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If that video is legit it's hard to imagine anything BUT it being shot down. Maybe it was a bomb? Based on what we've seen in Ukraine it's pretty believable that some poorly trained and overeager yahoos would get itchy trigger fingers and shoot down a civilian aircraft. Especially at night when they were presumably seeing a bunch of stuff on the internet and in the media about US planes taking off.
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Jan 8, 2020 05:39
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Fojar38 posted:If that video is legit it's hard to imagine anything BUT it being shot down. Maybe it was a bomb? A passenger 737 would look NOTHING like an american combat jet or missile on radar. There's no way they would shoot it down
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Jan 8, 2020 05:43
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Nitrousoxide posted:A passenger 737 would look NOTHING like an american combat jet or missile on radar. There's no way they would shoot it down
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Jan 8, 2020 05:46
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Fojar38 posted:If that video is legit it's hard to imagine anything BUT it being shot down. Maybe it was a bomb? I.G. posted:I'm sure the people on that plane shot down over Ukraine will be happy to hear this. What does that have to do with "what we've seen in Ukraine"? This is a well-trained army, not some militia getting its first chance to play with the new toy the little green men gave them.
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Jan 8, 2020 05:50
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I.G. posted:I'm sure the people on that plane shot down over Ukraine will be happy to hear this. Maybe they weren't actually shot down on accident. 
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Jan 8, 2020 05:50
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Nitrousoxide posted:A passenger 737 would look NOTHING like an american combat jet or missile on radar. There's no way they would shoot it down What is more likely: 1) A literal one in a million catastrophic failure happening on the same day that an on-edge country retaliated against the USA or; 2) A single AA unit misidentifying an aircraft and shooting it down Of course it's impossible to rule out #1 until we see some evidence of what happened, but the odds strongly point to #2. Seph fucked around with this message at 05:55 on Jan 8, 2020 |
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Jan 8, 2020 05:53
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Nitrousoxide posted:A passenger 737 would look NOTHING like an american combat jet or missile on radar. There's no way they would shoot it down The USS Vincennes shot down Iran Air 655 (an A300 passenger jet) after supposedly mistaking it for an attacking F-14. It's more likely than you think for poo poo like this to happen.
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Jan 8, 2020 05:56
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Also keep in mind that even if all of Iran's military units are impeccably trained, their equipment is relatively old and probably not the best maintained and that alone could mean that some radar installation didn't properly pick up the plane and so it was assumed to be hostile. In addition to the fact that everyone was on alert and possibly more than a little bit paranoid.
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Jan 8, 2020 05:56
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Seph posted:What is more likely: Which ever I find more politically palatable. 
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Jan 8, 2020 05:58
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Absurd Alhazred posted:What does that have to do with "what we've seen in Ukraine"? This is a well-trained army, not some militia getting its first chance to play with the new toy the little green men gave them. Iranian army are mostly conscripts that, at this time, are twitchy, nervous and probably not getting much sleep. It's still the most likely explanation. Gervasius fucked around with this message at 06:03 on Jan 8, 2020 |
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Jan 8, 2020 06:01
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Seph posted:What is more likely: Those aren't the only two options.
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Jan 8, 2020 06:04
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Iranian state media is apparently saying that the crash was caused by "mechanical issues" which is an explanation I'm immediately wary of considering they couldn't possibly have known that this quickly.
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Jan 8, 2020 06:06
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Guns and missiles are mechanical. Story checks out.
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Jan 8, 2020 06:07
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Barring some insanity from the president we should be at an end in regards to direct military conflict. Glad that the Republican hawks are going to go without their war.
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Jan 8, 2020 06:08
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Gervasius posted:Iranian army are mostly conscripts that, at this time, are twitchy, nervous and probably not getting much sleep. It's still the most likely explanation. Just because they're conscripts doesn't mean they don't get trained properly. It's conceivable that they've made a mistake but it's not "oh, just like those barely trained insurgents in Eastern Ukraine" likely.
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Jan 8, 2020 06:09
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Hamelekim posted:Barring some insanity from the president we should be at an end in regards to direct military conflict. Glad that the Republican hawks are going to go without their war. Good luck with all of that. Insanity from Trump would just be crazy abnormal.
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Jan 8, 2020 06:11
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Maybe it wasn't a good idea to start flying a passenger plane in the middle of a warzone. The people first to blame would be air traffic control.
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Jan 8, 2020 06:11
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LookingGodIntheEye posted:Maybe it wasn't a good idea to start flying a passenger plane in the middle of a warzone. The people first to blame would be air traffic control. Iran wasn't a warzone.
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Jan 8, 2020 06:12
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Fojar38 posted:Iranian state media is apparently saying that the crash was caused by "mechanical issues" which is an explanation I'm immediately wary of considering they couldn't possibly have known that this quickly. Maybe the pilots radioed ATC with a problem?
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Jan 8, 2020 06:13
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LookingGodIntheEye posted:Maybe it wasn't a good idea to start flying a passenger plane in the middle of a warzone. The people first to blame would be air traffic control. As I stated earlier, throughout the past 5 hours every major airline worldwide flew their aircraft as normal through Iraq and Iran without any deviations.
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Jan 8, 2020 06:15
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Iran Air 655 was a personnel fuckup IIRC, and the Aegis systems were not reading out an F-14 on attack. I'm guessing Iranian conscripts are capable of the same type of fuckup.
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Jan 8, 2020 06:15
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I figure trump must be sedated or somehow locked away from his tweeter.
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Jan 8, 2020 06:16
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Maybe people could refrain from reposting some rando on twitter named "The intel crab" posting "unconfirmed reports".
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Jan 8, 2020 06:16
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RandomBlue posted:Those aren't the only two options. Based on the video and the abrupt end of the ADS-B data it was either a sudden catastrophic failure or it was shot down/blown up. I guess I could have included bomb/other into the #2 category to be comprehensive. But like I said in previous posts, modern airliners do not suddenly explode for no reason. Basically every plane crash in the last two decades has been pilot error or terrorism, with the exception of the MAX which was a software issue and looked nothing like this.
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Jan 8, 2020 06:17
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RandomBlue posted:Iran wasn't a warzone.
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Jan 8, 2020 06:19
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https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1214776753140518915 everyone on board died
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Jan 8, 2020 06:21
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KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD posted:Iran Air 655 was a personnel fuckup IIRC, and the Aegis systems were not reading out an F-14 on attack. Oh poo poo an F35 just launched from our airport, fire!
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Jan 8, 2020 06:21
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RandomBlue posted:Oh poo poo an F35 just launched from our airport, fire! F35 Season! 737 Season! F35 Season! 737 Season! F35 Season! F35 Season! 737 Season, fire!
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Jan 8, 2020 06:23
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RandomBlue posted:Oh poo poo an F35 just launched from our airport, fire!
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Jan 8, 2020 06:23
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Absurd Alhazred posted:What does that have to do with "what we've seen in Ukraine"? This is a well-trained army, not some militia getting its first chance to play with the new toy the little green men gave them. MH17 was shot down by a Russian military unit, not the militia which only guarded the missile launcher
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Jan 8, 2020 06:24
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KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD posted:Oh poo poo that aircraft blaring a passenger IFF and steadily climbing away is actually an Iranian F-14, fire! Did we have an aircraft carrier or airbase in Tehran today? Because that's the only way the situations could possibly be similar if you think we shot down Iran Air 655 on accident. RandomBlue fucked around with this message at 06:46 on Jan 8, 2020 |
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Jan 8, 2020 06:44
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RandomBlue posted:Did we have an aircraft carrier or airbase in Tehran today? Because that's the only way the situations could possibly be similar if you think we shot down Iran Air 655 on accident. There might be a carrier in the Caspian, you don’t know 😤
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Jan 8, 2020 06:49
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Didn’t the Soviets kill a ton of people shooting down a passenger jet too? But that was air to air if I recall correctly.
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Jan 8, 2020 06:50
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Delthalaz posted:Didn’t the Soviets kill a ton of people shooting down a passenger jet too? But that was air to air if I recall correctly. Yeah, Korean Air 007 I think it was
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Jan 8, 2020 06:51
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RandomBlue posted:Did we have an aircraft carrier or airbase in Tehran today? Because that's the only way the situations could possibly be similar if you think we shot down Iran Air 655 on accident.
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Jan 8, 2020 06:51
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Delthalaz posted:Didn’t the Soviets kill a ton of people shooting down a passenger jet too? But that was air to air if I recall correctly. Jets. Plural. Aeroflot 902, KAL 902 and KAL 007. Also, "only" two people died on KAL 902 shootdown. KAL 007 was the deadliest one, soviet jet fighter shot down a 747.
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Jan 8, 2020 06:54
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Gervasius posted:Jets. Plural. Aeroflot 902, KAL 902 and KAL 007. Also, "only" two people died on KAL 902 shootdown. KAL 007 was the deadliest one, soviet jet fighter shot down a 747. Thump! posted:Yeah, Korean Air 007 I think it was Ahh yes Korean Air was the one I remember reading about. Goddamn an entire 747.
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Jan 8, 2020 06:59
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Delthalaz posted:Ahh yes Korean Air was the one I remember reading about. Goddamn an entire 747. With a member of the House of Representatives on board.
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Jan 8, 2020 07:05
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Hamelekim posted:Barring some insanity from the president we should be at an end in regards to direct military conflict. Glad that the Republican hawks are going to go without their war. Iranians aren't going to leave it at that. They'll bomb some embassies or something in a month or two. Who knows how Trump will react to that. Anyways, this seems bad https://twitter.com/swin24/status/1214780112148860928
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Jan 8, 2020 07:06
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Charlz Guybon posted:Iranians aren't going to leave it at that. They'll bomb some embassies or something in a month or two. Who knows how Trump will react to that.
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Jan 8, 2020 07:13
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