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The Turkish death toll of the clashes has risen to 8: https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1224352761346695168 And its striking how close Government forces are to Idlib City (twitter maps are always a bit dubious, but no denials from rebel twitter). I'm surprised there hasn't been more of a rebel defence/counterattack at Saraqib, if that falls Idlib city will more or less be on the front line. https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/1224394605434757128 https://twitter.com/Charles_Lister/status/1224339007837962240 https://twitter.com/CivilWarMap/status/1224387197459140611
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Feb 4, 2020 10:02
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mediadave posted:And its striking how close Government forces are to Idlib City (twitter maps are always a bit dubious, but no denials from rebel twitter). I'm surprised there hasn't been more of a rebel defence/counterattack at Saraqib, if that falls Idlib city will more or less be on the front line. Yeah, a lot of people have been confused about why the rebels haven't managed to pull together a counterattack. My best guess is that Russia's massive bombing campaign is making it hard to concentrate forces, particularly when morale must already be low after seeing the defenses fall apart so quickly. Erdogan's definitely angry, but there's still not any evidence of his willingness to provide rebels with more sophisticated weaponry than they've had before, which clearly hasn't been sufficient. His foreign minister seems to be making an effort to tone down the rhetoric too: https://twitter.com/DailySabah/status/1224621556816646144 At the end of the day, Turkey's the weaker party in any dispute with Russia, and I think they know the US isn't the reliable ally we used to be (in part because neither is Turkey), so they can't trust us to be around to bail them out if they miscalculate and pick a fight they can't finish. Plus Turkey's economic ties to Russia really are significant, so enduring some pain in the closing days of a war that was lost years ago makes more sense than suddenly riding to the rescue of defeated rebels Turkey abandoned back when they still had more fight left in them. I wish we were seeing more reporting on what's happening with the civilians fleeing these areas. My understanding is that the infrastructure just isn't there to adequately house them right now, and that it's dangerously cold in northern Syria right now.
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Feb 4, 2020 13:27
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I will never understand how the SAA keeps handing brand new MBTs the Russians give them directly to the rebels.
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Feb 4, 2020 14:58
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https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1224681723511832576
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Feb 4, 2020 15:30
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This seems like a bad idea. https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1224708253197766657 Turkish artillery seems to be actively targeting Syrian forces in Idlib again now too, though it remains to be seen how serious those efforts are. As Woofers tweeted yesterday, Turkish artillery could devastate SAA forces in the area pretty easily if they were really unleashed, but that could commit Turkey to a broader conflict than they're really interested in having. For their part, the regime seems to have focused their efforts on backfilling territory today, clearing the remainder of the territory abandoned by rebels to the southeast of Saraqib. I wonder if they're aiming for a broad encirclement of the city so they can try to avoid taking it on with Turkish forces inside. Alternately, if Turkey's going to make capturing the city impossible for now, they could just be gobbling up as much territory as they can in advance of the next cease fire.  My guess is that this round of fighting isn't over yet though.Edit: Russia says their base wasn't actually hit, but that there was shelling in the area. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 21:43 on Feb 4, 2020 |
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Feb 4, 2020 17:07
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Erdogan really ramped up the rhetoric today, saying the SAA needs to withdraw from the areas surrounding all Turkish observation points and return to the limits of the Sochi Agreement by the end of February or Turkey will force them to. Ringing them with Russian MPs seems like the obvious response, but I guess we'll have to see. On the ground, the regime continues to advance northward to the east of Saraqib, and to the west seems to be at least threatening a move toward Idlib city. https://twitter.com/WithinSyriaBlog/status/1225047362449571842 After early reports that the regime had captured Saraqib, it looks like they've only cut it off from Aleppo to the north. That still means they've nearly encircled the city, and the rebels seem to have fled, so the capture seems imminent unless Turkey does something. Or maybe the rebels didn't flee? Nobody knows wtf is going on. Also this thread is loving dead so I'm going to stop posting updates. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 21:52 on Feb 5, 2020 |
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Feb 5, 2020 13:45
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I appreciated the updates, but I can see how it would be a drag.
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Feb 6, 2020 10:03
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I can see why people have given up caring about the Syrian conflict. We're at the tail end of a nasty conflict where the 'bad guys' are at this point guaranteed to win, just being a matter of when - and the only people remaining who are fighting them are bad guys in their own way.
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Feb 6, 2020 10:40
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I for one am glad to see that the legitimate Syrian govt is finally liberating Idlib from Al Nusra and friends. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 6, 2020 11:20
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mediadave posted:I can see why people have given up caring about the Syrian conflict. We're at the tail end of a nasty conflict where the 'bad guys' are at this point guaranteed to win, just being a matter of when - and the only people remaining who are fighting them are bad guys in their own way. I had to bow out pretty early because it was just depressing as all hell. I wanted to be informed and have a good opinion on things but at some point I just had to stop for my own health.
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Feb 6, 2020 16:14
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thatfatkid posted:I for one am glad to see that the legitimate Syrian govt is finally liberating Idlib from Al Nusra and friends. shut the gently caress up
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Feb 6, 2020 17:58
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Sinteres posted:Also this thread is loving dead so I'm going to stop posting updates. I'd rather have a page full of threads of updates like this rather than 6 pages of slap fighting over *waves hands around wildly*
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Feb 6, 2020 19:19
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Were in the interwar period where each side is shoring up their respective positions. Turkey will launch another offensive soon. They want to annex half of syria and create a rump state within turkish influence. A russian microstate of tartus and latakia with the Assad fsmily as tje rules. The middle east is about to be redrawn. And when i say about to be i mean 10 year span not next week.
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Feb 6, 2020 19:47
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HelloSailorSign posted:I'd rather have a page full of threads of updates like this rather than 6 pages of slap fighting over *waves hands around wildly* I'm glad the slapfights have quieted down too, it just felt uncomfortably like talking to myself for a bit there. FWIW, the big news of today is that the regime did succeed in encircling Saraqib, and is in the process of entering and clearing it.
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Feb 6, 2020 19:48
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I appreciate the updates but I don’t have much to say at this point.
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Feb 6, 2020 19:52
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Sinteres posted:I'm glad the slapfights have quieted down too, it just felt uncomfortably like talking to myself for a bit there. I appreciate your posts, but I also don't really have much to contribute with respect to discussion.
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Feb 6, 2020 22:14
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Were in the interwar period where each side is shoring up their respective positions. Turkey will launch another offensive soon. They want to annex half of syria and create a rump state within turkish influence. A russian microstate of tartus and latakia with the Assad fsmily as tje rules. Whatever lines they end up drawing are going to be laughable in the face of climate change pressures and mass migration over the next 50+ years. I don't hold a lot of long term hope for the region.
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Feb 6, 2020 22:34
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How are u posted:Whatever lines they end up drawing are going to be laughable in the face of climate change pressures and mass migration over the next 50+ years. I don't hold a lot of long term hope for the region. Doesnt mean resourced cant be extracted. Syria will need turkish water to survive.
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Feb 6, 2020 22:44
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Sinteres posted:Nobody knows wtf is going on. Also this thread is loving dead so I'm going to stop posting updates. I like the updates, I just don't post much myself.
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Feb 6, 2020 23:13
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WoodrowSkillson posted:shut the gently caress up Umm wow that's not very nice 
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Feb 6, 2020 23:25
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What's the situation in Afghanistan these days? Western media tends to focus on the continuing chaos in the Pashtun and Pakistan-adjacent south; are things any better in the North and Northeast?
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Feb 7, 2020 00:13
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Yes, it's like a lava lamp.
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thatfatkid posted:Umm wow that's not very nice Neither is Assad.
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Feb 7, 2020 00:55
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PittTheElder posted:What's the situation in Afghanistan these days? Western media tends to focus on the continuing chaos in the Pashtun and Pakistan-adjacent south; are things any better in the North and Northeast? Taliban has prevailed against the forces of western imperialism.
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Feb 7, 2020 01:03
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steinrokkan posted:Taliban has prevailed against the forces of western imperialism. Yeah, basically. It'd be cool if the US tried to negotiate for something like not massacring the Hazara again once the Taliban are back in power, but instead they'll opt for mineral and opiu-agricultural rights or perhaps something even stupider.
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Feb 7, 2020 01:07
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Zedhe Khoja posted:Yeah, basically. It'd be cool if the US tried to negotiate for something like not massacring the Hazara again once the Taliban are back in power, but instead they'll opt for mineral and opiu-agricultural rights or perhaps something even stupider. At least with opium rights, there is a chance that the Talibans would keep their word.
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Feb 7, 2020 01:34
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Zedhe Khoja posted:Yeah, basically. It'd be cool if the US tried to negotiate for something like not massacring the Hazara again once the Taliban are back in power, but instead they'll opt for mineral and opiu-agricultural rights or perhaps something even stupider. Would the Taliban even negotiate regarding the Hazara? They've never shied away from doing things that piss off the neighbours. Saying "please don't massacre the Hazara we'll pay you" might just make them massacre harder
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Feb 7, 2020 01:38
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Sinteres posted:I'm glad the slapfights have quieted down too, it just felt uncomfortably like talking to myself for a bit there. the slapfights have only quieted down because there's nothing in the news right now. As soon as any big news hits the thread will be flooded by idiots again hyperventilating about WWIII because this time, for real, Trump is going to go to war with Iran. There's basically nobody left posting in this thread who can actually hold an interesting conversation, so there's not much point putting real effort into it. I used to try and post updates about places like Somalia and Libya and Afghanistan that don't get much mainstream coverage, but I was always met with deafening silence. Nobody else cares or even has an opinion. At least not until they've been spoon fed one by the New York Times or Russia Today, depending on their preference. Squalid fucked around with this message at 07:16 on Feb 7, 2020 |
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Feb 7, 2020 01:57
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I too, appreciate updates posted in this thread and never have anything to contribute with.
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Feb 7, 2020 01:58
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Squalid ive always found your posts very helpful in refining my own idea of conflicts in the region.
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Feb 7, 2020 02:12
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Squalid posted:the slapfights have only quieted down because there's nothing in the news right now. As soon as any big news hits the thread will be flooded by idiots again hyperventilating about WWIII because this time, for real, Trump is going to go to war with Iran. Don't be discouraged, the news are interesting, it's just that there is not much to comment on those developments... The events in those countries have their own logic, they aren't really subject to our speculations or planning (by our I mean the western liberal interventionist angle) so they don't inspire much of a debate, but they are important and interesting nonetheless. All we can do is receive the news as they happen.
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Feb 7, 2020 02:18
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Sinteres posted:I'm glad the slapfights have quieted down too, it just felt uncomfortably like talking to myself for a bit there. side note, is there a way to get a hold of you in private? you dont seem to have PMs enabled
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Feb 7, 2020 04:02
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Squalid ive always found your posts very helpful in refining my own idea of conflicts in the region. Very much this. Like others have said I don’t have anything to add so I don’t comment saying ‘wow this sucks’ for then six thousandth time.
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Feb 7, 2020 06:26
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Apparently, Flight 6Q514 of Syrian company Cham Wings Airlines, carrying 172 passengers, dodged a missile and emergency landed on a Russian air base by the Damas airport. Anti-air missiles were launched because of an Israeli raid. https://www.ladepeche.fr/2020/02/07/un-airbus-a320-avec-172-passagers-a-bord-evite-de-peu-un-missile-et-atterrit-durgence,8716660.php
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Feb 7, 2020 12:00
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According to the Russians the Israelis use civilian airliners as cover to carry out air strikes on the regular.
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Feb 7, 2020 12:57
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Orange Devil posted:According to the Russians the Israelis use civilian airliners as cover to carry out air strikes on the regular. Pretty sure that's a war crime.
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Feb 7, 2020 12:59
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What justification do the Israelis give for their regular attacks now?
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Feb 7, 2020 13:05
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Cat Mattress posted:Pretty sure that's a war crime. At least they aren't like those Palestinians, always hiding among the civilian population.
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Feb 7, 2020 13:10
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Orange Devil posted:According to the Russians the Israelis use civilian airliners as cover to carry out air strikes on the regular. That sounds like it would result in a lot of airliners complaining, which should be easy to verify.
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Feb 7, 2020 14:21
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Orange Devil posted:According to the Russians the Israelis use civilian airliners as cover to carry out air strikes on the regular. Gotta have an excuse ready for when one of their crack air-defence crews stationed in Syria shoot down another airliner by accident.
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Feb 7, 2020 16:43
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Turkey's been moving dozens of vehicles into Idlib over the past few days, and doesn't show any signs of letting up. So far I haven't seen anything showing them moving toward the M5 highway, so the deal they may work out is Assad getting his highway and then Turkey physically guaranteeing the cease fire going forward. Russia established a new post of their own to the south of Turkey's safe zone in Rojava, so it seems like they're working on deterring retaliation in that area.
Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 18:45 on Feb 7, 2020 |
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Feb 7, 2020 16:54
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