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Pollyanna posted:Nothing I’ve seen with the stock market makes me trust it in the short term. Long term, maybe, though things have changed over the past few decades. But the next week or month? I agree. No way. But volatility is where the money is. Just don't be on the wrong side too often and don't hold too long. Easy, right?
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Apr 6, 2020 21:54
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Inconceivable.
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At this point I feel like spending this week exiting anything I was only going to hold short term (mostly my various option positions with expiries ranging from 1-3 months), just picking whatever time feels appropriate case by case as things swing up and down. Then let that cash sit for a week or so, divide it into maybe 5-6 segments and use them to space out "maybe THIS is the bottom" bets, probably starting in late april and finishing some time in june. I am finding myself going from "Yes, I should definitely buy a put on this stock" to "oh gently caress, no I think i definitely should buy a CALL on this same stock" and realized maybe things are too choppy for someone who has other things going on and can't possibly commit the attention needed to try timing this rollercoaster.
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Apr 6, 2020 21:57
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FreelanceSocialist posted:I agree. No way. But volatility is where the money is. Just don't be on the wrong side too often and don't hold too long. Easy, right? There is no fast money. There is slow money, and then there are dirty lies.
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Apr 6, 2020 21:58
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To adapt the car cliche: fast, honest, predictable - pick two.
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Apr 6, 2020 22:04
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I'm considering a strategy that seems safer than options but still may be dumb. The money I'm playing with is not retirement assets, but I wouldn't be completely fine with losing all of it either. What I'm doing is getting in SPY if it seems to be going up and riding the wave. Doubling down with SPXL if I feel confident. Or if it's a down day, I'll try to ride the wave with SPXS. For any trade I do I'll generally set a stop loss that's a few cents lower than my buy-in, so I have a small max loss. If my max loss gets triggered but I still feel confident, I can buy back in then set a new lower stop loss. Anyone think this is really dumb? BTW I didn't mention but I'd aim to never hold SPXL or SPXS overnight. SPY I will to try and catch a longer term trend. This worked today but I wanted to do a sanity check. My SPY buys will be a large percentage of my portfolio, 50+%, with the intention of bailing out if it seems like I can time a downward trend. Feels like I'm replicating calls / puts with much lower risk and reward. Inner Light fucked around with this message at 22:17 on Apr 6, 2020 |
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Apr 6, 2020 22:12
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https://twitter.com/arbitrage_andy/status/1247232819883106307?s=20 Me, dead.
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Apr 6, 2020 22:26
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It would be kind of amusing if we already saw bottom given that the fed seems hell bent on QEing us the gently caress outta here
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Apr 6, 2020 22:26
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Bored As gently caress posted:https://twitter.com/arbitrage_andy/status/1247232819883106307?s=20 Haha that is awesome. (If anyone has the issue like me in WinChrome where embedded videos will not play, go to the tweet itself)
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Apr 6, 2020 22:28
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Pollyanna posted:There is no fast money. There is slow money, and then there are dirty lies. There absolutely is fast money, and if you shorted just about any drat thing from the end of Feb until three weeks later you made it.
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Apr 6, 2020 22:31
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Dwight Eisenhower posted:I don't have the bankroll to run the play as you describe it, but I did go looking through daily charts for a couple of weeks; because even if I don't know what way the candle's gonna spike, I could still make a bunch off this if mean reversion held. How about in relation to VWAP instead of MA?
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Apr 6, 2020 22:32
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tfw when you are getting your rear end handed to you by owning failing retailers https://twitter.com/michaeljburry/status/1246796013441974272?s=20
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Apr 6, 2020 22:35
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That piece is tinfoil hatty as gently caress, even for ZeroHedge
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Apr 6, 2020 22:46
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Once the Germans start rolling out a partial reopening it will be much easier for Trump to urge the same here.
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Apr 6, 2020 22:52
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https://marketchameleon.com/Reports/StockOrderImbalanceReport this is a cool daily report about what leads to those 3:50pm candles. data is delayed though. nice to sort by buy/sell, etc.
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Apr 6, 2020 22:56
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LLCoolJD posted:Once the Germans start rolling out a partial reopening it will be much easier for Trump to urge the same here. I think at this point we're just numb to the amount of people dying, so the public won't much notice if we just go back to normal and let the chips fall where they may.
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Apr 6, 2020 22:58
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LLCoolJD posted:Once the Germans start rolling out a partial reopening it will be much easier for Trump to urge the same here. definitely a great way to guarantee that the virus makes a resurgence i approve
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Apr 6, 2020 23:03
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Bored As gently caress posted:https://twitter.com/arbitrage_andy/status/1247232819883106307?s=20 loving amazing
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Apr 6, 2020 23:09
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I don't know why anyone would think Trump would take cues from a country like Germany. He'll probably do whatever brazil or russia or the saudis do. Which, thinking of that... I wonder if north korean's isolation is sufficient that they entirely avoid this thing? Probably not, I understand there's a fair amount of people moving in and out across the china border even when it's closed, but... if any country was sufficiently locked down at the borders to entirely avoid it, it'd be DPRK, and they slammed the doors shut in January. Their official stance is zero cases, but of course the country's official stances are never credible. https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-04-04/north-koreas-official-coronavirus-count-zero-why-that-claim-is-hard-to-believe
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Apr 6, 2020 23:10
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Agronox posted:tfw when you are getting your rear end handed to you by owning failing retailers This is his actual account?
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Apr 6, 2020 23:12
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Cashed out of my MAR and ETSY positions today after both jumped about 20% in stock price. Will rebuy on MAR if it dips back below 60. In the meantime, picked up 7/17 SPY puts again because ::gestures to the world::
java fucked around with this message at 23:49 on Apr 6, 2020 |
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Apr 6, 2020 23:19
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hobbez posted:This is his actual account? Yes it is.
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Apr 6, 2020 23:23
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There is a huge gap in the implied vs. realized volatility, as wide as the exact peak of the bear market rally in November 2008, when the SPY rallied 17% before doing another 25% drawdown. Its time to stick to your guns guys. If you really think the government can throw enough money at this problem, god bless. Otherwise get your shorts on. fougera fucked around with this message at 23:36 on Apr 6, 2020 |
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Apr 6, 2020 23:31
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fougera posted:There is a huge gap in the implied vs. realized volatility, as wide as the very peak of the bear market rally in November 2008, where the markets rallied 17% before doing another 25% drawdown. Genuinely curious: what does "throwing enough money at the problem" entail? More bailouts? Sending more checks to people? Boosting unemployment benefits further? Allowing the Fed to buy equities?! If you were put in charge and given a mission and that mission was "prevent stocks from tanking again", what would you do?
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Apr 6, 2020 23:35
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hobbez posted:This is his actual account? It's brand new, has 59 tweets, and the only evidence I can find of it being real is this one news story on some weird Canadian Bloomberg affiliate. Who claim to have heard from him in an email… https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/big-short-s-michael-burry-joins-twitter-with-pleas-to-end-covid-19-lockdown-1.1417820 All the other tweets read as MAGA talking points on how the mainstream media is inflating the death count and Hydroxychloroquine is safe. None of that matches the impression I have of him from his past interviews with the financial press. He tends to be very cautious in what he says. This seems fake. e: He joined Twitter in 2011 but his first tweet is Mar 23? That's often evidence of a reused account. doingitwrong fucked around with this message at 23:39 on Apr 6, 2020 |
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Apr 6, 2020 23:36
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enraged_camel posted:Genuinely curious: what does "throwing enough money at the problem" entail? More bailouts? Sending more checks to people? Boosting unemployment benefits further? Allowing the Fed to buy equities?! As in socialize most if not all of the defaults that will occur. EDIT: This is probably an exaggeration. There's no way to know this answer, I just want the right trade. The biggest challenge for shorts right now is that the hurdle for what will take the markets down is pretty high. fougera fucked around with this message at 23:40 on Apr 6, 2020 |
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Apr 6, 2020 23:37
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fougera posted:There is a huge gap in the implied vs. realized volatility, as wide as the exact peak of the bear market rally in November 2008, when the SPY rallied 17% before doing another 25% drawdown. Post your opinion!  edit: whoops, ipad typo pmchem fucked around with this message at 00:01 on Apr 7, 2020 |
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Apr 6, 2020 23:45
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pmchem posted:Posy your opinion! ??? I've been bearish and short for months now. I just can't stand the "lmao this market is stupid" cry babies.
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Apr 6, 2020 23:51
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fougera posted:??? I've been bearish and short for months now. I just can't stand the "lmao this market is stupid" cry babies. Market is stupid, though!
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Apr 7, 2020 00:13
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jokes posted:Market is stupid, though! Of course it is, but we kind of already knew it. Remember Tariff Man's Trade War saga? I guess many people were expecting a return to sanity from previously insane valuations, and that's not happening. Moreover, it seems even more unhinged. But it is what it is, and we choose to engage with it.
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Apr 7, 2020 00:27
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fougera posted:??? I've been bearish and short for months now. I just can't stand the "lmao this market is stupid" cry babies. opinions can change so I just like to know where people stand, helps inform my own take through gathering sentiment
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Apr 7, 2020 00:28
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https://twitter.com/awealthofcs/status/1247190721662197760?s=19 Relevant. It's really easier to just strategically go long right now then timing the bear swings. At least with my pittance of gambling money.
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Apr 7, 2020 01:55
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i have a lone spy 270C right now and i kind of wish i sold today but i wasnt paying attention. oh well
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Apr 7, 2020 02:37
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also is there any way to make deposits to TD ameritrade not take 3 days to clear for options???
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Apr 7, 2020 02:37
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pram posted:also is there any way to make deposits to TD ameritrade not take 3 days to clear for options??? I expect it takes x days to clear regardless of the intent of the retail investor with the funds?
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Apr 7, 2020 02:43
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you can trade right away on robinhood
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Apr 7, 2020 02:44
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pram posted:also is there any way to make deposits to TD ameritrade not take 3 days to clear for options??? Wire transfer
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Apr 7, 2020 02:53
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pram posted:you can trade right away on robinhood Not quite -- up to $1k is available right away but the rest is a long window, for me it took 6 trading days until my transfer cleared.
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Apr 7, 2020 03:04
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Inner Light posted:Not quite -- up to $1k is available right away but the rest is a long window, for me it took 6 trading days until my transfer cleared. If you have Gold it increases the instant availability amount
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Apr 7, 2020 03:11
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pram posted:also is there any way to make deposits to TD ameritrade not take 3 days to clear for options??? VelociBacon posted:I expect it takes x days to clear regardless of the intent of the retail investor with the funds? Incorrect. E*Trade has a feature that let's you instantly use electronic transfer funds as long as its under 100% of your current accoutn value. ie if you have $30,000 account, and you do a quick instant-transfer of $30,000 you get to use it all immediately which is epic. conversly, if you have a $30,000 account, and you dot a quick instant-transfer of $50,000, you only get to use $30,000 immediately (100% of current account), and then the remai9nder, $20,000 will have the 3-day wait period its suuuuuper useful and pretty drat awesome. I traded at Scwhwab for years and it was always real annoying. Been @ Etrade since I made the switch years ago and its sweet. ALSO on Etrade if you get hit with PDT status it only lasts for 90 days, whereas Schwab it literally lasts for life based on your SSN lol jfc
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Apr 7, 2020 03:13
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Etrade also gives you much better filles (compared to Schwab). This was v. apparent to me as I was scalping for a few years where you really notice these things... it is STILL blatant that Etrade gives much, muuuuch better fills than scwhwab. Maybe Shwab just doesn't give a poo poo I dunno thats what it feels like now after seeing grass on the other side. lastly, they all free comms now so there's no reason to be usign some clown poo poo like RH imo lmao but ofc due ya own DD!!!
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Apr 7, 2020 03:16
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