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Rukeli posted:The Iraqi and Iranian army were quite on par with each other during the Iran-Iraq war. I think today the US could easily take Tehran, like they took Baghdad. However, they won't be able to supress whatever insurgency comes thereafter. Also because unlike Iraq, Iran is mountainous country resembling Afghanistan (but much bigger).
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Jan 5, 2020 04:04
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the iran-iraq war is more than thirty years ago, it is somewhat dated as far as accurate intelligence goes
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Jan 5, 2020 04:05
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Dr. Red Ranger posted:If they hadn't fired everyone with a working frontal cortex they would have learned by now that Trump is incapable of critical, original thought and of moderating himself. Had they told him filling a swimming pool with balloons with Muhammeds face on them and throwing ham and cheese hot pockets at them to pop them was the most extreme option, dipshit would have done it the instant he felt insulted.
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Jan 5, 2020 04:10
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V. Illych L. posted:the iran-iraq war is more than thirty years ago, it is somewhat dated as far as accurate intelligence goes Current, accurate intelligence says that Iran is well stocked, well armed, well fortified, and has spent the last decade adapting their tactics and training based on what they've seen in Iraq and Afghanistan.
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Jan 5, 2020 04:10
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Frank Sidebottom posted:I'm sure the Pentagon understands what Iran's military capabilities are, SA poster Flaming Liberal I'm sure they're full of smarty mans which is why they started a war because supposedly they didn't understand Trump is a loving ego driven moron who will pick the worst option every time.
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Jan 5, 2020 04:12
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mystes posted:He rejected it the first time. The only reason he changed his mind was because of the protest at the embassy, and I think it's pretty obvious why he might freak out at a violent protest at an embassy. We definitely had to respond to the massive number of casualties at that extremely violent protest, yes.
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Jan 5, 2020 04:15
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for all the tom clancy wannabes who can't help but dream up ridiculous scenarios, here's an off the cuff assessment of how America could try and invade Iran from one irl American staff officer: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3896814&userid=0&perpage=40&pagenumber=165#post501321087 tl;dr its not going to happen. Not unless Americans stop caring about casualties
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Jan 5, 2020 04:16
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Squalid posted:for all the tom clancy wannabes who can't help but dream up ridiculous scenarios, here's an off the cuff assessment of how America could try and invade Iran from one irl American staff officer: in a normal case i agree. but trump doesnt give a gently caress about american lives.
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Jan 5, 2020 04:20
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Frank Sidebottom posted:I'm sure the Pentagon understands what Iran's military capabilities are, SA poster Flaming Liberal if they did they'd have probably resisted the temptation to include "assassinate a four-star general, lol" on the menu of options they gave Trump
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Jan 5, 2020 04:21
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RandomBlue posted:We definitely had to respond to the massive number of casualties at that extremely violent protest, yes.
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Jan 5, 2020 04:23
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Frank Sidebottom posted:I'm sure the Pentagon understands what Iran's military capabilities are, SA poster Flaming Liberal That’s quite a rap sheet you’ve got there, SA poster Frank Sidebottom.
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Jan 5, 2020 04:26
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mystes posted:Yes, that's not the reason. Responding to property damage with lethal force is not something sane people do. Especially a "response" like this.
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Jan 5, 2020 04:27
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I'm not saying it's a sane response. Obviously somewhere Trump realized that it sort of kind of could vaguely resemble Benghazi if you squinted at it and he freaked out and responded completely out of proportion. That's the only reason the embassy protest would lead to this. Edit: quote:“Benghazi has loomed large in his mind,” said Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.) in an interview, explaining the response this week. mystes fucked around with this message at 04:37 on Jan 5, 2020 |
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Jan 5, 2020 04:32
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Dapper_Swindler posted:in a normal case i agree. but trump doesnt give a gently caress about american lives. maybe more significant to him then is that it would be frickin expensive as heck. if people are concerned about escalating conflict between the USA and Iran they should really look into the US deployment in Iraq and how those could be hit, or maybe how an air war over Iran would go, rather than hyperventilating about amphibious landings or whatever
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Jan 5, 2020 04:44
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mystes posted:I'm not saying it's a sane response. Obviously somewhere Trump realized that it sort of kind of could vaguely resemble Benghazi if you squinted at it and he freaked out and responded completely out of proportion. That's the only reason the embassy protest would lead to this. Ok, just seemed like you were somewhat validating his response. It seems obvious this was due to the protest, which was a pretty measured response to air strikes.
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Jan 5, 2020 04:44
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I could have been more clear. It's just really telling that the embassy protest of all things is what set him off. It might actually be worse than him just randomly pointing at an option he was given, because it may mean he actually understood the result to some degree and is actually willing to start a war if he thinks the alternative is to look weaker than Obama.
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Jan 5, 2020 04:51
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Frank Sidebottom posted:I'm sure the Pentagon understands what Iran's military capabilities are, SA poster Flaming Liberal You would hope so given that Iran came out on top of the last Iraq war. Like they obviously don't, at least as far as the people pushing policy are concerned, but who cares what regional specialists on the bottom floors think
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Jan 5, 2020 04:55
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Yes I am sure that the Pentagon has no idea about the military capabilities of the nation Washington has wanted to go to war with for 40 years, and that they need to be schooled by some junior-level analyst, because this isn't a Tom Clancy novel, of course.
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Jan 5, 2020 06:40
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atelier morgan posted:Two problems: Iran is not a state invented by a british pedophile drawing on a map but an actual nation state with a cohesive identity. Every weakness of Hussein's Iraq that made it easier to destroy is missing. There's also no handy flat terrain border with a friendly Kuwait to let the US stage for months in advance. Solution to that last bit: First invade and occupy the oil-rich Khuzestan province, make friendly contacts with the locals by promising the independence of Arabistan, and then prepare for something bigger. Though that assumes Trump is as smart as Putin...
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Jan 5, 2020 06:42
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mystes posted:He rejected it the first time. The only reason he changed his mind was because of the protest at the embassy, and I think it's pretty obvious why he might freak out at a violent protest at an embassy. That's what I mean. Someone talked him into a semi-reasonable position but the instant the situation changed it looks like he immediately went to the worst, wildest thing he remembered. I could be wrong but that's how it reads to me
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Jan 5, 2020 06:49
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https://twitter.com/SpeakerPelosi/status/1213612759574863874 Good job Nancy, you loving nailed it.
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Jan 5, 2020 07:04
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atelier morgan posted:Two problems: Iran is not a state invented by a british pedophile drawing on a map but an actual nation state with a cohesive identity. Every weakness of Hussein's Iraq that made it easier to destroy is missing. There's also no handy flat terrain border with a friendly Kuwait to let the US stage for months in advance. If we were so belligerent as to invade Iran, I think at that point we actually would stage in Kuwait and go right through Iraq to get to Iran, regardless of what Iraq wants. In any case, I dont see how we can invade Iran before the elections. Even if things escalated further and Trump were to order an invasion, it would take a year at least for us to prepare for that. OctaMurk fucked around with this message at 07:09 on Jan 5, 2020 |
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Jan 5, 2020 07:06
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Squalid posted:maybe more significant to him then is that it would be frickin expensive as heck. No American president has ever given even a single gently caress about how much any political project* let alone a military operation costs and there's no indication that would change under the man who wants a giant physical wall along the entirety of the southern border and has no real concept of what things cost. *Notable exception: projects intended to actually help people Rukeli posted:Solution to that last bit: First invade and occupy the oil-rich Khuzestan province, make friendly contacts with the locals by promising the independence of Arabistan, and then prepare for something bigger. Another possible solution: don't loving invade Iran.
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Jan 5, 2020 07:15
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12 hours ago 2 rockets hit 2 US Bases, 1 iraq green zone and 1 airfield. Trump hasn't launched the cruise missiles yet, but will they cite this as a justification is the question
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Jan 5, 2020 07:17
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RandomBlue posted:https://twitter.com/SpeakerPelosi/status/1213612759574863874 The thing that bothers me is this: “As Speaker of the House, I reiterate my call on the Administration for an immediate, comprehensive briefing of the full Congress on military engagement related to Iran and next steps under consideration. The Administration must work with the Congress to advance a bonafide de-escalatory strategy that prevents further violence.” I'm not sure what else she can do, but the fact is there is no briefing, there is no plan - she's asking for something that doesn't exist and it's being treated like business as usual (relatively speaking).
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Jan 5, 2020 07:20
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UnknownTarget posted:The thing that bothers me is this: She can call it for what it loving is, like Bernie did, instead of pretending protocols and decorum matter at all to this loving moron. He just committed an illegal assassination and war crimes WHILE BEING IMPEACHED and the other side is still hammering their gavel and calling for  .
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Jan 5, 2020 07:25
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UnknownTarget posted:The thing that bothers me is this: it just blows my mind an impeached president was able to make such a weighty decision.
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Jan 5, 2020 07:36
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20 Blunts posted:it just blows my mind an impeached president was able to make such a weighty decision. Yeah the unitary executive was a pretty bad idea huh
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Jan 5, 2020 07:43
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GHOST_BUTT posted:Yeah the unitary executive was a pretty bad idea huh im thinking less about the constitutionality, more about the careerist military leadership that let this happen
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Jan 5, 2020 07:45
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20 Blunts posted:im thinking less about the constitutionality, more about the careerist military leadership that let this happen I've been thinking about that and for people who have spent their entire lives learning and respecting the chain of command, building their world around following the word of an individual...well I guess the implications of not following through with their orders at that level is really too great to comprehend. That's like a week long thinking session and they have to react immediately. I can see why they'd just follow through.
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Jan 5, 2020 07:49
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UnknownTarget posted:I've been thinking about that and for people who have spent their entire lives learning and respecting the chain of command, building their world around following the word of an individual...well I guess the implications of not following through with their orders at that level is really too great to comprehend. That's like a week long thinking session and they have to react immediately. I can see why they'd just follow through. Yeah, we should just expect this from our military, forgive them and move on despite the years of evidence of their commander in chief being 100% incapable of being a rational human being, let alone an effective leader. Resignation is always an option. Choosing not to resign in this situation means you value your career over human lives or you're a horrible piece of poo poo that wants this to happen. RandomBlue fucked around with this message at 08:01 on Jan 5, 2020 |
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Jan 5, 2020 07:57
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Rukeli posted:Solution to that last bit: First invade and occupy the oil-rich Khuzestan province, make friendly contacts with the locals by promising the independence of Arabistan, and then prepare for something bigger. They should check with the Kurds in Syria first to see how much you can rely on the US's support.
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Jan 5, 2020 10:24
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GHOST_BUTT posted:Yeah the unitary executive was a pretty bad idea huh In 100 years I think people will note a major factor in the decline of America as a superpower was handing diplomatic and military power supremely into the hands of a single individual that was also directly elected. It lead to unreliable, short-sighted, and often just stupid foreign policy, in an arena where long-term decision-making is vital, which made other countries seek leadership elsewhere.
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Jan 5, 2020 10:56
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RandomBlue posted:Yeah, we should just expect this from our military, forgive them and move on despite the years of evidence of their commander in chief being 100% incapable of being a rational human being, let alone an effective leader. Resigning just means they're replaced with someone that won't resign. See Andrew Jackson's Bank War and Robert Bork during Watergate. E: Sorry, Jackson fired the secretary, he didn't resign. America Inc. fucked around with this message at 11:11 on Jan 5, 2020 |
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Jan 5, 2020 11:02
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Yeah, I’m sure Jesus told Mike Pence to cleanse the Holy Lands a few times.
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Jan 5, 2020 11:10
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ganglysumbia posted:Easy killer. The reason is Khomeini trolled him on twitter and said "you can't do anything".
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Jan 5, 2020 11:10
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ganglysumbia posted:Yeah, I’m sure Jesus told Mike Pence to cleanse the Holy Lands a few times.
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Jan 5, 2020 11:16
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No way 
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Jan 5, 2020 11:22
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I'm down with sending John Bolton to prison in Iran in exchange, this whole thing could be a net positive.
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Jan 5, 2020 11:27
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Charlz Guybon posted:No way trump: whoa whoa not me guys, just an underling please
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Jan 5, 2020 11:42
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