in a few years. Brexit has become the culture war of the U.K. and my time canvassing has been depressing as hell, with exactly the results I was worrying about at the beginning of this year. I’ve given up for now and am investing my time with raising money and doing rounds of collections for local food banks instead.

I think that's the exact opposite of what ThomasPaine wanted.

e: It's not exactly a major data point, but I had a very promising weekend in Uxbridge talking to voters. They warned us we were going into a heavily Tory neighbourhood, but found support for Boris there was pretty drat low (even the Tories are only grudgingly voting for him). By the end of five boards we had a whole bunch of 'L's in our boxes next to previously undecided and LD voters. Plus I had a cup of tea with this old Jewish lady who is one generation removed from the holocaust and managed to reassure her that the anti-semitism thing is largely a media invention - which was easy when I realised out she'd marched with Corbyn against the Nazis in Wood Green in the 1970s.

Necrothatcher fucked around with this message at 10:49 on Dec 9, 2019

Jose
Jul 24, 2007

Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer

ThomasPaine posted:

That survation poll has really thrown me lads and I'm dangerously close to despair. Someone please provide a reassuring counterpoint...

This whole twitter thread

https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1203719522693369857?s=19

ThomasPaine
Feb 4, 2009

We have no compassion and we ask no compassion from you. When our turn comes, we shall not make excuses for the terror.

Necrothatcher posted:

I think that's the exact opposite of what ThomasPaine wanted.

:suicide:

E:

????? I'm trying to parse this and I think it says 'the editor of the new statesman is more working class than a left wing student because he has a job' and if so I just can't lol ?????
https://twitter.com/francesweetman/status/1203971576015835136?s=19

ThomasPaine fucked around with this message at 10:48 on Dec 9, 2019

Incy
May 30, 2006
for other Out

Necrothatcher posted:

I think that's the exact opposite of what ThomasPaine wanted.

This is Pesmerga's posting gimmick and they've been doing it for a few years now.

Pesmerga
Aug 1, 2005

So nice to eat you

Necrothatcher posted:

I think that's the exact opposite of what he wanted.

I’m finding something optimism and to get me out of hope at the ballot box, so I’m channeling my effort into something that will at least provide some help to those that need it. At this point I think despair at the state of British politics is almost necessary, because it reinforces how badly the forces of capital are aligned against us, and why we need to look for other solutions than worrying about the next election. Because even if we get a larger number of seats than the Conservatives, this environment isn’t going to just disappear.

Meanwhile, Boris is banging the ‘how dare EU citizens treat the U.K. as part of their own country’ drum, and the hostile environment is about to get a hell of a lot more hostile. My wife was shouted at in the street again last week for daring to speak to our daughter in Portuguese. I’ve seen someone who has always been outgoing and extroverted becoming nervous and introverted in public because she’s worried that people will hear her accent and attack her for it. Our media has created this environment, and until it changes, the UK is going to be absolutely toxic.

Olpainless
Jun 30, 2003
... Insert something brilliantly witty here.
That survation poll is also showing some craziness in London that, to be honest, doesn't seem likely.

https://twitter.com/jpfiott/status/1203907444570759168

Bobby Deluxe
May 9, 2004

One thing that can remove a lot of anxiety is to make a cooldown space available. This is somewhere he can go, be alone, put headphones on and let the stress seep out if it gets too much.


On the news of centrist friend, he is very much in the 'Tories are absolute hell and I want to vote left' camp, but thinks the Libs are the best tactical option. I hope I've left him with enough ammo to sway it - that the Libs risk a tory coalition, the polls are against them here, Labour's nuanced brexit position, copy/pasting from the manifesto etc.

Unfortunately I think he's too far gone into centrist melt territory where regardless of the right or wrong of it, he sees that corbyn seems unpopular and the Libs seem to be the best tactical option. He's also claiming that Lab are stepping aside here for the Libs, which is probably untrue but in effect feels about right.

I'm pretty sure this constituency is going to go from a potential con/labour marginal to a con / lib dem marginal.

Jippa
Feb 13, 2009
https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1203924185216626689

Necrothatcher
Mar 26, 2005




Bobby Deluxe posted:

One thing that can remove a lot of anxiety is to make a cooldown space available. This is somewhere he can go, be alone, put headphones on and let the stress seep out if it gets too much.


On the news of centrist friend, he is very much in the 'Tories are absolute hell and I want to vote left' camp, but thinks the Libs are the best tactical option. I hope I've left him with enough ammo to sway it - that the Libs risk a tory coalition, the polls are against them here, Labour's nuanced brexit position, copy/pasting from the manifesto etc.

Unfortunately I think he's too far gone into centrist melt territory where regardless of the right or wrong of it, he sees that corbyn seems unpopular and the Libs seem to be the best tactical option. He's also claiming that Lab are stepping aside here for the Libs, which is probably untrue but in effect feels about right.

I'm pretty sure this constituency is going to go from a potential con/labour marginal to a con / lib dem marginal.

Which constituency?

Jose
Jul 24, 2007

Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer

ThomasPaine posted:

That survation poll has really thrown me lads and I'm dangerously close to despair. Someone please provide a reassuring counterpoint...

https://twitter.com/HichamYezza/status/1203975511153823745?s=19

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ADBOT LOVES YOU

Braggart
Nov 10, 2011

always thank the rock hider

ThomasPaine posted:

That survation poll has really thrown me lads and I'm dangerously close to despair. Someone please provide a reassuring counterpoint...

Look how shook The Sun is:



Also I don't think actively eating brainworms is going to help your mental state. Maybe take a Weetman break until after the election ;)

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