|
saintonan posted:Picked up some cheap 4/17 UCO OTM calls. If stuff like this: Anti-consumer collusion right here. Would anyone have standing to sue though?
|
#
?
Apr 3, 2020 15:11
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 7, 2024 15:39 |
|
|
java posted:Gonna laugh when we end just about totally flat, then get a massive after-hours dump. And I think you might be right!
|
|
#
?
Apr 3, 2020 15:11
|
|
|
fougera posted:But those traders you are mentioning don't really think of it as part of a cycle. Almost everything I hear is something like "yeah Q2 is gonna be bad but by Q4 we'll be back on track and shooting higher again". I think there has been and will be much more durable damage done, and it'll take a lot longer than that to return to what we think of now as a normal economy. I'm not sure how to play that, though, because it cuts strongly against what market sentiment is right now.
|
|
#
?
Apr 3, 2020 15:15
|
|
|
greasyhands posted:You guys trying to short oil in the 20s are absolutely insane, it fundamentally cannot work at that price and not a single producer on earth wants it there. Yes it can go there during some kind of black swan historic shock doubled up with a price war but it *will not* stay there and every single oil speculator on earth knows that and will try to be in front of the inevitable move up. Even if you make money, you are being dumb. That was my thinking buying way long duration calls. There is a ton of supply, low demand, and continuing production, but even then there is a floor and it will go up again, my guess would be 33 by end of year but I dont have any money on it now.
|
|
#
?
Apr 3, 2020 15:15
|
|
|
crazypeltast52 posted:Anti-consumer collusion right here. Would anyone have standing to sue though? Cartels in oil have been a thing for decades.
|
|
#
?
Apr 3, 2020 15:15
|
|
|
The way to play "This is bonkers" is to buy longer expiry puts and wait to be proven right. But people were calling "this is bonkers" in 2015, so you might have to pay a bunch to roll your losers before they're right.
|
|
#
?
Apr 3, 2020 15:18
|
|
|
saintonan posted:Cartels in oil have been a thing for decades. Let me rephrase, US companies getting into the anti-consumer collusion racket, where they are within reach of US courts.
|
|
#
?
Apr 3, 2020 15:20
|
|
|
Dwight Eisenhower posted:The way to play "This is bonkers" is to buy longer expiry puts and wait to be proven right. Yeah this is my boat. I figured May was a good amount of time and it seems to be about right. Also if I am wrong that's fine, I own a lot of stocks at this point, buying in to chase the bottom.
|
|
#
?
Apr 3, 2020 15:23
|
|
|
crazypeltast52 posted:Let me rephrase, US companies getting into the anti-consumer collusion racket, where they are within reach of US courts. The fight is between Saudi and Russia. Russia says they won't do anything unless US producers take a specific action. That's not collusion, that's a hostage situation.
|
|
#
?
Apr 3, 2020 15:23
|
|
|
greasyhands posted:You guys trying to short oil in the 20s are absolutely insane, it fundamentally cannot work at that price and not a single producer on earth wants it there. Yes it can go there during some kind of black swan historic shock doubled up with a price war but it *will not* stay there and every single oil speculator on earth knows that and will try to be in front of the inevitable move up. Even if you make money, you are being dumb. You're right.. its gonna go lower!
|
|
#
?
Apr 3, 2020 15:26
|
|
|
ERI down below 10 this morning on no news. I bought puts on the wrong stock.
|
|
#
?
Apr 3, 2020 15:26
|
|
|
I'm a bit surprised at how BLV is currently (i.e. today) up more %-wise than VGLT and VCLT, which are essentially its components. Opinions? https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/BLV
|
|
#
?
Apr 3, 2020 15:27
|
|
|
saintonan posted:I think a lot of traders are seeing this as a one-off event - yes there are a lot of jobs lost, but the expectations right now are that most all those jobs will pick right up again once the all-clear is given, so it's just a matter of the government making everyone whole for the period of time that they're down. I think that's why these jobs numbers are being shrugged off. I think those expectations will eventually change, but all the cheerleading right now is giving people a false sense of optimism. Eventually reality will set in, but it may be a slow net descent rather than a sharp shock to the bottom. This, and also where else are they going to put their money that has any kind of return that isn’t some lovely junk bond? I had thought we’d have a dead cat bounce followed by another savage sell off, but now I agree that it’ll probably be a slower decline unless a prominent business goes belly up and spooks people - which I guess will happen eventually.
|
|
#
?
Apr 3, 2020 15:28
|
|
|
saintonan posted:Almost everything I hear is something like "yeah Q2 is gonna be bad but by Q4 we'll be back on track and shooting higher again". I think there has been and will be much more durable damage done, and it'll take a lot longer than that to return to what we think of now as a normal economy. I'm not sure how to play that, though, because it cuts strongly against what market sentiment is right now. I suspect once the end is in sight the market will really rocket. Not because it’s in any way reflective of the real economy but there’s been so much stimulus and with low interest rates every man and his dog will be piling in.
|
|
#
?
Apr 3, 2020 15:32
|
|
|
gay picnic defence posted:This, and also where else are they going to put their money that has any kind of return that isn’t some lovely junk bond? We're going to hit 0.1% confirmed casses in the next week, and 1% not far after that. You can count on Americans to be irrational: irrationally pessimistic until the threat becomes personal, and then irrationally pessimistic.
|
|
#
?
Apr 3, 2020 15:33
|
|
|
saintonan posted:ERI down below 10 this morning on no news. I bought puts on the wrong stock. Casino/Gaming names down as a group SGMS -15% nasty, looks like coming back to 4.00...
|
|
#
?
Apr 3, 2020 15:34
|
|
|
Back on the PPP thing, SBA’s application website apparently has a ton of questions you have to answer to apply that aren’t on the application. So even if our customers got us a signed application with supporting W3 information we apparently may not have enough to actually process applications through SBA.
|
|
#
?
Apr 3, 2020 15:36
|
|
|
saintonan posted:The fight is between Saudi and Russia. Russia says they won't do anything unless US producers take a specific action. That's not collusion, that's a hostage situation. Everyone wants oil prices to recover... by having the other group cut production.
|
|
#
?
Apr 3, 2020 15:37
|
|
|
saintonan posted:Almost everything I hear is something like "yeah Q2 is gonna be bad but by Q4 we'll be back on track and shooting higher again". I think there has been and will be much more durable damage done, and it'll take a lot longer than that to return to what we think of now as a normal economy. I'm not sure how to play that, though, because it cuts strongly against what market sentiment is right now. I'm imagining Average American Consumer, after getting rolled for the last six months, wondering how much spending they can actually do this Christmas.
|
|
#
?
Apr 3, 2020 15:48
|
|
|
SirPablo posted:I'm imagining Average American Consumer, after getting rolled for the last six months, wondering how much spending they can actually do this Christmas. Expect consumer debt to spike and sales to only slightly taper?
|
|
#
?
Apr 3, 2020 15:50
|
|
|
Let's assume utility energy usage declines 20% in states during a stay-at-home order. VPU, the vanguard utilities ETF (mostly electric power companies), is currently down 26% from February peak. When reports start coming in on March/April energy usage in lockdown states, does VPU go up or down? On one hand: 20% is a lot. On the other hand, it's already down 26%.
|
|
#
?
Apr 3, 2020 15:51
|
|
|
Wrapping up week 2 of gambling with options. Lost over half my money so far, but learned some important and valuable lessons. - don't mess with low volume options, too hard to get out of - don't mess with tech stocks that have no basis in reality - see tsla, z, uber. - define exits on both sides of the trade before you make the trade. I failed to take profits when available because I was waiting for just a little more, and failed to dump a bad option on the way down resulting in total loss.
|
|
#
?
Apr 3, 2020 15:57
|
|
|
jokes posted:Expect consumer debt to spike and sales to only slightly taper? Average American Consumer already has a lot of debt. https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/average-credit-card-debt-household/
|
|
#
?
Apr 3, 2020 15:58
|
|
|
skipdogg posted:Wrapping up week 2 of gambling with options. Lost over half my money so far, but learned some important and valuable lessons. the thing that I find interesting is you can find a million people write these lessons down after THEIR options trading dalliances which begs the question "well, what can you communicate to someone to get them the most effective ramp up", and that to trade small. If you make small trades while you're learning all these lessons, you won't win much. But you also won't lose much.
|
|
#
?
Apr 3, 2020 16:03
|
|
|
Yeah, I learn by doing, and experiencing. I've read a bunch and watch YT videos, but I'm loving hard headed and gotta learn the lesson myself it seems. I'm gambling with a relatively small amount of money, and I knew going in I was probably going to lose it all. For the price of a semester at community college though I'm getting a real world options education.
|
|
#
?
Apr 3, 2020 16:06
|
|
|
pmchem posted:Let's assume utility energy usage declines 20% in states during a stay-at-home order. VPU, the vanguard utilities ETF (mostly electric power companies), is currently down 26% from February peak. I heard that china was down about 20% load wise during their run. I dont think the US will quite get there.
|
|
#
?
Apr 3, 2020 16:07
|
|
|
Sepist posted:Well today was stupid. Sold my /ES puts at a loss thinking we weren't going to drop, we dropped. Bought calls near VWAP but paper hands sold them at a loss. Proceeded to break even by scalping /ES. I was sitting in a long position near the end of the day right before that giant green dildo which saved my day.
|
|
#
?
Apr 3, 2020 16:08
|
|
|
I just stick with strikes where the underlying is trading, avoid anything that expires within a month, and judge the risk reward based on where I think the underlying will trade vs. the implied breakeven for the contract. This has never got me in any trouble. Maybe I'm leaving some money on the table, open to constructive criticism.
|
|
#
?
Apr 3, 2020 16:11
|
|
|
Back into SPXS, lets gogogo
|
|
#
?
Apr 3, 2020 16:12
|
|
|
My KSS limit buy at $11.00 executed 
|
|
#
?
Apr 3, 2020 16:15
|
|
|
My MAR buy executed. Now figuring out what a good target on CHGG might be. There's a good chance that a lot of schools are still going to be online summer and possibly fall, and I'm assuming that'll be good for business.
|
|
#
?
Apr 3, 2020 16:20
|
|
|
Risky Bisquick posted:Back into SPXS, lets gogogo As am I, but I'm in a hurry to get out once I lock in some profits.
|
|
#
?
Apr 3, 2020 16:22
|
|
|
Sephora apparently laid off a bunch of workers even after telling them they'd stay on payroll. I imagine this will happen with companies >500 since they don't quality for the SBA grant.
|
|
#
?
Apr 3, 2020 16:29
|
|
|
Risky Bisquick posted:Back into SPXS, lets gogogo Freezer posted:As am I, but I'm in a hurry to get out once I lock in some profits. Out with a small grab, but it was a big buy so thanks for the pay cheque stock market
|
|
#
?
Apr 3, 2020 16:32
|
|
|
tumblr hype man posted:Back on the PPP thing, SBA’s application website apparently has a ton of questions you have to answer to apply that aren’t on the application. So even if our customers got us a signed application with supporting W3 information we apparently may not have enough to actually process applications through SBA. I got it changed lol. They removed the foreign ownership DQ statement on the form. Edit: assessment of SBA process so far from one of our corporate folks: “They don’t seem to understand how payroll works.” Lovely. Omerta fucked around with this message at 16:46 on Apr 3, 2020 |
|
#
?
Apr 3, 2020 16:33
|
|
|
Josh Lyman posted:How do you reconcile S/R levels in the futures vs cash? For example, SPX at 2500 is corresponding to 2490 in ES. Which is the real 2500 level? (I'm guessing SPX based on more ES volume at 2490) I don't look at SPX vs Futures. I just use S/R from futures when trading futures
|
|
#
?
Apr 3, 2020 16:35
|
|
|
VIX is finally under 50.
|
|
#
?
Apr 3, 2020 16:40
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/FerroTV/status/1246005789602525184?s=19
|
|
#
?
Apr 3, 2020 16:42
|
|
|
Exited my INDA put for a loss today. Volume when I sold = 2. I'm one of them. Just wanted out of it. I'll wait for the cash to settle and look for something else.
|
|
#
?
Apr 3, 2020 16:51
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 7, 2024 15:39 |
|
|
the truly disturbing part of this graph is 13/14
|
|
#
?
Apr 3, 2020 16:54
|
|
