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pmchem posted:This is a reasonable post and I agree with most of your points. However, someone may want take a retirement goal (in total funds or timeline) and be more aggressive, or conservative. Reality might not be "hit $X by $DATE", be actually be better described as "hit $<RANGE> by $DATE". The distribution of $RANGE affects the strategy. This adds complications. It adds nuance. yeah, that's actually what normally happens here. Baddog just happened to be stubborn about, "you need to pull your money out of the market because some country had a revolution once and I have a condo in a foreign country," so the responses were in response to some pretty outlandish theories about the future of the US economy. This was aggravated by the recent influx of people coming in to the thread asking where to put all the money they just pulled out of the market in panic.
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Mar 17, 2020 21:05
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| # ? May 18, 2024 01:48 |
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I put mine in VFIUX it seems to have worked
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Mar 17, 2020 21:07
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pmchem posted:This is a reasonable post and I agree with most of your points. However, someone may want take a retirement goal (in total funds or timeline) and be more aggressive, or conservative. Reality might not be "hit $X by $DATE", be actually be better described as "hit $<RANGE> by $DATE". The distribution of $RANGE affects the strategy. This adds complications. It adds nuance. We're on the same page here for sure, and actually I've made more than one post in this thread over the years asking people not to do poo poo like just say what their asset allocation happens to be, with zero context. It's not useful to know that some random SA poster is 100% equities; even if they actually post their age, it's still not really very useful. People's specific situation and goals matter when it comes to choosing things like asset allocation, what retirement vehicles are appropriate, and determining whether they "doing OK" or not. Where I don't ever really go is: the news suggests we're about to have a global pandemic, everyone should go buy puts against the S&P. Even if people who did that this time, weeks ago, just made out like bandits, that's not appropriate advice for long-term investors, and it's not even really hedging, it's timing the market with a gamble that may or may not pay off. (There are volatility hedges already commonly suggested in this thread.)
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Mar 17, 2020 21:18
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Hoodwinker posted:that wasn't the tenor or nature of the discussion. It was simply, "The market's going to shut down. You should pull your money out." DaveSauce posted:Baddog just happened to be stubborn about, "you need to pull your money out of the market because some country had a revolution once and I have a condo in a foreign country," so the responses were in response to some pretty outlandish theories about the future of the US economy. Those are some big rear end strawmen! Baddog posted:"Hmm we are likely looking at the worst pandemic to hit the world in the last 100 years. Probably not going to miss out on too many gains if you wait a few weeks to see how this starts to shake out in the US, and if infections take off again in China." Baddog posted:"This wasn't an unforeseeable event, only warned of by perma-bears. Long term planning includes taking insurance when risk of collapse gets too high. Baddog posted:"The point was that just because everything has been cool your entire life up to this point, it's not a guarantee the market will always go up in a given thirty year period. Especially when we have poo poo like this happening." You can contrast that with the "tenor" of the replies.
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Mar 17, 2020 21:46
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Baddog posted:Those are some big rear end strawmen!
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Mar 17, 2020 21:52
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You yourself screenshotted your own post where you said this, dog.
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Mar 17, 2020 21:56
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This thread is usually pretty slow and a bit dull. When the markets went to poo poo, this thread having 2 weeks worth of posts in a day was my primary indicator. Right now is literally where this thread gets its mettle tested. To summarize: Stop, think, describe your goals, describe your location on that journey, and plan ahead. Long term. Gut reactions aren't generally the result of long term thinking and the hallmark of acting with intention. Want to gamble with hookers and blow and blackjack? We have a thread for that too.
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Mar 17, 2020 22:00
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H110Hawk posted:This thread is usually pretty slow and a bit dull. When the markets went to poo poo, this thread having 2 weeks worth of posts in a day was my primary indicator. Right now is literally where this thread gets its mettle tested. To summarize: So what you're saying is we need an ETF that trades based on BFC posts? 
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Mar 17, 2020 22:02
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:You can be a responsible investor with your savings and also have some fun with your disposable income, IMHO. No need for the posters of each thread to be mutually exclusive like it's the Console Wars or something. totally agreed. i just beat the market timing drum in the other thread when people start talkin bout retirement accounts. YOLO with your discretionary at the worlds biggest legal casino, go nuts. when you look at Americans saving for retirement the order of problems is like 1) don't save at all 2) don't save enough 3) don't leave their money in the market 4) don't adequately rebalance portfolio 5) don't hedge against downside risks then people in the stock picking thread are like "yeah you should buy puts to hedge against downside risk for your retirement portfolio" guys that is like goin to step 5 before we've gotten through steps 1-4 KYOON GRIFFEY JR fucked around with this message at 22:08 on Mar 17, 2020 |
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Mar 17, 2020 22:06
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:totally agreed. i just beat the market timing drum in the other thread when people start talkin bout retirement accounts. YOLO with your discretionary at the worlds biggest legal casino, go nuts. Let's pull on #5 a bit and assume 1-4 were done. What are the best ways this thread recommends to hedge against downside risks in equities?
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Mar 17, 2020 22:09
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Hoodwinker posted:You yourself screenshotted your own post where you said this, dog. Yah I did say that, I was responding to the guy who said his wife had bought something w/ a cooling off period. You don't have cooling off periods for normal decent investments. Abongination posted:My missus finally got convinced by some blokes she pays to dump a bunch of money in just under two weeks ago. She’s still in a “cooling off” period apparently so can pull the cash without any fees. Baddog posted:Hmm we are likely looking at the worst pandemic to hit the world in the last 100 years. Probably not going to miss out on too many gains if you wait a few weeks to see how this starts to shake out in the US, and if infections take off again in China.
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Mar 17, 2020 22:10
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Paul MaudDib posted:So what you're saying is we need an ETF that trades based on BFC posts? Correct. Basically I've hooked up ToS to my Something Awful Comedy Forum account.
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Mar 17, 2020 22:16
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Baddog posted:Yah I did say that, I was responding to the guy who said his wife had bought something w/ a cooling off period. You don't have cooling off periods for normal decent investments. Actually, flippancy aside, can you answer my question before about why we should consider timing the market here instead of just doing boring old regular index investing? I asked earlier and I want to know why you think it should matter now not to do that. It was this post: Hoodwinker posted:Why were we supposed to react to these events, exactly? Is the market literally never going to recover? Is it different this time? Will I have less money 30 years from now than any other 30 year period? Hoodwinker fucked around with this message at 22:19 on Mar 17, 2020 |
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Mar 17, 2020 22:16
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pmchem posted:Let's pull on #5 a bit and assume 1-4 were done. What are the best ways this thread recommends to hedge against downside risks in equities? honestly, there's not much - mostly using re-balancing away from equities as people get closer to retirement age and diversifying in to other assets (owning a home maybe or alternately putting money in REITs) you are definitely smarter about that sort of thing than i am, so i would like to know what you advocate! Baddog posted:Yah I did say that, I was responding to the guy who said his wife had bought something w/ a cooling off period. You don't have cooling off periods for normal decent investments. yeah that was good advice (to pull your money out of anything with a cooling off period).
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Mar 17, 2020 22:18
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pmchem posted:Let's pull on #5 a bit and assume 1-4 were done. What are the best ways this thread recommends to hedge against downside risks in equities? My up front reaction is, "Save more than you think you need to." This is parallel to what you said about seeking a range for your final value. If you want to dig into, "What if equities return negative over a 30 year period?" then I'm interested to hear what people say.
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Mar 17, 2020 22:21
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DaveSauce posted:In reality, the dollars you "missed" by not panic selling will be only a small portion of your retirement fund in 30 years. Say you're 30 years old. Plan to retire at 60. Over the years you've put money into your ROTH when you can. You have $100,000 in it by Feb 29th and follow this guys advice to GTFO You have all your money dumped into VFIAX. Person A has $100,000 in the market as of March 2nd. Sells it, rebuys today with it down roughly 23.5% less Person B has $100,000 in the market as of March 2nd and just leaves it for 30 year. Accepts the loss and has $76,500.00 today. Each continue to invest each year and doesn't touch it for 30 more years. Person A comes out ahead when they are retired by... $76,219.84 at 4% gains per year $134,972.04 at 6% gains per year $236,472.44 at 8% gains per year. That's your perfectly timed the market scenario. And that amount drastically goes down each day you don't buy back in and each day the market goes back up. Or you get hosed because Super Coronavirus comes back the year before you're supposed to retire
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Mar 17, 2020 22:39
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Astro7x posted:Say you're 30 years old. Plan to retire at 60. Over the years you've put money into your ROTH when you can. You have $100,000 in it by Feb 29th and follow this guys advice to GTFO That is a lot less than I expected.
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Mar 17, 2020 22:53
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Astro7x posted:Say you're 30 years old. Plan to retire at 60. Over the years you've put money into your ROTH when you can. You have $100,000 in it by Feb 29th and follow this guys advice to GTFO Want to say what the percent difference is between the two scenarios, not the $ difference? You should see a constant %, regardless of the assumed return you plug in.
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Mar 17, 2020 23:28
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Pollyanna posted:That is a lot less than I expected. Well he didn't even compound the effects of person A nailing the next 5 market corrections too.
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Mar 17, 2020 23:31
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:You can be a responsible investor with your savings and also have some fun with your disposable income, IMHO. No need for the posters of each thread to be mutually exclusive like it's the Console Wars or something. See this is what I hope, although I’m wondering how many posters are day trading away their retirement funds. Like that guy saying he wants to retire and not work 30 years.
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Mar 17, 2020 23:40
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Residency Evil posted:See this is what I hope, although I’m wondering how many posters are day trading away their retirement funds. If you mean me, I said I didn’t want to work 30 more years. I’ve already worked 19 years and don’t want to see my savings cut in half due to blindly following the never sell principle. Going to a cash like fund in my 401k (not day trading) is my hedge against (somewhat likely) disaster in the economy. If and when the economy rebounds I can get back in and only lose out on the gains between now and then. I’ll call that my insurance premium.
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Mar 17, 2020 23:56
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nelson posted:If you mean me, I said I didn’t want to work 30 more years. I’ve already worked 19 years and don’t want to see my savings cut in half due to blindly following the never sell principle. Going to a cash like fund in my 401k (not day trading) is my hedge against (somewhat likely) disaster in the economy. If and when the economy rebounds I can get back in and only lose out on the gains between now and then. I’ll call that my insurance premium. If you already have enough to retire at your desired time by cashing out now + continuing your normal contributions during the remainder of your planned working years then a decision to go to all cash is a logical one. It's not what I'd do, but it's certainly rational and defensible.
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Mar 18, 2020 00:02
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nelson posted:If you mean me, I said I didn’t want to work 30 more years. I’ve already worked 19 years and don’t want to see my savings cut in half due to blindly following the never sell principle. Going to a cash like fund in my 401k (not day trading) is my hedge against (somewhat likely) disaster in the economy. If and when the economy rebounds I can get back in and only lose out on the gains between now and then. I’ll call that my insurance premium. There is no "blindly never sell" principle. There is only proper asset allocation, and unfortunately, it sounds like you realized your proper AA in the midst of an economic downturn. Hopefully you didn't lock in too many losses and have many years of human capital ahead of you!
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Mar 18, 2020 00:05
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:it sounds like you realized your proper AA in the midst of an economic downturn. This is the test most people haven't had yet in their time investing.
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Mar 18, 2020 00:09
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another satisfied investor chooses the sell low buy high strategy! You've got another 10-20 years in the market, things aren't going to stay this bad for that long. Odds are good that in another 5 or 10 years we're back to setting all-time highs. People thought the world was ending in 2008, things sucked for a few years and it came back. Start moving to bonds or cash once things pick back up, since you're worried about risk.
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Mar 18, 2020 00:13
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nelson posted:If you mean me, I said I didn’t want to work 30 more years. I’ve already worked 19 years and don’t want to see my savings cut in half due to blindly following the never sell principle. Going to a cash like fund in my 401k (not day trading) is my hedge against (somewhat likely) disaster in the economy. If and when the economy rebounds I can get back in and only lose out on the gains between now and then. I’ll call that my insurance premium. I'd say you're the one who's going blind. There's no "never sell principle." What there is is a bunch of data that shows that 80% of actively managed mutual funds underperform the market, and I'd bet 100% of those funds are managed by people more educated and experienced in the subject than you. The only things that can dramatically affect the stock market like this are things that are by definition unpredictable. Pulling out in February was a blind guess, as the risk level at the time was already priced in. You're shooting in the dark and will probably sacrifice returns over the long run. Anyone can beat the market over the course of a year with a little bit of luck. Doing it over 30 though? I'd bet against them.
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Mar 18, 2020 00:15
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Paul MaudDib posted:Start moving to bonds or cash once things pick back up, since you're worried about risk. "Once things pick back up" No. If it's the time you'd normally re-balance then this is what will happen. If this situation makes you re-evaluate how often or when you re-balance you should have a considered reason for why this changed and how it will work going forward.
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Mar 18, 2020 00:15
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Rebalance with contributions, not assets.
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Mar 18, 2020 00:41
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acidx posted:I'd say you're the one who's going blind. There's no "never sell principle. Fine. “Never time the market” principle then. My hypothesis is this economy is in a slow motion train wreck. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong.
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Mar 18, 2020 02:07
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Paul MaudDib posted:another satisfied investor chooses the sell low buy high strategy! What did people say before 2008 to point out that nothing matters in the short term? '87?
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Mar 18, 2020 02:23
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jokes posted:What did people say before 2008 to point out that nothing matters in the short term? '87? Here's what happens if you put all your retirement money in the S&P 500 (equivalent) in 1928 and take it out in 1958.  This is not inflation adjusted nor does it allow you to make contributions past 1928. If you make contributions past 1928 it looks much better. If you adjust for inflation, it comes out flatter. You live through the worst economic crisis in history and a world war and still do OK.
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Mar 18, 2020 02:52
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nelson posted:If you mean me, I said I didn’t want to work 30 more years. I’ve already worked 19 years and don’t want to see my savings cut in half due to blindly following the never sell principle. Going to a cash like fund in my 401k (not day trading) is my hedge against (somewhat likely) disaster in the economy. If and when the economy rebounds I can get back in and only lose out on the gains between now and then. I’ll call that my insurance premium. But as others have pointed out, you should have been adjusting your portfolio allocation over time. At 19 years you’re what, 42/43? You should probably be anywhere from 20-40% bonds. Your age in bonds was considered conservative in 2019, I bet it’ll be back in vogue now.
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Mar 18, 2020 02:56
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Also yeah if you DCA you’ll be buying at the lows by default, no need to worry about this magical event of dropping everything you own in at just thr right time
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Mar 18, 2020 02:57
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I’m definitely doing DCA next time. Or maybe even the value-cost averaging technique Bernstein mentions in Four Pillars. Wish I had done that this time 
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Mar 18, 2020 03:41
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paternity suitor posted:But as others have pointed out, you should have been adjusting your portfolio allocation over time. At 19 years you’re what, 42/43? You should probably be anywhere from 20-40% bonds. Your age in bonds was considered conservative in 2019, I bet it’ll be back in vogue now. This is hard, as the various analyses of safe withdrawal rates show bonds being a big drag on success.
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Mar 18, 2020 03:51
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I’m always up for being educated. If your views on long term retirement savings differ from the 4 pillars I’d be happy to learn where your expert opinion came from so I can read more. This is directed at any poster in this thread.
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Mar 18, 2020 05:09
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paternity suitor posted:But as others have pointed out, you should have been adjusting your portfolio allocation over time. At 19 years you’re what, 42/43? You should probably be anywhere from 20-40% bonds. Your age in bonds was considered conservative in 2019, I bet it’ll be back in vogue now. Yeah, I never claimed I was 100% stocks. Approximately 60-70 stocks with the rest in a fixed interest “cash like” fund (the actual “bond fund” they offer sucks nuts). It was a reasonable allocation for my age. I reallocated to 0% stocks the day after Trump shut down flights from Europe. I knew I was taking a loss but the voice inside me said “Don’t be greedy, eat the loss and get out now.” I do plan on getting back into stocks someday. I love owning companies. Just not before this virus (or our reaction to it) decimates enough of our economy and the general population starts thinking stocks are risky again. Of course with my luck the government will just keep pumping up the stock market by printing money and I’ll lose my savings to inflation. vOv
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Mar 18, 2020 05:12
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nelson posted:Yeah, I never claimed I was 100% stocks. Approximately 60-70 stocks with the rest in a fixed interest “cash like” fund (the actual “bond fund” they offer sucks nuts). It was a reasonable allocation for my age. Let us know when the bottom is so we can all push the buy button.
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Mar 18, 2020 05:43
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I know where the bottom is but I am not going to tell y’all. If you want the first clue you need to look under the stump on Old Man Wilbur Ross’s land. Then your adventure begins. I do think that the hot take that stock valuations should go back down to pre-Clinton levels was an interesting idea. Like if they brought back those more reasonable P/E ratios via sheer sell off.
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Mar 18, 2020 05:55
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After the market dropped 25%, I pulled my entire 401(k) and put the remnants into GBTC. When the virus starts killing people, nobody's going to know how to open their wallet files and the day will be mine.
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Mar 18, 2020 06:39
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