|
Darth Walrus posted:I mean, can you honestly tell me that there’s a better source on the intentions of the Commander-in-Chief of the US Armed Forces than Fox News? I can't tell if you're trying to be mega-ironic, but yes, there are much better sources of information about the movements of large US military bombers than Fox News. I don't know whether Iran would have this kind of intel, but Russia sure would. No one is firing at passenger jetliners because of a Fox News tweet, and if you believe that and aren't trying to make some stupid joke, then ????. They were on high alert anyway. No one sitting in the AA got a command from higher up to fire on the jetliner, and some grunt low level officer sitting at the AA battery is not going to be reading Sean Hannity's tweets and decide, on that "intel", to fire on a jet that shows up on his radar.
|
#
?
Jan 9, 2020 21:55
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 27, 2024 00:09 |
|
|
How are u posted:How could it not be an accident? The Iranians are not mustache-twirling villains. Why the gently caress would they do it intentionally? Nothing should be ruled out until evidence allows doing so. Russians probably didn't intend to shoot down MH17, but calling that an accident would belittle the crime, and until Russians start cooperating with the investigation the suspicion remains that they 100% intended to destroy an airliner. Anyway it remains to be seen if Iranians will let independent investigators to scrutinize the events, if not then it may be a long time before we find out the precise chain of events. It also remains to be seen if any commanders will face punishment or if some low level scape goat is hanged for this.
|
|
#
?
Jan 9, 2020 22:00
|
|
|
How are u posted:I think Iran has played the hand Trump dealt them about as well as you could possibly do. I also think that the -actual- revenge is going to be coming sometime in the future, and I would expect it to be oriented to hurt Trump in particular over the American people in general. Part of that revenge could be related to election interference, or providing information about Trump's illegal activities abroad that is hidden from the broader public at the moment. Not that it would be enough, but it could land him in jail when all is said and done and destroy his name forever. Which would be the worst thing you could do to him honestly.
|
|
#
?
Jan 9, 2020 22:03
|
|
|
Darth Walrus posted:So, uh, it looks like Iran shot down that plane because Sean Fuckin’ Hannity announced that B-52s (which have similar radar profiles to airliners) were on their way to strike Tehran. When has Seth loving Abramson ever been a reliable source on anything?
|
|
#
?
Jan 9, 2020 22:06
|
|
|
CNN is now saying they have a video of the plane getting hit by a missile. I can't find the video on the CNN website but LiveLeak has it: https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=u3CLB_1578595454 So that definitely appears to be an explosion in the sky. Also it looks like a few other missiles were in the sky already (which might explain why someone was filming) and I believe I heard reports already that 3 AA missiles were fired that night.
|
|
#
?
Jan 9, 2020 22:18
|
|
|
We did our usual thing with it: https://twitter.com/bellingcat/status/1215354416951365632 https://twitter.com/bellingcat/status/1215360000295653379 https://twitter.com/bellingcat/status/1215380266740584449 The New York Times also spoke with the person who filmed it.
|
|
#
?
Jan 9, 2020 22:22
|
|
|
Mr Luxury Yacht posted:How reliable/jammable is GLONASS anyway? Given I'm assuming they don't use GPS otherwise the US would be degrading the hell out of it. Somewhat less reliable than GPS from what I’ve heard. They could still use GPS in normal circumstances because the signal can’t be selectively degraded for any given receiver. The military can choose to encrypt the signal but that would screw up GPS for literally everyone who doesn’t have the key (e.g. all civilians) so they wouldn’t do that short of WW3.
|
|
#
?
Jan 9, 2020 22:25
|
|
|
Yep, they shot it down.
|
|
#
?
Jan 9, 2020 22:31
|
|
|
Morbus posted:The uranium in a reactor is not enriched enough for a weapon. However, operating a reactor with uranium fuel (regardless of enrichment) gradually transmutes some of the abundant U-238 into Pu-239 and Pu-240. thx for the knowledge drop.
|
|
#
?
Jan 9, 2020 22:31
|
|
|
Darth Walrus posted:So, uh, it looks like Iran shot down that plane because Sean Fuckin’ Hannity announced that B-52s (which have similar radar profiles to airliners) were on their way to strike Tehran. loooool at taking a Seth Abramson tweet thread at face value
|
|
#
?
Jan 9, 2020 22:35
|
|
|
Brown Moses posted:We did our usual thing with it: That is pretty convincing. It didn't seem like a launch would've gone unnoticed. Well done!
|
|
#
?
Jan 9, 2020 23:42
|
|
|
Considering it takes time and is highly visible to move military assets into place for a missile strike it seems pretty likely that the US was watching basically everything that the Iranians were doing via satellite that night.
|
|
#
?
Jan 9, 2020 23:45
|
|
|
With MH17 the US SBIRS satellite tracked the flight path of the rocket from the launch site to the aircraft, so they certainly can track these things.
|
|
#
?
Jan 9, 2020 23:52
|
|
|
Those poor people. No way Iran admits this.
|
|
#
?
Jan 10, 2020 00:34
|
|
|
Increasingly probable Iran brought that plane down. What impact to the regime? I heard that the Iran Air shoot down played a role in Khomenei working with the UN to end the Iran Iraq war.
|
|
#
?
Jan 10, 2020 00:51
|
|
|
Rip Testes posted:Increasingly probable Iran brought that plane down. What impact to the regime? I heard that the Iran Air shoot down played a role in Khomenei working with the UN to end the Iran Iraq war. It would be hilarious if this brings them to the table and part of the agreement means getting troops out of Iraq. Trump gets to bring some troops home and Iran gets a win.
|
|
#
?
Jan 10, 2020 00:53
|
|
|
Rip Testes posted:Increasingly probable Iran brought that plane down. What impact to the regime? I heard that the Iran Air shoot down played a role in Khomenei working with the UN to end the Iran Iraq war. It took very long time for US to pay Iran essentially the cost of an used Airbus for the downed Iran flight 655.
|
|
#
?
Jan 10, 2020 01:01
|
|
|
If the Iranians are still basing a lot of their grievance on Iran Flight 655 methinks now might be a great time for them to bury that particular hatchet.
|
|
#
?
Jan 10, 2020 01:06
|
|
|
Fojar38 posted:If the Iranians are still basing a lot of their grievance on Iran Flight 655 methinks now might be a great time for them to bury that particular hatchet. If we hadn't assassinated an Iranian general those people would likely be alive.
|
|
#
?
Jan 10, 2020 01:20
|
|
|
Mr Luxury Yacht posted:How reliable/jammable is GLONASS anyway? Given I'm assuming they don't use GPS otherwise the US would be degrading the hell out of it. If the guys are aiming to just miss you as a warning, perhaps degrading their precision isn't the best idea.
|
|
#
?
Jan 10, 2020 01:21
|
|
|
RandomBlue posted:If we hadn't assassinated an Iranian general those people would likely be alive. Yes, everyone let's have a moment of silence for the real victims here: The Iranian military
|
|
#
?
Jan 10, 2020 01:23
|
|
|
Fojar38 posted:Yes, everyone let's have a moment of silence for the real victims here: The Iranian military Amazingly hot take on some poo poo I didn't say.
|
|
#
?
Jan 10, 2020 01:26
|
|
|
RandomBlue posted:Amazingly hot take on some poo poo I didn't say. Iran, via negligence, murdered 176 people who had absolutely nothing to do with their conflict. You are saying that the Americans killing a military combatant 5 days earlier should be considered a mitigating factor in Iran's responsibility for the deaths of those 176 uninvolved civilians. That is outrageous.
|
|
#
?
Jan 10, 2020 01:33
|
|
|
So has Iran issued any new statement about all this yet?
|
|
#
?
Jan 10, 2020 01:42
|
|
|
Fojar38 posted:Iran, via negligence, murdered 176 people who had absolutely nothing to do with their conflict. You are saying that the Americans killing a military combatant 5 days earlier should be considered a mitigating factor in Iran's responsibility for the deaths of those 176 uninvolved civilians. Lol wtf, I have seen some bad faith arguments in my day but this is a new level
|
|
#
?
Jan 10, 2020 01:43
|
|
|
RandomBlue posted:If we hadn't assassinated an Iranian general those people would likely be alive. if soleimani had wheels he would have been a bike!
|
|
#
?
Jan 10, 2020 01:44
|
|
|
OctaMurk posted:Lol wtf, I have seen some bad faith arguments in my day but this is a new level Nothing in that post is factually incorrect.
|
|
#
?
Jan 10, 2020 01:44
|
|
Fojar38 posted:Nothing in that post is factually incorrect. If that's the rubric posting is graded on, can you point out the factual errors in this post please: RandomBlue posted:If we hadn't assassinated an Iranian general those people would likely be alive.
|
|
|
#
?
Jan 10, 2020 01:47
|
|
|
iran's air defence systems being on a hair trigger is probably not unrelated to the world's sole superpower with a major emphasis on air power assassinating their top general out of the blue, to be fair
|
|
#
?
Jan 10, 2020 01:48
|
|
|
Morbus posted:if soleimani had wheels he would have been a bike! That depends on the number of wheels and also he would need pedals
|
|
#
?
Jan 10, 2020 01:49
|
|
|
would also be a pretty grotesque bike
|
|
#
?
Jan 10, 2020 01:50
|
|
|
V. Illych L. posted:iran's air defence systems being on a hair trigger is probably not unrelated to the world's sole superpower with a major emphasis on air power assassinating their top general out of the blue, to be fair Perhaps it would have been responsible of Iran to close its airspace to commercial traffic during the few hours of action to stay on the safe side.
|
|
#
?
Jan 10, 2020 01:50
|
|
|
eighty-four merc posted:If that's the rubric posting is graded on, can you point out the factual errors in this post please: If Iran's pride didn't dictate that it respond to the death of Soleimani with ineffective missile strikes that could have provoked a response, hence necessitating hair trigger AA batteries, those people would also likely be alive.
|
|
#
?
Jan 10, 2020 01:52
|
|
|
Deteriorata posted:Perhaps it would have been responsible of Iran to close its airspace to commercial traffic during the few hours of action to stay on the safe side. perhaps. i know nothing about how airspace is administered though so i really couldn't comment to be clear, if the iranians shot down that plane that's on them, but saying that the elevated tensions factor into it is a perfectly valid point to make
|
|
#
?
Jan 10, 2020 01:53
|
|
|
Imagine a scenario, were an Iranian general was getting too powerful, and it's own regime wanted to get rid of him, via a conspiracy that suited all intelligence agencies, yeah probably Scooby Doo
|
|
#
?
Jan 10, 2020 01:54
|
|
|
Fojar38 posted:If Iran's pride didn't dictate that it respond to the death of Soleimani with ineffective missile strikes that could have provoked a response, hence necessitating hair trigger AA batteries, those people would also likely be alive. If the United States hubris didnt dictate that it bomb a foreign war hero that could have provoked a response, those people would also likely be alive. We could play this game all the way back to 1953 and before, what is the point you're trying to make? War is complicated?
|
|
#
?
Jan 10, 2020 01:55
|
|
|
OctaMurk posted:We could play this game all the way back to 1953 and before Oh you don't say? Maybe the blame for the result of pulling the trigger should be placed on the people who pulled the trigger perhaps?
|
|
#
?
Jan 10, 2020 01:56
|
|
|
djssniper posted:Imagine a scenario, were an Iranian general was getting too powerful, and it's own regime wanted to get rid of him, via a conspiracy that suited all intelligence agencies, yeah probably Scooby Doo Sounds easier to just put him on a flight to Toronto.
|
|
#
?
Jan 10, 2020 01:56
|
|
|
Deteriorata posted:Perhaps it would have been responsible of Iran to close its airspace to commercial traffic during the few hours of action to stay on the safe side. *closes airspace* A few hours pass while aircraft exit airspace. “launch the surprise!” All combatants and neutral countries know that airspace is a shitshow if things go hot over there. It’s not pretty. That does not excuse a negligent engagement, but it’s part of the risk anyone takes when slinging rounds while metal tubes full of civilians are in flight. Remember that airliners fly over Iraq and Syria every day.
|
|
#
?
Jan 10, 2020 01:56
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 27, 2024 00:09 |
|
|
mlmp08 posted:*closes airspace* The Iranians had been telegraphing they were going to do something for days, to say nothing of the fact that you can't prepare a missile strike nowadays without the Americans seeing it. Not to mention apparently the Iranians actually informed the targets beforehand. Surprise was never relevant.
|
|
#
?
Jan 10, 2020 01:58
|
|