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https://twitter.com/jimtankersley/status/1245795106520776706 A quick recovery, huh? 
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Apr 3, 2020 03:21
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enraged_camel posted:A quick recovery, huh? quote:CBO’s projections also included the possibility of later outbreaks of the virus. To account for that possibility, social distancing was projected to diminish by only three-quarters, on average, during the second half of the year. And CBO expected the effects of job losses and business closures to be felt for some time; the unemployment rate underlying the cost estimate was 9 percent at the end of 2021. It seems quite dependent upon the duration of the social distancing measures.  Femtosecond posted:I haven't sold yet because I'm dumb 
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Apr 3, 2020 03:32
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enraged_camel posted:https://twitter.com/jimtankersley/status/1245795106520776706 For real, my work is planning for a 2 year reduction in revenue and cutting costs accordingly. Every manager is getting their budget cut to compliance only projects. No training, no travel. No budget. Not cutting executive wages and stock incentives yet.
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Apr 3, 2020 03:32
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MomJeans420 posted:I hope one day (probably years in the future) someone is able to unravel all the trades made by people close to him in the hour before he tweets, because I'm sure someone is making billions off of this. Hell, if you knew a week or two before he tweeted it could look slightly more plausible you weren't trading on inside information. This would make for a loving amazing documentary
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Apr 3, 2020 03:38
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lol my favorite stock trading twitter account is BACK https://twitter.com/BagholderQuotes/status/1245904204549554176
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Apr 3, 2020 03:43
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Oscar Wild posted:For real, my work is planning for a 2 year reduction in revenue and cutting costs accordingly. Every manager is getting their budget cut to compliance only projects. No training, no travel. No budget. Yeah, I'm seeing similar trends all over. My former employer laid off 50 of their 90 employees "temporarily", but I know for a fact that they have no means of hiring them back until at least the end of the year. They're running super lean now as it is, desperately hoping that enough of their clients can stay in business to continue paying their invoices, and even if the economy recovers over summer, they will want to build significant cash reserves before they go on a hiring spree again, and that will take months even under the best circumstances.
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Apr 3, 2020 03:45
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Wait wait, these loans and grants are first come first served? Holy poo poo... its all gonna be gone so fast, and it will just go to the guys who have the money to have the application all polished up and ready to jump through the hoops with no issues?
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Apr 3, 2020 03:59
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Baddog posted:Wait wait, these loans and grants are first come first served? 
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Apr 3, 2020 04:07
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Baddog posted:Wait wait, these loans and grants are first come first served? You sweet summer child, it isn't even clear when they actually open up for application. We don't know if it's at Midnight Eastern, Midnight Pacific (some other midnight), or some time during the day tomorrow. This isn't a great sign either: "The second source said the call was a “mess and a dumpster fire” and that the Treasury and SBA are not coordinated and were unable to have answers ready for basic questions. The source was not confident the program would launch tomorrow." https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/02/dire-feelings-on-main-street-on-eve-of-small-business-lending-program-launch.html
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Apr 3, 2020 04:11
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tumblr hype man posted:You sweet summer child, it isn't even clear when they actually open up for application. We don't know if it's at Midnight Eastern, Midnight Pacific (some other midnight), or some time during the day tomorrow. Sounds good, SPY +7% tomorrow based on that
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Apr 3, 2020 04:19
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skipdogg posted:My wife works at a credit union and she’s getting tons of calls from her business owner members about these SBA loans and they don’t even offer them. She’s basically getting bitched out all day and it’s definitely stressing her out. I can’t imagine how much more stressful it would be if they did offer them.
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Apr 3, 2020 04:33
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MomJeans420 posted:I hope one day (probably years in the future) someone is able to unravel all the trades made by people close to him in the hour before he tweets, because I'm sure someone is making billions off of this. Hell, if you knew a week or two before he tweeted it could look slightly more plausible you weren't trading on inside information. I’ve been discussing this with another guy at work who does a bit of share trading. We’re adamant that someone in his inner circle just buys a bunch of options and then tells Trump what to tweet about.
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Apr 3, 2020 04:36
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If CHDN makes it down to 60 again think I will try to pick that up as well.
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Apr 3, 2020 04:52
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enraged_camel posted:Yeah, I'm seeing similar trends all over. My former employer laid off 50 of their 90 employees "temporarily", but I know for a fact that they have no means of hiring them back until at least the end of the year. They're running super lean now as it is, desperately hoping that enough of their clients can stay in business to continue paying their invoices, and even if the economy recovers over summer, they will want to build significant cash reserves before they go on a hiring spree again, and that will take months even under the best circumstances. I am jammed with a bunch of work I neglected to do because I was focusing on losing money buying puts, but I will write a long post this weekend about what companies are doing with workers, how CARES will affect unemployment, what I think are likely admin shenanigans, and other subjects that will hopefully inform everyone’s gambling.
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Apr 3, 2020 05:02
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Woof, $LK fraud and 4/3 puts dying worthless. Let’s gooooooo 4/24!
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Apr 3, 2020 08:11
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If BA touches $100 again I might have to grab more shares for my Responsible Adult Investment Account. But I'd have to pull cash out of my Degenerate Gaming Account to do it. Which means less cash for degenerate gambling.  edit: and here is a better version of that chart from Twitter that annoyed me FreelanceSocialist fucked around with this message at 13:34 on Apr 3, 2020 |
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Apr 3, 2020 13:31
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drat, well definitely did not get on re-entry for OIL 
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Apr 3, 2020 13:39
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Oil still going up even though Russia/SA agreed that they'll hold more talks to discuss the matter that resulted in the price war the SA wanted. This really is a market willing to bid on any sort of good news.
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Apr 3, 2020 13:42
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I grabbed some puts on USO because I think we're headed back to $5 after this.
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Apr 3, 2020 13:46
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I can see the SA agreeing to cuts because even at this price they can accomplish their main goal of killing non-traditional oil producers, since at ~$30 (where it is right now) that's still very much unprofitable, and the current health and business environment isn't going to support continued exploration anyway. That'd be the sensible thing. But I think that ignores demand side (all sorts of people have stopped driving. Skies have cleared and waters run clean, literally.) and $30 made sense during the 2008 recession because people still needed to travel to find work, visit friends, fly on jets and go on vacation. The vast majority of the population was still employed, after all, and even unemployed people needed to travel. But travel is specifically verboten unless necessary. Jets are grounded, people are fearful of even going outside. The current price seems to ignore you have to find buyers, and the data is that travel is frozen, like deep-space adrift in a sunless dark frozen. Further, there's every chance the Saudis will go "we like seeing the world burn" because frankly they aren't hurting as badly with $10 oil as everyone else, and this is a means to recapture influence they lost recently. I would expect modest production cuts that in the end won't make a dent in the glut while refineries start slowing down from lack of personnel and demand and the pipelines back up because no one wants or can use the product.
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Apr 3, 2020 14:22
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If/when Trump makes this announcement, that could cause some pressure on the markets. But it seems he's been doing his news conferences at 5pm so by Monday, we'll have absorbed the information. https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1246029399113240576
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Apr 3, 2020 14:25
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Looks like we're in for a wild day today.
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Apr 3, 2020 14:28
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Freezer posted:Looks like we're in for a wild day today. Gonna laugh when we end just about totally flat, then get a massive after-hours dump.
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Apr 3, 2020 14:30
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quote:
Lol this is through March 12 and we’re almost opening green.
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Apr 3, 2020 14:31
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poo poo like this is why people make fun of any true believers in the stock market. Speculation is real and not your friend. No wonder nobody gives a poo poo about dying for the sake of number.
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Apr 3, 2020 14:34
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Thread: battlestations on TSLA. I know some of you are pretty close to this one, how far out should the expiration be if we want to capture the next catalyst?
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Apr 3, 2020 14:35
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Closed my 5x USO 06/17 $4 Call @ $0.98 for $2.15. Should have yolo'd it at $2.90 before open 'cause the first trade filled @$3.10. 
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Apr 3, 2020 14:38
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I think a lot of traders are seeing this as a one-off event - yes there are a lot of jobs lost, but the expectations right now are that most all those jobs will pick right up again once the all-clear is given, so it's just a matter of the government making everyone whole for the period of time that they're down. I think that's why these jobs numbers are being shrugged off. I think those expectations will eventually change, but all the cheerleading right now is giving people a false sense of optimism. Eventually reality will set in, but it may be a slow net descent rather than a sharp shock to the bottom.
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Apr 3, 2020 14:39
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mortgage REIT things all dumping
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Apr 3, 2020 14:40
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Maybe we'll have a run up to close. How much worse can the weekend news be at this point?
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Apr 3, 2020 14:43
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saintonan posted:I think a lot of traders are seeing this as a one-off event - yes there are a lot of jobs lost, but the expectations right now are that most all those jobs will pick right up again once the all-clear is given, so it's just a matter of the government making everyone whole for the period of time that they're down. I think that's why these jobs numbers are being shrugged off. I think those expectations will eventually change, but all the cheerleading right now is giving people a false sense of optimism. Eventually reality will set in, but it may be a slow net descent rather than a sharp shock to the bottom. Exited my SPY put positions this morning for a slight loss. Timing the market is a dumb thing to do, but I at least can tell that my timing right now isn't correct.
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Apr 3, 2020 14:44
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java posted:Exited my SPY put positions this morning for a slight loss. Timing the market is a dumb thing to do, but I at least can tell that my timing right now isn't correct. hmm theyt gonna dump this sucker by EOD
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Apr 3, 2020 14:47
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Picked up some cheap 4/17 UCO OTM calls. If stuff like this: https://twitter.com/FirstSquawk/status/1245985012723269632 https://twitter.com/FirstSquawk/status/1246066470976499712 ...comes to pass we might see some real movement.
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Apr 3, 2020 14:47
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Easy 10 pts when Pelosi said we need a 4th bill (I wrote down the time and entry price) but I’m still gun shy. I need to actually execute few good trades to get my confidence back.saintonan posted:Picked up some cheap 4/17 UCO OTM calls. If stuff like this: Josh Lyman fucked around with this message at 14:52 on Apr 3, 2020 |
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Apr 3, 2020 14:50
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Jack Daniels posted:mortgage REIT things all dumping Here's a piece of news: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/armour-residential-reit-inc-announces-104510041.html This one lost ~50% of its book value over the last three months and they're moving away from a definite $0.17 a month dividend to an unknown quarterly one. ARR invests in mostly agency MBS, btw, the safest ones out there.
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Apr 3, 2020 14:50
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Oscar Wild posted:Bought some USO $5 Jan 2021 calls at .80. Will not hold until expiration. Out at 1.63. A very good week.
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Apr 3, 2020 14:50
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Agronox posted:Here's a piece of news: ouch also saw this: U.S. Holds Off on Extending Virus Aid to Mortgage Servicers https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-02/u-s-holds-off-on-extending-virus-aid-to-mortgage-servicers?sref=HnxyJbEh
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Apr 3, 2020 14:57
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Really want to get puts on Simon properties.
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Apr 3, 2020 15:01
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saintonan posted:I think a lot of traders are seeing this as a one-off event - yes there are a lot of jobs lost, but the expectations right now are that most all those jobs will pick right up again once the all-clear is given, so it's just a matter of the government making everyone whole for the period of time that they're down. I think that's why these jobs numbers are being shrugged off. I think those expectations will eventually change, but all the cheerleading right now is giving people a false sense of optimism. Eventually reality will set in, but it may be a slow net descent rather than a sharp shock to the bottom. People don't get hired back quickly. I don't think that has ever happened in past business cycles. The best case scenario is you have people re-emerging with more debt trying to service prior levels of demand. The likely scenario is you have higher debt and lower demand. But those traders you are mentioning don't really think of it as part of a cycle.
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Apr 3, 2020 15:03
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You guys trying to short oil in the 20s are absolutely insane, it fundamentally cannot work at that price and not a single producer on earth wants it there. Yes it can go there during some kind of black swan historic shock doubled up with a price war but it *will not* stay there and every single oil speculator on earth knows that and will try to be in front of the inevitable move up. Even if you make money, you are being dumb.
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