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San Francisco is about 3 days away from shutting down, in my estimation. All schools are closed for 3+ weeks IIRC, gatherings of 100+ are prohibited, hotels left and right are shuttering for this upcoming week (ours is literally on an hour by hour basis, more than likely will shutter for next week+) and tons of restaurants, bars, clubs etc are already down for the count. The city is basically already closed, may as well just make it official. Last night I was watching the i-80 Bay Bridge junction from the rooftop bar of my hotel at 5pm and the traffic was free-flowing at probably 50mph+, literally the first time in my entire life that I can say I've seen this phenomenon on any day of the week let alone a Friday. Nuts. As I was walking home telling my wife I was heading to Bart my voice was echoing through the street, the weirdest most eerie feeling. There were at most a handful of cars and about a dozen people in view. Normally, I have to raise my voice for her to hear it on the other end.
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# ? Mar 14, 2020 22:19 |
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# ? Jun 8, 2024 05:43 |
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TheKevman posted:As I was walking home telling my wife I was heading to Bart my voice was echoing through the street, the weirdest most eerie feeling. There were at most a handful of cars and about a dozen people in view. Normally, I have to raise my voice for her to hear it on the other end. Thanks for that. I like hearing about how things are going on the ground out there.
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# ? Mar 14, 2020 22:24 |
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I’m shocked NYC hasn’t been shut down yet
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# ? Mar 14, 2020 22:41 |
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Lote posted:You’re gonna have a shock either way in the stock market. Either you shut your economy down and get few deaths or you don’t, have it get widespread and kill 3-5% of your population which is 10-20%+ of your wealthiest demographics who will try to liquidate their equity holdings in a panic. As horribly disgusting as it sounds, if the corona had a wide effect and offed a bunch of senior citizens, it would lead to a boom in the years after. Their kids finally getting a bit of inheritance and being able to buy a house (or, just do stupid spending and buy a dodge charger and beer) would pump the market for years. Not to mention the overall drain that retirees have on the government. Of course, we are not just an economy and we are also trying to be a moral people. We'd rather save our parents.
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# ? Mar 14, 2020 22:42 |
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Inner Light posted:Does Schiff ever have an idea what's going on? Is any advice of his worth following? Worth listening to so you can understand what the goldbugs are up to. However he's just doing more pump and dump. I think he also had been buying in high and is in a negative position so best to talk up gold.
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# ? Mar 14, 2020 23:07 |
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Baddog posted:Don't time the market, just hold onto that downside protection you bought, cus poo poo is gonna get wild. At some point in the last month or so you did construct a hedge against widespread pandemic and global recession, right? That doesn't involve just "your age in bonds"? This is terrible information lmao Whatcha gambling on this week tho?
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# ? Mar 14, 2020 23:07 |
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skipdogg posted:This. Should probably start evaluating your finances as a whole, instead of all these seperate buckets and budgets. Skipdogg, conservative buy and hold never-timer by day, degenerate day trading options gambler by night.
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# ? Mar 14, 2020 23:11 |
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:This is terrible information lmao Still holding all those puts Chris, like I've been saying for awhile.
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# ? Mar 14, 2020 23:14 |
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Hell yeah brother, let's get paid Table's HOT
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# ? Mar 14, 2020 23:14 |
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How many dirty dogs are in this thread anyway
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# ? Mar 14, 2020 23:19 |
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Baddog posted:Skipdogg, conservative buy and hold never-timer by day, degenerate day trading options gambler by night. indexing in the streets, wildly otm options in the sheets
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# ? Mar 14, 2020 23:23 |
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:Hell yeah brother, let's get paid You do you man. I've been taking risk off by buying more and more puts, not putting it on. Ignoring unfolding events without adjusting means you have accepted skyrocketing risk.
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# ? Mar 14, 2020 23:32 |
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Baddog posted:You do you man. Yes, hedging via puts is a common, real strategy and some people may not realize it: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/protective-put.asp "Don't time the market" should stay in its own thread. It's terrible advice when a global disaster is looming (edit: which is already here, welp!).
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# ? Mar 14, 2020 23:44 |
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pmchem posted:Yes, hedging via puts is a common, real strategy and some people may not realize it: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/protective-put.asp Holding all my puts. Wish I bought way more on Friday at the rally. I was really, really tempted to sell some of my Amazon stock to buy more puts. My grandpa bought that for me like 15 years ago before he died. I've only got 10 shares, but I'm saving that for either a down payment on a house in 5+ yrs, or retirement. Gonna hold onto it. But so tempted.
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# ? Mar 14, 2020 23:48 |
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Bored As gently caress posted:Holding all my puts. Wish I bought way more on Friday at the rally. 16k in april 200 puts will buy you a bigger house, cash
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 00:02 |
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Bored As gently caress posted:I was really, really tempted to sell some of my Amazon stock to buy more puts. My grandpa bought that for me like 15 years ago before he died. I've only got 10 shares, but I'm saving that for either a down payment on a house in 5+ yrs, or retirement. Gonna hold onto it. But so tempted. NO
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 00:02 |
Sepist posted:16k in april 200 puts will buy you a bigger house, cash you can split the difference and do half and have a cheap mortgage plus 8k in the bank just in case.
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 00:14 |
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Agronox posted:Thanks for that. I like hearing about how things are going on the ground out there. doing my duty!
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 01:04 |
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Sepist posted:It seems to be marking invalids very often on my chart, but it may be my stochastic settings. I use 8-K / 5-D for the 5 minute chart That's... hot garbage when I use 8-K, 5-D, 5m chart. I was testing it with default settings (10-k, 10-d) on a 1m chart, and getting hits about 2/3rds of the time, which is enough to make money off of, maybe. The full default settings are 80, 20, 10, 10, HIGH, LOW, CLOSE, 3, SIMPLE, No so any of those that you're tweaking to get good signals would need to be reflected in the indicator too.
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 01:04 |
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Baddog just out of curiosity where do you get your (trusted) news you seem like you tend to be a step ahead on certain things (i.e. the survival fibrosis reports that you were mentioning a week ago that are now a lot more commonplace)
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 01:07 |
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code:
The two new ones I added for FullDDipThreshold and PriceDipThreshold price and FullD chart. If the drop isn't at least X, then you don't get a trigger. 1 might be a bit much, but it weeded out a bunch of problem ones where the gain was something like thousandths of a percent. Looking at a 5 day, 5 minute chart on /ES I get 16 hits, 1 is clearly bad on 3/8 6:35PM, and there's a weak one at 3/12 4:55PM that's only giving a ~ 5 pt play in the worst case scenario entering during 5:00. 3/12 at 3:45 is the brief window for success I think we posted about in this thread. If you play around with it and find a set of parameters you like well that'd be just groovy man.
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 01:25 |
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Baddog posted:Skipdogg, conservative buy and hold never-timer by day, degenerate day trading options gambler by night. A friend of mine is a bad influence (he’s posted in this thread). I’m fortunate enough to have a couple thousand I can afford to lose without affecting anything else so why not try something new I feel like I’m missing out on some crazy poo poo watching wsb posters turning 150 bucks into 13 grand
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 01:46 |
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TheKevman posted:Baddog just out of curiosity where do you get your (trusted) news you seem like you tend to be a step ahead on certain things (i.e. the survival fibrosis reports that you were mentioning a week ago that are now a lot more commonplace) CSPAM has been like three weeks ahead of the rest of society on this since January and has already posted about all of this, FYI.
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 01:46 |
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Notorious R.I.M. posted:CSPAM has been like three weeks ahead of the rest of society on this since January and has already posted about all of this, FYI. https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3912152 I've sadly been infected with the gang tags
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 01:52 |
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skipdogg posted:A friend of mine is a bad influence (he’s posted in this thread). I’m fortunate enough to have a couple thousand I can afford to lose without affecting anything else so why not try something new Yeah, same. I loving wish I had those kinds of returns.
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 02:04 |
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Literally jacked to the tits with puts and up 150% in two weeks. https://oglobo.globo.com/sociedade/coronavirus/1004838-eu-abracei-meio-congresso-diz-senador-que-testou-positivo-para-coronavirus-24305534
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 02:22 |
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TheKevman posted:Baddog just out of curiosity where do you get your (trusted) news you seem like you tend to be a step ahead on certain things (i.e. the survival fibrosis reports that you were mentioning a week ago that are now a lot more commonplace) Im in supply chain, and it's kinda been my job to read everything I can on this since mid jan. We do have a subscription news service, which first sent an alert back Jan 2 (which we ignored), but i read a ton of stuff. gently caress cspam tho. On the positive side, china is bouncing back pretty well for now, ports are loading as fast as they can. But there is gonna be a 4-5 week window here where there are very few ships from china arriving in the US. Ports on the west coast are closing due to lack of traffic. Inventories are gonna run really low just as we go into quarantines. Air freight prices are skyrocketing with all the passenger planes being grounded, just as demand increases to make up for missing ships. A majority of air freight goes in the belly of passenger planes, so it's a huge chunk of air capacity being taken out. edit - here is a good article I just ran across on the probable outcomes from a prominent indian economic journalist - best case some countries will recover by end of year, worst case "too scary to even contemplate" https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/Swaminomics/corona-threat-could-spark-a-mega-recession/ Baddog fucked around with this message at 04:29 on Mar 15, 2020 |
# ? Mar 15, 2020 02:56 |
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Losing access to your trading account at a critical moment: it's not just for Robinhood users! https://twitter.com/business/status/1239035616085643270
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 05:03 |
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skipdogg posted:I feel like I’m missing out on some crazy poo poo watching wsb posters turning 150 bucks into 13 grand Don't. Following WSB stories is like watching a cable news channel that only covers scratch ticket and lottery winners 24/7. It's not even remotely representative of what 99% of wsb shitposters returns are. Unless you sort by new or read the daily discussion threads. Then it's hilarious.
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 05:39 |
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I feel like, watching South Korea get hit hard by the virus and seeing the efficiency and effectiveness of their response puts them in a good position to be the first country "in the clear" so to speak into a post coronavirus world. What are some Korea Exchange etfs to invest in?
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 06:38 |
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So now we can expect a press conference every day from Trump that will pump the market at the market close
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 08:04 |
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regular mike posted:I feel like, watching South Korea get hit hard by the virus and seeing the efficiency and effectiveness of their response puts them in a good position to be the first country "in the clear" so to speak into a post coronavirus world. What are some Korea Exchange etfs to invest in? The S. Korea EWY I shorted during their outbreak didn't really move that much when I held it. Its only down $12 for the month. I got in way too late, so I basically made no profit. It's now pretty close to the lowest it's been in 5 years. So it might be an opportunity, but I'd do some more research into it. I bought EWI, Italy's ETF 4/17 $23p, sold it for an almost 3x profit. Too bad I only bought one put, I ended up with $450 total out of a $160 investment. Bored As Fuck fucked around with this message at 09:21 on Mar 15, 2020 |
# ? Mar 15, 2020 09:17 |
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regular mike posted:I feel like, watching South Korea get hit hard by the virus and seeing the efficiency and effectiveness of their response puts them in a good position to be the first country "in the clear" so to speak into a post coronavirus world. What are some Korea Exchange etfs to invest in? You can buy foreign stocks directly but that can be a hassle. A bet or Korea in general can be made with forex and you can margin insane amounts on it. Otherwise I would search for KOSPI ETFs Futures on Sunday gonna open at limit down.
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 13:22 |
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/r/wallstreetbets can't be taken too seriously, but I'm a sucker for downfall memes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VNEWaJD0vNA
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 15:16 |
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Options is a probabilities game, you almost always end up wrong at some point. The people who post about going from $150 -> $13k -> $120k are probably actually seeing those returns. They close a position at a profit, and plow 100% of it into their next position. The more you open with, the more you win. And the more you lose. Eventually you lose and your entire opening position blows up. You had $1.5M available to you and you gambled it again and now you have $0. If you get the same wins but you take some money off the table at each stage and put it into something where the risk of total loss is lower, your gains mute quickly. Say you've got a sequence of ~10-baggers and you compound your winnings into your next position full each trade: $150, $1400, $13000, $120000, $1150000, $0 Now say you do the same thing but you take half at each win and put it in TLT, and compound the other half: $150, $1400, $7200, $36830, $194,830, $97415 One of these looks way better than the other until you hit 00.
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 15:33 |
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skipdogg posted:I feel like I’m missing out on some crazy poo poo watching wsb posters turning 150 bucks into 13 grand Just keep in mind that gamblers will only tell you how much money they've made- never how much they've lost.
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 16:08 |
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Holy poo poo that pump on Friday lol. Since I'm in europe I couldn't follow it in real time at that point, and markets here closed at like +1.5%. Is it too late to load up on puts now? I've been meaning to try something else while my long-term investments are burning, but never actually traded options before. Assuming I can somehow get in before everything comes crashing down again, would the highlighted one make sense (it's for april 15). I'm thinking that it's not too expensive and has high trade volume. I don't necessarily expect SPY to hit 200 by mid april (I hope not!) but if the markets keep tanking for a few days, the price of these puts should go up and I could sell them e.g. end of month. Some WSB types seem to go for 250p, obviously it's more like to be in the money at expiry but is there any benefit from the gambling point of view? Anything else to keep in mind? I could throw a few hundreds at these so if it doesn't work out, eh.
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 16:27 |
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Dwight Eisenhower posted:
This looks good, it certainly hits a lot more correctly than before on the 5 minute chart. I'll have to mess around with the settings to see if it can be cleaned up. I saw one on 2/27 @ 1145PM which is kind of weird. The chart wasn't in divergence but it still put an arrow on it. Also you can probably inverse the code and put up an indicator on the short sell as well, it's just as valid with stochastics in this market.
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 16:28 |
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mobby_6kl posted:Is it too late to load up on puts now? Nobody knows, but maybe? The S&P is already down 21%. Implied volatility is higher across the board, which makes opening options positions much more expensive. It's entirely possible that the easy money in this bear market has already been made. But, again, nobody really knows. quote:Assuming I can somehow get in before everything comes crashing down again, would the highlighted one make sense (it's for april 15). I'm thinking that it's not too expensive and has high trade volume. I don't necessarily expect SPY to hit 200 by mid april (I hope not!) but if the markets keep tanking for a few days, the price of these puts should go up and I could sell them e.g. end of month. Some WSB types seem to go for 250p, obviously it's more like to be in the money at expiry but is there any benefit from the gambling point of view? Anything else to keep in mind? I could throw a few hundreds at these so if it doesn't work out, eh. Well, any weekend data you look at is obsolete; it's another six hours before the futures open and by 9:30 Eastern US tomorrow prices are likely to be very different. Personally I don't like to buy an option that I don't think will ever be in the money unless I'm hedging or I think risks are very mispriced, but your style may be different (and people in this thread do what you propose all the time).
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 16:45 |
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# ? Jun 8, 2024 05:43 |
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Personally I think we should expect some volatile but downward trajectory for at least another quarter or two. It might be expensive to bet that way so you wont have as good gains ut if you buy broad index puts you should be making some money. The demand side is going to continue to suffer and staffing layoffs will magnify that.
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# ? Mar 15, 2020 17:19 |