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TheKevman
Dec 13, 2003
I thought Mad Max: Fury Road was
:mediocre:
so you should probably ignore anything else I say

San Francisco is about 3 days away from shutting down, in my estimation. All schools are closed for 3+ weeks IIRC, gatherings of 100+ are prohibited, hotels left and right are shuttering for this upcoming week (ours is literally on an hour by hour basis, more than likely will shutter for next week+) and tons of restaurants, bars, clubs etc are already down for the count.

The city is basically already closed, may as well just make it official. Last night I was watching the i-80 Bay Bridge junction from the rooftop bar of my hotel at 5pm and the traffic was free-flowing at probably 50mph+, literally the first time in my entire life that I can say I've seen this phenomenon on any day of the week let alone a Friday. Nuts.

As I was walking home telling my wife I was heading to Bart my voice was echoing through the street, the weirdest most eerie feeling. There were at most a handful of cars and about a dozen people in view. Normally, I have to raise my voice for her to hear it on the other end.

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Agronox
Feb 4, 2005

TheKevman posted:

As I was walking home telling my wife I was heading to Bart my voice was echoing through the street, the weirdest most eerie feeling. There were at most a handful of cars and about a dozen people in view. Normally, I have to raise my voice for her to hear it on the other end.

Thanks for that. I like hearing about how things are going on the ground out there.

GramCracker
Oct 8, 2005

beauty by stroll
I’m shocked NYC hasn’t been shut down yet

coronavirus
Jan 27, 2020

by Cyrano4747

Lote posted:

You’re gonna have a shock either way in the stock market. Either you shut your economy down and get few deaths or you don’t, have it get widespread and kill 3-5% of your population which is 10-20%+ of your wealthiest demographics who will try to liquidate their equity holdings in a panic.

As horribly disgusting as it sounds, if the corona had a wide effect and offed a bunch of senior citizens, it would lead to a boom in the years after. Their kids finally getting a bit of inheritance and being able to buy a house (or, just do stupid spending and buy a dodge charger and beer) would pump the market for years. Not to mention the overall drain that retirees have on the government.

Of course, we are not just an economy and we are also trying to be a moral people. We'd rather save our parents.

Devian666
Aug 20, 2008

Take some advice Chris.

Fun Shoe

Inner Light posted:

Does Schiff ever have an idea what's going on? Is any advice of his worth following?

Worth listening to so you can understand what the goldbugs are up to. However he's just doing more pump and dump. I think he also had been buying in high and is in a negative position so best to talk up gold.

GoGoGadgetChris
Mar 18, 2010

i powder a
granite monument
in a soundless flash

showering the grass
with molten drops of
its gold inlay

sending smoking
chips of stone
skipping into the fog

Baddog posted:

Don't time the market, just hold onto that downside protection you bought, cus poo poo is gonna get wild. At some point in the last month or so you did construct a hedge against widespread pandemic and global recession, right? That doesn't involve just "your age in bonds"?

Look, the buy and hold thread is awesome for beginner financial advice, but can we restrain ourselves from chanting "don't time the market" over and over in this thread as well?

This is terrible information lmao

Whatcha gambling on this week tho?

Baddog
May 12, 2001

skipdogg posted:

This.

I’m 100% in VIIIX for my retirement account and I’m not stressing one second about it. Yeah it’s down a ton but I’m not touching that for 30 more years.

Hoping my funds clear next week in the trading account I just opened. Can’t wait to gamble.

Should probably start evaluating your finances as a whole, instead of all these seperate buckets and budgets.

Skipdogg, conservative buy and hold never-timer by day, degenerate day trading options gambler by night.

Baddog
May 12, 2001

GoGoGadgetChris posted:

This is terrible information lmao

Whatcha gambling on this week tho?

Still holding all those puts Chris, like I've been saying for awhile.

GoGoGadgetChris
Mar 18, 2010

i powder a
granite monument
in a soundless flash

showering the grass
with molten drops of
its gold inlay

sending smoking
chips of stone
skipping into the fog
Hell yeah brother, let's get paid

Table's HOT

Inner Light
Jan 2, 2020



How many dirty dogs are in this thread anyway

Agronox
Feb 4, 2005

Baddog posted:

Skipdogg, conservative buy and hold never-timer by day, degenerate day trading options gambler by night.

indexing in the streets, wildly otm options in the sheets

Baddog
May 12, 2001

GoGoGadgetChris posted:

Hell yeah brother, let's get paid

Table's HOT

You do you man.

I've been taking risk off by buying more and more puts, not putting it on. Ignoring unfolding events without adjusting means you have accepted skyrocketing risk.

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


Baddog posted:

You do you man.

I've been taking risk off by buying more and more puts, not putting it on. Ignoring unfolding events without adjusting means you have accepted skyrocketing risk.

Yes, hedging via puts is a common, real strategy and some people may not realize it: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/protective-put.asp

"Don't time the market" should stay in its own thread. It's terrible advice when a global disaster is looming (edit: which is already here, welp!).

Bored As Fuck
Jan 1, 2006
Fun Shoe

pmchem posted:

Yes, hedging via puts is a common, real strategy and some people may not realize it: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/protective-put.asp

"Don't time the market" should stay in its own thread. It's terrible advice when a global disaster is looming (edit: which is already here, welp!).

Holding all my puts. Wish I bought way more on Friday at the rally.

I was really, really tempted to sell some of my Amazon stock to buy more puts. My grandpa bought that for me like 15 years ago before he died. I've only got 10 shares, but I'm saving that for either a down payment on a house in 5+ yrs, or retirement. Gonna hold onto it. But so tempted.

Sepist
Dec 26, 2005

FUCK BITCHES, ROUTE PACKETS

Gravy Boat 2k

Bored As gently caress posted:

Holding all my puts. Wish I bought way more on Friday at the rally.

I was really, really tempted to sell some of my Amazon stock to buy more puts. My grandpa bought that for me like 15 years ago before he died. I've only got 10 shares, but I'm saving that for either a down payment on a house in 5+ yrs, or retirement. Gonna hold onto it. But so tempted.

16k in april 200 puts will buy you a bigger house, cash

4/20 NEVER FORGET
Dec 2, 2002

NEVER FORGET OK
Fun Shoe

Bored As gently caress posted:

I was really, really tempted to sell some of my Amazon stock to buy more puts. My grandpa bought that for me like 15 years ago before he died. I've only got 10 shares, but I'm saving that for either a down payment on a house in 5+ yrs, or retirement. Gonna hold onto it. But so tempted.

NO

1st_Panzer_Div.
May 11, 2005
Grimey Drawer

Sepist posted:

16k in april 200 puts will buy you a bigger house, cash

you can split the difference and do half and have a cheap mortgage plus 8k in the bank just in case.

TheKevman
Dec 13, 2003
I thought Mad Max: Fury Road was
:mediocre:
so you should probably ignore anything else I say

Agronox posted:

Thanks for that. I like hearing about how things are going on the ground out there.

:patriot: doing my duty! :911:

Dwight Eisenhower
Jan 24, 2006

Indeed, I think that people want peace so much that one of these days governments had better get out of the way and let them have it.

Sepist posted:

It seems to be marking invalids very often on my chart, but it may be my stochastic settings. I use 8-K / 5-D for the 5 minute chart

That's... hot garbage when I use 8-K, 5-D, 5m chart.

I was testing it with default settings (10-k, 10-d) on a 1m chart, and getting hits about 2/3rds of the time, which is enough to make money off of, maybe.

The full default settings are 80, 20, 10, 10, HIGH, LOW, CLOSE, 3, SIMPLE, No

so any of those that you're tweaking to get good signals would need to be reflected in the indicator too.

TheKevman
Dec 13, 2003
I thought Mad Max: Fury Road was
:mediocre:
so you should probably ignore anything else I say

Baddog just out of curiosity where do you get your (trusted) news you seem like you tend to be a step ahead on certain things (i.e. the survival fibrosis reports that you were mentioning a week ago that are now a lot more commonplace)

Dwight Eisenhower
Jan 24, 2006

Indeed, I think that people want peace so much that one of these days governments had better get out of the way and let them have it.
code:
input over_bought = 80;
input over_sold = 20;
input KPeriod = 8;
input DPeriod = 5;
input priceH = high;
input priceL = low;
input priceC = close;
input slowing_period = 3;
input averageType = AverageType.SIMPLE;
input showBreakoutSignals = {default "No", "On FullK", "On FullD", "On FullK & FullD"};

input lowLookback = 8;
input FullDDipThreshold = 1;
input PriceDipThreshold = 0;

plot sfd = StochasticFull(over_bought, over_sold,  KPeriod,  DPeriod,  priceH,  priceL,  priceC,  slowing_period, averageType, showBreakoutSignals).FullD;
sfd.Hide();

def sfdMin = if (sfd[2] > sfd[1] and sfd[1] > sfd  and sfd[-1] > sfd) then sfd else Double.NaN;

plot lowestInRange = Lowest(low, lowLookback);
lowestInRange.Hide();

def lowStartingRange = low[lowLookback];

plot priceDip = if (!IsNaN(sfdMin) and lowestInRange != lowStartingRange) then lowestInRange else Double.NaN;
plot sfdDip = if (!IsNaN(sfdMin) and lowestInRange !=
lowStartingRange) then sfdMin else Double.NaN;
priceDip.Hide();
sfdDip.Hide();

def priorDipPrice = fold i = 1 to 100 with priorPriceDip = Double.NaN while IsNaN(priorPriceDip) do priceDip[i];
def priorDipStoch = fold j = 1 to 100 with priorStochDip =
Double.NaN while IsNaN(priorStochDip) do sfdDip[j];

plot buyNow = if (priorDipPrice - priceDip > PriceDipThreshold and sfdDip - priorDipStoch > FullDDipThreshold) then low else Double.NaN;
buyNow.SetPaintingStrategy(PaintingStrategy.ARROW_UP);
Okay, lots of inputs on this: the first 10 mirror the FullStochastic's parameters, mainly so it's passing through whatever you look at the chart with to the underlying to get a 1:1 rendering.

The two new ones I added for FullDDipThreshold and PriceDipThreshold price and FullD chart. If the drop isn't at least X, then you don't get a trigger. 1 might be a bit much, but it weeded out a bunch of problem ones where the gain was something like thousandths of a percent. Looking at a 5 day, 5 minute chart on /ES I get 16 hits, 1 is clearly bad on 3/8 6:35PM, and there's a weak one at 3/12 4:55PM that's only giving a ~ 5 pt play in the worst case scenario entering during 5:00. 3/12 at 3:45 is the brief window for success I think we posted about in this thread.

If you play around with it and find a set of parameters you like well that'd be just groovy man. :)

skipdogg
Nov 29, 2004
Resident SRT-4 Expert

Baddog posted:

Skipdogg, conservative buy and hold never-timer by day, degenerate day trading options gambler by night.

A friend of mine is a bad influence (he’s posted in this thread). I’m fortunate enough to have a couple thousand I can afford to lose without affecting anything else so why not try something new

I feel like I’m missing out on some crazy poo poo watching wsb posters turning 150 bucks into 13 grand

Notorious R.I.M.
Jan 27, 2004

up to my ass in alligators

TheKevman posted:

Baddog just out of curiosity where do you get your (trusted) news you seem like you tend to be a step ahead on certain things (i.e. the survival fibrosis reports that you were mentioning a week ago that are now a lot more commonplace)

CSPAM has been like three weeks ahead of the rest of society on this since January and has already posted about all of this, FYI.

Inner Light
Jan 2, 2020



Notorious R.I.M. posted:

CSPAM has been like three weeks ahead of the rest of society on this since January and has already posted about all of this, FYI.

https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3912152

I've sadly been infected with the gang tags

Bored As Fuck
Jan 1, 2006
Fun Shoe

skipdogg posted:

A friend of mine is a bad influence (he’s posted in this thread). I’m fortunate enough to have a couple thousand I can afford to lose without affecting anything else so why not try something new

I feel like I’m missing out on some crazy poo poo watching wsb posters turning 150 bucks into 13 grand

Yeah, same. I loving wish I had those kinds of returns.

FAN OF NICKELBACK
Apr 9, 2002
Literally jacked to the tits with puts and up 150% in two weeks.

https://oglobo.globo.com/sociedade/coronavirus/1004838-eu-abracei-meio-congresso-diz-senador-que-testou-positivo-para-coronavirus-24305534

Baddog
May 12, 2001

TheKevman posted:

Baddog just out of curiosity where do you get your (trusted) news you seem like you tend to be a step ahead on certain things (i.e. the survival fibrosis reports that you were mentioning a week ago that are now a lot more commonplace)


Im in supply chain, and it's kinda been my job to read everything I can on this since mid jan. We do have a subscription news service, which first sent an alert back Jan 2 (which we ignored), but i read a ton of stuff. gently caress cspam tho.

On the positive side, china is bouncing back pretty well for now, ports are loading as fast as they can. But there is gonna be a 4-5 week window here where there are very few ships from china arriving in the US. Ports on the west coast are closing due to lack of traffic. Inventories are gonna run really low just as we go into quarantines.

Air freight prices are skyrocketing with all the passenger planes being grounded, just as demand increases to make up for missing ships. A majority of air freight goes in the belly of passenger planes, so it's a huge chunk of air capacity being taken out.

edit - here is a good article I just ran across on the probable outcomes from a prominent indian economic journalist - best case some countries will recover by end of year, worst case "too scary to even contemplate"

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/Swaminomics/corona-threat-could-spark-a-mega-recession/

Baddog fucked around with this message at 04:29 on Mar 15, 2020

strange feelings re Daisy
Aug 2, 2000

Losing access to your trading account at a critical moment: it's not just for Robinhood users!
https://twitter.com/business/status/1239035616085643270

FreelanceSocialist
Nov 19, 2002

skipdogg posted:

I feel like I’m missing out on some crazy poo poo watching wsb posters turning 150 bucks into 13 grand

Don't. Following WSB stories is like watching a cable news channel that only covers scratch ticket and lottery winners 24/7. It's not even remotely representative of what 99% of wsb shitposters returns are.

Unless you sort by new or read the daily discussion threads. Then it's hilarious.

regular mike
Mar 29, 2010
I feel like, watching South Korea get hit hard by the virus and seeing the efficiency and effectiveness of their response puts them in a good position to be the first country "in the clear" so to speak into a post coronavirus world. What are some Korea Exchange etfs to invest in?

orange sky
May 7, 2007

So now we can expect a press conference every day from Trump that will pump the market at the market close

Bored As Fuck
Jan 1, 2006
Fun Shoe

regular mike posted:

I feel like, watching South Korea get hit hard by the virus and seeing the efficiency and effectiveness of their response puts them in a good position to be the first country "in the clear" so to speak into a post coronavirus world. What are some Korea Exchange etfs to invest in?

The S. Korea EWY I shorted during their outbreak didn't really move that much when I held it. Its only down $12 for the month. I got in way too late, so I basically made no profit. It's now pretty close to the lowest it's been in 5 years. So it might be an opportunity, but I'd do some more research into it.

I bought EWI, Italy's ETF 4/17 $23p, sold it for an almost 3x profit. Too bad I only bought one put, I ended up with $450 total out of a $160 investment.

Bored As Fuck fucked around with this message at 09:21 on Mar 15, 2020

Lote
Aug 5, 2001

Place your bets

regular mike posted:

I feel like, watching South Korea get hit hard by the virus and seeing the efficiency and effectiveness of their response puts them in a good position to be the first country "in the clear" so to speak into a post coronavirus world. What are some Korea Exchange etfs to invest in?

You can buy foreign stocks directly but that can be a hassle. A bet or Korea in general can be made with forex and you can margin insane amounts on it. Otherwise I would search for KOSPI ETFs

Futures on Sunday gonna open at limit down.

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


/r/wallstreetbets can't be taken too seriously, but I'm a sucker for downfall memes:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VNEWaJD0vNA

Dwight Eisenhower
Jan 24, 2006

Indeed, I think that people want peace so much that one of these days governments had better get out of the way and let them have it.
Options is a probabilities game, you almost always end up wrong at some point. The people who post about going from $150 -> $13k -> $120k are probably actually seeing those returns. They close a position at a profit, and plow 100% of it into their next position. The more you open with, the more you win.

And the more you lose. Eventually you lose and your entire opening position blows up. You had $1.5M available to you and you gambled it again and now you have $0.

If you get the same wins but you take some money off the table at each stage and put it into something where the risk of total loss is lower, your gains mute quickly. Say you've got a sequence of ~10-baggers and you compound your winnings into your next position full each trade: $150, $1400, $13000, $120000, $1150000, $0

Now say you do the same thing but you take half at each win and put it in TLT, and compound the other half: $150, $1400, $7200, $36830, $194,830, $97415

One of these looks way better than the other until you hit 00.

melon cat
Jan 21, 2010

Nap Ghost

skipdogg posted:

I feel like I’m missing out on some crazy poo poo watching wsb posters turning 150 bucks into 13 grand

Just keep in mind that gamblers will only tell you how much money they've made- never how much they've lost.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
Holy poo poo that pump on Friday lol. Since I'm in europe I couldn't follow it in real time at that point, and markets here closed at like +1.5%.

Is it too late to load up on puts now? I've been meaning to try something else while my long-term investments are burning, but never actually traded options before.



Assuming I can somehow get in before everything comes crashing down again, would the highlighted one make sense (it's for april 15). I'm thinking that it's not too expensive and has high trade volume. I don't necessarily expect SPY to hit 200 by mid april (I hope not!) but if the markets keep tanking for a few days, the price of these puts should go up and I could sell them e.g. end of month. Some WSB types seem to go for 250p, obviously it's more like to be in the money at expiry but is there any benefit from the gambling point of view? Anything else to keep in mind? I could throw a few hundreds at these so if it doesn't work out, eh.

Sepist
Dec 26, 2005

FUCK BITCHES, ROUTE PACKETS

Gravy Boat 2k

Dwight Eisenhower posted:

code:
input over_bought = 80;
input over_sold = 20;
input KPeriod = 8;
input DPeriod = 5;
input priceH = high;
input priceL = low;
input priceC = close;
input slowing_period = 3;
input averageType = AverageType.SIMPLE;
input showBreakoutSignals = {default "No", "On FullK", "On FullD", "On FullK & FullD"};

input lowLookback = 8;
input FullDDipThreshold = 1;
input PriceDipThreshold = 0;

plot sfd = StochasticFull(over_bought, over_sold,  KPeriod,  DPeriod,  priceH,  priceL,  priceC,  slowing_period, averageType, showBreakoutSignals).FullD;
sfd.Hide();

def sfdMin = if (sfd[2] > sfd[1] and sfd[1] > sfd  and sfd[-1] > sfd) then sfd else Double.NaN;

plot lowestInRange = Lowest(low, lowLookback);
lowestInRange.Hide();

def lowStartingRange = low[lowLookback];

plot priceDip = if (!IsNaN(sfdMin) and lowestInRange != lowStartingRange) then lowestInRange else Double.NaN;
plot sfdDip = if (!IsNaN(sfdMin) and lowestInRange !=
lowStartingRange) then sfdMin else Double.NaN;
priceDip.Hide();
sfdDip.Hide();

def priorDipPrice = fold i = 1 to 100 with priorPriceDip = Double.NaN while IsNaN(priorPriceDip) do priceDip[i];
def priorDipStoch = fold j = 1 to 100 with priorStochDip =
Double.NaN while IsNaN(priorStochDip) do sfdDip[j];

plot buyNow = if (priorDipPrice - priceDip > PriceDipThreshold and sfdDip - priorDipStoch > FullDDipThreshold) then low else Double.NaN;
buyNow.SetPaintingStrategy(PaintingStrategy.ARROW_UP);
Okay, lots of inputs on this: the first 10 mirror the FullStochastic's parameters, mainly so it's passing through whatever you look at the chart with to the underlying to get a 1:1 rendering.

The two new ones I added for FullDDipThreshold and PriceDipThreshold price and FullD chart. If the drop isn't at least X, then you don't get a trigger. 1 might be a bit much, but it weeded out a bunch of problem ones where the gain was something like thousandths of a percent. Looking at a 5 day, 5 minute chart on /ES I get 16 hits, 1 is clearly bad on 3/8 6:35PM, and there's a weak one at 3/12 4:55PM that's only giving a ~ 5 pt play in the worst case scenario entering during 5:00. 3/12 at 3:45 is the brief window for success I think we posted about in this thread.

If you play around with it and find a set of parameters you like well that'd be just groovy man. :)

This looks good, it certainly hits a lot more correctly than before on the 5 minute chart. I'll have to mess around with the settings to see if it can be cleaned up.

I saw one on 2/27 @ 1145PM which is kind of weird. The chart wasn't in divergence but it still put an arrow on it.

Also you can probably inverse the code and put up an indicator on the short sell as well, it's just as valid with stochastics in this market.

Agronox
Feb 4, 2005

mobby_6kl posted:

Is it too late to load up on puts now?

Nobody knows, but maybe? The S&P is already down 21%. Implied volatility is higher across the board, which makes opening options positions much more expensive.

It's entirely possible that the easy money in this bear market has already been made. But, again, nobody really knows.

quote:

Assuming I can somehow get in before everything comes crashing down again, would the highlighted one make sense (it's for april 15). I'm thinking that it's not too expensive and has high trade volume. I don't necessarily expect SPY to hit 200 by mid april (I hope not!) but if the markets keep tanking for a few days, the price of these puts should go up and I could sell them e.g. end of month. Some WSB types seem to go for 250p, obviously it's more like to be in the money at expiry but is there any benefit from the gambling point of view? Anything else to keep in mind? I could throw a few hundreds at these so if it doesn't work out, eh.

Well, any weekend data you look at is obsolete; it's another six hours before the futures open and by 9:30 Eastern US tomorrow prices are likely to be very different.

Personally I don't like to buy an option that I don't think will ever be in the money unless I'm hedging or I think risks are very mispriced, but your style may be different (and people in this thread do what you propose all the time).

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Oscar Wild
Apr 11, 2006

It's good to be a G
Personally I think we should expect some volatile but downward trajectory for at least another quarter or two. It might be expensive to bet that way so you wont have as good gains ut if you buy broad index puts you should be making some money.

The demand side is going to continue to suffer and staffing layoffs will magnify that.

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