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https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/dershowitz-nixon-gang-dc/
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Jan 21, 2020 05:55
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Scooter_McCabe posted:Of course winged baboons are just as likely to launch themselves out of my cavernous rear end in a top hat, take flight in search of a new original album by Oasis and find it. You can just say "monkeys are going to fly out of my butt" you ivory tower elitist.
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Jan 21, 2020 06:06
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Helen Highwater posted:Gohmert is a congressman and has no role in the Senate or its proceedings. I was making a joke about him being (supposedly) illiterate 
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Jan 21, 2020 13:03
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FizFashizzle posted:I was making a joke about him being (supposedly) illiterate  Sorry to do this again, but the Stennis Compromise, as it was colloquially known, was the idea that the Nixon people would have an "impartial third party" (namely, half-deaf Senator John Stennis) listen to the infamous White House tapes and make transcripts. Stennis would have the ability to "paraphrase" (read: whitewash) language that was embarrassing to Nixon on them. Bear this in mind: Stennis was not only old and half-deaf, he was on copious pain meds after getting mugged and shot earlier in the year. It was clear to many Americans what Nixon was doing.In return, the White House wanted an assurance from the special prosecutor's office (at the time Archibald Cox) that he would issue no more subpoenas for tapes. The scary thing, like I said, was that this was actually accepted by many Democrats because Stennis was such a respected elder statesman (old Mississippi racist though he was). If Cox had not told Nixon to shove it, then the Stennis Compromise might have become reality.
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Jan 21, 2020 13:53
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McConnell trying to railroad the impeachment trial and have it be a sham that gets over in a couple of days with no witnesses or evidence will backfire spectacularly. Acquitting Trump after a thorough trial, that holds up to public scrutiny, helps Trump - and we all know nothing in the evidence or witness testimony would change anyone's vote, or shift public opinion. Trying to cover things up makes Trump look guilty. Dragging the trial out for weeks probably hurts Democrats as the public get bored, and Trump gets to prance around saying he is busy doing the work of the people.
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Jan 21, 2020 14:14
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No one is going to change their minds based upon how Mitch McConnell runs the show. Let me pull your attention back to this:eke out posted:the long-term graph of this is pretty remarkable just because of how incredibly steady it is That’s throughout all of the House hearings and latest bombshells. There is practically no variance, and what variance there is shows Republicans becoming slightly against impeachment as the White House, GOP leadership, and Fox News screamed about how unfair it was. Everyone already has a position based on what they think of Trump. No amount of obvious chicanery is going to sway people; they’ll just fall back to “well the original impeachment was unjust so it’s only appropriate for us to be unjust in the opposite direction”. If there are hearings, John Bolton could stand on his desk and scream about how Trump is a dirty criminal who needs to be removed from office and three days later the red voters will have figured out an excuse for why Bolton is actually a secret liberal Deep Stater.
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Jan 21, 2020 14:52
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skeleton warrior posted:[Everybody already has a position... nothing will sway that] I would note: that graph I posted starts after all the initial big news broke. As it turns out, a lot of people WERE in fact swayed and never reverted to their original opinions (which is why the lack of variance is interesting to me, you'd think they might go back and forth but instead all those people who jumped on board "remove him from office" have pretty much stayed with us) -- it's just that no amount of hearings changed it, because it all happened when the initial bombshells came out. This is very easily visualized:  I don't think there's a good argument that nothing will change anyone's minds, just that it'll take big new revelations for minds to be changed further. eke out fucked around with this message at 15:02 on Jan 21, 2020 |
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Jan 21, 2020 14:59
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TyrantWD posted:McConnell trying to railroad the impeachment trial and have it be a sham that gets over in a couple of days with no witnesses or evidence will backfire spectacularly. Acquitting Trump after a thorough trial, that holds up to public scrutiny, helps Trump - and we all know nothing in the evidence or witness testimony would change anyone's vote, or shift public opinion. Trying to cover things up makes Trump look guilty. Dragging the trial out for weeks probably hurts Democrats as the public get bored, and Trump gets to prance around saying he is busy doing the work of the people. The range where it which it could "backfire spectacularly" or "hurt democrats" is like 3 points in the polling....
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Jan 21, 2020 15:16
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TyrantWD posted:McConnell trying to railroad the impeachment trial and have it be a sham that gets over in a couple of days with no witnesses or evidence will backfire spectacularly. Acquitting Trump after a thorough trial, that holds up to public scrutiny, helps Trump - and we all know nothing in the evidence or witness testimony would change anyone's vote, or shift public opinion. Trying to cover things up makes Trump look guilty. Dragging the trial out for weeks probably hurts Democrats as the public get bored, and Trump gets to prance around saying he is busy doing the work of the people.
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Jan 21, 2020 15:29
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Tibalt posted:I have pretty much the exact opposite analysis - Americans have been surprisingly bipartisan in viewing Trump's conduct as at least inappropriate. More reminders, consistently delivered over weeks, will just solidify the association in people's minds. The longer attention is paid to things like this, the more pressure on someone to break and reveal more incriminating information - Parnas being the current example. And it's hard to say whether Americans will care about the legitimacy of the Senate trial, but the opposite of outrage isn't support, it's indifference. I suspect that "trial" phrasing is creating expectations in the American public, and "sham trial" is going to be unpopular. Jamming a sham trial through isn't going to stop someone like Parnas from testifying in the house. Transparently scuttling the trial without any evidence means any major revelations that come out after are hung around the GOP's neck.
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Jan 21, 2020 15:47
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Dapper_Swindler posted:what the gently caress are you even talking about? ImpAtom posted:I feel like saying that 0.1-0.2% of people are not familiar with what is going on with Donald Trump is pretty goddamn dumb. Even if you're a Casual Political Person it's kinda hard to miss "oh hey we almost a war" You should check the approval ratings charts: This stuff isn't moving the needle at all. And, in fact, Trump is pretty popular now compared to the beginning of his presidency.  And most Trumpists aren't going to accept the notion of "oh hey we almost had a war".
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Jan 21, 2020 15:56
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When does this clown circus of a Senate trial begin?
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Jan 21, 2020 15:56
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Gatts posted:When does this clown circus of a Senate trial begin? Technically today, there are some procedural votes beginning shortly iirc.
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Jan 21, 2020 16:08
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Gatts posted:When does this clown circus of a Senate trial begin?
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Jan 21, 2020 16:12
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mcmagic posted:The range where it which it could "backfire spectacularly" or "hurt democrats" is like 3 points in the polling.... I think an exhaustive trial that crosses over into tedium and becomes so boring that even the media are having trouble staying engaged, that then ends in acquittal, could swing the impeachment numbers underwater and have the Democrats come out of this, weaker than they went in. A quick cover up signifies to the average independent, who isn't hooked on news, that the GOP had something to hide, and maybe the Democrats were on to something.
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Jan 21, 2020 16:18
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Lambert posted:You should check the approval ratings charts: This stuff isn't moving the needle at all. And, in fact, Trump is pretty popular now compared to the beginning of his presidency. "pretty popular now" is a pretty curious statement to make considering he's at 42%
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Jan 21, 2020 16:24
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What does "compared to" mean? Can't figure thise one out.
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Jan 21, 2020 16:26
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TyrantWD posted:McConnell trying to railroad the impeachment trial and have it be a sham that gets over in a couple of days with no witnesses or evidence will backfire spectacularly. Acquitting Trump after a thorough trial, that holds up to public scrutiny, helps Trump - and we all know nothing in the evidence or witness testimony would change anyone's vote, or shift public opinion. Trying to cover things up makes Trump look guilty. Dragging the trial out for weeks probably hurts Democrats as the public get bored, and Trump gets to prance around saying he is busy doing the work of the people. While this post would make absolutely perfect sense in a regular world, a meteor hit the Earth in November of 2016 as a direct result of the Cubs winning the World Series and we're all in hell now. The Access Hollywood tape should have been the first indication that he's bulletproof. Sure, you can hit him but like a god drat cockroach he just won't die (figuratively. I'm not advocating violence. Hi, FBI!).
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Jan 21, 2020 16:28
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Taerkar posted:"pretty popular now" is a pretty curious statement to make considering he's at 42% Yeah but he's higher now than when he won in 2016.
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Jan 21, 2020 16:28
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eke out posted:I would note: that graph I posted starts after all the initial big news broke. Agreed on that, I guess where I disagree is whether McConnell rigging the trial counts as "big new revelations". I don't think it will. And on this: TyrantWD posted:I think an exhaustive trial that crosses over into tedium and becomes so boring that even the media are having trouble staying engaged, that then ends in acquittal, could swing the impeachment numbers underwater and have the Democrats come out of this, weaker than they went in. A quick cover up signifies to the average independent, who isn't hooked on news, that the GOP had something to hide, and maybe the Democrats were on to something. I don't think there are many independents or people not plugged in. Each of these polling aggregates has maybe 5% 'no opinion' and you're not going to have any non-bombshell event drive half of them to have an opinion. Unless some smoking gun pops up, neither a short and obviously rigged or a long and tedious trial are actually going to change people's opinions on whether Trump should be impeached.
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Jan 21, 2020 16:31
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mcmagic posted:Yeah but he's higher now than when he won in 2016. Only hated by most instead of reviled by even more. Also he was higher when he won. He's around 47/42 at the start of the chart.
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Jan 21, 2020 16:37
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Djarum posted:The real question is how and when the GOP will pivot. They have to at a certain point, even with electoral math they will or likely have started to decline. Trump is the exact worst candidate to stem that decline but the perfect person to push away from and then attempt to rebrand and engage other demographics. The GOP has likely lost the Latino vote for generations, which is quite amazing since Bush Jr. did a frankly amazing job reaching out to them. By some accounts that was responsible for his re-election. I am not sure where they can go to make any inroads at. They are not going to pivot, they are going to double down on gerrymandering and voter suppression where they currently hold the power to do so, and rely on their control of the courts to stymie any legal remedy to such. This is why 2020 is so incredibly goddamn important.
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Jan 21, 2020 16:37
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lol: https://twitter.com/stevenportnoy/status/1219626341982769152
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Jan 21, 2020 16:39
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The Post spells out the latest rules proposal. #MidnightMitch is trending.quote:How Mitch McConnell’s proposed Senate trial will work
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Jan 21, 2020 16:47
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Taerkar posted:Only hated by most instead of reviled by even more. That graph started at inauguration, not the 2016 election.
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Jan 21, 2020 17:02
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mcmagic posted:That graph started at inauguration, not the 2016 election. Yeah, he was at around 38% approval when he won in November.
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Jan 21, 2020 17:11
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TyrantWD posted:Yeah, he was at around 38% approval when he won in November. Yea, he can easily win at 42%. This is a good idea: https://twitter.com/DavidJollyFL/status/1219657214383796226 mcmagic fucked around with this message at 17:37 on Jan 21, 2020 |
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Jan 21, 2020 17:15
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TyrantWD posted:Yeah, he was at around 38% approval when he won in November. "Dems out of control, trying to make the president waste time with this circus instead of leading the nation." It's easy to spin.
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Jan 21, 2020 17:45
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Could Dems/Schumer put every single trial rule to a vote individually? Make every Republican go on record as voting for these pretty flagrantly awful and biased trial rules.
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Jan 21, 2020 17:52
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mcmagic posted:Yea, he can easily win at 42%. Can you 5th in an impeachment proceeding? I mean, it's not a normal criminal trial. I know his lawyers are on record as saying him testifying on basically anything is essentially a perjury trap because the man can't help but lie about literally everything.
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Jan 21, 2020 17:53
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It's not his approval rating that will get him reelected, it's the fact that the candidate will be Biden. Another it's my turn candidate that will lose to trump. He's sure to get in when noone knows who 'other' actually is.
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Jan 21, 2020 17:54
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mcmagic posted:Yea, he can easily win at 42%. loving finally this idea is getting traction. Don’t know why it took so long
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Jan 21, 2020 17:55
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TyrantWD posted:Yeah, he was at around 38% approval when he won in November. I don't think it's valid to compare approval numbers from before he took office to number after everyone has had to live with him for years But not Giuliani?!
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Jan 21, 2020 17:59
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mcmagic posted:https://twitter.com/costareports/status/1219399171515592705
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Jan 21, 2020 18:02
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Munkeymon posted:But not Giuliani?! he's not a member of the legal team representing trump in the impeachment trial
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Jan 21, 2020 18:07
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InsertPotPun posted:sorry, why do people think bolton, a career toady, would do anything but be a toady? Hope that a normal crime/war crime split will cause him to expose the former because there wasn't enough of the later.
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Jan 21, 2020 18:10
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PIZZA.BAT posted:loving finally this idea is getting traction. Don’t know why it took so long IDK if "one guy posted it on Twitter" is traction.... InsertPotPun posted:sorry, why do people think bolton, a career toady, would do anything but be a toady? I don't think Bolton is actually a career toady. He's a fundamentalist ideologue and a true believer.
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Jan 21, 2020 18:18
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skeleton warrior posted:Everyone already has a position based on what they think of Trump. No amount of obvious chicanery is going to sway people; they’ll just fall back to “well the original impeachment was unjust so it’s only appropriate for us to be unjust in the opposite direction”. If there are hearings, John Bolton could stand on his desk and scream about how Trump is a dirty criminal who needs to be removed from office and three days later the red voters will have figured out an excuse for why Bolton is actually a secret liberal Deep Stater. Tangential thought: if somehow Bolton did testify, I would imagine that the Tucker Carlson-style anti-neocon line would become the Fox talking point of the week. I wonder if that would substantially shift the Republican electorate's opinions. No because Fox would pivot away from that the second Bolton left the public consciousness.
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Jan 21, 2020 18:21
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Zotix posted:It's not his approval rating that will get him reelected, it's the fact that the candidate will be Biden. Another it's my turn candidate that will lose to trump. He's sure to get in when noone knows who 'other' actually is. I'd say that's more likely if someone like Sanders wins, they can play the socialism card out the rear end with that one. We all hate Biden but the fact is more people who dont pay attention to dead internet comedy forums vote than the ones who do, thems the breaks  I'll vote for whoever, but Team Biden could absolutely build momentum for democrats with the 'Trump's so scared of me running he almost got impeached from digging up dirt on me, let's take him down!'
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Jan 21, 2020 18:28
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Parrotine posted:I'd say that's more likely if someone like Sanders wins, they can play the socialism card out the rear end with that one. We all hate Biden but the fact is more people who dont pay attention to dead internet comedy forums vote than the ones who do, thems the breaks that and biden would probably have an easier time getting rinos and dinos. i dont care for biden(more of bernie person) but i get his appeal to various people. personally i think all of the front runners have different good paths to victory but this isnt the thread for it. Dapper_Swindler fucked around with this message at 18:34 on Jan 21, 2020 |
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Jan 21, 2020 18:31
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