Coronavirus 2021: I Threw Up On My Sheep

The Something Awful Forums > Archives > Comedy Goldmine > The Goodmine > Coronavirus 2021: I Threw Up On My Sheep

Ugly In The Morning: Jul 1, 2010; Pillbug

Der Shovel posted:

Not to argue, but generally out of a desire to know more and understand better:

Why not? I understand that accurate numbers are impossible to get in this situation (because China most likely can't detect 100% of cases accurately), but I would imagine that from this it follows that they are estimating the number of cases using scientific and statistical models and that these predictions can never be 100% accurate either.

Why would they not be underreporting the results of those estimates, in an effort to put on a more positive outlook and to try and suppress the severity of the situation? I would expect pretty much any government on the world to do that (instead of saying everything is turbo hosed and triggering mass panic, just say things are severe but not THAT bad), and especially the CCP who have literally been caught doing that very thing numerous times, and numerous times in this specific situation as well.

The R0 of this is not 1, it's somewhere in the 2.5+ range. This means that, typically, one sick person will get 2.5 or more other people sick. Those people will each get 2.5 more people sick, and so on. That means the "new cases" number should not be going up by a steady amount each day like it has been, the number of new cases should be getting much larger every day, as an exponential function- they're not even doing a good job of fudging the numbers. Blatantly fudging the numbers like that is more worrisome than just releasing a report that says "WE'RE hosed, BURY ME!" IMO.

# ? Feb 6, 2020 12:31

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# ? May 26, 2024 15:07

stephenthinkpad: Jan 2, 2020

If you only look at the Chinese number outside of Hubei, they should be pretty accurate and align with the oversea numbers. I will see if I can find an up to date chart and compare them myself.

I looked at Shanghai's number yesterday. There was about 120 infected (travelled from Wuhan) and 160ish infected with no Wuhan history. In other words, with x number of people from Wuhan, you get probably 1.5x to 2x additional 2nd generation infected. One can actually argue the 5 million people who left Wuhan before they shut down the city was no bad for the patients bcause sick people outside of Wuhan can get hospitalized and decent medical resource for treatment. If you are inside Wuhan, only the first 3? 5? thousands can be hospitalized.

# ? Feb 6, 2020 12:34

unpacked robinhood: Feb 18, 2013; by Fluffdaddy

Feeling bad for the dead, but in a 'gently caress china' kind of way

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

# ? Feb 6, 2020 12:39

Lambert: Apr 15, 2018; by Fluffdaddy; Fallen Rib

QuarkJets posted:

Morons, everyone knows that eating kimchi is the only protection against coronavirus

Didn't you read the thread?? It's juice and eating vegetables.

# ? Feb 6, 2020 12:43

Nurge: Feb 4, 2009; by Reene; Fun Shoe

I'm sick as gently caress and coughing so much I'm gonna have the raddest six pack next summer. In skeleton hell.

e: If I die I want my perma av to be a spinning gently caress CHINA.

Nurge fucked around with this message at 13:39 on Feb 6, 2020

# ? Feb 6, 2020 13:30

monkeytennis: Apr 26, 2007; Toilet Rascal

Why are they spraying disinfectant in the streets? Does the virus live in trees?

# ? Feb 6, 2020 13:34

McGavin: Sep 18, 2012

monkeytennis posted:

Why are they spraying disinfectant in the streets? Does the virus live in trees?

No why.

# ? Feb 6, 2020 13:46

Chrs: Sep 21, 2015

monkeytennis made the news

quote:

Third person in UK confirmed as having coronavirus and they have been taken to a specialist NHS centre

This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly. Please refresh the page for the fullest version.

Third coronavirus case confirmed in UK https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51398039

# ? Feb 6, 2020 14:31

PIZZA.BAT: Nov 12, 2016

Another case in the US too according to the map

# ? Feb 6, 2020 14:36

Fenarisk: Oct 27, 2005

I take this with a grain of salt but one of my patients has a wife working as an ICU nurse in Chicago where the husband and wife were noted as infected, with the latest news being they haven't reported the two grandkids also being infected (and having gone to school for several days before being quarantined), as well as the effects being much, much worse than is being reported.

# ? Feb 6, 2020 14:47

Saros: Dec 29, 2009; Its almost like we're a Bureaucracy, in space!

I set sail for the Planet of Lab Requisitions!!

Considering the symptoms seem to range from none to death in what way are they worse than reported? Also are you trying to say the kids have it or not?

# ? Feb 6, 2020 14:50

Fenarisk: Oct 27, 2005

Saros posted:

Considering the symptoms seem to range from none to death in what way are they worse than reported? Also are you trying to say the kids have it or not?

The nurse stated the kids do have it, and it wasn't caught for quarantine until several days into symptoms. The patient didn't go into detail of how it was worse though.

# ? Feb 6, 2020 14:57

Chrs: Sep 21, 2015

Apparently that third UK case is in Brighton

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...est-update-news

# ? Feb 6, 2020 15:02

Sunswipe: Feb 5, 2016; by Fluffdaddy

Are we shooting the infected yet?

# ? Feb 6, 2020 15:02

Saros: Dec 29, 2009; Its almost like we're a Bureaucracy, in space!

I set sail for the Planet of Lab Requisitions!!

Straits times reporting a case in Singapore with no known traceable infected contacts and no travel to China.

WELP.

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/coronavirus-singapore-confirms-two-more-cases-bringing-total-to-30

Saros fucked around with this message at 15:18 on Feb 6, 2020

# ? Feb 6, 2020 15:10

Owlofcreamcheese: May 22, 2005; Can't post for 9 years!; Buglord

Fenarisk posted:

I take this with a grain of salt but one of my patients has a wife working as an ICU nurse in Chicago where the husband and wife were noted as infected, with the latest news being they haven't reported the two grandkids also being infected (and having gone to school for several days before being quarantined), as well as the effects being much, much worse than is being reported.

I feel like a story about a goon's patient's wife's patient's wife's grandchildren is not a very reliable source. my uncle that works at nintendo mcdonalds told me mario has it and if you beat the game exactly 100 times mario will come out of the screen and give it to you.

# ? Feb 6, 2020 15:12

Fenarisk: Oct 27, 2005

Owlofcreamcheese posted:

I feel like a story about a goon's patient's wife's patient's wife's grandchildren is not a very reliable source. my uncle that works at nintendo mcdonalds told me mario has it and if you beat the game exactly 100 times mario will come out of the screen and give it to you.

Hence the grain of salt. Sorry he couldn't get his wife to violate HIPPA harder for you on the something awful forums.

# ? Feb 6, 2020 15:34

UnknownTarget: Sep 5, 2019

Uh....9.7 thousand confirmed cases in China to 27.4 thousand confirmed cases in 6 days?
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

# ? Feb 6, 2020 15:35

WalletBeef: Jun 11, 2005

Haramstufe Rot posted:

Here is my organizational analysis:

1. The CCP mishandled the current crisis because it is institutionally bad at such things. The CCP is a hierarchical bureaucracy, which means that lower ranks conform to decorum, "number goals" and misinformation vis-a-vis higher ranks, because that keeps the superiors happy. Related, the CCP is fascist, which means that there is no interest on any level to release information that would implicate higher ranks, in particular Xi himself. The higher it goes, the more equivalent these ranks become with the "goodness" and viability of the whole organization (viewed internally). The higher the rank, the more it (and even the person) acts as embodied principle and philosophy of China. China is, essentially, unable to blame anything on the actions of the subsequent higher rank in the hierarchy because that is essentially treason. Since China is unwilling to admit to any mistakes (again, in personal union with Xi), the following holds: Local governments do not want to release information, as responsibility can only fall on their actions alone, and even that is considered a personal affront to all other Chinese.
It is thus entirely reasonable to assume that any link in the chain of hierarchies tried to suppress the magnitude of the crisis until they got summarily supplanted by subsequent superiors.
And so, there was no effective reaction to the outbreak for two months.

2. The more the crisis grows, the stronger the reaction. In particular, the reaction now will probably be pretty strong. This because this crisis has reached the international stage. Blame will fall on Xi, and, because fascism, on China and everyone in it. The top ranks therefore will be willing to institute strong and immediate measures, while ALSO cheating the numbers. They will also be able to do so, as internal blame flows downwards, inasmuch as responsibility flows upwards the hierarchy, and everyone has an incentive to actually solve this crisis once the superior is involved! Once Xi is actually informed and involved, his inferiors will suddenly be surprisingly efficient and vigilant. Of course, Xi will still lie to the WHO as best as possible.
In the future, this will not change. Information gets played down until it can't. Then things get done.

Therefore, two things are probably true at the same time:

First, China has mishandled the current outbreak and put not only its population, but the entire world in peril.

Second, China has instituted gargantuan measures of containment that would not be possible elsewhere. It may or may not be able to contain the outbreak, but from a certain point onward, it may be argued that if there is a country (of the same technological standard) that could, then it would be China.

thank you for coming to my sociology ted talk

So basically what you're saying is that this is China's Chernobyl moment?

# ? Feb 6, 2020 16:00

mike12345: Jul 14, 2008; "Whether the Earth was created in 7 days, or 7 actual eras, I'm not sure we'll ever be able to answer that. It's one of the great mysteries."

rip to a good one

https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1225428566931718144

# ? Feb 6, 2020 16:01

stephenthinkpad: Jan 2, 2020

snake-salute.jpg

# ? Feb 6, 2020 16:03

Jamsta: Dec 16, 2006; Oh you want some too? Fuck you!

mike12345 posted:

rip to a good one

https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1225428566931718144

Yeah, he died of Coronavirus, after having his ventilator turned off by CCP officials

# ? Feb 6, 2020 16:03

Hopper: Dec 28, 2004; BOOING! BOOING!; Grimey Drawer

I think I am going to stock up on non-perishables a little. Not because of fear of corona but because this whole thing made me realize we simply don't have a reasonable amount of stock in general and you never know what could keep you from leaving your home for some time.

# ? Feb 6, 2020 16:14

Gearhead: Feb 13, 2007; The Metroid of Humor

UnknownTarget posted:

Uh....9.7 thousand confirmed cases in China to 27.4 thousand confirmed cases in 6 days?
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

They've been lying about the numbers since the start of this.

# ? Feb 6, 2020 16:14

Alan Smithee: Jan 4, 2005; A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...

Hopper posted:

I think I am going to stock up on non-perishables a little. Not because of fear of corona but because this whole thing made me realize we simply don't have a reasonable amount of stock in general and you never know what could keep you from leaving your home for some time.

Same. How many pizzas in a can is generally considered a week�s worth?

# ? Feb 6, 2020 16:16

Saros: Dec 29, 2009; Its almost like we're a Bureaucracy, in space!

I set sail for the Planet of Lab Requisitions!!

Ogantai posted:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALQTdCYGISw

Summary:

Only about 10% of infections in China are being detected.

The true number of new infections per day is probably about 50,000.

Doubling time is ~ 5 days.

The ones that aren't being reported are likely less severe.

The epidemic in Wuhan will probably peak in about a month.

The peak elsewhere in China will be a month or two after that.

The peaks outside China will vary according to the amount of connectivity to China.

50k cases/day :psypop:

# ? Feb 6, 2020 16:17

UnknownTarget: Sep 5, 2019

Gearhead posted:

They've been lying about the numbers since the start of this.

Yea but these are the *official* numbers, which is crazy.

That video gives me hope though - peak in about a month and a few peaks after that? Sounds like at least we're near the middle maybe?

# ? Feb 6, 2020 16:20

Nurge: Feb 4, 2009; by Reene; Fun Shoe

UnknownTarget posted:

Yea but these are the *official* numbers, which is crazy.

That video gives me hope though - peak in about a month and a few peaks after that? Sounds like at least we're near the middle maybe?

Well. The thing is even if the peak is in a month a doubling time of 5 days makes it... (runs out of fingers), real bad.

# ? Feb 6, 2020 16:27

PIZZA.BAT: Nov 12, 2016

Saros posted:

50k cases/day

that�s geometric growth for ya. also why the whole �idk the big deal flu kills so many more people� is such a garbage take

# ? Feb 6, 2020 16:28

Gearhead: Feb 13, 2007; The Metroid of Humor

UnknownTarget posted:

Yea but these are the *official* numbers, which is crazy.

That video gives me hope though - peak in about a month and a few peaks after that? Sounds like at least we're near the middle maybe?

For China, maybe. Funny how the US has had a lot of people hospitalized for flu that isn't the flu in the past month, ain't it? The ILI (influenza-like illness) numbers are weirdly high...

# ? Feb 6, 2020 16:35

PIZZA.BAT: Nov 12, 2016

Gearhead posted:

For China, maybe. Funny how the US has had a lot of people hospitalized for flu that isn't the flu in the past month, ain't it? The ILI (influenza-like illness) numbers are weirdly high...

link?

# ? Feb 6, 2020 16:36

Philonius: Jun 12, 2005

Nurge posted:

Well. The thing is even if the peak is in a month a doubling time of 5 days makes it... (runs out of fingers), real bad.

Yeah. If it's currently infecting 50k per day and doubling every 5 days, that's a cumulative 20 million infections in the next month.

# ? Feb 6, 2020 16:37

FlamingLiberal: Jan 18, 2009; Would you like to play a game?

Philonius posted:

Yeah. If it's currently infecting 50k per day and doubling every 5 days, that's a cumulative 20 million infections in the next month.

It�s plausible in a country of billions

# ? Feb 6, 2020 16:48

Nurge: Feb 4, 2009; by Reene; Fun Shoe

FlamingLiberal posted:

It�s plausible in a country of billions

It also means it's incredibly unlikely to actually peak within a month because there is literally nothing stopping it, unless the numbers are already several magnitudes larger than expected.

# ? Feb 6, 2020 16:52

just another: Oct 16, 2009; these dead towns that make the maps wrong now

CNN reporting that the Chinese whistleblower doctor had now died of coronavirus.

Edit: beaten whatevs

# ? Feb 6, 2020 16:52

Gearhead: Feb 13, 2007; The Metroid of Humor

PIZZA.BAT posted:

link?

This heat map is concerning. We're getting more people in hospitals for ILI than for the flu.

# ? Feb 6, 2020 16:54

Philonius: Jun 12, 2005

Gearhead posted:

This heat map is concerning. We're getting more people in hospitals for ILI than for the flu.

I don't see huge differences between the ILI heatmaps for previous years though. Usually around this time most states are in the red.

# ? Feb 6, 2020 17:03

UnknownTarget: Sep 5, 2019

Philonius posted:

I don't see huge differences between the ILI heatmaps for previous years though. Usually around this time most states are in the red.

EDIT: Nevermind that website has a dumb interface.

# ? Feb 6, 2020 17:05

Philonius: Jun 12, 2005

UnknownTarget posted:

EDIT: Nevermind that website has a dumb interface.

On second inspection, you're right. I had picked two random years to check and those happened to be high too, but looking at all data ILI levels are through the roof right now. Might still be unrelated to coronavirus though.

# ? Feb 6, 2020 17:08

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# ? May 26, 2024 15:07

Sound: Oct 18, 2004

What would happen if a rumor was started that surviving corona virus made you dick much bigger and let you gently caress for hours? Corona virus dick pills? Ground up corona bodies from the morgue to make tea? Small bags of phlegm from infected people to use like a balm?

# ? Feb 6, 2020 17:08

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