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Phanatic
Mar 13, 2007

Please don't forget that I am an extremely racist idiot who also has terrible opinions about the Culture series.
https://twitter.com/simonsarris/status/1189229024951881728

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Apparatchik Magnet
Sep 25, 2019

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
https://twitter.com/mowermanjimmy/status/1202917012932042752

angryrobots
Mar 31, 2005


Well that's real depressing

Apparatchik Magnet
Sep 25, 2019

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
https://twitter.com/mackaymiller/status/1205501040331829254

Orvin
Sep 9, 2006




What does that mean in regular person terms?

golden bubble
Jun 3, 2011

yospos

Investors believed that Ur-Socialist Corbyn would have nationalized British energy utilities in the process of reversing Thatcherism. But then latest election results came in, and Labour lost hard. Hard enough that Corbyn practically has to resign from Labour leadership. And in response, the stock prices of these utilities immediately went up by ~7%. Thus, investors believe that removing the risk of Corbyn nationalization is worth ~7% of a stocks price.

Harold Fjord
Jan 3, 2004
That seems... low?

Kaal
May 22, 2002

through thousands of posts in D&D over a decade, I now believe I know what I'm talking about. if I post forcefully and confidently, I can convince others that is true. no one sees through my facade.
That's because the actual chance of Labour both winning the election and then managing to implement immediate guillotine socialism was very low and therefore largely baked into the stock price.

VideoGameVet
May 14, 2005

It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion. It is by the juice of Java that pedaling acquires speed, the teeth acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion.

StabbinHobo posted:

I don't want to defend the guy because whatever point he may have been trying to make he clearly failed.

But on the topic, there is an argument to be made that building greater nuclear capacity, the way it could actually be done in reality today not your fantasy jerk off blog post version, would move both the electric grid and energy use in general in the "centralized" direction on a centralization/de-centralization axis.

Meaning, if your typical D&D Grover-Tier-Electrical-Engineer got their way we'd immediately start building 2 - 4 reactor AP1000 (1600 really) plants, or something very similar. Pretty much the same thing China is doing. For rough numbers lets say a 3.3GW plant with a 90% capacity factor at $155/MWH LCOE, for "3GW".

Whereas if you got that 3GW the other way it would look something like:
- 10 x 300MW offshore wind farms with a 45% capacity factor
- 10 x 200MW onshore wind farms with a 45% capacity factor
- 10 x 200MW solar farms with a 29% capacity factor
- 50 x 10MW l-io battery banks

Roughly speaking, according to that Lazard report and EIA numbers, those two scenarios would cost about he same amount of money and produce the same amount of power reliably. However one involves siting a single nuclear plant, the other involves siting 30 wind and solar farms. So its a very stark difference in terms of "do you think the grid (or energy, or society) should be *more* centralized or less?"

What’s the comparison for construction/deployment time on these two scenarios?

VideoGameVet
May 14, 2005

It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion. It is by the juice of Java that pedaling acquires speed, the teeth acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion.
I recently visited the Cook Islands and heard from locals that they were going 100% renewables by the end of 2020:

https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/2016/01/18/cook-islands-on-target-to-be-100-percent-renewable/#gref

I spotted a Tesla Battery array at Rarotonga airport, and saw a few EV’s there and on Aitutaki.

When you’re paying $13,000 for one shipping container and diesel is selling for $10/gal (or so) that makes sense.

Also both islands are small (I biked around Aitutaki, 18 miles total), so low range EV’s will work. We had a 3 hour tour on Raro in an electric Tuk-Tuk.

Bob Ross Nuke Test
Jul 12, 2016

by Games Forum
Wouldn't EV submersibles be more appropriate for those locations given current trends?

StabbinHobo
Oct 18, 2002

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

VideoGameVet posted:

What’s the comparison for construction/deployment time on these two scenarios?

thats kindof impossible to answer, its like a divide by zero error. there is not currently proven capacity of a private company to build a working commercial nuclear reactor in the united states. two are in progress, over budget and over deadline of course.

conversely that's roughly the amount of wind that was installed in the us in 2018. I can't find good numbers for 2019, but if the curve and the projections from old articles are to be believed it should be double-ish.

solar, that's about the amount that was installed in the us in 2019 (bit less).

for batteries that volume hasn't been sold for grid use, probably only a tenth or so, but it is being manufactured now (for cars).

essentially you have three things that are already proven, existing, working, happening, and winding their way down their cost curves vs one thing that is currently 0 for 31: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_renaissance_in_the_United_States

the only way nuclear could possibly work is if the government does it, not the commercial sector. the only candidate that would even remotely consider such a government nationalization/de-privatization/sector-takeover is effectively anti-nuclear.

there are no chess moves on the board that make nuclear work. it exists only in "tech blog guy" fantasies.

unless you know of a pro-nuclear far-leftist (yang isnt even remotely close) that can get elected president by 2020 that i'm not aware of. hell i'll even give you 2024.

StabbinHobo fucked around with this message at 05:41 on Dec 14, 2019

VideoGameVet
May 14, 2005

It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion. It is by the juice of Java that pedaling acquires speed, the teeth acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion.

THE BEATWEAVER posted:

Wouldn't EV submersibles be more appropriate for those locations given current trends?

Sadly, yeah.

Apparatchik Magnet
Sep 25, 2019

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/16/climate/methane-leak-satellite.html

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Don't worry, these Natural Gas producers will self-regulate!

Dante80
Mar 23, 2015

Question. Can anyone explain why most governments and people are putting almost all their funding in a specific tokamak design for fusion research? Is that the only way the tech can work?

StabbinHobo
Oct 18, 2002

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
there is so little funding and the problem is so hard to solve that they all had to pool their money and pick one plan A

Kaal
May 22, 2002

through thousands of posts in D&D over a decade, I now believe I know what I'm talking about. if I post forcefully and confidently, I can convince others that is true. no one sees through my facade.

Dante80 posted:

Question. Can anyone explain why most governments and people are putting almost all their funding in a specific tokamak design for fusion research? Is that the only way the tech can work?

In a very brief summary, Tokamak reactor designs are considered more reliably guaranteed than competing designs, because the problems with it are considered solvable and are largely within developed fields like materials science - rather than esoteric ones like experimental physics. A Tokamak reactor can hypothetically be built given enough time and research. Some of the other designs are less certain.

Dante80
Mar 23, 2015

So this is like a "best shot - most feasable" scenario. Another question, why do they need 10 years between first plasma and actually starting to test D-T? I'm trying to read more on the matter but my poor comprehension skills fail me.

Phanatic
Mar 13, 2007

Please don't forget that I am an extremely racist idiot who also has terrible opinions about the Culture series.

Dante80 posted:

Question. Can anyone explain why most governments and people are putting almost all their funding in a specific tokamak design for fusion research? Is that the only way the tech can work?

Scientific consensus that that's the approach most likely to pay off.

(Narrator: It wouldn't.)

Tunicate
May 15, 2012

General fusion just got $65 million for their fusion research

https://generalfusion.com/2019/12/general-fusion-closes-65m-of-series-e-financing/

IIRC their strategy involves using steam-driven pistons to go full jojo on a spinning vortex of molten lead

net work error
Feb 26, 2011

Sharing here as well since some posters here may have an interest in some DIY battery goodness:
https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3907260

suck my woke dick
Oct 10, 2012

:siren:I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!:siren:

Put this cum-loving slave on ignore immediately!

StabbinHobo posted:

thats kindof impossible to answer, its like a divide by zero error. there is not currently proven capacity of a private company to build a working commercial nuclear reactor in the united states. two are in progress, over budget and over deadline of course.

conversely that's roughly the amount of wind that was installed in the us in 2018. I can't find good numbers for 2019, but if the curve and the projections from old articles are to be believed it should be double-ish.

solar, that's about the amount that was installed in the us in 2019 (bit less).

for batteries that volume hasn't been sold for grid use, probably only a tenth or so, but it is being manufactured now (for cars).

essentially you have three things that are already proven, existing, working, happening, and winding their way down their cost curves vs one thing that is currently 0 for 31: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_renaissance_in_the_United_States

the only way nuclear could possibly work is if the government does it, not the commercial sector. the only candidate that would even remotely consider such a government nationalization/de-privatization/sector-takeover is effectively anti-nuclear.

there are no chess moves on the board that make nuclear work. it exists only in "tech blog guy" fantasies.

unless you know of a pro-nuclear far-leftist (yang isnt even remotely close) that can get elected president by 2020 that i'm not aware of. hell i'll even give you 2024.

In the USA, where anything beyond coal getting replaced by gas, a few reactors getting license extensions, and a modest amount of renewables being built backed by some neoliberal Numbers Fuckstein tax rebate is not happening anyway.

In countries where the government isn't afraid to just invest in useful poo poo nuclear is being rolled out with much more reasonable time frames and prices.

suck my woke dick
Oct 10, 2012

:siren:I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!:siren:

Put this cum-loving slave on ignore immediately!
Also centralisation is cool yo, at least to the city/county level where the local community can have a municipal reactor and avoid grid wide single points of failure without having to juggle a million random generators on every loving rooftop.

StabbinHobo
Oct 18, 2002

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

suck my woke dick posted:

In countries where the government isn't afraid to just invest in useful poo poo nuclear is being rolled out with much more reasonable time frames and prices.
i'm not saying you're wrong, but it sure would be great if you had anything to back that up, because while the notion itself seems plausible, you in particular seem kindof... <see next bit>

suck my woke dick posted:

Also centralisation is cool yo, at least to the city/county level where the local community can have a municipal reactor and avoid grid wide single points of failure without having to juggle a million random generators on every loving rooftop.
did you think that comparison meant that 10 houses would have 200MW solar arrays?

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

StabbinHobo posted:

i'm not saying you're wrong, but it sure would be great if you had anything to back that up, because while the notion itself seems plausible, you in particular seem kindof... <see next bit>

did you think that comparison meant that 10 houses would have 200MW solar arrays?

China has 47 reactors under construction, and France just announced they are expanding their nuclear fleet, currently their fleet accounts for 85% of their generation capacity.

StabbinHobo
Oct 18, 2002

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
thanks wikipedia

the assertion that mattered there was "rolled out with much more reasonable time frames and prices"

how is china's plan going?

edit: doing my own reading, seems like the answer is "much better than in the US but still not good"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_China#Future_projects

StabbinHobo fucked around with this message at 17:26 on Dec 17, 2019

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

StabbinHobo posted:

thanks wikipedia

the assertion that mattered there was "rolled out with much more reasonable time frames and prices"

how is china's plan going?

edit: doing my own reading, seems like the answer is "much better than in the US but still not good"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_China#Future_projects

Pricing doesn't matter to the dead.

Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum

Dante80 posted:

So this is like a "best shot - most feasable" scenario. Another question, why do they need 10 years between first plasma and actually starting to test D-T? I'm trying to read more on the matter but my poor comprehension skills fail me.


Job security and a culture of extreme bureaucracy, mostly.

suck my woke dick
Oct 10, 2012

:siren:I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!:siren:

Put this cum-loving slave on ignore immediately!

StabbinHobo posted:

thanks wikipedia

the assertion that mattered there was "rolled out with much more reasonable time frames and prices"

how is china's plan going?

edit: doing my own reading, seems like the answer is "much better than in the US but still not good"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_China#Future_projects

Same in India. South Korea (notwithstanding dithering by the current administration) has been doing fairly well even on price, as is nuclear exporter #1 Russia.

"Better than the US but still not good" seems to be the best decarbonisation we're getting outside of special cases though, so I'll take it and just ask for the non nuclear capable parts of the construction workforce to plop down some renewables in addition while the next nuclear capable people get trained.

StabbinHobo posted:

did you think that comparison meant that 10 houses would have 200MW solar arrays?

No, but usually people talking about decentralisation are referring to individuals feeding in power from their piddly 3KW rooftop installation and helping to balance the grid with their basement full of batteries, not replacing 2x400MW coal generators with a cluster of 8x100MW solar farms.

StabbinHobo
Oct 18, 2002

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

suck my woke dick posted:

Same in India. South Korea (notwithstanding dithering by the current administration) has been doing fairly well even on price, as is nuclear exporter #1 Russia.
more claims you didn't even coherently assert, let alone back up. which is now extra suspect on account of your last ones turning out wrong.

quote:

No, but usually people talking about decentralisation are referring to individuals feeding in power from their piddly 3KW rooftop installation and helping to balance the grid with their basement full of batteries, not replacing 2x400MW coal generators with a cluster of 8x100MW solar farms.
oh cool so even though i was very detailed and specific in my post, that doesn't matter, because you're going to argue with some other phantom people in your head who "usually" say something neither I nor anyone else in the thread said.

suck my woke dick
Oct 10, 2012

:siren:I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!:siren:

Put this cum-loving slave on ignore immediately!

StabbinHobo posted:

more claims you didn't even coherently assert, let alone back up. which is now extra suspect on account of your last ones turning out wrong.
The Wikipedia bits on China are missing out on the latest tranche of reactor approvals, some starting work now (eg here, here, here).

The South Korea stuff is very well known and has been discussed several times itt (see eg here). The current government is nuclear skeptic (and largely got voted in due to the previous government having broken up amid scandals) but its attempt to put am anti nuclear policy in place has stalled out over public opinion actually becoming fairly positive on nuclear.

Russia has gotten the plurality to majority of nuclear power reactor exports in recent years by being more competitive than western nations with its VVER.


quote:

oh cool so even though i was very detailed and specific in my post, that doesn't matter, because you're going to argue with some other phantom people in your head who "usually" say something neither I nor anyone else in the thread said.
What you described wasn't meaningfully more decentralised than municipal SMRs with an occasional big reactor in between, unless you insist on not building anything of what you proposed adjacent to each other. So I just sort of assumed.

suck my woke dick fucked around with this message at 12:14 on Dec 19, 2019

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug
https://twitter.com/6point626/status/1207628789380984833?s=20

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?



This is bad but what is interesting is this - sort of - from one of the oil majors even it’s just a subsidiary. Paging MomJeans420, any idea what the hell went wrong?

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Tab8715 posted:

This is bad but what is interesting is this - sort of - from one of the oil majors even it’s just a subsidiary. Paging MomJeans420, any idea what the hell went wrong?

"We object to regulation" - Natural Gas and Petroleum industry.

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?


CommieGIR posted:

"We object to regulation" - Natural Gas and Petroleum industry.

And? Every single industry objects to any regulation all the time. Too freaking bad. I’d bet $20 this kind of accident could have been prevented but it’s Ohio.

I doubt the same thing would happen in California where they still frack it’s just called something entirely different and highly regulated.

If you want some real environmental horrors look at the drilling operations in Asia, Russia and the Middle East. They’re blissfully unaware they’re spewing methane or simply don’t care.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Tab8715 posted:

And? Every single industry objects to any regulation all the time. Too freaking bad. I’d bet $20 this kind of accident could have been prevented but it’s Ohio.

I doubt the same thing would happen in California where they still frack it’s just called something entirely different and highly regulated.

If you want some real environmental horrors look at the drilling operations in Asia, Russia and the Middle East. They’re blissfully unaware they’re spewing methane or simply don’t care.

Which is why arguing in support of expanding Natural Gas is a fools errand.

But here you are.

Apparatchik Magnet
Sep 25, 2019

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
LOL Germany.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-10-31/germany-s-nationalist-party-has-wind-industry-in-limbo

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?


CommieGIR posted:

Which is why arguing in support of expanding Natural Gas is a fools errand.

But here you are.

Without Natural Gas you are either straight up burning oil, coal or you have brownouts. All of these things are even more catastrophic.

In my opinion, the entire Oil and Gas Industry shouldn’t be regulated. It should be nationalized.

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CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Tab8715 posted:

Without Natural Gas you are either straight up burning oil, coal or you have brownouts. All of these things are even more catastrophic.

In my opinion, the entire Oil and Gas Industry shouldn’t be regulated. It should be nationalized.

What it should be is abandoned as rapidly as it can be replaced.

Methane Emissions are part of the problem, not a solution.

StabbinHobo posted:

people already answered but I like to use graphs/pictures whenever I can



the red part is coal and natural gas powering electric grids (mostly)

here's another good one



CH4 makes up 19% of atmospheric emissions. But effectively, its quadruple the greenhouse gas as CO2. Expanding Fracking and Drilling for more methane is not a viable option if we want to effectively address climate change. Period. End of story. No pragmatism here, your option is continue to make Greenhouse gas emissions climb through expanded drilling/methane leaks or address the global issue. Its not the middle. Not to mention what you are effectively adopting is a massive increase in drilling and fracking to meet the demand of coal. Which means more methane leaks, because these guys are never going to accept heavy regulation.

Natural Gas is 30 years too late to be an effective solution. You are longing for a time long since passed.

CommieGIR fucked around with this message at 19:59 on Dec 30, 2019

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