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SpaceCadetBob
Dec 27, 2012
So any chance that they are being really dumb and drastically under reporting their infection numbers while more accurately reporting the death toll?

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kazr
Jan 28, 2005

They are without a doubt under reporting both

SpaceCadetBob
Dec 27, 2012

kazr posted:

They are without a doubt under reporting both

I mean yeah I don’t doubt it either. kind of makes hanging on all these numbers kinda pointless though.

Polo-Rican
Jul 4, 2004

emptyquote my posts or die
WATCH CHINA START A loving PLAGUE


DON'T MAKE THOM ANGRY!
click here for the NMP3s! faq

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

"off to play bingo" is the kamikaze of our generation

Homeless Friend
Jul 16, 2007
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=85456FmaSh4

NoNotTheMindProbe
Aug 9, 2010
pony porn was here

SpaceCadetBob posted:

So any chance that they are being really dumb and drastically under reporting their infection numbers while more accurately reporting the death toll?

They're only reporting deaths of people that were diagnosed with the virus beforehand. They're not testing dead people after the fact for the disease.

Vishass
Feb 1, 2004

Notorious R.I.M. posted:

liberating the united states of america


Like how much of the chinese government is over 60? How much of every government is over 60?

fits my needs
Jan 1, 2011

Grimey Drawer

SpaceCadetBob posted:

So any chance that they are being really dumb and drastically under reporting their infection numbers while more accurately reporting the death toll?


https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1221592101445668865?s=20

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

I remember the last ebola outbreak looking all scary and exponential, and thinking that hundreds of thousands if not millions could die. But they got it under control pretty well. R0 was below 2 in most places lol. Although on the other fatality rate was like 40% so there's that... This would be killing fewer people as % of infected but that's hardly great news if literally everyone gets infected.

Vishass
Feb 1, 2004

SpaceCadetBob posted:

So any chance that they are being really dumb and drastically under reporting their infection numbers while more accurately reporting the death toll?

All the numbers are probably made up but they couldn't possibly be reporting the true infection numbers as for a lot of people (wild assumption but vast majority) it just hits you like a lovely flu bug and you wait it out at home. The reported numbers are the folks so bad off they felt like going to the hospital and got tested.

Sheng-Ji Yang
Mar 5, 2014




lol

SKULL.GIF
Jan 20, 2017


mobby_6kl posted:

I remember the last ebola outbreak looking all scary and exponential, and thinking that hundreds of thousands if not millions could die. But they got it under control pretty well. R0 was below 2 in most places lol. Although on the other fatality rate was like 40% so there's that... This would be killing fewer people as % of infected but that's hardly great news if literally everyone gets infected.

Ebola is like way less contagious than most people think it is. You have to get the actual bodily fluids to catch it, and by the time people are spraying blood from their holes they're already about to kick it anyway.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

What does severe mean? On a ventilator/respirator? Because if so, won't the number of severe cases quickly outstrip the supply and then all of them will die without aid?

Lote
Aug 5, 2001

Place your bets

Charlz Guybon posted:

What does severe mean? On a ventilator/respirator? Because if so, won't the number of severe cases quickly outstrip the supply and then all of them will die without aid?

If you need to go to an icu for an extended period of time, the chances of leaving the hospital alive are like 50%. Usually people in the icu are listed as “critical”

Vishass
Feb 1, 2004


My guess is this is early in a big wave. for hospital cases it allegedly takes like 2-3 weeks to recover from and pass an all clear series of tests and it doesn't take nearly that long to kill you if that's the outcome

Edit : ten days no fever then pass like two swab tests

cargo cult
Aug 28, 2008

by Reene
oh no a scary graph

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy
NUMBER GO UP!!!

Vernii
Dec 7, 2006

Vishass posted:

What's the practical use of a bioweapon that takes at least 2 weeks to incapacitate a host and mostly kills a modest percentage of olds so it is insanely difficult to contain

Overwhelming healthcare systems and inducing mass panic and economic disruption. Chances are if it is a bioweapon it wouldn't be meant to be used solo, probably as part of a cocktail of other diseases.

Sheng-Ji Yang posted:

nefarious chinese politician: how about we intentionally inject our own population with a rapid spreading relatively low mortality virus to overload our hospitals, bring our economy to a screeching halt and cause a lost in trust in our leadership by foreign governmetns and our own people.... muahahaha. the perfect plan.


I don't think anyone discussing the bioweapon possibility is assuming it was deliberate. As we all know, China has an excellent safety culture and its government and scientific institutions are paragons of honesty and transparency.

Woodchip
Mar 28, 2010
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V4akq8oO8ik

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Lote posted:

If you need to go to an icu for an extended period of time, the chances of leaving the hospital alive are like 50%. Usually people in the icu are listed as “critical”

Well, they don't seem to be differentiating, so that's why I ask.

Budzilla
Oct 14, 2007

We can all learn from our past mistakes.

Bert Roberge posted:

Plague Inc is 60% off in one of the most poorly time video game sales in history.

They just got my cash.

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy
"China is lying about the severity of the disease because their government is bad" is a combination of orientalism and anti-communism.

If there's any government that you'd think was more likely to lie about a calamity, the US's treatment of Puerto Rico is right there.

Sheng-Ji Yang
Mar 5, 2014


cargo cult posted:

oh no a scary graph

dumb lowly cspam poster: wow this disease sure is spreading quickly... seems bad

smart big brain cc: haha dumb cspam always wrong. nice "scary graph" nerds!

succ
Nov 11, 2016

by Cyrano4747

gradenko_2000 posted:

"China is lying about the severity of the disease because their government is bad" is a combination of orientalism and anti-communism.

If there's any government that you'd think was more likely to lie about a calamity, the US's treatment of Puerto Rico is right there.

this guy still thinks china is communist

fits my needs
Jan 1, 2011

Grimey Drawer

gradenko_2000 posted:

"China is lying about the severity of the disease because their government is bad" is a combination of orientalism and anti-communism.

If there's any government that you'd think was more likely to lie about a calamity, the US's treatment of Puerto Rico is right there.

:ok:

Vishass
Feb 1, 2004

Vernii posted:

Overwhelming healthcare systems and inducing mass panic and economic disruption. Chances are if it is a bioweapon it wouldn't be meant to be used solo, probably as part of a cocktail of other diseases.



I don't think anyone discussing the bioweapon possibility is assuming it was deliberate. As we all know, China has an excellent safety culture and its government and scientific institutions are paragons of honesty and transparency.

That all makes sense if there wasn't a 100% chance it's eventually going to infect your own populace and leadership in a war scenario.

edit: yeah I know it wasn't deliberate. It's just lovely as a weapon unless you specifically are trying to kill a lot of old people and probably kids everywhere regardless of what flag they wave

DOCTOR ZIMBARDO
May 8, 2006
61,000 people died from the flu this year in the US, i'm guessing this won't be as bad as that (in the US)

Scrub-Niggurath
Nov 27, 2007

DOCTOR ZIMBARDO posted:

61,000 people died from the flu this year in the US, i'm guessing this won't be as bad as that (in the US)

saving this post

Homeless Friend
Jul 16, 2007
the doctor is in

fits my needs
Jan 1, 2011

Grimey Drawer
https://twitter.com/PDChina/status/1221538300923609092?s=20

Sheng-Ji Yang
Mar 5, 2014


i still think china might be able to contain this tbh. theyre definitely going all out to do it.

Scrub-Niggurath
Nov 27, 2007

Sheng-Ji Yang posted:

i still think china might be able to contain this tbh. theyre definitely going all out to do it.

I will be astounded if a carrier isn’t already in NYC

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy

Sheng-Ji Yang posted:

i still think china might be able to contain this tbh. theyre definitely going all out to do it.

as it turns out, being able to mobilize national resources for the public good at a moment's notice is useful in times like this!

Vernii
Dec 7, 2006

Vishass posted:

That all makes sense if there wasn't a 100% chance it's eventually going to infect your own populace and leadership in a war scenario.

edit: yeah I know it wasn't deliberate. It's just lovely as a weapon unless you specifically are trying to kill a lot of old people and probably kids everywhere regardless of what flag they wave

You may want to read up more on nuclear, biological, and chemical warfare because yea that's basically how it works. Strategies tend to be murderously indiscriminate. Generally the scenarios where these things would be purposefully deployed are the type where blowback is a tiny afterthought because the State using them doesn't expect to survive the exchange anyway.

Edit: this would also be making the assumption that if it is a weapon that it's a finished product and not something that was still under development.

Vernii fucked around with this message at 02:32 on Jan 27, 2020

Soy Division
Aug 12, 2004

it’s gonna take a serious cluster of infections outside of China for us to get reliable stats on this poo poo

gh0stpinballa
Mar 5, 2019

cargo cult is bappin the gently caress out and i love it unconditionally

Homeless Friend
Jul 16, 2007

gh0stpinballa posted:

cargo cult is bappin the gently caress out and i love it unconditionally

cargo cult is just a poor mans hamprince

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

SKULL.GIF posted:

Ebola is like way less contagious than most people think it is. You have to get the actual bodily fluids to catch it, and by the time people are spraying blood from their holes they're already about to kick it anyway.

also a lot of Ebola fatalities were less leaky than you would expect, they just died from immunoresponse boiling their brains

it liquifies way fewer innards than its usual portrayal

Goatse James Bond fucked around with this message at 02:33 on Jan 27, 2020

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TeenageArchipelago
Jul 23, 2013


new update on the virus:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=elizAugXVcI

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