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isn't that the Java Judge?
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Jan 17, 2020 06:27
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Bizarro Watt posted:It is unfortunate though that as much as I love my home state, I have resigned myself to the reality that I will probably never be able to afford to live there again. I hope y'all figure that out eventually. I have family back home that have working class salaries (50k-ish) and they really are struggling. I grew up in Sonoma county and its crazy that there are tent cities popping up there. I don't think people are honestly thinking about the scale of building we need to undertake.
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Jan 17, 2020 06:35
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Spazzle posted:I grew up in Sonoma county and its crazy that there are tent cities popping up there. I don't think people are honestly thinking about the scale of building we need to undertake. My wife is from Sonoma and visited there a few months ago and was telling me about how rough it was looking from when she grew up. It’s really sad, like I said earlier I travel for work, and homelessness is just getting so bad nation wide, even in smaller “big cities” like Cincinnati or something like South Bend, it’s so pervasive everywhere now.
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Jan 17, 2020 06:42
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Spazzle posted:I don't think people are honestly thinking about the scale of building we need to undertake.
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Jan 17, 2020 07:35
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Bizarro Watt posted:I moved to Texas several years ago (in the middle of nowhere) and by far the most annoying thing is when people volunteer how "socialist" and "liberal" policies are destroying California and then they remind me not to bring them here by voting Democratic. I'm happy to discuss Californian policies but generally they don't want to get more nuanced than that, especially when I suggest that maybe some of the policies contributing to the state's problems could be "conservative" rather than leftist. Mind you, liberal policies definitely are contributing to this state's issues depending on how you define the term. Just tell them Reagan practiced here before proceeding to gently caress up the rest of the country. It's not even that hyperbolic.
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Jan 17, 2020 07:51
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e.pilot posted:It’s really sad, like I said earlier I travel for work, and homelessness is just getting so bad nation wide, even in smaller “big cities” like Cincinnati or something like South Bend, it’s so pervasive everywhere now. The disinvestment from HUD in building new affordable housing for the last 40 years has been massive, about $70B inflation-adjusted dollars a year of affordable housing building for the last 40 years across the US, more here in CA from the state also having to scale back its contributions after prop 13. That coupled with the growing inequality over that time means the middle class has less and less money so why build anything for them. The scale of home-building that needs to be done now nationwide is absurd and probably can't be fixed without large federal investment.
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Jan 17, 2020 08:16
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fermun posted:The disinvestment from HUD in building new affordable housing for the last 40 years has been massive, about $70B inflation-adjusted dollars a year of affordable housing building for the last 40 years across the US, more here in CA from the state also having to scale back its contributions after prop 13. That coupled with the growing inequality over that time means the middle class has less and less money so why build anything for them. The scale of home-building that needs to be done now nationwide is absurd and probably can't be fixed without large federal investment. But handouts to developers 
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Jan 17, 2020 08:26
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Doc Hawkins posted:isn't that the Java Judge? Yep
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Jan 17, 2020 08:31
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FRINGE posted:Less than people think, if a hugely punitive vacancy tax were implemented. Vacancy isn't that high honestly. I saw a presentation from a researcher in the state treasurer's office a few months ago and she explained that most of the crunch now is because there was a 5 year period during the crisis when California basically had 0, if not negative, housing stock added and that was a moment when there were already shortages. We need like 4 million units just to match need, and that's not accounting for the impending losses from climate change removing coastlines and disasters like fires and earthquakes and the inevitable downturn slowing building construction further. This is why even houses in bumfuck parts of California are somehow 100's of thousands of dollars. Pretty much the only hope is that we hold out until the boomers are all dead because the next generations are smaller. Corpsing our way out of the hole is the only hope in my opinion.
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Jan 17, 2020 08:32
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I cannot wait for the marked improvement in everything once the boomers start to die off en masse.
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Jan 17, 2020 08:35
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sincx fucked around with this message at 05:49 on Mar 23, 2021 |
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Jan 17, 2020 08:59
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El Mero Mero posted:Vacancy isn't that high honestly. I saw a presentation from a researcher in the state treasurer's office a few months ago and she explained that most of the crunch now is because there was a 5 year period during the crisis when California basically had 0, if not negative, housing stock added and that was a moment when there were already shortages. Are they counting "purchased but unoccupied investment properties" as "non available housing stock"? I assume they are, in which case they are considering physically unoccupied properties as occupied. (And this allows them to push for developer handouts bacause of the "negative stock". As long as homes are being purchased as investments and not actual living spaces the problem will persist.) A massive punitive vacancy tax would drive banks and foreign investors out of the "collect houses like baseball cards" game.
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Jan 17, 2020 13:08
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FRINGE posted:Are they counting "purchased but unoccupied investment properties" as "non available housing stock"? I assume they are, in which case they are considering physically unoccupied properties as occupied. (And this allows them to push for developer handouts bacause of the "negative stock". As long as homes are being purchased as investments and not actual living spaces the problem will persist.) a vacancy tax is the first step; the eventual goal is putting alternatives to landlords in place, like building or neighborhood coops that must rent some % of their units but can't make a profit beyond paying off their own property taxes. and then eliminating landlording by first mandating lease-to-own and then down the road just blanket banning the ownership of residential units you dont live in imagine the cost of buying a house if the only people you had to compete with on price were other people who wanted to live in the unit
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Jan 17, 2020 13:23
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The Glumslinger posted:But handouts to developers Yeah there is entirely ways to do this without giving money to the people who created the problem, but being good is hard and I need to run for reelection
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Jan 17, 2020 18:06
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FRINGE posted:Are they counting "purchased but unoccupied investment properties" as "non available housing stock"? I assume they are, in which case they are considering physically unoccupied properties as occupied. (And this allows them to push for developer handouts bacause of the "negative stock". As long as homes are being purchased as investments and not actual living spaces the problem will persist.) I'm pretty sure they didn't consider occupancy in their numbers. They're just looking at construction/land use numbers from city/county reporting and comparing that to the census demographics of the state to calculate the need. The assumption is that all of those units are being utilized AND, even with that unrealistic assumption, the state is in the hole millions of units. E: also to clarify, housing stock is now being added (it only stopped during the downturn) but it's still being added very slowly relative to the size of the need.
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Jan 17, 2020 19:49
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https://twitter.com/akoseff/status/1218251952959545344 They're going to do some parliamentary maneuvers to keep SB50 away from the committee that killed it last year to make it easier for it to get a floor vote
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Jan 17, 2020 20:28
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I went back and found the presentation. She said her office is barred from forcasting/predicting a recession, but we're extremely overdue. It was from the finance office actually. The housing bits are:  (Housing drives the cost inflation)  (New housing units aren't even close to filling the gap created during the downturn. We never recovered. Also the spike in demolitions was because of this past fire season burning down whole towns)  (The only way to live in California is by stacking people up like cordwood and having multiple families in one home) El Mero Mero fucked around with this message at 20:43 on Jan 17, 2020 |
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Jan 17, 2020 20:38
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Spazzle posted:I grew up in Sonoma county and its crazy that there are tent cities popping up there. I don't think people are honestly thinking about the scale of building we need to undertake. For Sonoma specifically, keep in mind a significant amount of the largest city burned down and that decreases stock, reducing vacancy and making homelessness even worse. The local paper is full of how the residents who lost their homes keep getting screwed by contractors, while a mixed use project near my old home has been effectively cancelled because the developer feels the fires have increased the cost of materials and made a labor shortage. It’s hard to develop anything new when all hands are rebuilding what was already lost (and sometimes with lovely results.)
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Jan 17, 2020 20:58
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UC Berkley underemployed over 1000 TA's to avoid paying them benefits, they unionized, and now Berkley has lost the arb case and owe them millions in back pay.
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Jan 17, 2020 21:09
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Sydin posted:UC Berkley underemployed over 1000 TA's to avoid paying them benefits, they unionized, and now Berkley has lost the arb case and owe them millions in back pay. Good. El Mero Mero fucked around with this message at 21:24 on Jan 17, 2020 |
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Jan 17, 2020 21:21
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Craptacular! posted:For Sonoma specifically, keep in mind a significant amount of the largest city burned down and that decreases stock, reducing vacancy and making homelessness even worse. The local paper is full of how the residents who lost their homes keep getting screwed by contractors, while a mixed use project near my old home has been effectively cancelled because the developer feels the fires have increased the cost of materials and made a labor shortage. It’s hard to develop anything new when all hands are rebuilding what was already lost (and sometimes with lovely results.) Huge fires like this are going to continue to put tremendous pressure on the housing market in a very localized way. The Camp Fire destroyed 11% of my county's housing stock in one day and there are a lot of other vulnerable foothill towns like Placerville and Grass Valley that could be next. When you look at the diaspora patterns you see that most people don't have the means or inclination to move very far from home, so when GV goes up in flames Yuba City and Auburn will suddenly have several thousand new residents and nowhere to put them.
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Jan 17, 2020 21:31
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Sydin posted:UC Berkley underemployed over 1000 TA's to avoid paying them benefits, they unionized, and now Berkley has lost the arb case and owe them millions in back pay. Pretty good victory for worker rights.
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Jan 17, 2020 21:34
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e.pilot posted:My wife is from Sonoma and visited there a few months ago and was telling me about how rough it was looking from when she grew up. And remember, we are at the peak of an economic boom right now. The level of social disruption that the next economic downturn causes is going to make 2008 and Occupy look like a cute test run. Sydin posted:UC Berkley underemployed over 1000 TA's to avoid paying them benefits, they unionized, and now Berkley has lost the arb case and owe them millions in back pay. As a UC Berkeley alumnus, gently caress UC Berkeley.
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Jan 17, 2020 23:03
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Tacier posted:Huge fires like this are going to continue to put tremendous pressure on the housing market in a very localized way. The Camp Fire destroyed 11% of my county's housing stock in one day and there are a lot of other vulnerable foothill towns like Placerville and Grass Valley that could be next. I think a certain amount of this problem is a small town mindset to wildfires. A few months ago this situation rose again and rather than saying “well that’s very far away, let’s hope it doesn’t spread” they evacuated everything in Santa Rosa outside of downtown and it’s critical care hospital, and smaller communities all the way to the ocean. And they did so in a very staggered and more orderly way. The big human migration out of the area wouldn’t have been a problem if PG&E hadn’t turned off power to most the places one would migrate to. The Tubbs Fire started out as a brush fire near Calistoga when everyone went to bed, and they woke up to find it at their doorsteps in the middle of the night. They would have lost the Fountaingrove mansions because that area has burned to a cinder twice now and you used to not be able to develop there for it until millionaires insisted, but they could have saved some burbs and a few more lives if they were a little more proactive. Craptacular! fucked around with this message at 23:29 on Jan 17, 2020 |
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Jan 17, 2020 23:23
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Craptacular! posted:For Sonoma specifically, keep in mind a significant amount of the largest city burned down and that decreases stock, reducing vacancy and making homelessness even worse. The local paper is full of how the residents who lost their homes keep getting screwed by contractors, while a mixed use project near my old home has been effectively cancelled because the developer feels the fires have increased the cost of materials and made a labor shortage. It’s hard to develop anything new when all hands are rebuilding what was already lost (and sometimes with lovely results.) Probably getting screwed by insurance too if it's like my grandmother's experience in trying to get the old cabin rebuilt after it burnt down in the fire near bass lake. They basically said that it had to be rebuilt right away, on a schedule, or they'd pay out only half, and we had to float costs before reimbursement, and basically get a lawyer to make sure everything got paid out. Anyone having to deal with that while their out of a house and without having resources to do so would be pretty hosed.
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Jan 18, 2020 00:24
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BeAuMaN posted:Probably getting screwed by insurance too if it's like my grandmother's experience in trying to get the old cabin rebuilt after it burnt down in the fire near bass lake. They basically said that it had to be rebuilt right away, on a schedule, or they'd pay out only half, and we had to float costs before reimbursement, and basically get a lawyer to make sure everything got paid out. Anyone having to deal with that while their out of a house and without having resources to do so would be pretty hosed. Same thing happened to my dad when his house burned down. Wouldn’t replace anything that was inside unless he rebought it and they’d reimburse him. Absolutely ridiculous.
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Jan 18, 2020 00:31
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At what point does the bottom fall out in this state? Our population growth last year was already the slowest in California history. There are only so many people set to inherit their parents property. Shantytowns just keep growing and there is zero political will to do anything about it. Environmental disaster is one possibility, I guess, but I feel we need truly apocalyptic events to make people want to pick up stakes and leave.
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Jan 18, 2020 00:40
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The bottom doesn't fall out of the state as long as it's still incredibly rich in natural resources like good soil and weather, has a diversified valuable economy (it does, do not be fooled by media attention solely on software and biotech), has a relatively liberal government, and is not literally deadly to live in. It's anybody's guess whether or how some or all of those things go away. Climate change has been mentioned but I think climate change is going to be fairly terrible for all of the US states, and that relatively speaking compared to many of them California will be better off and still one of the places people prefer to try to live in.
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Jan 18, 2020 00:49
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Sydin posted:UC Berkley underemployed over 1000 TA's to avoid paying them benefits, they unionized, and now Berkley has lost the arb case and owe them millions in back pay. yeah it owns basically the berkeley computer science department, one of the largest and richest and most prestigious CS departments in the country, shifted nearly entirely to hiring undergrads to be their TAs and refused to give them tuition waivers. the undergrads who have been organizing around this are incredible.
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Jan 18, 2020 01:07
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Soooo I shouldn't move to Placerville? Because the plan is to move to Placerville
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Jan 18, 2020 01:17
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Goodpancakes posted:Soooo I shouldn't move to Placerville? Because the plan is to move to Placerville How much do you like meth and hicks?
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Jan 18, 2020 01:40
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My cousins lived there when I was a kid. The best part about it that I remember is you could afford a nice plot of land on a working class salary and Tahoe was only 90 minutes away on a good day. A lot of their old friends are now strung out so I’m not surprised there’s a drug problem there.
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Jan 18, 2020 01:57
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My partner is very happy to not live there anymore, but my inlaws are there. It's nice that it's close to tahoe (heading up there tomorrow for snow) but they keep getting tweakers breaking into their shed and stuff like that.
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Jan 18, 2020 02:02
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Grass Valley/Nevada City are waaaaaay better and full of Bay Area exiles, so at least decent food and yoga studios. That area is severely due to get completely burned down like Paradise though because people like trees right next to their house "MY VIEWZ"
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Jan 18, 2020 02:54
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Craptacular! posted:For Sonoma specifically, keep in mind a significant amount of the largest city burned down and that decreases stock, reducing vacancy and making homelessness even worse. The local paper is full of how the residents who lost their homes keep getting screwed by contractors, while a mixed use project near my old home has been effectively cancelled because the developer feels the fires have increased the cost of materials and made a labor shortage. It’s hard to develop anything new when all hands are rebuilding what was already lost (and sometimes with lovely results.) A good chunk of the people in the Santa Rosa tent cities stretched out to the West of town are probably from the trailer park that was wiped out in the fire. I drove by that at Christmas, there were blue tarps along a good stretch of Occidental Road. The county has finally come to terms with the fact that large sums of money must be thrown at the problem, let's hope they're quick about it. A lot of the homes burned down in the Northern Santa Rosa suburbs were pretty expensive and had brand new trailers or mobile homes standing next to the ruins just a few weeks after the fire. I appreciate their determination to rebuild in place, but the wealthy neighborhoods are going to come back with mostly the same people on the same plots. The poor folks who lost trailers, apartments, or rented single-family homes ended up in shelters.
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Jan 18, 2020 03:39
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Goodpancakes posted:Soooo I shouldn't move to Placerville? Because the plan is to move to Placerville lol placerville, for when you're really craving that central valley feel but in the foothills Keyser_Soze posted:Grass Valley/Nevada City are waaaaaay better and full of Bay Area exiles, so at least decent food and yoga studios. That area is severely due to get completely burned down like Paradise though because people like trees right next to their house "MY VIEWZ" hopefully not before I manage to move out in the coming 1-2 years, but yeah this place is one giant fire waiting to happen
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Jan 18, 2020 04:06
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I drive through Placerville a couple times a year to/from Tahoe. What amazes me is how few roads appear to go in or out of Placerville. The 50 comes to an absolute crawl there no matter what traffic is like in the surrounding area. To the point where the last time up I just took the winding roads of 49/88 to avoid as much of it as I could.
Highbrow Slick fucked around with this message at 05:55 on Jan 18, 2020 |
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Jan 18, 2020 05:48
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mllaneza posted:A good chunk of the people in the Santa Rosa tent cities stretched out to the West of town are probably from the trailer park that was wiped out in the fire. I drove by that at Christmas, there were blue tarps along a good stretch of Occidental Road. The county has finally come to terms with the fact that large sums of money must be thrown at the problem, let's hope they're quick about it. The mobile home park that burned was a retirement community, most of the people in the shanty trail are unlikely to be from that. And Coffey Park (the major loss of homes) was more traditional middle class (in now expensive homes due to the market). Fountaingrove was the rich neighborhood. Mark West was sorta upper middle. The housing problem and the homeless issue are definitely related but both have other causes/issues that predate the fire.
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Jan 18, 2020 07:40
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Highbrow Slick posted:I drive through Placerville a couple times a year to/from Tahoe. What amazes me is how few roads appear to go in or out of Placerville. The 50 comes to an absolute crawl there no matter what traffic is like in the surrounding area. To the point where the last time up I just took the winding roads of 49/88 to avoid as much of it as I could. The traffic light certainly doesn't loving help, but i imagine it's because there's no space to put in on/offramps to main street from 50
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Jan 18, 2020 09:00
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it's because fifty is a highway that predates freeways; it was built under the highway-becomes-main-street model. most of the towns in nevada it goes through are like that too. cops love to set up speed traps and pull over anyone with out of state plates and i can't imagine many folks in placerville is chomping at the bit to cut a freeway through their town so tourists can have an easier drive through. i certainly wouldn't be
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Jan 18, 2020 13:44
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