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A Grand Egg
Jan 12, 2020

by Pragmatica

Lambert posted:

No one was waiting for you to explain.

ok joker grown man

https://twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1238482155241713665


A Grand Egg fucked around with this message at 16:17 on Mar 13, 2020

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Bamabalacha
Sep 18, 2006

Outta my way, ya dumb rah-rah!
Lol, waltzed right into West Palm Beach airport from Toronto with nary a screening question asked.

Airport wasn't nearly as full as it should have been for the Friday of spring break, so that's good I guess?

The Walrus
Jul 9, 2002

by Fluffdaddy
Ready For The Roni


lofi
Apr 2, 2018




I'm seeing people suggest 70-80% infection rate. (Chris Whitty (UK chief medical officer), Angela Merkel)

1% fatality rate.

World population is 7,713,468,000 (ish, from wiki)

7,713,468,000*75% = 5,785,101,000 cases
5,785,101,000*1% = 57,851,010 deaths

58 million predicted dead.

Please tell me I hosed that math up?

A Grand Egg
Jan 12, 2020

by Pragmatica

lofi posted:

I'm seeing people suggest 70-80% infection rate. (Chris Whitty (UK chief medical officer), Angela Merkel)

1% fatality rate.

World population is 7,713,468,000 (ish, from wiki)

7,713,468,000*75% = 5,785,101,000 cases
5,785,101,000*1% = 57,851,010 deaths

58 million predicted dead.

Please tell me I hosed that math up?

What are you factoring in, nothing. Its just the math.

Lodin
Jul 31, 2003

by Fluffdaddy

Suck my drat balls, Ballsucknaro!

GORDON
Jan 1, 2006

by Fluffdaddy
A lot of people who will be killed by Corvid were going to die 5 minutes later anyway, either by the regular old flu, complications from another disease, or just the next good, hard sneeze. I'd like to see "Were going to die anyway" numbers alongside the kill-predictions of Corvid.

Not being a nay-sayer, I just want good data.

Hopper
Dec 28, 2004

BOOING! BOOING!
Grimey Drawer

B_sketchy posted:

What's the best way to increase one's credibility? Easy. Broadly announce to the world how great a job you're doing.

Trump really is a Grade A rear end in a top hat.
"But muuuuum Timmy made a boboooo first"

How has he not been removed from office over his management of this crisis yet? Isn't there some "please step down before you kill more citizens with your incompetency and we have to forcibly remove you" regulation?

And the best part, unless he dies of corona, he will probably be reelected by all the morons in the US. Unbelievable.

Klyith
Aug 3, 2007

GBS Pledge Week

lofi posted:

I'm seeing people suggest 70-80% infection rate. (Chris Whitty (UK chief medical officer), Angela Merkel)

1% fatality rate.

World population is 7,713,468,000 (ish, from wiki)

7,713,468,000*75% = 5,785,101,000 cases
5,785,101,000*1% = 57,851,010 deaths

58 million predicted dead.

Please tell me I hosed that math up?

Estimates that suggest a huge % of the population will get it are based on the "oh drat a lot more people already have this than we thought" data.

Fatality rates are still based on the confirmed cases numbers, ie different data.


e: like it's still bad news, but it's not tens of millions dead bad.

Hobo Clown
Oct 16, 2012

Here it is, Baby.
Your killer track.




I dunno if the initial shock is wearing off or if people are mad about sports getting canceled but my FB feed is now several flavors of "people are hysterical", "it's killed less than the flu", "here's a doctor of something or other saying why this whole thing is overblown" smugposting. And I know that in the ideal scenario of these containment measures stemming the tide enough to not leave millions dead the only reaction will be "See? It was never anything to worry about"

Disco Pope
Dec 6, 2004

Top Class!

GORDON posted:

A lot of people who will be killed by Corvid were going to die 5 minutes later anyway, either by the regular old flu, complications from another disease, or just the next good, hard sneeze. I'd like to see "Were going to die anyway" numbers alongside the kill-predictions of Corvid.

Not being a nay-sayer, I just want good data.

I was trying to find a way to say this that didn't sound callous, and it's hard not to. But yeah, I'm curious.

shovelbum
Oct 21, 2010

Fun Shoe
America is notorious for keeping old ppl propped up indefinitely stuffed full of tubes and unconscious

The Walrus
Jul 9, 2002

by Fluffdaddy
just got the email, working from home for the next three weeks minimum this really feels surreal. the wind is kicking up a fuss outside right now if things didn't feel apocalyptic enough.

Xguard86
Nov 22, 2004

"You don't understand his pain. Everywhere he goes he sees women working, wearing pants, speaking in gatherings, voting. Surely they will burn in the white hot flames of Hell"

GORDON posted:

A lot of people who will be killed by Corvid were going to die 5 minutes later anyway, either by the regular old flu, complications from another disease, or just the next good, hard sneeze. I'd like to see "Were going to die anyway" numbers alongside the kill-predictions of Corvid.

Not being a nay-sayer, I just want good data.

I believe this is called "Lift" but I'm no scientist.

Ultraklystron
May 19, 2010

Unsafe At Every Speed

GORDON posted:

A lot of people who will be killed by Corvid were going to die 5 minutes later anyway, either by the regular old flu, complications from another disease, or just the next good, hard sneeze. I'd like to see "Were going to die anyway" numbers alongside the kill-predictions of Corvid.

Not being a nay-sayer, I just want good data.

Not an unfair point; however, when those deaths and hospitalizations happen at a greatly accelerated rate in a short time frame, people with other normally treatable issues will end up dying due to resource shortages. If the ICU is tied up with COVID patients, the person who might have survived a car crash or a heart attack normally doesn't.

golden bubble
Jun 3, 2011

yospos

Take out the Covid with a cavalry charge

https://twitter.com/JackTindale/status/1238441570069774337

Rad-daddio
Apr 25, 2017

Hobo Clown posted:

I dunno if the initial shock is wearing off or if people are mad about sports getting canceled but my FB feed is now several flavors of "people are hysterical", "it's killed less than the flu", "here's a doctor of something or other saying why this whole thing is overblown" smugposting. And I know that in the ideal scenario of these containment measures stemming the tide enough to not leave millions dead the only reaction will be "See? It was never anything to worry about"

TBH, if it all the containment ends up working and way fewer people die from this then boomers can gloat all they want. I'm legit scared that this thing will be really loving bad and just hoping for the best rn

Captain Beans
Aug 5, 2004

Whar be the beans?
Hair Elf

remake “The Thing” set in Wuhan winter with John Woo directing

Cthulu Carl
Apr 16, 2006

Co-worker flew to Myrtle Beach last weekend, came back Tuesday with a dry cough insisting "it's just my sinuses draining!" He called our boss at 6 AM, having trouble breathing trying to claim it's pneumonia.


Been nice knowing y'all!

Hazo
Dec 30, 2004

SCIENCE




Dammit we almost had it

Rad-daddio
Apr 25, 2017

Cthulu Carl posted:

Co-worker flew to Myrtle Beach last weekend, came back Tuesday with a dry cough insisting "it's just my sinuses draining!" He called our boss at 6 AM, having trouble breathing trying to claim it's pneumonia.


Been nice knowing y'all!

its just the flu bro yall need to calm down and try some essential oils

Snowglobe of Doom
Mar 30, 2012

sucks to be right

Hobo Clown posted:

I dunno if the initial shock is wearing off or if people are mad about sports getting canceled but my FB feed is now several flavors of "people are hysterical", "it's killed less than the flu", "here's a doctor of something or other saying why this whole thing is overblown" smugposting. And I know that in the ideal scenario of these containment measures stemming the tide enough to not leave millions dead the only reaction will be "See? It was never anything to worry about"

People deal with stress and feelings of helplessness in different ways. Some read up about world news and confirmed methods for dealing with the issue, some hoard toilet paper, some smugly cling to social media spam which lulls them into a false sense of security.

bomb
Nov 3, 2005


Can’t get enough of jetting my butthole with this bidet

SeXReX
Jan 9, 2009

I drink, mostly.
And get mad at people on the internet


:emptyquote:
Grocery store was calm and they went even sold out of toilet paper this feels like a rip off I wanted some entertainment

Rutibex
Sep 9, 2001

by Fluffdaddy

Hobo Clown posted:

I dunno if the initial shock is wearing off or if people are mad about sports getting canceled but my FB feed is now several flavors of "people are hysterical", "it's killed less than the flu", "here's a doctor of something or other saying why this whole thing is overblown" smugposting. And I know that in the ideal scenario of these containment measures stemming the tide enough to not leave millions dead the only reaction will be "See? It was never anything to worry about"

i have been arguing with a friend over facebook for the last few hours that "this is just the flu bro nothing to worry about". 200 people dead in one day in italy, virologists, and all the exponential charts i could throw at him did nothing.

the chinese were right to weld people into their apartment

go play outside Skyler
Nov 7, 2005


bollig posted:

Okay there is some credible evidence that temp and humidity do some real damage on it. Here's the paper.

And the abstract:

quote:

This paper investigates how air temperature and humidity influence the transmission of COVID-19. After estimating the serial interval of COVID-19 from 105 pairs of the virus carrier and the infected, we calculate the daily effective reproductive number, R, for each of all 100 Chinese cities with more than 40 cases. Using the daily R values from January 21 to 23, 2020 as proxies of non-intervened transmission intensity, we find, under a linear regression framework for 100 Chinese cities, high temperature and high relative humidity significantly reduce the transmission of COVID-19, respectively, even after controlling for population density and GDP per capita of cities. One degree Celsius increase in temperature and one percent increase in relative humidity lower R by 0.0383 and 0.0224, respectively. This result is consistent with the fact that the high temperature and high humidity significantly reduce the transmission of influenza. It indicates that the arrival of summer and rainy season in the northern hemisphere can effectively reduce the transmission of the COVID-19.

Please let this be true.

mike12345
Jul 14, 2008

"Whether the Earth was created in 7 days, or 7 actual eras, I'm not sure we'll ever be able to answer that. It's one of the great mysteries."





bollig posted:

Okay there is some credible evidence that temp and humidity do some real damage on it. Here's the paper.

And the abstract:

looking forward to global warming and hot spring/summer defeating a global pandemic. it all works out in the end!

Baller Time
Apr 22, 2014

by Azathoth
Global Warming or Corona, whoever wins we loose

SeXReX
Jan 9, 2009

I drink, mostly.
And get mad at people on the internet


:emptyquote:
I'll bet the CDC doesn't even have any horses to send epidemiologists to remote areas on smdh

hemale in pain
Jun 5, 2010




people keep posting that 'only 50 deaths worldwide in 1 day' thing on social media when 200 people died in 24 hours in italy..

Ornamental Dingbat
Feb 26, 2007

poverty goat
Feb 15, 2004



Baller Time posted:

Global Warming or Corona, whoever wins we loose

The lesson from China is that a real pandemic is the solution to carbon emissions. It's time to bring back smallpox.

A Grand Egg
Jan 12, 2020

by Pragmatica
Kids are still a major vector and some people think they are immune


A Grand Egg fucked around with this message at 16:58 on Mar 13, 2020

Philthy
Jan 28, 2003

Pillbug

Hobo Clown posted:

I dunno if the initial shock is wearing off or if people are mad about sports getting canceled but my FB feed is now several flavors of "people are hysterical", "it's killed less than the flu", "here's a doctor of something or other saying why this whole thing is overblown" smugposting. And I know that in the ideal scenario of these containment measures stemming the tide enough to not leave millions dead the only reaction will be "See? It was never anything to worry about"

I dunno if you're in the US or not, but it feels like this here because it hasn't really begun yet, and the deaths that have happened have been low enough that they haven't been felt.

The stores here pretty much sold out yesterday. TP, Water, Paper towels all gone. 2/3 food gone.

I think people have it in their mind expecting that people will be falling over dead on the streets like we were seeing in China and we haven't quite hit that point yet so it's "no big deal". We're only at 1700+ confirmed infections. Once we hit 50k+ I think the smug poo poo will be gone.

A Grand Egg
Jan 12, 2020

by Pragmatica

Please let this be true.
[/quote]


its not

Barudak
May 7, 2007

Laffo, work is demanding I go in for a face to face meeting on monday and another wednesday. My three week work from home streak ends.

If my monday goes well wednesday guy can enjoy getting told to pound the finest of sand

flubber nuts
Oct 5, 2005


whats up with everyone refusing to worry about this because it only affects 'immunocompromised' people? bitch if you live in the US i bet you havn't even been to a gp in 12 months, how the gently caress could you possibly know the condition of your immune system.

the few people I have tried to educate on whats happening now quickly tell me not to freak out, relax, and try to get my mind off it.

flubber nuts fucked around with this message at 17:03 on Mar 13, 2020

Kaiju Cage Match
Nov 5, 2012





Let me guess: Aid funding in exchange for money for that stupid wall.

Rutibex
Sep 9, 2001

by Fluffdaddy

BIG TIT LIL NIP posted:

whats up with everyone refusing to worry about this because it only affects 'immunocompromised' people? bitch if you live in the US i bet you havn't even been to a gp in 12 months, how the gently caress could you possibly know the condition of your immune system.

most people are likely thinking "i cant afford to be home from work unpaid for a month" and their brain just comes up with a reasonable way to justify that stance.

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Philthy
Jan 28, 2003

Pillbug

Kaiju Cage Match posted:

Let me guess: Aid funding in exchange for money for that stupid wall.

Republicans said NO PORK

so.. no wall

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