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American crusaders are too religious to pull out of ME.
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Jan 8, 2020 19:14
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Grouchio posted:You know what? I think this is the best long-term scenario: Has Trump been humbled? I bet he thinks of this as an outright win; everyone's talking about how he killed the big bad guy, and all the libs who predicted WWIII were wrong because the Iranians were too chicken. I bet this just emboldens him to order a direct strike on the Ayatollah or something.
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Jan 8, 2020 19:14
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Grouchio posted:You know what? I think this is the best long-term scenario: "Let the middle east be Russia or China's problem," is peak Chud talk my dude. I don't care how much you hate American Empire, us getting the loving boot from an entire region of the world and giving countries that are sure as he'll not better than us a free hand to play thier own imperial games there is not good. Isolationism is not a "win."
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Jan 8, 2020 19:18
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Seph posted:Uncontained engine failures happen less than one in every million flight hours on modern aircraft. Occams razor says this plane was taken down rather than a literal one in a million event happening on the same day as a significant armed escalation in the region. You're assuming the two events are related tho. The engine failure is still the same one in a million regardless of its coinciding with other unrelated improbable events. That said, I think it's probable it got shot down, but I'm to at least wait for more evidence before doing my own arm chair plane crash forensics
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Jan 8, 2020 19:21
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Civilized Fishbot posted:Has Trump been humbled? I bet he thinks of this as an outright win; everyone's talking about how he killed the big bad guy, and all the libs who predicted WWIII were wrong because the Iranians were too chicken. I bet this just emboldens him to order a direct strike on the Ayatollah or something. thats my worry. my guess is some iranian proxies will hit us and trump and other chickenhawks will use that as a reason.
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Jan 8, 2020 19:22
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Brown Moses posted:This image has started going around Twitter, the location isn't verified yet, but it match a Tor surface to air missile Google translate: This is a fragment found at the crash site of a Ukrainian passenger plane that fell in front of a resident's home. Does the airplane look anything like this? Isn't it rocket?
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Jan 8, 2020 19:22
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Trump is objectively terrible but for the left/liberals/Democrats the events of the past few days aren't worth significantly going after him on and doing so might actually be self-defeating. Most people aren't familiar with the nuances of geopolitical affairs and the basic facts of this scenario appear to be "Trump killed a bad guy and the Iranians couldn't do anything about it" and trying to spin it otherwise risks looking strained at best. The focus should shift back to impeachment ASAP in my opinion.
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Jan 8, 2020 19:24
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Sanguinia posted:"Let the middle east be Russia or China's problem," is peak Chud talk my dude. I don't care how much you hate American Empire, us getting the loving boot from an entire region of the world and giving countries that are sure as he'll not better than us a free hand to play thier own imperial games there is not good. Isolationism is not a "win." If there's a formula for bombing the world into being a better place, we haven't found it yet. Even if there are positive actions that can be taken, right now the number one thing the US can do is to stop doing bad things, so wanting the US to pull back at least until we get this whole thing figured out seems good to me. I don't think that means abandoning every position overnight, but the era of permanent deployments in the Middle East needs to end.
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Jan 8, 2020 19:28
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mackensie posted:Google translate: It matches the front end of a Tor AA rocket, they've been previously documented in a similar state in Ukraine https://twitter.com/Liberalist_30/status/1214970009635549184/photo/1 The problem with the photo is it's been taken at an angle where it'll be next to impossible to geolocate, so unless another image appears which can be geolocated it won't be possible to verify it's in Iran.
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Jan 8, 2020 19:28
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eighty-four merc posted:You're assuming the two events are related tho. The engine failure is still the same one in a million regardless of its coinciding with other unrelated improbable events. What I'm saying is if this plane had crashed two days ago instead of last night, or in literally any country but Iran or Iraq, I'd be much more likely to believe it was a mechanical failure. The fact that it happened in a country that was on high alert for retaliation, hours after launching missiles at US bases, increases the odds of it being a mistaken takedown significantly.
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Jan 8, 2020 19:29
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I wouldn't post on twitter or fb that it definitely went down that way, and nobody should go on tv to do that either, so it's good that people will be doing the forensic work to verify that, but come on, Iran almost definitely took down their own bird. Edit: Okay this post may not be aging well if the intelligence agencies are saying it looks like the engine blew. If it was really just a coincidence, holy poo poo. Also boy did Boeing get lucky that another one of their loving planes crashed and other poo poo overshadowed it. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 22:11 on Jan 8, 2020 |
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Jan 8, 2020 19:31
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Has the Canadian government said anything. Tons of Canadians died in that plane. Much more than Ukrainians. Probably all Ukrainians are from the crew.
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Jan 8, 2020 19:38
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Grouchio posted:You know what? I think this is the best long-term scenario: Never mind Trump's red line rhetoric -- in terms of optics, he killed a Big Bad and incurred some property damage for his troubles. I'm happy things are pointing towards deescalation, especially in view of the alarmism on Twitter when the assassination news broke, but Trump just won this news cycle bigly.
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Jan 8, 2020 19:40
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stephenthinkpad posted:Has the Canadian government said anything. Tons of Canadians died in that plane. Much more than Ukrainians. Probably all Ukrainians are from the crew. "Trudeau says plane crash in Iran that killed 63 Canadians will be 'thoroughly investigated'" https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/iran-ukrainian-plane-crash-canada-reaction-1.5418648
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Jan 8, 2020 19:41
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just another posted:I mostly lurk here because I have absolutely nothing to contribute vis a vis Middle Eastern politics, but this take kind of boggles my mind. No Americans who aren't warmongers or war nerds knew who Soleimani even was before we murked him. If this blows over, I don't think he's going to get all that much credit for killing some random guy. It's not like killing Baghdadi suddenly changed everything and made people finally respect and admire Trump, and that was bigger. To the extent that this counts as winning a news cycle, it's because American media get boners for blowing poo poo up and this instance didn't go long enough for the post-climax shame to set in. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 19:47 on Jan 8, 2020 |
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Jan 8, 2020 19:43
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Honestly I see this as a big win for trump overall. He takes out one of the middle easts most legendary soldiers and all Iran does is bomb a parking lot? It’s a return to the status quo but with more sanctions, and now the clear message to all parties in Iraq that loving with American embassies will lead to them getting axed. Now the mullahs are revealed to be completely toothless paper tigers, only capable of ranting of the great satan without ever actually being able to do anything about it. Neither country wants a open war but the proxy battle will continue.
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Jan 8, 2020 19:49
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Sinteres posted:No Americans who aren't warmongers or war nerds knew who Soleimani even was before we murked him. If this blows over, I don't think he's going to get all that much credit for killing some random guy. It's not like killing Baghdadi suddenly changed everything and made people finally respect and admire Trump, and that was bigger. Even if many people didint knew who it was a week before, mainstream media all over the world after the assassination made a pretty good job of painting him like a big supervillain
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Jan 8, 2020 19:53
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Grouchio posted:3. I'm beginning to believe that Iran is most-suited to dominating mid-east politics compared to Israel, Saudis or Turkey. Yeah, because they just ruthlessly supressed a series of large scale demonstrations in their country and they were instrumental in giving military advice and supplying manpower in the form of Shiite militias to the Assad regime so it could wage a campaign of terror against the Syrian people. Clearly that puts them high above those other three and not just in the same loving camp (the only ones truly not beloning that club in my opnion are the Saudis, and that's not because they aren't loving terrible or are better than the others, but because they are also laughably incompetent).
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Jan 8, 2020 19:53
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Sinteres posted:No Americans who aren't warmongers or war nerds knew who Soleimani even was before we murked him. If this blows over, I don't think he's going to get all that much credit for killing some random guy. It's not like killing Baghdadi suddenly changed everything and made people finally respect and admire Trump, and that was bigger.
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Jan 8, 2020 19:55
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Grouchio posted:You know what? I think this is the best long-term scenario: I don't really have an opinion one way or the other on the rest of your points (as people pointed out "Let China and Russia handle it" seems kind of irresponsible), but this really seems to ring true to me. I'm a white guy in the US who doesn't pay that much attention to the ME except when poo poo goes wrong, but I agree that it seems that Iran has been the best actor out of the countries in the region that have had governmental continuity for that length of time. From what I've picked up in the thread, it seems like they are reactive to the real-rear end threats in the region like ISIS, willing to play ball with the "terrorist" orgs that the US won't ever negotiate with, and basically hated all the same people we did- if we didn't invade Iraq, they probably would have pushed back on anything Saddam did outside of his borders, for instance. Obviously they aren't some sort of unalloyed force for good, if only because they seem to do pretty shady poo poo to their own protesters and such, but compared to Israel, who hates everyone around them basically, Turkey, who has like 3 genocides under their belt, and KSA, who hates anyone that doesn't bend the knee, Iran seems much more willing to let their neighbors do whatever as long as they aren't causing problems for them or their allies, and they come across as the only genuine peacemakers in the region. Am I just drinking the Kool-Aid, or does this seem more-or-less accurate to the people outside of the US propaganda-sphere? BougieBitch fucked around with this message at 20:02 on Jan 8, 2020 |
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Jan 8, 2020 20:00
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BougieBitch posted:I don't really have an opinion one way or the other on the rest of your points (as people pointed out "Let China and Russia handle it" seems kind of irresponsible), but this really seems to ring true to me. I'm a white guy in the US who doesn't pay that much attention to the ME except when poo poo goes wrong, but I agree that it seems that Iran has been the best actor out of the countries in the region that have had governmental continuity for that length of time. From what I've picked up in the thread, it seems like they are reactive to the real-rear end threats in the region like ISIS, willing to play ball with the "terrorist" orgs that the US won't ever negotiate with, and basically hated all the same people we did- if we didn't invade Iraq, they probably would have pushed back on anything Saddam did outside of his borders, for instance. Obviously they aren't some sort of unalloyed force for good, if only because they seem to do pretty shady poo poo to their own protesters and such, but compared to Israel, who hates everyone around them basically, and KSA, who hates anyone that doesn't bend the knee, Iran seems much more willing to let their neighbors do whatever as long as they aren't causing problems for them or their allies, and they come across as the only genuine peacemakers in the region. You're drinking the loving Kool-Aid.
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Jan 8, 2020 20:01
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just another posted:I mostly lurk here because I have absolutely nothing to contribute vis a vis Middle Eastern politics, but this take kind of boggles my mind. The telling thing will be if the US is more or less evicted from Iraq and how other countries in the area feel about our continued presence. Iran basically asked them 'Do you think the US will protect you if you let them stay/operate against us?' last night.
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Jan 8, 2020 20:03
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Trump does come out of this winning. Iran backed out of the nuclear deal completely, severing an important line to Europe, he managed to kill their national hero and a genuinely good commander, Iran may have shot down a passenger jet on its own territory. All that cost was the few buildings destroyed and a broken relationship with an outgoing Iraqi government.
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Jan 8, 2020 20:03
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Randarkman posted:You're drinking the loving Kool-Aid. Can you expand on that a bit? You seem to be pretty well-read based on your previous posts about the history of the region, but I'm not really sure what atrocities Iran has committed that are anywhere near the scale of the literal genocides in Turkey, the literal slavery in KSA, or the literal apartheid in Israel. I'm sure this is in large part due to a lack of reporting on the internal poo poo in Iran due to governmental control of the media and such, but if you can point me at what they have done with similar bodycount/human suffering it would be very helpful
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Jan 8, 2020 20:06
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I'm cautious about ascribing any cause to the PS752 crash yet. Midair failures are extremely rare and with tensions as they were the odds of an air defense unit making a mistake were elevated. But, going by Flightradar, the incident happened right over a planned city outside Tehran called Parand New Town, which seems densely populated and growing quickly; the current population is maybe around 100,000 people.. The flaming aircraft was clearly captured on video, but if it was a Tor, I would expect there to have been many eyewitness reports of the missile launch. This doesn't seem subtle. Iranians have the internet, so I would think it wouldn't take that long to track down and interview some people who saw a launch. Has anyone seen credible reports? An air-to-air missile seems more likely to have escaped notice from the ground, but also much less likely to have been a mistake. And it's hard to see who benefits here from a terrorist attack.
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Jan 8, 2020 20:07
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Iran is full of shitbags, as is the KSA, Isreal, US, Russia.... In 50 years most of the region is going to be near uninhabitable due to climate change, and we sure as hell don’t need that oil. We are there currently for what reasons? To stop terrorism that is caused by us being there? The whole thing is a poo poo sandwich and the sooner we leave the better.
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Jan 8, 2020 20:08
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Space Panda posted:Honestly I see this as a big win for trump overall. He takes out one of the middle easts most legendary soldiers and all Iran does is bomb a parking lot? It’s a return to the status quo but with more sanctions, and now the clear message to all parties in Iraq that loving with American embassies will lead to them getting axed. Now the mullahs are revealed to be completely toothless paper tigers, only capable of ranting of the great satan without ever actually being able to do anything about it. There will be actual American death soon, but the rockets will fly out of Yemen/Syria/whatever to give Iran an air of deniability. I can see rockets flying to Dubai too if UAE doesn't help Iran smuggling goods. IMO its a short term win for Iran regime, long term it depends of the detail of the economy sanction. For the US, its definitely a long term lose; as for Trump. I don't know if I care. He doesn't need this to fan off the useless Democrats anyway. It's also a big win for China/Russia and Israel.
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Jan 8, 2020 20:09
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BougieBitch posted:Can you expand on that a bit? You seem to be pretty well-read based on your previous posts about the history of the region, but I'm not really sure what atrocities Iran has committed that are anywhere near the scale of the literal genocides in Turkey, the literal slavery in KSA, or the literal apartheid in Israel. I'm sure this is in large part due to a lack of reporting on the internal poo poo in Iran due to governmental control of the media and such, but if you can point me at what they have done with similar bodycount/human suffering it would be very helpful I mean just look at what I said above and think about the body count in Syria, the Iranians by marshalling the support of Hezbollah and Iraqi Shiite militias, as well as providing military advice and commanders the entire time have been instrumental in allowing this to happen, again keeping in mind that the largest portions of civilian deaths in Syria by far are attributed to the actions of the Syrian government forces and its allies, who also by the way have never really focused on fighting ISIS as a primary focus. They bear a large degree of responsibility for that I think. There's also the reported conduct of many Shiite militias in Iraq, many of whom are armed and otherwise supported by Iran, towards the Sunni Arab population, which was pretty significant in driving people headfirst into the arms of ISIS. You can also look at the protests in Iraq and the complaints that often come up about Iran's influence to see how that influence is perceived in a neighboring country under heavy Iranian influence. Iran should not be treated like a pariah rogue state but they have decidedly not been a force for good when it comes to their (and their proxies') conduct in the Middle East. Not directly related to that but since you mentioned Iran as an alternative to Turkey, Israel or KSA, I would like to say that, especially if the US departs the region, that the interests of Turkey and Iran are very much not at odds as much as a cursory glance might indicate. Syria might seem like a problem, but really Turkey is more interested smashing Kurdish power there than anything else and can probably work with both Iran and the Assad regime to get an arrangement, Iran has problems with its Kurdish population as well. They both have influence in Iraq, though Turkish influence has been more trade and politically been somewhat limited to the Kurdistan regional government. Otherwise they are both unfriendly and at odds with Israel and KSA. Not to mention that Turkey has come through as mediator on the part of Iran multiple times in recent history, and even back during the Iran-Iraq war was a vital trading partner and one of Iran's only points of access to the global market, as trade between the two countries increased tremendously. Randarkman fucked around with this message at 20:27 on Jan 8, 2020 |
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Jan 8, 2020 20:22
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Randarkman posted:I mean just look at what I said above and think about the body count in Syria, the Iranians by marshalling the support of Hezbollah and Iraqi Shiite militias, as well as providing military advice and commanders the entire time have been instrumental in allowing this to happen, again keeping in mind that the largest portions of civilian deaths in Syria by far are attributed to the actions of the Syrian government forces and its allies, who also by the way have never really focused on fighting ISIS as a primary focus. They bear a large degree of responsibility for that I think. There's also the reported conduct of many Shiite militias in Iraq, many of whom are armed and otherwise supported by Iran, towards the Sunni Arab population, which was pretty significant in driving people headfirst into the arms of ISIS. You can also look at the protests in Iraq and the complaints that often come up about Iran's influence to see how that influence is perceived in a neighboring country under heavy Iranian influence. Iran should not be treated like a pariah rogue state but they have decidedly not been a force for good when it comes to their (and their proxies') conduct in the Middle East. I guess I view the action of non-governmental entities as sort of ancillary to the point here, which may just be a symptom of my personal ignorance on the details of the conflict in Syria. For better or worse, it seems that Iran took action to prevent the second I in ISIS from being too prophetic and while I don't really think Iran influencing Iraq's government is any sort of a good thing it at least is a stabilizing action in contrast to the poo poo Turkey has been doing to try to gently caress with the borders in Syria, Israel threatening to annex the parts of Palestine occupied by the illegal settlements, and KSA trying to blockade and starve Yemen. Basically, Iran working through proxies with plausible deniability seems to me to indicate that the long-term goal is a normalization of relations between all countries involved, while Israel, SA, and Turkey are all openly belligerent and clearly nationalist/expansionist. Iran seems to be angling for overwhelming soft power in the region with military power as the backup plan, basically, where the other three seem much more shoot-first in terms of foreign affairs. Basically, if the choice is between Cold War vs WWII, Cold War seems like the more attractive option. Edit: I also am not really saying that any of the 4 has goals strictly in opposition to any other of the 4, though obviously the current alignment of interests seems fairly clear, but I think outside of those 4 the rest of the countries in the region are kind of non-entities in terms of determination of regional outcomes due to a lack of stability/force-projection/population, and I don't think there's really anyone else that could rise to prominence without being puppeted by a global superpower, and I think all else being equal it is better if regional actors decide what goes on in the region. Given that, Iran really does seem like the lesser of evils to me, not to whitewash what bad things they have done/are doing but just in the sense that if the Middle East was going to form a NATO equivalent they seem like the one that would do it and also the one that would be least dangerous to give veto power to. Given the outcomes in Europe, that kind of this is obviously not really something to aspire to, but it's the lens I'm thinking of it through because of my American perspective BougieBitch fucked around with this message at 20:47 on Jan 8, 2020 |
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Jan 8, 2020 20:37
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Okay. So helping Assad destroy Syria was not destabilizing at all then I guess.
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Jan 8, 2020 20:40
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Brown Moses posted:It matches the front end of a Tor AA rocket, they've been previously documented in a similar state in Ukraine I see you haven't been paid to claim that Iran's used chemical weapons yet Kinda hilarious to see gig economy colin powell still posting here
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Jan 8, 2020 20:41
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BougieBitch posted:I guess I view the action of non-governmental entities as sort of ancillary to the point here, which may just be a symptom of my personal ignorance on the details of the conflict in Syria. For better or worse, it seems that Iran took action to prevent the second I in ISIS from being too prophetic and while I don't really think Iran influencing Iraq's government is any sort of a good thing it at least is a stabilizing action in contrast to the poo poo Turkey has been doing to try to gently caress with the borders in Syria, Israel threatening to annex the parts of Palestine occupied by the illegal settlements, and KSA trying to blockade and starve Yemen. Basically, Iran working through proxies with plausible deniability seems to me to indicate that the long-term goal is a normalization of relations between all countries involved, while Israel, SA, and Turkey are all openly belligerent and clearly nationalist/expansionist. Iran seems to be angling for overwhelming soft power in the region with military power as the backup plan, basically, where the other three seem much more shoot-first in terms of foreign affairs. Basically, if the choice is between Cold War vs WWII, Cold War seems like the more attractive option.
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Jan 8, 2020 20:41
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Randarkman posted:Okay. So helping Assad destroy Syria was not destabilizing at all then I guess. Let's be fair here, that was a group project and no one country deserves all the credit. atelier morgan posted:I see you haven't been paid to claim that Iran's used chemical weapons yet 
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Jan 8, 2020 20:43
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Taerkar posted:Let's be fair here, that was a group project and no one country deserves all the credit. There is one party that did more than any other to bring it about though. And the Iranians were instrumental to this, more so than the Russians in my opinion, especially considering the Iranians and their proxies were there from the very beginning.
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Jan 8, 2020 20:49
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Rent-A-Cop posted:You do not, in fact, gotta hand it to 'em. I mean, you also don't got to hand it to the US government, the Australian government, the UK government, the Russian government, etc. etc. etc. I'm not really convinced that there's a method of governance or possible group of government officials that can make good decisions even 50% of the time, but at the end of the day you really DO have to hand "it" to them, where "it" is control over national resources and decision-making, so out of the alternatives that have even a 1% chance of happening I don't really see one that is obviously preferable to "Iran becomes the most important regional actor" Edit: I also think looking at events in a vacuum is a bit reductive, all the poo poo that happened with ISIS was a logical consequence of the US sticking their dick in Iraq and various other events going much further back than that, so for the sake of my line of questioning I'm really more asking "going forward, what outcome is there to hope for that is preferable to Iran gaining regional power that has any logical method of happening?" BougieBitch fucked around with this message at 20:56 on Jan 8, 2020 |
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Jan 8, 2020 20:51
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BougieBitch posted:I mean, you also don't got to hand it to the US government, the Australian government, the UK government, the Russian government, etc. etc. etc. I'm not really convinced that there's a method of governance or possible group of government officials that can make good decisions even 50% of the time, but at the end of the day you really DO have to hand "it" to them, where "it" is control over national resources and decision-making, so out of the alternatives that have even a 1% chance of happening I don't really see one that is obviously preferable to "Iran becomes the most important regional actor" Iran wouldn't magically dominate the region even if everyone else withdrew, despite all the fearmongering. Turkey would easily be stronger. They just don't get along with US allies in the region like KSA and Israel so they get kind of ignored as a regional actor.
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Jan 8, 2020 20:52
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Sinteres posted:Iran wouldn't magically dominate the region even if everyone else withdrew, despite all the fearmongering. Turkey would easily be stronger. They just don't get along with US allies in the region like KSA and Israel so they get kind of ignored as a regional actor. Well yeah, but "Iran gains regional power" is obviously more likely than "the royal family of KSA all dies of heart attacks and a glorious communist revolution takes the country by storm" or "Israel and Palestine finally come to a border agreement, all nationals gain full rights, racism disappears overnight" Edit: I also think Turkey is in an exceptionally weird position due to the geography. Due to having to split their focus between EU/Western European issues, Russian issues, and Middle Eastern issues, even if they have more power in an absolute sense, they aren't necessarily a shoo-in for being the most important regionally. BougieBitch fucked around with this message at 21:10 on Jan 8, 2020 |
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Jan 8, 2020 20:57
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Iran is the only Islamic country in middle east that has good chance of modernize its industries. And it has 10 times the population of Israel. The numbers look pretty good in the long run. Turkey would be next if you count it as a ME country.
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Jan 8, 2020 21:09
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BougieBitch posted:Edit: I also think looking at events in a vacuum is a bit reductive, all the poo poo that happened with ISIS was a logical consequence of the US sticking their dick in Iraq and various other events going much further back than that, so for the sake of my line of questioning I'm really more asking "going forward, what outcome is there to hope for that is preferable to Iran gaining regional power that has any logical method of happening?" I mean yeah. And how is attributing ISIS solely to the US and negating the role played by neglect from the Iraqi government (and abuse by Shiite militias) towards Sunni Arab areas not also looking at events in a vacuum? How is overlooking the actions of Iranian allies and proxies to allow you to paint Iran as a force for good that has not contributed in causing the deaths of hundreds of thousands and creating millions of refugees not looking at things in a vacuum? You started your post by saying you could be mistaken because you weren't really all that informed or involved, but it really sounds alot like you made your mind up a long time ago regardless.
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Jan 8, 2020 21:10
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Randarkman posted:I mean yeah. And how is attributing ISIS solely to the US and negating the role played by neglect from the Iraqi government (and abuse by Shiite militias) towards Sunni Arab areas not also looking at events in a vacuum? How is overlooking the actions of Iranian allies and proxies to allow you to paint Iran as a force for good that has not contributed in causing the deaths of hundreds of thousands and creating millions of refugees not looking at things in a vacuum? I actually started my post by saying they weren't a force for good. I agree that all the things you have said are bad, but I was trying to figure out if there was some enormous blind spot in my understanding that somehow explained why they are a pariah state while the other three aren't, and it doesn't really seem like there is, as you acknowledged in your first post. Basically, their reputation in the US seems to be entirely based on their reaction to the US loving things up for them 1979-present and not due to any sort of widely-condemned or easily-attributable human-rights violations or anything of that ilk (not to say that their treatment of protesters or whatever things they have done via cats'-paws in the Syrian conflict aren't, just that in terms of things that can be conclusively pinned to them they aren't notorious villains). They even seemed to have stuck with the nuclear treaty obligations until Trump took office and hosed it up, so as far as being convinceable by international consensus they seem much more amenable than KSA, Israel, or Turkey who have all laughed off condemnations.
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Jan 8, 2020 21:17
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