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Factor_VIII posted:Makes sense; Turkey cannot oppose Russia on its own. Both have a lot to lose from a high intensity conflict, but the Turks are plenty capable and would be fighting very close to home.
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Mar 5, 2020 19:16
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This is ficking madness. Turkey is literally frontier advancing greece by using refugees as cannon fodder
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Mar 5, 2020 19:17
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:This is ficking madness. Turkey is literally frontier advancing greece by using refugees as cannon fodder Are you still absolutely certain that Turkish troops will advance on Aleppo any day now?
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Mar 5, 2020 19:19
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Factor_VIII posted:Here. A Turkish security official admitted that they're doing it. So how exactly does Turkey want the EU to bail them out in Syria? Do they want the EU to send their militaries into Syria or something? Or do they want the EU to willingly take in all the refugees?
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Mar 5, 2020 19:22
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Nusra/al qaeda is pretty much the most disciplined, ideologically consistent faction with the least amount of civilian blood and atrocities on its hands.
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Mar 5, 2020 19:24
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:This is ficking madness. Turkey is literally frontier advancing greece by using refugees as cannon fodder They are neither literally nor figuratively doing this
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Mar 5, 2020 19:25
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:This is ficking madness. Turkey is literally frontier advancing greece by using refugees as cannon fodder I'd be worried about this if it wasn't you.
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Mar 5, 2020 19:41
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Charliegrs posted:So how exactly does Turkey want the EU to bail them out in Syria? Do they want the EU to send their militaries into Syria or something? Or do they want the EU to willingly take in all the refugees? Erdogan wanted military hardware he could use in Syria such as the Patriot missiles he had requested and that were denied to him. He also dreams of building settlements in the areas of Syria that he controls next to the Turkish border where he can forcibly settle the Syrians currently living in Turkey so as to replace the native Kurds that his invasion drove out. He has requested billions from the EU in order to fund his population replacement project and hopes that his actions at the Greek border will cause the EU to give in.
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Mar 5, 2020 19:47
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Grape posted:They are neither literally nor figuratively doing this Oh yeah? So turkey isnt bussing refugeed to the edge of their territory pointing to greece and saying go? Then firing teargas at border guards to aid the refugees in crossing the border? Political cannon fodder. While no one is being strait up shot, their lives are being put in more danger by the actions of turkey. You are figuratively and literally so fearful of turkey rising youd rather deny this is a turning point in history Sinteres posted:Are you still absolutely certain that Turkish troops will advance on Aleppo any day now? I am absolutely certain if the right situation arises Erdogan will attempt to gain a large swathe of syria. Just because Russia is currently shielding the regime militarily and politically, doesnt mean it will last forever. Turkey was literally shelling alleppo 3 days ago. 155mms are still within range of the city outskirts even post new ceasefire line. WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 20:20 on Mar 5, 2020 |
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Mar 5, 2020 20:17
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Rent-A-Cop posted:How do you figure? Russia's logistical capabilities are about maxed out just supporting their forces in Syria now. I agree that it's harder for Russia to project force in Syria, but it does have a stronger military and there are important financial ties between the two countries. Plus, Erdogan is interested in buying more weapons from Russia in order to have greater independence from the West. The fact Erdogan was willing to give up so much to Russia in order to end this conflict shows where the balance of power lies.
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Mar 5, 2020 20:17
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I,m not going to lie, I,m honestly shocked. I know full well that Erdogan is a witless blowhard and that there was never going to be any wider war, but I figured the worse case scenario is that a bunch of people died the rebels would end up no better off than they were before. It somehow never occurred to me that he could crumple so readily and so completely. This is so embarrassing.
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Mar 5, 2020 20:53
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HTS says they're not going to abide by the cease fire, so it'll be interesting to see if Turkey finally takes them on so the regime stops having excuses to keep fighting. Also it looks like Turkey's decided to focus elsewhere, and they're amassing rebel forces to fight the Kurds again. It wouldn't be surprising at all if Russia traded away some Kurdish land for the regime gains in Idlib. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 22:19 on Mar 5, 2020 |
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Mar 5, 2020 21:04
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Sinteres posted:HTS says they're not going to abide by the cease fire, so it'll be interesting to see if Turkey finally takes them on so the regime stops having excuses to keep fighting. How would that remove an 'excuse' for fighting? Replacing HTS with the Turkish military just means the legitimate reason would no longer be fighting terrorism, but fighting the illegal annexation of Syrian territory.
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Mar 5, 2020 22:24
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WhiskeyWhiskers posted:How would that remove an 'excuse' for fighting? Replacing HTS with the Turkish military just means the legitimate reason would no longer be fighting terrorism, but fighting the illegal annexation of Syrian territory.
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Mar 5, 2020 22:26
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Showing they can push Turkey around, while the US folds to them is probably their best bet of reintegrating YPG held territory. It's not as if the Russians have been shy over the last few days.
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Mar 5, 2020 23:06
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WhiskeyWhiskers posted:How would that remove an 'excuse' for fighting? Replacing HTS with the Turkish military just means the legitimate reason would no longer be fighting terrorism, but fighting the illegal annexation of Syrian territory. They're not capable of fighting Turkey, as the last few days pretty clearly demonstrated. Rent-A-Cop posted:Yeah but the Russians probably won't help with that so it won't happen. Which means this is what matters, yeah. Russia isn't above breaking cease fires they've negotiated of course, but breaking one explicitly for the purpose of fighting Turkish troops would be begging for an American response of some sort, even if it still wouldn't be an Article V issue if it was on Syrian soil. Breaking one to fight a group everyone involved at least officially regards as terrorists after Turkey fails yet again to restrain them is something different.
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Mar 5, 2020 23:17
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Sinteres posted:
Great. I cant wait for the Russians to step in there too and leave him with much less than he was promised. I am impressed with Erdogan's ability to make the worst of a bad situation.
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Mar 5, 2020 23:43
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Ikasuhito posted:Great. I cant wait for the Russians to step in there too and leave him with much less than he was promised. He's an authoritarian strongman surrounded by fawning yes-men who would never dare to criticize his ideas. Pretty much a recipe for making terrible decisions.
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Mar 5, 2020 23:55
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Factor_VIII posted:He's an authoritarian strongman surrounded by fawning yes-men who would never dare to criticize his ideas. Pretty much a recipe for making terrible decisions. But enough about Trump
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Mar 6, 2020 00:03
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Factor_VIII posted:He's an authoritarian strongman surrounded by fawning yes-men who would never dare to criticize his ideas. Pretty much a recipe for making terrible decisions. It's a really impressive display of incompetence.
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Mar 6, 2020 00:17
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Honestly the only thing that makes sense is that Erdogan needs to get rid of the refugees. This "release" was not set up to get anything from the EU or even NATO. He just did it. If he intended to get something for it, the attempt was stupid as hell. He obviously doesn't care anymore about any deal with EU, because all that went right out of the window. Instead, listen to what he says: It's the EU who did this, and he now retaliates. Similarly, all of Erdogan's actions in Syria seem to target the establishment of "some" stable corridor where he can settle the refugees. Neither did he advance beyond some (PR) retaliation, nor really leverage the Turkish military on the front lines. It seems all he wants are a few miles of zone to do the stuff he gotta do. If it ain't this highway, it's that. Like, what is this new deal even? I think Putin realized he can bargain (or alternatively escalate) Erdogan down to a small buffer zone, so that's what he is doing. If Erdogan had serious ambitions in Syria, there's no way he would give up territory time and time again. There just seems to be no military necessity to do so. 4 million refugees is a lot for a country like Turkey. Last time when I was there, I thought to perceive that for the first time there was some anti refugee rethoric going on (not on the level of Europe, but in part). In the beginning, this was not the case. Again, Erdogan's position is not secure. He can be voted out next election. This is still a reality - despite him owning media and companies. Taking all of this together, I think the simplest explanation is that Erdogan - for some political reason - has decided that he needs to get rid of the refugees asap. Maybe some economic poo poo going down we don't know about. He can not really "get rid of them", since a lot of his political capital is based on the (in part truthful) assertion that he took in refugees when the EU would not, and has treated them well (let's say, perhaps initially true). So he can "enable them" to resettle in Syria or go to the EU, but he can not just send them away. The gently caress you to Greece, and the slight hope of maybe reclaiming Aleppo in some Sultan Summer Super Adventure, are probably just faint bonus goals. Edit: One alternative option is that Erdogan's position is more precarious than we know. Perhaps due to the CHP resurgence he has lost a lot of power in military circles and now realizes he simply can not complete anything in Syria. Maybe (pure speculation) they managed to frame it such that Erdogan is misusing and disrespecting the military by fighting in Syria. That's something even he can not afford. Haramstufe Rot fucked around with this message at 00:29 on Mar 6, 2020 |
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Mar 6, 2020 00:22
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Sinteres posted:They're not capable of fighting Turkey, as the last few days pretty clearly demonstrated. They literally took back all ground lost after they counter-attacked? And now Turkey is signing a humiliating cease-fire that sees the Syrians gain even more territory?
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Mar 6, 2020 00:44
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WhiskeyWhiskers posted:They literally took back all ground lost after they counter-attacked? And now Turkey is signing a humiliating cease-fire? They only regained ground once Russia rejoined the fight, and the amount of losses they suffered despite Turkey not committing any ground forces beyond some artillery bombardment were pretty significant. You can't seriously think the Syrian government remotely has the resources to fight Turkey, so it's a question of what Russia's willing to support.
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Mar 6, 2020 00:45
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Sinteres posted:They only regained ground once Russia rejoined the fight, and the amount of losses they suffered despite Turkey not committing any ground forces beyond some artillery bombardment were pretty significant. You can't seriously think the Syrian government remotely has the resources to fight Turkey, so it's a question of what Russia's willing to support. Sorry, my point probably wasn't clear before. I was saying the Russians will more than likely continue to support Assad in regaining every inch of Syria as it could potentially weaken the US hold on the YPG.
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Mar 6, 2020 00:50
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WhiskeyWhiskers posted:Sorry, my point probably wasn't clear before. I was saying the Russians will more than likely continue to support Assad in regaining every inch of Syria as it could potentially weaken the US hold on the YPG. Going back to my original point, I think Russia's going to look for excuses if they do decide to support another regime offensive, which is why watching to see what Turkey does or doesn't do about HTS could be relevant when it comes to timing. If Turkey turns Idlib into an area where its forces and those of rebels under its direct control are operating, as is the case in Afrin and Al Bab, it's going to be harder to justify a new offensive than if groups like HTS are still operating freely, particularly if they themselves violate the cease fire. Russia's willing to push the boundaries and throw its weight around to some extent, but directly putting Turkish forces in harm's way without any kind of reasonable pretext is a good way to draw American interest they'd like to avoid.
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Mar 6, 2020 01:05
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I don't think a single party that signed the cease fire has honored a cease fire in literally years
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Mar 6, 2020 01:24
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Herstory Begins Now posted:I don't think a single party that signed the cease fire has honored a cease fire in literally years There are levels of breaking a cease fire though. There have been significant periods without major offensives, where the two sides just traded artillery rounds, or with some light bombing. That's still not great, but it doesn't lead to a million new refugees like a major offensive does, or to the overrunning of IDP camps which becomes more and more likely as the regime gets closer to the border. If this cease fire endures beyond the next few days though, I think there's some reason to think/hope it might last for a while, since some lines backed by Turkish forces have endured without substantial challenges. Aside from trading some blows as a result of the most recent conflict in Idlib, the Turkish backed rebels have held territory surrounding Al Bab for years despite the regime wanting to claim it (and with the rest of the M4 secured, that area is arguably more important to the regime now than anything remaining in Idlib), and the same has been true for Afrin since Turkey conquered it. That's where seeing what Turkey does or doesn't do with regard to HTS becomes important though, because there will always be a pretext to launch some form of attack against them as long as they're active.
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Mar 6, 2020 01:48
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Haramstufe Rot posted:Taking all of this together, I think the simplest explanation is that Erdogan - for some political reason - has decided that he needs to get rid of the refugees asap. Maybe some economic poo poo going down we don't know about. He could let them go back to Syria, there are many parts where the fights have stopped and refugees eager to go back home instead of linger forever in squalid camps, be they in Turkey, in Europe, or elsewhere. He isn't. All refugees are to be marched to Greece, under threat of arms if necessary. Also: Factor_VIII posted:Here. A Turkish security official admitted that they're doing it. Emphasis mine.
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Mar 6, 2020 01:49
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Again tho, sending (aka letting, because most won't wanna go) them back to Syria while the war is going is not something Erdogan will want to do. But granted: Destabilizing Greece and EU as retaliation for the perceived slights is surely also a part of it.
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Mar 6, 2020 07:46
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Factor_VIII posted:He's an authoritarian strongman surrounded by fawning yes-men who would never dare to criticize his ideas. Pretty much a recipe for making terrible decisions. The real spicy recipe is that it means he would see any capable successor-in-waiting as a threat to his power and thus it's going to be a free for all by a veritable clowncar of incompetents once Putin gives up the ghost. And it'll be the type of contest where first place means you get all the power and the wealth and second place can very well mean death. So it's going to be so much fun. Oh wait you were talking about Erdogan.
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Mar 6, 2020 08:54
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All parties, incredibly blatant https://twitter.com/Dalatrm/status/1235681822815772673 https://twitter.com/Imamofpeace/status/1235764404861497346
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Mar 6, 2020 11:56
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This is like when the Israeli deputy foreign minister had the Turkish ambassador sit on a small chair to humiliate him. Such pettiness.
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Mar 6, 2020 15:41
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Absurd Alhazred posted:This is like when the Israeli deputy foreign minister had the Turkish ambassador sit on a small chair to humiliate him. Such pettiness. That was probably just a coincidence pretty much every Russian monarch for the last four hundred has crushed the Turks in at least one war.
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Mar 6, 2020 15:47
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Throatwarbler posted:That was probably just a coincidence pretty much every Russian monarch for the last four hundred has crushed the Turks in at least one war. Yeah. The Russo-Turkish wars from the 18th century onwards are pretty much an unbroken string of disasters for the Ottomans.* Anyway, this should not be good news for Erdogan's domestic approval. Though maybe he realized that he was in over his head and better to take this hit than risk absolute disaster. *Even the Crimean War, which Russia lost (largely because of Britain and France) was not good for the Turks, as they mostly lost in the Caucasus, they suffered huge casualties to armies which were in the process of reforming their organization and recruitment, infrastructure was damaged on the front lines in the east and was overloaded internally, and financially it was ruinous for the Ottomans driving them to rely more and more on foreign loans to finance their very expensive military and administrative reforms.
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Mar 6, 2020 16:29
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https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1235984184516149251
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Mar 6, 2020 18:45
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Apparently things are kicking off in Saudi Arabia with the King presumed dead from coronavirus. Multiple arrests including the king's brother.
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Mar 7, 2020 04:54
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WhiskeyWhiskers posted:Apparently things are kicking off in Saudi Arabia with the King presumed dead from coronavirus. Multiple arrests including the king's brother. 'Coronavirus'. Sure.
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Mar 7, 2020 04:57
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WhiskeyWhiskers posted:Apparently things are kicking off in Saudi Arabia with the King presumed dead from coronavirus. Multiple arrests including the king's brother. Source?
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Mar 7, 2020 04:59
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overmind2000 posted:Source? https://twitter.com/IbnRiad/status/1236068610013048832 But also https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/06/world/middleeast/saudi-royal-arrest.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur
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Mar 7, 2020 05:01
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overmind2000 posted:Source? All major international publications are confirming the arrests, but I see nothing about the king popping his clogs.
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Mar 7, 2020 05:02
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