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karthun
Nov 16, 2006

I forgot to post my food for USPOL Thanksgiving but that's okay too!

Unimpressed posted:

Huh? Google brought up an attack on Camp bastion where two marines were killed, had several aircraft destroyed and captured or killed the entire attacking force. That's not what overrun means.

If you can penetrate the base to the point where you attach explosives to aircraft on the flight line and engage air maintenance crew in ground combat the base has been loving overrun.

:edit: and kill the commander of the aircraft maintenance squadron.

karthun fucked around with this message at 00:13 on Jan 4, 2020

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Relevant Tangent
Nov 18, 2016

Tangentially Relevant

Deteriorata posted:

I suspect having all US bases overrun by militias simultaneously should do it.

bullshit catastrophizing

Unimpressed
Feb 13, 2013

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:

the first one is why we will not be using the second

and also why we will not be using the third

quick math problem for you, unimpressed. what's the cost of an anti-missile interceptor vs. the cost of a Scud.

and how many scuds does it take to get to the rich, creamy, explosive center of an airbase.

Are you serious? You really think US aircraft carriers are threatened by Iran's missiles? Iran doesn't have enough missiles to overwhelm Israeli defences and I predict Hezbollah will choose Lebanon over Iran.

Also taking out airbases is extremely hard, because they don't have a creamy middle, not since Israel destroyed the Egyptian airforce on the ground in 67. Aircraft are protected in hardened shelters, along with fuel and ammunition, and runways are easily repairable. If Hezbollah joined in they could kill thousands of Israelis but that will just give Israel an excuse to bomb Lebanon.

Unimpressed
Feb 13, 2013

karthun posted:

If you can penetrate the base to the point where you attach explosives to aircraft on the flight line and engage air maintenance crew in ground combat the base has been loving overrun.

:edit: and kill the commander of the aircraft maintenance squadron.

No it hasn't. A base has been overrun if it's run over by the enemy who then proceeds to take possession of said base and capture or kill its occupants rather than being captured or killed by same occupants.

Unimpressed
Feb 13, 2013

Anyway I feel like I should take a break for a while. There's a lot of hysterical catastrophising here right now.

For the record, here's what I think:
1. The strike will not accomplish anything.
2. It will cause untold civilian death and destruction.
3. It will strengthen the Iranian regime and ultimately Iran's position in the middle east.
4. It will further destroy the last remnants of morality in the US armed forces.
5. It will embolden the worst of the world's leaders including Trump himself, Bibi, Erdogan, Putin and Khamenei to be even more outrageous and callous.
6. It will not lead to Iran destroying the US forces in the middle east or any of its allies.
7. It will not lead to mass strikes against the US mainland nor to World war 3.

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

Unimpressed posted:

Anyway I feel like I should take a break for a while. There's a lot of hysterical catastrophising here right now.

For the record, here's what I think:
1. The strike will not accomplish anything.
2. It will cause untold civilian death and destruction.
3. It will strengthen the Iranian regime and ultimately Iran's position in the middle east.
4. It will further destroy the last remnants of morality in the US armed forces.
5. It will embolden the worst of the world's leaders including Trump himself, Bibi, Erdogan, Putin and Khamenei to be even more outrageous and callous.
6. It will not lead to Iran destroying the US forces in the middle east or any of its allies.
7. It will not lead to mass strikes against the US mainland nor to World war 3.

these grover edits are getting obtuse

Rocko Bonaparte
Mar 12, 2002

Every day is Friday!
Is there anything I can read on the background of Suleimani being in Baghdad with Iraqi officials that were also killed in the attack? All I got here is that he just kind of happened to be there and these Iraqi officials just happened to also be in the convoy or something. I can't imagine that it was something really clear-cut like they were all just twirling their mustaches, cackling about how they're going to destroy America or something. I'm wondering if there was some diplomatic function or something else going on that the US also managed to poo poo all over.

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010

Rocko Bonaparte posted:

Is there anything I can read on the background of Suleimani being in Baghdad with Iraqi officials that were also killed in the attack? All I got here is that he just kind of happened to be there and these Iraqi officials just happened to also be in the convoy or something. I can't imagine that it was something really clear-cut like they were all just twirling their mustaches, cackling about how they're going to destroy America or something. I'm wondering if there was some diplomatic function or something else going on that the US also managed to poo poo all over.

my understanding was that suleimani was on an official state visit to iran's allies in iraq

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!!
May 31, 2006

Unimpressed posted:

Are you serious? You really think US aircraft carriers are threatened by Iran's missiles? Iran doesn't have enough missiles to overwhelm Israeli defences and I predict Hezbollah will choose Lebanon over Iran.

Also taking out airbases is extremely hard, because they don't have a creamy middle, not since Israel destroyed the Egyptian airforce on the ground in 67. Aircraft are protected in hardened shelters, along with fuel and ammunition, and runways are easily repairable. If Hezbollah joined in they could kill thousands of Israelis but that will just give Israel an excuse to bomb Lebanon.

do yourself a quick favor, and look up what the Millennium Challenge was

seriously, you'll laugh like hell

Lightning Knight
Feb 24, 2012

Pray for Answer

Unimpressed posted:

Are you serious? You really think US aircraft carriers are threatened by Iran's missiles? Iran doesn't have enough missiles to overwhelm Israeli defences and I predict Hezbollah will choose Lebanon over Iran.

I, too, have never heard of the Falkland War.

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!!
May 31, 2006
seriously "anti ship missiles will sink a ship, it does not matter how brown and inferior you think the people firing them are" has been established for forty years at this point

A big flaming stink
Apr 26, 2010
like, it's a literal fact of the matter that anti-ship weapons are decades ahead of anti-anti ship weapons

if someone well positioned wants to sink the aircraft carrier, it's going to happen

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
And sinking a surface ship has only gotten easier over that time period.

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
I forgot who pointed it out but puting WTC steel in an aircraft carrier was kind of symbolic about how even the navy feels about them, deep down. Like their only real defense is that sinking them would really piss us off.

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!!
May 31, 2006
come now, what are the odds that the browner peoples of the earth can figure out how to fire an Exocet

as the last two decades have taught us, it is impossible for an explosive to mar the perfect and imperishable face of the US or its allies.

by the way remember that one time an Israeli cruiser was loving around near Lebanon and then suddenly had a gaping hole in it for, you know. some reason?

probably a one-off, imo

eighty-four merc
Dec 22, 2010


In 2020, we're going to make the end of Fight Club real.

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:

come now, what are the odds that the browner peoples of the earth can figure out how to fire an Exocet

as the last two decades have taught us, it is impossible for an explosive to mar the perfect and imperishable face of the US or its allies.

by the way remember that one time an Israeli cruiser was loving around near Lebanon and then suddenly had a gaping hole in it for, you know. some reason?

probably a one-off, imo

Is that the INS Eilat, or have the Israelis gotten more big surface ships sunk trying to do big-dick naval poo poo?

Rip Testes
Jan 29, 2004

I never forget a face, but in your case I'll be glad to make an exception.
It's been nearly 30 YEARS since the Gulf War and the US is still dropping bombs on Iraq. Thirty loving years of this.

OctaMurk
Jun 21, 2013

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:

come now, what are the odds that the browner peoples of the earth can figure out how to fire an Exocet

as the last two decades have taught us, it is impossible for an explosive to mar the perfect and imperishable face of the US or its allies.

by the way remember that one time an Israeli cruiser was loving around near Lebanon and then suddenly had a gaping hole in it for, you know. some reason?

probably a one-off, imo

The israeli navy has patrol boats, not cruisers lmao. And the Falklands war happened before CIWS and point defense missiles were common on ships.

Anti ship missiles are obviously very dangerous to ships hence the name but bringing up lovely examples is not helpful.

AlexanderCA
Jul 21, 2010

by Cyrano4747

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:

do yourself a quick favor, and look up what the Millennium Challenge was

seriously, you'll laugh like hell

Anyone who quotes the millennium challenge as a source of knowledge on American performance is falling victim to a little bit of information being more dangerous than no information. The milhist thread iirc had a pretty good discussion on it at some point.

Basically, training exercises don't work like people think they do.

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!!
May 31, 2006

AlexanderCA posted:

Anyone who quotes the millennium challenge as a source of knowledge on American performance is falling victim to a little bit of information being more dangerous than no information. The milhist thread iirc had a pretty good discussion on it at some point.

Basically, training exercises don't work like people think they do.

yeah, if you go into it any further than that you go right back to getting scared again

it turns out point defenses need to reload. Van Ripper deciding to point out this flaw by saying "this speedboat carries a destroyer's tonnage of missiles and has fired them all at once," because he's a pissy little fucker even by Marine Corps standards, allows people to neatly sidestep the underlying problem

if you've got enough missiles it's not a question of if, it's a question of when.

and the estimates of how many missiles Iran has produced in the last twenty years make for some real interesting reading.

Squalid
Nov 4, 2008

pangstrom posted:

I forgot who pointed it out but puting WTC steel in an aircraft carrier was kind of symbolic about how even the navy feels about them, deep down. Like their only real defense is that sinking them would really piss us off.

the primary defense used by carriers against anti-ship missiles like exocet is just range. Exocet max range is 180 km. Guess where US carrier groups are in relation to Iran?


US carrier groups locations as of yesterday.


Iran can deny the US safe movement in and out of the Persian Gulf. They can't stop carriers from hovering just out of missile range in the Indian ocean.

Squalid fucked around with this message at 01:57 on Jan 4, 2020

AlexanderCA
Jul 21, 2010

by Cyrano4747
Also, 2 exocet missiles didn't manage to kill the 4000 tonne Stark. A American carrier is 100000 tonnes, 25 times more massive. They can be sunk for sure if damage is not contained, but it's hardly a certainty. The real killers to worry about are submarines IMO.

OhFunny
Jun 26, 2013

EXTREMELY PISSED AT THE DNC

Looks like the US is all in on this.

Fallen Hamprince
Nov 12, 2016



The War Nerd is deeply saddened by the death of General Soleimani. He was very good at killing people, which is, in a way, a lot like being a good person.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Fallen Hamprince posted:



The War Nerd is deeply saddened by the death of General Soleimani. He was very good at killing people, which is, in a way, a lot like being a good person.

like i get what he is sorta saying but thats very close to being like wehraboo contrarian poo poo who jerk it to loving Rommel or peiper. while i think its a bad thing(because assassinating state actors when your not in a hot war is loving bad on so many levels) heartfelt memorializing over Iranian tywin lannister is kinda hosed up and why is dislike war nerd in general. he will probably legit cry when assad dies of old age.

Dapper_Swindler fucked around with this message at 02:30 on Jan 4, 2020

Mokotow
Apr 16, 2012

Fallen Hamprince posted:

The War Nerd is deeply saddened by the death of General Soleimani. He was very good at killing people, which is, in a way, a lot like being a good person.

A reminder for those that don’t know that Gary is a fictional character, created by some extremely dodgy pro-Russian American exiles (whose musings on war were, admittedly, fun to read, what, a decade or two ago?).

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Mokotow posted:

A reminder for those that don’t know that Gary is a fictional character, created by some extremely dodgy pro-Russian American exiles (whose musings on war were, admittedly, fun to read, what, a decade or two ago?).

if you want a good lefty war history podcast.

https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/lions-led-by-donkeys-podcast

these guys are the best.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

A big flaming stink posted:

my understanding was that suleimani was on an official state visit to iran's allies in iraq

They blew up an Iraqi minister of protocol so yeah it was definitely a state visit.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Herstory Begins Now posted:

They blew up an Iraqi minister of protocol so yeah it was definitely a state visit.

also they blew up a Hezbollah commander and arrested a bunch of ministers.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Dapper_Swindler posted:

will people acutally listen to this dude or is this all saber rattling.

Grand Mufti Sheikh

Pretty loving sure FATWA powers is something people will listen to after 20 years of US presence and indescrimante killing in the earlier part.

Fallen Hamprince
Nov 12, 2016

An Iranian general, a Hezbollah commander, and an Iraqi Minister walk into a bar. Dozens are killed in the ensuing airstrike. At least it wasn't a wedding joke.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>
IMO probably comparable to acknowledging Vo Nguyen Giap who had a fuckton of European blood on his hands, but yknow, if there weren't Europeans 10,000 miles from home occupying the country it might've been a lot less euro blood on his hands.

That said, I think looking up to any military figure is almost always going to have you saying good things about really awful people, especially once you're talking about generals.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

Grand Mufti Sheikh

Pretty loving sure FATWA powers is something people will listen to after 20 years of US presence and indescrimante killing in the earlier part.

sorry.

Mokotow
Apr 16, 2012

Fallen Hamprince posted:

An Iranian general, a Hezbollah commander, and an Iraqi Minister walk into a bar. Dozens are killed in the ensuing airstrike. At least it wasn't a wedding joke.

...or was it?

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>
It's legitimately unbelievable to me that you have almost every major faction in Iraq coming out unified on this. I don't think anyone, anywhere could have seen that realistically happening over almost anything even 6 months ago

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Herstory Begins Now posted:

It's legitimately unbelievable to me that you have almost every major faction in Iraq coming out unified on this. I don't think anyone, anywhere could have seen that realistically happening over almost anything even 6 months ago

Can't wait for them to elect saddam hussein the second to lead the coalition against the US

Mokotow
Apr 16, 2012

Herstory Begins Now posted:

It's legitimately unbelievable to me that you have almost every major faction in Iraq coming out unified on this. I don't think anyone, anywhere could have seen that realistically happening over almost anything even 6 months ago

Doesn’t mean anything will come out of it. I mean, Yom Kippur and all that jazz.

Orange Devil
Oct 1, 2010

Wullie's reign cannae smother the flames o' equality!

LookingGodIntheEye posted:

And send out waves of child soldiers to clear landmines and barbed wire with their bodies.

Pointless tit-for-tat attacks between the US and their allies and Iran is better than invasion. But in the end it's just all an unnecessary farce and we already had a solution that was working with the nuclear agreement :shrug:. American imperialism sucks.

I guess we'll see how things develop in the coming year.

That's the real kicker. What victory in a conflict with Iran looks like is literally the nuclear agreement the Trump admin unilaterally tore up. This is all totally pointless.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Orange Devil posted:

That's the real kicker. What victory in a conflict with Iran looks like is literally the nuclear agreement the Trump admin unilaterally tore up. This is all totally pointless.

this. with that deal relations between the countries could have warmed and maybe societal changes would have gradually happened since iran was no longer fully cornered. but NOPE.

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WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes





75.5 % of the population is urban (63,420,504 people in 2019)

WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 02:58 on Jan 4, 2020

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