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Fed raising overnight repo to $175 billion. If they didn’t do that, how many finance companies would be insolvent right now?
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Mar 11, 2020 19:48
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Lote posted:Fed raising overnight repo to $175 billion. If they didn’t do that, how many finance companies would be insolvent right now? I've been trying to read and learn about repo the past few days, poo poo seems pretty concerning right now imo.
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Mar 11, 2020 20:00
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I think almost all the banks rely on that just to meet their capital requirements because they do goofy poo poo. So, all of them? Makes sense, anyways. Why not bet everything if your rich uncle will cover your losses and all of your friends'?
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Mar 11, 2020 20:01
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Lote posted:Fed raising overnight repo to $175 billion. If they didn’t do that, how many finance companies would be insolvent right now? If the Fed will backstop your neighbors with nearly unlimited amounts for overnight lending, and rates are virtually zero, why would you take any risk at all to conduct overnight lending?
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Mar 11, 2020 20:01
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jokes posted:I think almost all the banks rely on that just to meet their capital requirements because they do goofy poo poo. So, all of them? Makes sense, anyways. Why not bet everything if your rich uncle will cover your losses and all of your friends'? The situation that might be going on is that banks are needing to devote less to repo operations because they are leveraged to the hilt. They’re chasing losses by using the money freed up to purchase equities but those are taking a bath. Who knows what will happen? There may be an investment bank failure incoming because of this drive to over leverage and chase losses.
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Mar 11, 2020 20:21
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So my roommate told me last night that his company (or I assume his company's parent company) is going to be manufacturing COVID testing kits. Good time to get in on the ground floor?
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Mar 11, 2020 20:28
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As a general rule is it "better" to use the underlying or the option itself to set trailing stops values?
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Mar 11, 2020 20:29
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TITANKISSER69 posted:So my roommate told me last night that his company (or I assume his company's parent company) is going to be manufacturing COVID testing kits. Good time to get in on the ground floor? Yep get those insider trading gains dawg
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Mar 11, 2020 20:30
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TITANKISSER69 posted:words Throw us a bone here
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Mar 11, 2020 20:31
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TITANKISSER69 posted:So my roommate told me last night that his company (or I assume his company's parent company) is going to be manufacturing COVID testing kits. Good time to get in on the ground floor? Have they announced this to the public? If so, the rest of the investing world already knows what you know If not, don't do it because you'll get in trouble with the SEC
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Mar 11, 2020 20:37
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Bought 270 puts on this idiotic end of day rally Which appears to be failing before 4. 
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Mar 11, 2020 20:47
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https://nypost.com/2020/03/11/woman-quarantined-with-body-of-husband-who-died-of-coronavirus/ poo poo is gonna get wild. Italy is probably better prepared than we are, and their govt reaction was actually decent. But here they are, with rotting corpses in houses. They need loving plague wagons and dudes ringing bells, "bring out yer dead". -50% might be optimistic. And I dunno what I'm doing still sitting here in this building, breathing 2000 peoples' farts in.
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Mar 11, 2020 20:51
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Are there any good articles out there (recent, in response to COVID-19) laying out how a major recession might play out? I've got a neighbor who works as a head chef at a major hotel in DC, and he's cutting people's hours to zero left and right in response to every single upcoming event getting canceled. It has me wondering which bubbles will burst and how exactly the house of cards will fall in this type of situation. Like, auto loan bubbles were the meme a couple years back, and I'm starting to think about that again with all the service workers who are losing income.
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Mar 11, 2020 20:56
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Curious that the market is selling off both equities and bonds - bond yields have jumped a fair bit today. No idea where that money is going.
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Mar 11, 2020 20:57
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Cash gang has gone mainstream. Now I don't feel as lonely.
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Mar 11, 2020 21:05
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saintonan posted:Curious that the market is selling off both equities and bonds - bond yields have jumped a fair bit today. No idea where that money is going. Cash? What a disaster. This will be here for months.
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Mar 11, 2020 21:06
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androo posted:Are there any good articles out there (recent, in response to COVID-19) laying out how a major recession might play out? I've got a neighbor who works as a head chef at a major hotel in DC, and he's cutting people's hours to zero left and right in response to every single upcoming event getting canceled. It has me wondering which bubbles will burst and how exactly the house of cards will fall in this type of situation. Like, auto loan bubbles were the meme a couple years back, and I'm starting to think about that again with all the service workers who are losing income. It's not like we had a detailed description of credit default swaps causing an interlinked meltdown before the last major recession. A bunch of service workers losing income will suck for the service workers, but you'd need a lot of them to have bought vehicles with negative equity and to be severely underwater in order for that to have an impact with consequences that reach farther than individuals. When you get a recession off a shock, you need to look for cascading consequences. One likely sequence of cascading consequences is, the infection rate in the US outstrips other countries because the idiot president is trying to encourage people to still smear their germs all over each other, moreso than in other countries. The number of severe cases who need emergency medical intervention ramps up faster than the emergency departments in the U.S. can accept and treat patients. People who could be alive with a slow spread die. These people who unnecessarily die are substantially still employed: 29% of boomers 65-72 are still employed, and 66% of boomers 54-64 are still working. This accounts to 28.7% of the labor force being made up largely of people who are the most vulnerable to this disease. If you have 1/4th of people working stop working because they're dead, and they're dead because there was no medical capacity to prevent their death, then you lose both a lot of productive labor and a lot of institutional knowledge across the board. Or you can do a good targeted rundown like Lote did. Certain kinds of business die or go dormant from these shocks. In the oughts I'd get 5-15 credit card solicitations a week because pumping up a bunch of worthless consumer debt then selling it to someone else was the order of the day. Now I get MAYBE a single digit number of solicitations a year.
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Mar 11, 2020 21:08
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saintonan posted:Curious that the market is selling off both equities and bonds - bond yields have jumped a fair bit today. No idea where that money is going. Cash. There are narrow possibilities that governments wont be able to raise revenue plus yields are trash. Bought whatever the opposite of CZR calls are. Lote had a very good write up of why. What are the opposite of calls?
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Mar 11, 2020 21:09
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Oscar Wild posted:Cash. There are narrow possibilities that governments wont be able to raise revenue plus yields are trash. Selling calls!
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Mar 11, 2020 21:12
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Trump saying hell make an announcement later tonight. Hopefully it’s some actual fiscal action. He’s certainly motivated enough.
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Mar 11, 2020 21:15
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This video from Trump’s meeting with the CEOs makes it seems a bit like a photo op. It doesn’t seem like they’re doing anything remotely like the action of 2008. Ugh.
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Mar 11, 2020 21:22
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Josh Lyman posted:Trump saying hell make an announcement later tonight. Hopefully it’s some actual fiscal action. He’s certainly motivated enough. You forget that, early on, it was revealed his tactic is and always has been to "never give in at all ever" when he fucks up and has to fess up. Get even and all that. At this point his approach is that "while serious it's not a big deal" so he'll probably say that he's gonna EO some money thing. I'm gonna bet, uh, emergency funding for airlines.
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Mar 11, 2020 21:23
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Bought a DOTM call at the bottom of the day, let's see if the markets are still delusional enough to buy the dip.
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Mar 11, 2020 21:23
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Josh Lyman posted:Trump saying hell make an announcement later tonight. Hopefully it’s some actual fiscal action. He’s certainly motivated enough. "We have the best doctors we have nothing to worry about, the market should be going up, but the do nothing democrats want it down, because they don't like me. If they would just sign this bill it would all go away! Go to work, this isn't any worse than the flu" - What I think Trump will say tonight. He cares about the number going up, but he doesn't understand why it goes up other than people buying it. His lovely responses are the reason the market is tanking. If he reverses course his followers will start to lose faith and the market will tank more as the people that already don't trust anything he says roll their eyes at whatever he offers.
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Mar 11, 2020 21:23
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jokes posted:You forget that, early on, it was revealed his tactic is and always has been to "never give in at all ever" when he fucks up and has to fess up. Get even and all that. At this point his approach is that "while serious it's not a big deal" so he'll probably say that he's gonna EO some money thing. I'm gonna bet, uh, emergency funding for airlines. I'm betting more on hotels, since Trump owns some of those and doesn't own any airlines.
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Mar 11, 2020 21:24
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Okay I did a babby's first degenerate gambling when that little SPY dip happened right before the rally. SPY 295, Mar13 10@.32. Sold half of them up 60% before the close. Its like free money out here boys why haven't I been doing this all week? What could I be doing better than just buying far OTM calls/puts 2-3 days out opposite the direction of whatever the previous day is? I have a bunch of play money just sitting here and watching my long term VTI just bleed out is boring.
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Mar 11, 2020 21:24
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saintonan posted:I'm betting more on hotels, since Trump owns some of those and doesn't own any airlines. Yeah I can see that, actually. Or casinos.
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Mar 11, 2020 21:25
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jokes posted:Yeah I can see that, actually. Or casinos. Doesn't congress have to sign off on that? You really think he'd get support for that? Am I wrong, can he just bail stuff out without congress?
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Mar 11, 2020 21:26
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yea my 401k is officially getting smoked.
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Mar 11, 2020 21:27
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Arzakon posted:Okay I did a babby's first degenerate gambling when that little SPY dip happened right before the rally. SPY 295, Mar13 10@.32. Sold half of them up 60% before the close. Are you buying and selling on the same day? Careful you don't get hit with pattern day trading.
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Mar 11, 2020 21:30
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pixaal posted:Doesn't congress have to sign off on that? You really think he'd get support for that? Am I wrong, can he just bail stuff out without congress? he has pretty broad but not unlimited authority on how to direct funds already allocated to be spent he can't allocate new spending but there's $8.3B he could try to shovel into hotels and casinos: https://www.healio.com/infectious-d...cy-funding-bill
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Mar 11, 2020 21:31
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jokes posted:Yeah I can see that, actually. Or casinos. Considering trump's close relationship with Sheldon Adilson, how it might influence voting in a specific swing state, and my recent purchase of puts this makes sense. Otherwise it's a money grab to a pretty darn narrow slice of the american economy. Yeah, he's gonna bailout casinos.
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Mar 11, 2020 21:33
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Ur Getting Fatter posted:Are you buying and selling on the same day? Oh yeah I was gonna ask how I don't get sent to white collar prison or violate other rules.
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Mar 11, 2020 21:35
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Baddog posted:https://nypost.com/2020/03/11/woman-quarantined-with-body-of-husband-who-died-of-coronavirus/ If there was a handbook titled “how to needlessly incite mass panic” that would be chapter 1
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Mar 11, 2020 21:36
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Arzakon posted:Oh yeah I was gonna ask how I don't get sent to white collar prison or violate other rules. You won't get sent to prison but your trading can become restricted. It's for your own good really, but read up on pattern day trading, free ride violations, and settlement rules or you'll be calling your brokerage firm wondering why nothing is happening when you're mashing the buy button.
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Mar 11, 2020 21:38
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saintonan posted:Curious that the market is selling off both equities and bonds - bond yields have jumped a fair bit today. No idea where that money is going. jokes posted:Cash gang has gone mainstream. Now I don't feel as lonely. That surprised me. Yields aren't that high but major institutional holders need T-Bonds to protect themselves against bank failures. They can't simply have accounts with billions of dollars in them, right? The risk of bank failure would outstrap the loss from getting lower t-bond yield vs. savings/MM/CD yield. Are they betting on deflation?
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Mar 11, 2020 21:38
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Arzakon posted:Oh yeah I was gonna ask how I don't get sent to white collar prison or violate other rules. Look up PDT and then don't do that. If you manage to violate PDT it's not a huge deal - it just places restrictions on your account for 90 days. Which is basically 30 days longer than we will all be alive, anyway.
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Mar 11, 2020 21:40
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Oscar Wild posted:You won't get sent to prison but your trading can become restricted. It's for your own good really, but read up on pattern day trading, free ride violations, and settlement rules or you'll be calling your brokerage firm wondering why nothing is happening when you're mashing the buy button. Or like what keeps happening to reddit people, when you go to sell at a profit and are now stuck holding it over the weekend and pissed that it went from a 300% profit to a 90% loss then complain about Robinhood like it's their fault.
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Mar 11, 2020 21:42
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:My 7/17 at $275 is gonna buy me a lotta hand sanitizer off ebay How much was the premium? When did you buy?
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Mar 11, 2020 21:43
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FreelanceSocialist posted:Look up PDT and then don't do that. If you manage to violate PDT it's not a huge deal - it just places restrictions on your account for 90 days. Which is basically 30 days longer than we will all be alive, anyway.
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Mar 11, 2020 21:45
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