The NFL Draft Thread 2020 - it's ok if he hurts his leg he's got tua them

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Football Funhouse > The NFL Draft Thread 2020 - it's ok if he hurts his leg he's got tua them

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Eifert Posting: Apr 1, 2007; Most of the time he catches it every time.; Grimey Drawer

https://imgur.com/a/rb5SICP

I like to use fanspeak during downtime at work. Apparently in this timeline Isaiah killed a sex worker.

# ? Mar 24, 2020 18:35

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# ? Jun 3, 2024 00:36

Ches Neckbeard: Dec 3, 2005; You're all garbage, back up the truck BACK IT UP!

Gandy- golden going to die of covid before the draft happens

# ? Mar 24, 2020 18:59

Ehud: Sep 19, 2003; football.

https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1242925666942758914?s=20

https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1242925824086507527?s=20

# ? Mar 25, 2020 22:58

Shimrra Jamaane: Aug 10, 2007; Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

Ehud posted:

https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1242925666942758914?s=20

https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1242925824086507527?s=20

Can�t wait for all of the stupid technical glitches.

# ? Mar 25, 2020 23:03

indigi: Jul 20, 2004; ^{how can we not talk about family

when family's all that we got?}

"A virtual experience like never before" may be overselling it a tad, Ian

# ? Mar 25, 2020 23:09

Play: Apr 25, 2006; Strong stroll for a mangy stray

indigi posted:

"A virtual experience like never before" may be overselling it a tad, Ian

well technically something can be a virtual experience like never before while also being complete poo poo, so there's some room to move

# ? Mar 25, 2020 23:46

Ehud: Sep 19, 2003; football.

This is gonna be a weird draft

https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1243320919621279744?s=20

# ? Mar 27, 2020 01:07

Shimrra Jamaane: Aug 10, 2007; Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

They should have done the idea to do each round a night just to fill content. It would be morbidly fascinating seeing ESPN have to talk 10 minutes about 7th round draft picks.

# ? Mar 27, 2020 01:12

DariusLikewise: Oct 4, 2008; You wore that on Halloween?

Can't wait until we see someones dick live on TV because they weren't ready for the cutover

# ? Mar 27, 2020 16:25

Shimrra Jamaane: Aug 10, 2007; Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

DariusLikewise posted:

Can't wait until we see someones dick live on TV because they weren't ready for the cutover

Don�t get my hopes up.

# ? Mar 27, 2020 16:27

Silly Burrito: Nov 27, 2007; SET A COURSE FOR
THE FLAVOR QUADRANT

DariusLikewise posted:

Can't wait until we see someones dick live on TV because they weren't ready for the cutover

Didn�t we see Andrew�s luck?

# ? Mar 27, 2020 16:31

Diva Cupcake: Aug 15, 2005

Anyone have ESPN+ and can post this year's QBASE?

https://www.espn.com/nhl/insider/story/_/id/28953774/2020-nfl-draft-qb-projections-why-jordan-love-risky

# ? Mar 27, 2020 17:06

korrandark: Jan 5, 2009

quote:

Joe Burrow, LSU Tigers
Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 2

Mean projection in Years 3-5: 759 DYAR
Bust (less than 500 DYAR): 42%
Adequate starter (500-1499 DYAR): 27%
Upper tier (1500-2500 DYAR): 18%
Elite (greater than 2500 DYAR): 13%

Joe Burrow's 2019 season was among the greatest in college football history. He set a record with 60 touchdown passes. His completion rate of 76.3% was the second highest ever. His 12.5 adjusted passing yards per attempt ranked fourth. He did this against an above-average schedule in the SEC.

Burrow's forecast takes a small hit from playing alongside a very high amount of draftable talent, highlighted by likely first-round picks Justin Jefferson (this year) and Ja'Marr Chase (next year). But the experience variable is the main reason Burrow's QBASE projection is not higher. The system still identifies the risk that comes with drafting a quarterback with only two years of starting experience. Nonetheless, Burrow has the second-highest projection ever for a quarterback with less than three years of starting experience.

Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama Crimson Tide
Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 7

Mean projection in Years 3-5: 653 DYAR
Bust (less than 500 DYAR): 46%
Adequate starter (500-1499 DYAR): 27%
Upper tier (1500-2500 DYAR): 19%
Elite (greater than 2500 DYAR): 8%

As a sophomore, Tagovailoa had 12.8 adjusted passing yards per attempt, the third-highest number ever. As a junior, Tagovailoa had 13.4 adjusted passing yards per attempt before he injured his hip. That would be the highest number ever if Tagovailoa had not missed time and failed to qualify for College Football Reference's historical rankings. So the elements of QBASE based on past performance like Tagovailoa an awful lot.
On the other hand, QBASE has a variable to discount quarterbacks whose stats are helped by playing with a lot of draftable talent at the wide receiver and offensive line positions. And in the history of QBASE, which goes back to 1997, no quarterback played with more talent in his final college season than Tagovailoa in 2019.

Three different Alabama teammates are forecast to be top-20 picks in the upcoming draft: tackle Jedrick Wills Jr. and wide receivers Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs III. Two more of Tagovailoa's offensive teammates are likely to be top-10 picks in next year's draft: tackle Alex Leatherwood and wide receiver Jaylen Waddle. Receiver DeVonta Smith and guard Deonte Brown are also likely to be drafted in 2021. As a result, the projected draft value for Tagovailoa's teammates is over 60% higher than the previous quarterback who played with the most draftable talent, Danny Wuerffel in 1997.

(Burrow is also in the top five for teammate value, along with Johnny Manziel and Matt Leinart.)

Tagovailoa's schedule also wasn't as hard as you might expect for the SEC; due to his injury, he missed Auburn (fifth in SP+ defense) and the bowl game with Michigan (11th).

These elements drop Tagovailoa only a little bit, however. So he still has one of the all-time best QBASE projections for a quarterback with only two years of starting experience.

Jordan Love, Utah State Aggies
Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 22

Mean projection in Years 3-5: 57 DYAR
Bust (less than 500 DYAR): 64%
Adequate starter (500-1499 DYAR): 23%
Upper tier (1500-2500 DYAR): 10%
Elite (greater than 2500 DYAR): 2%

Scouts are high on Love's arm talent and smooth release, but his final year of college was quite unimpressive. Thanks in part to 17 interceptions with only 20 touchdowns, his already mediocre 7.2 yards per attempt number becomes 6.4 adjusted yards per attempt. Over the past decade, the only top-100 pick with a lower adjusted yards per attempt in his final college season was C.J. Beathard. Love had this poor performance against the easiest schedule of pass defenses faced by any of this year's top quarterback prospects.

But there's an asterisk here, which is that Love's performance declined dramatically between his sophomore and junior seasons. In 2018, Love had a far more impressive 9.4 adjusted yards per attempt, with 32 touchdowns and six interceptions. If Love had come out a year ago, he would have had a higher projection (420 DYAR). Teams considering Love in this year's draft need to watch two years' worth of film and figure out what changed for him in 2019.

Justin Herbert, Oregon Ducks
Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 23

Mean projection in Years 3-5: 689 DYAR
Bust (less than 500 DYAR): 43%
Adequate starter (500-1499 DYAR): 28%
Upper tier (1500-2500 DYAR): 19%
Elite (greater than 2500 DYAR): 11%

Herbert has started for two full seasons and two partial seasons at Oregon, so we counted him with three seasons for the purposes of QBASE. That gives him the second-best projection this year, ahead of Tagovailoa but still behind Burrow. Where Herbert takes a bit of a hit is that Oregon was only 36th in FBS in passing SP+ this season.

Jake Fromm, Georgia Bulldogs
Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 57

Mean projection in Years 3-5: 439 DYAR
Bust (less than 500 DYAR): 51%
Adequate starter (500-1499 DYAR): 28%
Upper tier (1500-2500 DYAR): 15%
Elite (greater than 2500 DYAR): 7%

Fromm gets a boost in QBASE from three years of starting experience. Both his 8.1 adjusted yards per attempt and 61% completion rate last season are below the mean for top-100 picks over the past 20 years, but he played the hardest schedule among this year's top quarterback prospects. And like Love, Fromm declined in his final season, as he had a 67% completion rate and 10.1 adjusted yards per attempt in 2018. Unlike Love, Fromm's QBASE projection would have been lower had he come out a year ago with less experience (208 DYAR).

Jacob Eason, Washington Huskies
Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 60

Mean projection in Years 3-5: -98 DYAR
Bust (less than 500 DYAR): 68%
Adequate starter (500-1499 DYAR): 21%
Upper tier (1500-2500 DYAR): 9%
Elite (greater than 2500 DYAR): 2%

Eason's 2019 season stats were close to the mean for top-100 quarterback prospects, but he put up those numbers against an easier-than-average schedule. Combine that with a lower expected draft position (end of the second round) and only two years of starting experience, and Eason does poorly in our QBASE projections.

Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma Sooners
Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 98

Mean projection in Years 3-5: 410 DYAR
Bust (less than 500 DYAR): 51%
Adequate starter (500-1499 DYAR): 25%
Upper tier (1500-2500 DYAR): 16%
Elite (greater than 2500 DYAR): 7%

The QBASE system likes Hurts even though he's projected to be a late third- or early fourth-round pick. He has three years of starting experience and had awesome statistics at Oklahoma in his senior season: 70% completion rate and 12.2 adjusted yards per attempt. That latter number is the sixth-highest qualifying AYPA number in FBS history. But when you look at the five players ahead of him, you sense the biggest question about Hurts. Those players include Baker Mayfield twice and Kyler Murray. Four of the top six APYA seasons ever come from Lincoln Riley's Oklahoma offense. How much of Hurts' performance is Hurts, and how much is the offense, especially considering the big jump in Hurts' stats from his two starting seasons at Alabama to last season at Oklahoma?

Anthony Gordon, Washington State Cougars
Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 116

Mean projection in Years 3-5: -234 DYAR
Bust (less than 500 DYAR): 72%
Adequate starter (500-1499 DYAR): 20%
Upper tier (1500-2500 DYAR): 7%
Elite (greater than 2500 DYAR): 1%

It's hard to put too much faith in Gordon considering that his only season as a starter came as a redshirt senior. Even Gordon's good-looking stats aren't as impressive as they might seem at first glance. He was second in FBS with 5,579 passing yards and fourth with 48 touchdowns, but those stats were partially the product of ranking first in pass attempts in Mike Leach's pass-friendly Washington State offense. Gordon was also helped by an easier schedule in the offense-friendly Pac-12. His 8.4 adjusted passing yards per attempt ranked only sixth in the conference.

# ? Mar 27, 2020 17:34

Diva Cupcake: Aug 15, 2005

Cool. Thanks. Low scores this year it seems.

# ? Mar 27, 2020 18:47

hifi: Jul 25, 2012

According to the NFL, teams may contact an unlimited number of incoming rookies up to three times per week, for up to one hour at a time.

Hi Im with the cincinatti bengals

Take me off your list click

# ? Mar 30, 2020 01:44

Cavauro: Jan 9, 2008

Probably only 5 or 6 players would do that

# ? Mar 30, 2020 01:47

Amy Pole Her: Jun 17, 2002

Cavauro posted:

Probably only 5 or 6 players would do that

I dunno man we should probably walk through all the possibilities of who would do this

# ? Mar 30, 2020 02:09

Amy Pole Her: Jun 17, 2002

Burrow to Miami
Anyone to LAC
A QB to NYJ

# ? Mar 30, 2020 02:11

a neat cape: Feb 22, 2007; Aw hunny, these came out GREAT!

Amy Pole Her posted:

Anyone to LAC

what

# ? Mar 30, 2020 02:15

Amy Pole Her: Jun 17, 2002

It appears players are nervous about playing for LAC due to concerns about where they�re going to end up and over the ownership, at least in the world of agents. Same poo poo we laugh at and you pull your hair out over, players see and don�t like. I get it.

It�s like when Clowney said lol no to Miami

Edit or how Burrow has expressed privately he�d like to stay in Ohio. These people are humans. And this is a job!

Amy Pole Her fucked around with this message at 03:11 on Mar 30, 2020

# ? Mar 30, 2020 03:08

a neat cape: Feb 22, 2007; Aw hunny, these came out GREAT!

# ? Mar 30, 2020 03:10

Eifert Posting: Apr 1, 2007; Most of the time he catches it every time.; Grimey Drawer

I don't think Joe has said anything to indicate his preferences at all outside of direct questions in public spaces. The media (mostly led by Florio) drove the narrative that he didn't want Cinci and his parents were the ones saying he wanted to stay in Ohio. Joe's spoken stance since the beginning has been "I don't know if I'm the #1 pick. I'll play wherever." That was interpreted as him pleading for a trade. He has said publically that it would be nice to be close to family but not that he's dying for it.

As a Bengals fan I would be happier if he was doing the Icky Shuffle while trolling Carson on twitter that he was going to look better in #9, but Tua has bern very vocal in favor of Miami and Miami has been playing cool. Also who knows if the Bengals wake up in FA if the media wasn't making GBS threads on them.

# ? Mar 30, 2020 16:31

Amy Pole Her: Jun 17, 2002

Eifert Posting posted:

I don't think Joe has said anything to indicate his preferences at all outside of direct questions in public spaces.

Quite a few people in the know appear to disagree! I don�t think it matters, regardless. Bengals have the pick.

# ? Mar 30, 2020 16:36

Play: Apr 25, 2006; Strong stroll for a mangy stray

He seemed to be saying for a moment that he would consider trying to force something (he made some comment about him having all the "leverage" which a lot of people interpreted in that way) but he seems to have walked it all back and I think he'll just play, doesn't seem to be another Eli Manning situation.

A better question than whether he will or not is whether he should or not. I'm not sure really

# ? Mar 30, 2020 16:56

Ehud: Sep 19, 2003; football.

My Dolphins QB preferences:

1) Try to trade up to 1 for Burrow. I'm fine if it takes all three firsts.
2) Trade up to 3 for Tua.

There is no 3. I don't want any of these other QB's. I'm sick of being in QB purgatory. We traded away a bunch of assets to put ourselves in position to get a top QB. If we exit the draft with a lovely project QB then I'm going to be incredibly disappointed.

# ? Mar 30, 2020 16:59

Play: Apr 25, 2006; Strong stroll for a mangy stray

Ehud posted:

My Dolphins QB preferences:

1) Try to trade up to 1 for Burrow. I'm fine if it takes all three firsts.
2) Trade up to 3 for Tua.

There is no 3. I don't want any of these other QB's. I'm sick of being in QB purgatory. We traded away a bunch of assets to put ourselves in position to get a top QB. If we exit the draft with a lovely project QB then I'm going to be incredibly disappointed.

Agreed, if they don't get one of those two guys with the best chance they'll have that'll be a huge fuckup. I've been watching a lot of Tua film recently, I'm convinced that he can be a very solid starter at the worst. Hopefully they don't outthink themselves and just get the dude no matter what

# ? Mar 30, 2020 17:01

Eifert Posting: Apr 1, 2007; Most of the time he catches it every time.; Grimey Drawer

Amy Pole Her posted:

Quite a few people in the know appear to disagree! I don’t think it matters, regardless. Bengals have the pick.

If you've heard something I haven't I'd be interested to hear it. I'm not trying to be lovely, in case it isn't clear.

Edit: I don't buy the Fins being out on Tua. Miami is so into smoke screens the whole "lying season" thing goes double for them. I'd be more concerned if Miami was talking Tua up.

Eifert Posting fucked around with this message at 17:07 on Mar 30, 2020

# ? Mar 30, 2020 17:04

Amy Pole Her: Jun 17, 2002

Eifert Posting posted:

If you've heard something I haven't I'd be interested to hear it. I'm not trying to be lovely, in case it isn't clear.

Edit: I don't buy the Fins being out on Tua. Miami is so into smoke screens the whole "lying season" thing goes double for them. I'd be more concerned if Miami was talking Tua up.

? Who said they�re out on Tua? It�s guaranteed they�d gonna take him @ 5, maybe at 3, depends how these trade talks with Howard go

As for Burrow, same agent buddy of mine who has connected me with solid info throughout the year said Burrow has made it clear he wants to stay in Ohio to play football and would prefer to not go to a limelight city like LA, NY, MIA etc.

Privately Herberts agent says the same thing - he is not interested in being super famous. No Russel Wilson level shill.

The Chargers thing was agents struggling to get players interested in long term deals with them due to the uncertainty around the team.

But honestly not many long term deals. Lots of guys are betting 2022 will see a 20% increase in cap and thus contracts and they want to cash in

# ? Mar 30, 2020 19:33

Ehud: Sep 19, 2003; football.

I have a hard time believing that big dick Joe has a problem with the limelight.

and if he does then he should go to Miami where no one gives a poo poo about football

# ? Mar 30, 2020 19:39

Cavauro: Jan 9, 2008

There is no reason anyone would keep that a cool secret 2 have and share with their friends or whatever. He demonstrably has enjoyed the spotlight. If he wants to go back to Ohio it's because that's the #1 pick and someone isn't putting 2+2 together on it

# ? Mar 30, 2020 19:55

Cavauro: Jan 9, 2008

I'm sorry for lying about burrow, saying that he likes to be 'seen'. I was trying to look like i know stuff, but I really don't know anything. i don't know what the best defensive formations are for different stuff or how to describe good technique for any position or anything. I've withdrawn my post, so act like it's not there.

# ? Mar 30, 2020 20:03

Amy Pole Her: Jun 17, 2002

Ehud posted:

I have a hard time believing that big dick Joe has a problem with the limelight.

and if he does then he should go to Miami where no one gives a poo poo about football

Yeah but you not believing it usually ends up solidifying my info so I�m happy with this (unless I�m
Confusing another fin poster who doubted the Brady to the Bucs thing)

But it was more he wanted to play in Ohio than it was anti limelight. I think Herbert is more the anti limelight i think Joe just wants it how he wants it

Amy Pole Her fucked around with this message at 20:06 on Mar 30, 2020

# ? Mar 30, 2020 20:04

Ehud: Sep 19, 2003; football.

Amy Pole Her posted:

Yeah but you not believing it usually ends up solidifying my info so I�m happy with this (unless I�m
Confusing another fin poster who doubted the Brady to the Bucs thing)

But it was more he wanted to play in Ohio than it was anti limelight. I think Herbert is more the anti limelight i think Joe just wants it how he wants it

Call me incredulous, but I have a very hard time believing that Brady revealed his preferred destination to some random guys back in January while hanging out on a golf course.

# ? Mar 30, 2020 20:40

Eifert Posting: Apr 1, 2007; Most of the time he catches it every time.; Grimey Drawer

Cool, that is news to me but it makes sense considering his Heisman speech.

The Tua stuff I mentioned was mostly right after the combine, some hearsay that the dolphins were cool to him in interviews and a few rumors they like Herb (please make sure your loved ones are in a healthy mental state if they tell you they like Herbert).

# ? Mar 30, 2020 21:25

Amy Pole Her: Jun 17, 2002

Ehud posted:

Call me incredulous, but I have a very hard time believing that Brady revealed his preferred destination to some random guys back in January while hanging out on a golf course.

And yet history proved that he did. So what�s the problem here? And they weren�t random, as I said in the very first post about the subject. Sounds like a silly hang up ya got.

# ? Mar 30, 2020 21:40

Ehud: Sep 19, 2003; football.

Amy Pole Her posted:

And yet history proved that he did. So what�s the problem here? And they weren�t random, as I said in the very first post about the subject. Sounds like a silly hang up ya got.

I find it impossible to believe that Brady, who plays everything so close to the vest, freely shared that information back in January. What would his motivation be to leak that info to your source?

How is it that all the well connected sports journalists couldn�t get to the bottom of it? Why did we get reports that Brady decided to leave the Patriots in March after Belichick was a dick on the phone?

Just to be clear - I�m not saying I think you�re being dishonest or anything. I think whoever told you the story is being dishonest. That�s my default position on any of these �uncle works for Nintendo� type stories. The fact that Brady ended up in Tampa doesn�t change my mind. Getting the team right doesn�t mean the guy�s story was true. Any of us could have attached a story to a prediction and had like a 33% chance (Pats, Bucs, Chargers) of getting the team right. It doesn�t mean we knew jack poo poo :shrug:

# ? Mar 30, 2020 23:27

Amy Pole Her: Jun 17, 2002

I bring joy and spread advanced cheer for my AFCEast Bros with the news of the cheater leaving for Tampa and all you can do is hate hate hate.

For shame. I can only hope Tua will bring us back together.

# ? Mar 31, 2020 00:06

Ehud: Sep 19, 2003; football.

Amy Pole Her posted:

I bring joy and spread advanced cheer for my AFCEast Bros with the news of the cheater leaving for Tampa and all you can do is hate hate hate.

For shame. I can only hope Tua will bring us back together.

lol I�m just a bored, dumb rear end in a top hat right now

# ? Mar 31, 2020 00:09

Shimrra Jamaane: Aug 10, 2007; Obscure to all except those well-versed in Yuuzhan Vong lore.

Amy Pole Her posted:

I bring joy and spread advanced cheer for my AFCEast Bros with the news of the cheater leaving for Tampa and all you can do is hate hate hate.

For shame. I can only hope Tua will bring us back together.

Tua to the Pats when he falls to 23

# ? Mar 31, 2020 00:44

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# ? Jun 3, 2024 00:36

Amy Pole Her: Jun 17, 2002

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

Tua to the Pats when he falls to 23

All due respect but gently caress off you�ve had your time

# ? Mar 31, 2020 01:49

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Football Funhouse > The NFL Draft Thread 2020 - it's ok if he hurts his leg he's got tua them

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