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vyelkin posted:imo it's pretty telling that despite the potential long incubation periods we haven't really seen any self-sustaining outbreaks (yet?) in other countries, and we haven't really even seen warning signs of them (since most people show symptoms after 3-5 days, if an outbreak was starting we would be able to see it much quicker) despite it being ~3 weeks now since international cases started being reported in noteworthy numbers. Disregarding environments like cruise ships that are perfect breeding grounds for disease, it seems like most of the world is (so far!) escaping pretty much unscathed. 6 weeks ago, the reports from the PRC were comparable to the spread internationally rn. 6 weeks from now it will probably be a total solid pandemic
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Feb 18, 2020 02:09
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makes sense as to why it spread like an australian bushfire through that cruise ship. edit: lol the distribution of cruise ship passengers is exactly what you'd expect 
Notorious R.I.M. fucked around with this message at 02:15 on Feb 18, 2020 |
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Feb 18, 2020 02:11
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Backweb posted:Apple and economists: SA Forum Users "Really its NBD."
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Feb 18, 2020 02:16
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Notorious R.I.M. posted:makes sense as to why it spread like an australian bushfire through that cruise ship. lmao they are floating retirement homes
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Feb 18, 2020 02:24
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Feb 18, 2020 02:24
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etalian posted:lmao they are floating retirement homes now they're floating funeral homes
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Feb 18, 2020 02:27
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Gareth Gobulcoque posted:You're assuming the economy is tethered to reality in some way Irrationality is confined within the bounds of reality, yes.
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Feb 18, 2020 02:31
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Feb 18, 2020 02:32
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Gunshow Poophole posted:source: Reddit and eversnuffley
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Feb 18, 2020 02:34
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bob dobbs is dead posted:6 weeks ago, the reports from the PRC were comparable to the spread internationally rn. 6 weeks from now it will probably be a total solid pandemic 6 weeks ago was January 6th, well before China even publicly acknowledged there was a virus and started trying to fight it instead of cover it up. The two situations aren't really that comparable.
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Feb 18, 2020 02:35
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vyelkin posted:6 weeks ago was January 6th, well before China even publicly acknowledged there was a virus and started trying to fight it instead of cover it up. The two situations aren't really that comparable. You mean like Japan’s officials issuing mealy mouthed “Please be careful and don’t ride the train so much!” statements. This is after they had to fall back from the position of “Its not in Japan” to “Its not a problem, also we’re not going to test everyone on the ship.” Governments all over are faced with the same dilemma. Either they do something now and impact business and money making or they defer. Guess what they’re choosing? Edit: Before I get told the old chestnut of “but the ship people aren’t in Japan!”, well they’re not but they infected being treated are in fact in Japanese hospitals where they’re likely infecting the odd staff or two while also occupying beds that local cases should they spring up can’t use. VomitOnLino fucked around with this message at 02:45 on Feb 18, 2020 |
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Feb 18, 2020 02:43
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vyelkin posted:6 weeks ago was January 6th, well before China even publicly acknowledged there was a virus and started trying to fight it instead of cover it up. The two situations aren't really that comparable. if people in other countries aren't even being tested yet, which they aren't (and the tests aren't very accurate, and the incubation period is long as hell), the initial stages of the spread will easily be mistaken for another nasty cold or flu. if people aren't being tested, the first obvious sign is going to be large numbers of people with nasty pneumonia who need immediate ICU care, and by the time that becomes obvious, the virus will have already been running rampant in those countries for weeks.
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Feb 18, 2020 02:43
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vyelkin posted:6 weeks ago was January 6th, well before China even publicly acknowledged there was a virus and started trying to fight it instead of cover it up. The two situations aren't really that comparable. yeah, 3, sorry doesn't hurt my point lol
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Feb 18, 2020 02:48
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Fly Molo posted:if people in other countries aren't even being tested yet, which they aren't (and the tests aren't very accurate, and the incubation period is long as hell), the initial stages of the spread will easily be mistaken for another nasty cold or flu. if people aren't being tested, the first obvious sign is going to be large numbers of people with nasty pneumonia who need immediate ICU care, and by the time that becomes obvious, the virus will have already been running rampant in those countries for weeks. And this, too. Heck I have weird cold like symptoms including some minor chest discomfort, slight fever and cough - and before you laugh at me — I live close to a cluster of identified cases. But — but, like heck I’m gonna risk going to a hospital which is rammed with people already panicking and perhaps some properly infected at this mild stage. Basically if people have mild symptoms; some never even develop severe symptoms, they’re not gonna show up to be tested. Why would they. It would just disrupt their life for “nothing”. Edit: I should emphasize that I absolutely don’t think I got it. But at the same time the payoff for making sure could be getting infected. So yeah
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Feb 18, 2020 02:48
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Fly Molo posted:if people in other countries aren't even being tested yet, which they aren't (and the tests aren't very accurate, and the incubation period is long as hell), the initial stages of the spread will easily be mistaken for another nasty cold or flu. if people aren't being tested, the first obvious sign is going to be large numbers of people with nasty pneumonia who need immediate ICU care, and by the time that becomes obvious, the virus will have already been running rampant in those countries for weeks. right, but believe it or not public health officials think of these kinds of things too, like for example in the US the CDC has started a trial to run coronavirus tests on people presenting with flu symptoms who test negative for flu, to see whether the coronavirus has done just that. Or in the UK where they started tracking down and testing every person in the country who'd been to Wuhan recently. They aren't just sitting around on their hands saying "welp guess we don't have any coronavirus here!", they're actually making efforts to try and ensure an outbreak doesn't happen while the potential numbers of cases are still low. There's a world of difference between these kinds of efforts and the six-week-ago Chinese response of "there is no virus and everything is fine". I'm not saying these efforts will work everywhere, and it's possible, maybe even likely, that we'll see at least one localized outbreak cluster, but based on what we know right now I think it's premature and potentially alarmist to be talking like exponential growth is inevitable over the next six weeks just like happened in Wuhan. Especially since the graphs claiming to show exponential growth outside China are like half based on numbers from one quarantined cruise ship.
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Feb 18, 2020 02:50
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lol that there is a whole fascist adjacent internet subculture and youtube/conspiracy echo chamber that is just openly spoiling for this to be worse than it actually is
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Feb 18, 2020 02:58
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stephenthinkpad posted:I just found out the Indonesians are still eating bats, no wonder there is no infected reported over there. They have been eating the virus and growing antibodies since millennia. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kWsWhypMjYM
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Feb 18, 2020 03:07
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Minrad posted:i lust for boomer death
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Feb 18, 2020 03:08
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Charlz Guybon posted:These are mostly silents people generally are after they're dead!!
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Feb 18, 2020 03:10
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so the virus kills (nearly) exclusively old people and cruise ships attract only old people what a nightmare, there has to be a third factor about to drop to make the perfect storm, like if you listen to frank sinatra the virus becomes 100% lethal Pryor on Fire fucked around with this message at 03:20 on Feb 18, 2020 |
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Feb 18, 2020 03:15
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Mons Hubris posted:it also seems a little misleading to count the boat, which is like the optimal breeding ground
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Feb 18, 2020 03:23
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Gunshow Poophole posted:source: Reddit and eversnuffley actually its not reddit and eversnuffley, its the reddit user eversnuffley
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Feb 18, 2020 03:25
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twoday posted:PhD econ. Chief Economist of GnS Economics. Adj. Professor of Economics @ Uni Helsinki. This guy only seems to be quoted by Zero Hedge style fringe outfits and is also apparently a total free market nut. Don't spread this nonsense.
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Feb 18, 2020 03:26
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Pryor on Fire posted:so the virus kills (nearly) exclusively old people and cruise ships attract only old people one option: a lot of the elderly live in relatively dense clusters, so those who bring home a biological souvenir will have plenty of chances to share
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Feb 18, 2020 03:38
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AceOfFlames posted:This guy only seems to be quoted by Zero Hedge style fringe outfits and is also apparently a total free market nut. Don't spread this nonsense. Yep. also one of those guys who stubs his toe and blames it on central banks
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Feb 18, 2020 03:38
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Feb 18, 2020 03:46
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This ain’t yo daddy’s annual virus panic
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Feb 18, 2020 03:48
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I think that this thread is a great way to aggregate nonsense takes on the wuhan flu, keep posting gold bugs who are hole up inside their doomsday bunker
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Feb 18, 2020 03:54
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AceOfFlames posted:This guy only seems to be quoted by Zero Hedge style fringe outfits and is also apparently a total free market nut. Don't spread this nonsense. ok, noted. I'm not trying to be the substitute Prestor Jane, and mostly try to check sources at least a little before I post them. I only posted this after confirming that this was an economics professor who has been a contributor to various prominent sites, but I don't know poo poo about economics. retweet is not an endorsement!
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Feb 18, 2020 03:56
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twoday posted:ok, noted. I'm not trying to be the substitute Prestor Jane, and mostly try to check sources at least a little before I post them. I only posted this after confirming that this was an economics professor who has been a contributor to various prominent sites, but I don't know poo poo about economics. retweet is not an endorsement! Post freely friend
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Feb 18, 2020 03:59
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unmeidestiny posted:lol that there is a whole fascist adjacent internet subculture and youtube/conspiracy echo chamber that is just openly spoiling for this to be worse than it actually is that's not a nice way to talk about c-spam
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Feb 18, 2020 03:59
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A Gnarlacious Bro posted:Post freely friend yeah, I don't know, there are a ton of misleading clips I come across that I don't want to boost. For instance, there are plenty of neatly cropped clips clearly filmed during the past week or so that show police in masks arresting/carrying away civilians in masks that have commentary like "AUTHORITARIAN CCP THUGS HAULING OFF PEACEFUL GRANDMA TO EXECUTION CUBE PLZ RETWEET" and I don't want want to share those because they are posted totally without context, there is no way to verify what is happening in those clips, and spreading them causes unnecessary panic. Having read a lot about historical plague outbreaks, I know that similar circumstances in the past saw a massive uptick in crimes such as theft, looting, and murder. That makes sense because people are scared and desperate, but also because houses are left unattended, and people want to kill others near them whom they consider virulent. So I would expect many instances where people would be arrested now too. But if I can't confirm that they're throwing grandma into the execution cube, I'm not going to repost something that claims that.
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Feb 18, 2020 04:07
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Bakanogami posted:On the one hand, everyone there wears masks already. Lol apparently according to my friend who's lived there for a while said they don't have soap in restrooms there. She would carry like soap paper just for that.
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Feb 18, 2020 04:18
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here's a good example: this woman was not allowed to cross a bridge because of the quarantine, and got into a stand-off with the authorities guarding the bridge. Then she jumped off the bridge, and was pulled out of the water. Once they pulled her out they continued arguing and a bunch of police surrounded her in an intimidating way. https://twitter.com/exapted/status/1227246939382505472?s=20 If you crop the last 20 seconds of this video, it looks like they are just rounding up a random person and harassing them out of the blue. Do I agree with the behavior of the police? No, of course not. But I understand that they felt obliged to do something about a person who was just arguing with them and then jumped into a river in february in front of their eyes while they were being filmed, so I'm not surprised they confronted her afterwards. That's not the same thing as them coming up to a random person and surrounding them. It's easy to trim this sort of video, add made-up commentary, make it go viral, and totally distort the narrative of what's actually happening and make people think there are police death squads roaming the streets senselessly killing anyone who stands in their way. And after reading this thread I get the impression that some people are quite sensitive to that sort of misinformation, so I don't want to promote those dubious out-of-context clips, especially if it's in a language I don't know twoday fucked around with this message at 04:39 on Feb 18, 2020 |
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Feb 18, 2020 04:19
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Yes the virus also kills some post Boomers, but basically no teenagers. Many youths here spend their time skipping school to protest climate change and the fash, while we skipped school to smoke joints. What I am saying is that it seems like they are infinitely better than the garbage people of pre 00's, especially Boomers and people who are killing the earth. Therefore,
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Feb 18, 2020 04:54
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I am going to assume that since Florida has said theyre not reporting anything, that the state is nothing but flu-zombies ruled by their lich-king governor
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Feb 18, 2020 04:58
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its like the reeducation camps all over again
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Feb 18, 2020 05:01
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https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/china-unprecedented-demographic-problem-takes-shape posted:Chinese society is on the verge of a structural transformation even more profound than the long and painful project of economic rebalancing, which the Communist Party is anxiously beginning to undertake. China's population is aging more rapidly than it is getting rich, giving rise to a great demographic imbalance with important implications for the Party's efforts to transform the Chinese economy and preserve its own power in the coming decade. 
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Feb 18, 2020 05:05
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https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1229620937219362821
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Feb 18, 2020 05:21
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Ah, man. I was sure he was going to pull through after First Death.
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Feb 18, 2020 05:26
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