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FreelanceSocialist posted:Problem is puts are super expensive. I grabbed 4/15 $240 and will probably unload them before the end of the week because SPY would have to loving crater for them to be worth any real money in April. But who knows? We might see $230 this week. Before you buy, run the numbers: https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com/calculator/long-put.html Thanks. Guess it makes more sense to trade on this data on 4/2 depending on where we are at. Premiums are killing me.
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Mar 18, 2020 04:50
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| # ? Jun 7, 2024 19:25 |
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Boeing seeking $60B bailout and Trump is wet, willing, and waiting
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Mar 18, 2020 05:02
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We're almost at limit down on futures which should be 2402.75
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Mar 18, 2020 05:04
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Lote posted:Additionally, $ERI is trading below 10. CZR is trading below 8.40 and currently at $5. nice av
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Mar 18, 2020 05:23
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Lote posted:Edit: just noticed the custom title  I placed a put on Deutsche Bank before they hit record lows and I'm hoping they will drop further yet. The US and Germany both have heavy incentive to bail them out but in a just world they would go under. Deutsche Bank Bailout III: Die Deutsche Bank, Die.
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Mar 18, 2020 05:26
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https://twitter.com/RampCapitalLLC/status/1239985962446446592
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Mar 18, 2020 07:13
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tumblr hype man posted:You can buy credit default swaps on bonds (as long as someone will or has written them), which will pay you out if the bonds default. But theres one big fat problem, you need an ISDA to do it. You aren't getting one if you post on Something Awful. Also, you make a lot of good points. I'll put my puts into something else. Thanks.
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Mar 18, 2020 07:16
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With people going nuts to buy PCs and laptops, any thoughts on PC makers? Wouldn't imagine they would pop much until they release quarterly earnings.
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Mar 18, 2020 08:12
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Mar 18, 2020 08:37
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That's a good price.
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Mar 18, 2020 08:49
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I thought about buying SPY puts into the close yesterday but didn’t feel as certain about today’s open as I did Monday and Tuesday’s. I’m not sure why, yesterday’s price action wasn’t that encouraging and as I’ve been telling my friends, we aren’t at the bottom yet. Looking to open down 6.5%.
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Mar 18, 2020 11:29
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paternity suitor posted:Boeing seeking $60B bailout and Trump is wet, willing, and waiting In fairness to them covid-19 has killed way more people than Boeing now
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Mar 18, 2020 11:39
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Tokyo Sex Whale posted:In fairness to them covid-19 has killed way more people than Boeing now 
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Mar 18, 2020 11:48
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when CNBC is putting it out there that BA might have 'Negative Value' then we could be seeing a DOW 30 component run to 0 in the very near future
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Mar 18, 2020 11:49
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Incredible once again how slow the market was to realize what was going on at BA- this will get pinned on corona but thats not what is happening there. I feel like im in crazyland where you can clearly loving see what is about to happen well before it happens, which is very weird in this market. Im starting to develop a psychological bubble theory based around guys like Dalio adopting a “the market is smarter than me so i just go along with the market” attitude coupled with the explosion in passive “you cant pick stocks” mindset and we’ve ended up in an environment where you can see what is coming but everyone looks around and waits for everyone else to do something or just puts their head down and says “i stay invested no matter what” until the pain gets so great they are forced out- which is probably what is happening now. I certainly just fell victim to it by refusing to have conviction in my shorts when China started shutting down but i went through my posts going back a couple of months and im genuinely not trying to toot my horn (i hosed it up after all) but i loving nailed *everything*. How is that possible for an amateur investor? What has happened to market psychology? BTW if you bought AAWW when i mentioned it the other day you went from 16 to 24 in 2 days- like how was the market so slow to realize passenger carriers screeching to a halt was *good* for AAWW?!? wtf just happened with APRN? This is really bizarre activity Anyways, buy the gently caress out of hotels and casinos the next few weeks- airlines and cruise lines are a little tricky but i am buying SAVE based on my own anecdotal observations of load factors (i am a freight pilot and spend a lot of time in airline terminals). Im on delta this morning and they are basically dead in the water as business travel is nonexistent. SAVE is much more personal travel based, which is obviously going to get hit as well but I think this may very well cause a paradigm shift in the way and frequency businesses move people around. SAVE has only cut capacity by 5% and their flights still have a lot of people on them and their cost structure is SO MUCH BETTER than the bloated legacies. greasyhands fucked around with this message at 12:12 on Mar 18, 2020 |
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Mar 18, 2020 12:09
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greasyhands posted:im genuinely not trying to toot my horn (i hosed it up after all) but i loving nailed *everything*. How is that possible for an amateur investor? You have made many accurate observations in this thread, but the timing (I remember you pointing out JD at $30 as it tumbled to $19) is the hard part. What hotels are a buy? Seems like they're not quite as punished as some other big names yet.
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Mar 18, 2020 12:30
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Lote posted:PENN is a better put than BYD IMO. RRR, CZR, and PENN are going to 0. Boyd May survive. If you could pick only one of the casinos to buy puts in today, which would it be?
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Mar 18, 2020 12:33
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let's end stock buybacks forever, they helped get us into this mess and are generally bad for the long-term economy: https://hbr.org/2020/01/why-stock-buybacks-are-dangerous-for-the-economy https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/have-stock-buybacks-gone-too-far/ https://inequality.org/research/stock-buybacks-finance-end/ https://americanaffairsjournal.org/2018/12/share-buybacks-and-the-contradictions-of-shareholder-capitalism/ tl;dr -- stock buybacks cripple corporate competitiveness and balance sheets in order to boost executive compensation in a way that generally avoids taxes as compared to, say, dividends that reward long-term investors stock trading relevance: next time there's a huge run-up in buybacks, get ready to sell or buy puts on those stocks
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Mar 18, 2020 12:52
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pmchem posted:let's end stock buybacks forever, they helped get us into this mess and are generally bad for the long-term economy: Interesting. I’d like to learn more about the overvaluing of stocks, and poo poo like this and the P/E ratio sign of an overvalued company. I can’t know when, but I can at least try and understand what and why.
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Mar 18, 2020 12:56
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pmchem posted:let's end stock buybacks forever, they helped get us into this mess and are generally bad for the long-term economy: oh goddamn it not this again
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Mar 18, 2020 12:59
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pmchem posted:let's end stock buybacks forever Let's take the pain of letting bad companies fail.
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Mar 18, 2020 13:14
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LLCoolJD posted:Let's take the pain of letting bad companies fail. It’s easy to say poo poo like this if you haven’t lived it, but put yourself in the shoes of the politician who has the CEO of the multi billion dollar company you just let fail sitting in the seat next to on the Lolita Express and you know this guy’s ruined, this might be his last trip. How are you going to look that guy in the eye?
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Mar 18, 2020 13:23
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Tokyo Sex Whale posted:It’s easy to say poo poo like this if you haven’t lived it, but put yourself in the shoes of the politician who has the CEO of the multi billion dollar company you just let fail sitting in the seat next to on the Lolita Express and you know this guy’s ruined, this might be his last trip. How are you going to look that guy in the eye? holy poo poo. piss
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Mar 18, 2020 13:29
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Tokyo Sex Whale posted:How are you going to look that guy in the eye? You mean when they're spitroasting some street urchin from an island nation without social security numbers or when they're sitting down together at the National Prayer Breakfast?
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Mar 18, 2020 13:30
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Tokyo Sex Whale posted:It’s easy to say poo poo like this if you haven’t lived it, but put yourself in the shoes of the politician who has the CEO of the multi billion dollar company you just let fail sitting in the seat next to on the Lolita Express and you know this guy’s ruined, this might be his last trip. How are you going to look that guy in the eye? I think he's just demonstrating how absurd it looks to make a blanket argument.
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Mar 18, 2020 13:33
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/ES was halted around 1:15AM. I didn't think it hit the 5% limit down. Looks like we're going to open red. edit: holy gently caress the daily volume from yesterday... how? 
FreelanceSocialist fucked around with this message at 13:53 on Mar 18, 2020 |
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Mar 18, 2020 13:51
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1st_Panzer_Div. posted:Very odd to see mnuchen being a voice for good. Pandemics for ya This is like one of those special episodes of saturday morning TV shows where the good guys and bad guys team up to fight the really bad thing.
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Mar 18, 2020 13:56
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Does anyone ever get the feeling that people keep trying to "buy the dip" or "get stocks cheap, since they're long term," and the professional watch, give them a day to create a little mini-bubble and laugh and then just take their money the next day? It feels like a three card monte dealer giving people a few wins to whet their appetetite.
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Mar 18, 2020 13:57
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Martytoof posted:This is like one of those special episodes of saturday morning TV shows where the good guys and bad guys team up to fight the really bad thing. Doesn't the bad guy always go back to being bad at the end, after they chase away the really bad thing? They also never really kill it - the writers like to leave the door open for a return. That's what this feels like. SlyFrog posted:Does anyone ever get the feeling that people keep trying to "buy the dip" or "get stocks cheap, since they're long term," and the professional watch, give them a day to create a little mini-bubble and laugh and then just take their money the next day? Of course. I feel that way when things are going well, even. We're all hosed and we don't even get to see who's doing it.
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Mar 18, 2020 13:59
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fougera posted:Ah my bad. Sorry its been insane in the markets. Reposting. Hilariously, FINRA rules prohibit traders at investment banks from working from home. Guess who's getting COVID? Separately, there's a very bitter irony that Dodd Frank is partially to blame. Yup, the law that was supposed to save us from the next crisis.
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Mar 18, 2020 14:04
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Directly bail out a fund (or three)?
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Mar 18, 2020 14:13
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FreelanceSocialist posted:Directly bail out a fund (or three)? Yup. Well technically it's already being done via the Fed repo and credit window. Most of you don't quite understand the intentions of these measures; think Long Term Capital.
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Mar 18, 2020 14:20
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20% unemployment is pretty horrifying. We hit 24.9% during The Great Depression.
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Mar 18, 2020 14:21
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LTCM is what comes to mind. I mean, I expected "indirect" bailouts - like propping up BA or the airlines saving the bacon of some hedge fund who was on the wrong side of that.
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Mar 18, 2020 14:23
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Lote posted:PENN is a better put than BYD IMO. RRR, CZR, and PENN are going to 0. Boyd May survive. Lote any insights on if/when we might see some sort of bailout on the casino industry? Trying to judge just how long to hold these puts. Also, RRR and PENN are surprisingly not down as much as BYD, percentage wise, but that might just be because they don't have as far to fall.
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Mar 18, 2020 14:34
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FreelanceSocialist posted:LTCM is what comes to mind. I mean, I expected "indirect" bailouts - like propping up BA or the airlines saving the bacon of some hedge fund who was on the wrong side of that. No this is to prevent stocks, bonds, gold, and literally everything from selling off and causing bank runs etc..
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Mar 18, 2020 14:38
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fougera posted:Reposting. dodd frank was supposed to protect us against a financial crisis and bank malfeasance, not a global viral pandemic
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Mar 18, 2020 14:41
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I agree the big hotel operators have not been hit that hard, and could fall significantly further and as they get cheaper they just become better buys. Just like JD was a good buy at $30 and became a phenomenal buy at $19 (i was beating the drum as hard as i could at $19). I like some of the hotel REITs as they are getting cheaper and cheaper even as rates get lower and lower, which is a good thing for them. CPLG and CLDT are two good ones. I like MAR very soon, i think the other guys $60 target is a good start. I would like to make a mathematical point about stocks that crater around 75% during market panics. If you buy a stock 75% off of its high, and you assume the company is not going out of business or restructuring and will eventually recover. If it takes 5 years to recover its ATH value, you are still looking at a more than 30% per annum return for 5 years. Stocks were expensive prior to this meltdown, but they were not irrationally bubbly- just on the high range of historical norms and i might add the market valuation is distorted by big techs gigantic weighting and gigantic valuations- old school businesses were largely much more reasonably priced. Buying a stock down 75% requires it to *quadruple* to get back to where it started. Thats leaves you a very long timeline to pick good businesses and give them time to reorient after a shock and enjoy above historical average returns. This is the time to start getting aggressive. Do *not* lever yourself up in a way that will trap you and force liquidate you if the market keeps going down, start buying now and buy more as it drops and eventually stabilizes. I am going to start pulling equity out of some properties soon and leveraging up in that manner
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Mar 18, 2020 14:42
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:dodd frank was supposed to protect us against a financial crisis and bank malfeasance, not a global viral pandemic Well that was pretty shortsighted of dodd. And frank, for that matter
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Mar 18, 2020 14:43
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| # ? Jun 7, 2024 19:25 |
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:dodd frank was supposed to protect us against a financial crisis and bank malfeasance, not a global viral pandemic You are missing the point. Dodd Frank is currently prohibiting banks from lending and trading where lending and trading needs to happen.
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Mar 18, 2020 14:44
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