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Charun posted:yeh you're right, death rate will probs only be like 10% which would mean only like 25mil US deaths caused by the government's inaction. No, CFR is likely to land somewhere between 1 - 1.75%. This is bad enough without needing to breathlessly hyperbolize.
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Apr 9, 2020 17:03
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Cao Ni Ma posted:We aren't even at peak till at least Sunday and god knows if we'll re-surge again because complacency Actually we don't have to guess: we will re-surge almost immediately (like, within a couple of weeks) if we lift restrictions any time in the next 30-60 days. There's no question. If community spread is still occurring, then cases will surge 1-2 weeks after we come off of lockdown.
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Apr 9, 2020 17:03
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The disease is real bad and real dangerous. Continuing reminder you don't need to overstate what it is in order for that to continue to be the case.
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Apr 9, 2020 17:03
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Paradoxish posted:Actually we don't have to guess: we will re-surge almost immediately (like, within a couple of weeks) if we lift restrictions any time in the next 30-60 days. There's no question. If community spread is still occurring, then cases will surge 1-2 weeks after we come off of lockdown. When this happens they'll talk about how no one could have possibly foreseen it happening.
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Apr 9, 2020 17:04
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Admiral Ray posted:why haven't you code jockeys made an app that tells us the optimal covid19 infection rate yet? optimize my outbreak! this is literally what the "do nothing" models are lmao u idiot
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Apr 9, 2020 17:04
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WarEternal posted:It's funny how people don't have basic 5th grade word problem solving skills. People are acting like the peak is the end of it all, when it's likey to be at least as long as it was to get there. They were predicting May 1 to be the peak here in Ohio, which would mean without it being more of a plateau or a slow slide down, it would be October, not May 2.
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Apr 9, 2020 17:05
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Morning thread! So we're hosed right.
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Apr 9, 2020 17:05
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Mummy Xzibit posted:Morning thread! We always were, regardless of the roni
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Apr 9, 2020 17:05
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Paradoxish posted:Actually we don't have to guess: we will re-surge almost immediately (like, within a couple of weeks) if we lift restrictions any time in the next 30-60 days. There's no question. If community spread is still occurring, then cases will surge 1-2 weeks after we come off of lockdown. 30-60 days probably isn't enough. There's delayed hot spots flaring up all over the country and any easing of restrictions is going to let those hotspots travel back to places that have successfully shut down and contained the virus. We will likely be in a constant state of pandemic for the rest of the year.
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Apr 9, 2020 17:05
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Paradoxish posted:Actually we don't have to guess: we will re-surge almost immediately (like, within a couple of weeks) if we lift restrictions any time in the next 30-60 days. There's no question. If community spread is still occurring, then cases will surge 1-2 weeks after we come off of lockdown.
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Apr 9, 2020 17:06
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idgi
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Apr 9, 2020 17:06
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What happens when all the police start wearing masks and we are literally inside the Watchmen TV show?
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Apr 9, 2020 17:07
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Dolphin posted:isn't the idea to allow controlled resurgence with repeated flat curves until herd immunity is established? i thought everyone eventually getting this is inevitable kind of. The goal I think is to slowly open back up again with serological testing + a more accurate and quicker diagnostic + hopefully some sort of meaningful therapeutic that allows us to both aggressively treat but also contain and track any outbreaks. I have no idea when that's feasible, but its probably not two months.
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Apr 9, 2020 17:08
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ICU admissions when they are full should go down and become equal to deaths plus discharges.
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Apr 9, 2020 17:09
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this makes me want to watch v for vendetta again and then i remember that v for vendetta was kind of "meh"
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Apr 9, 2020 17:09
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thankfully that show ended after 1 season. if we could be so lucky.
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Apr 9, 2020 17:09
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I'm sure there's a completely not horrifying reason why there's 15 med evac helicopters in the gulf of Mexico south of New Orleans. Simultaneously. https://www.flightradar24.com/28.9,-91.82/7
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Apr 9, 2020 17:09
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Paradoxish posted:Actually we don't have to guess: we will re-surge almost immediately (like, within a couple of weeks) if we lift restrictions any time in the next 30-60 days. There's no question. If community spread is still occurring, then cases will surge 1-2 weeks after we come off of lockdown. Can't wait for the CEO to open up the office again as soon as torpm says its ok on May 1st. It's gonna be freaking awesome. SECOND WAVE BABY WOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
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Apr 9, 2020 17:10
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The Alpha Centauri posted:this makes me want to watch v for vendetta again and then i remember that v for vendetta was kind of "meh" I remember liking it originally then hating everything about its cultural footprint - does it merit a rewatch? cspam weigh in
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Apr 9, 2020 17:11
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Dolphin posted:isn't the idea to allow controlled resurgence with repeated flat curves until herd immunity is established? i thought everyone eventually getting this is inevitable You aren't controlling it if you reopen while there's still widespread community transmission and no infrastructure for testing or restrictions (ie, body temperature monitoring). Coming off of lockdown too early without having anything in place to control the spread would give us a week or two reprieve at best, and we'd probably be in for an even longer shutdown period after that. We're going to get second waves because we're not catching every case, but that doesn't mean we can come off of lockdown when we're still seeing hundreds or thousands of new cases per day. That's just loving insane.
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Apr 9, 2020 17:11
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Pussy Quipped posted:What happens when all the police start wearing masks and we are literally inside the Watchmen TV show?
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Apr 9, 2020 17:12
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Schnorkles posted:30-60 days probably isn't enough. There's delayed hot spots flaring up all over the country and any easing of restrictions is going to let those hotspots travel back to places that have successfully shut down and contained the virus. Does that take into account the discrepancy between LV and RV? Was that a landline poll?
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Apr 9, 2020 17:12
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Schnorkles posted:We have no idea the breadth or actual hospitalization rate of the disease. we have a pretty good idea of hospitalization rate from countries that actually test, and have controlled the virus. this is just an estimate based on herd immunity
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Apr 9, 2020 17:12
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Dolphin posted:isn't the idea to allow controlled resurgence with repeated flat curves until herd immunity is established? i thought everyone eventually getting this is inevitable We could also control spread until a vaccine is available.
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Apr 9, 2020 17:12
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reminder that the problem of a lack of a unified national shelter in place policy means that all the hotspots are happening at different time intervals. If NY clears up and starts to reopen in a month when things in Des Moines start to flare up, its going to end up right back where it is. We have no unified policy, so we can't actually control the virus anywhere.
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Apr 9, 2020 17:12
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The Alpha Centauri posted:this makes me want to watch v for vendetta again and then i remember that v for vendetta was kind of "meh" read the book
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Apr 9, 2020 17:12
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Jon Irenicus posted:I remember liking it originally then hating everything about its cultural footprint - does it merit a rewatch? read the graphic novel imo or watch the movie it has a plague, punditry, authoritarian government, and hints of an american civil war you do you, op. e;fb
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Apr 9, 2020 17:14
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Jonny 290 posted:malls are uniquely lovely for any purpose other than being a mall. people have investigated turning deadmalls into housing etc. turns out two bathrooms for every 20 units and no cooking facilities means theyre uninhabitable. they are worthless un-repurposeable properties, the perfect monument to capitalism Seems like a nursing floor ^
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Apr 9, 2020 17:14
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Schnorkles posted:kind of. The goal I think is to slowly open back up again with serological testing + a more accurate and quicker diagnostic + hopefully some sort of meaningful therapeutic that allows us to both aggressively treat but also contain and track any outbreaks.  this is the USA
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Apr 9, 2020 17:14
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How has South Korea kept a clamp on things so successfully? You'd think the whole track 'n' trace thing would only work for so long if there's such a huge amount of asymptomatic spread and they're not on lockdown. Even Singapore's seemingly losing control of it
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Apr 9, 2020 17:14
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Cabbages and Kings posted:On or about 2/17, in the NE USA, my wife and I contracted an illness. On 2/19 she and our child went out of town, and on 2/22, the day before she got home, all three of us began experiencing symptoms of what seemed like, and may have been, influenza: moderate fever, body aches, some amount of coughing. This progressed over 5-7 days, and then we had 1-2 days of feeling better, before experiencing a recurrance of fever combined with much more severe respiratory symptoms, which included a lot more coughing and hacking up thick poo poo than I personally have experienced in ~20+ years. By the third or fourth day of this, I had a "crinkling" sound coming from one of my lungs. Yeah this is almost exactly what happened to my wife and I she got sick 5 days after me but less severe (she's way healthier than me), I had a student who sits right in front of my desk come back sickthen she was out for two weeks after her dad travelled in Europe and was also sick, then a few days later I got sick. My wife found a text I dont even remember typing since I was so sick she asked what we should make for dinner and I said I don't even care I haven't been able to taste for days. My lungs are still kind of lung buttery and not great. ER wanted to test me for it on the last day of Februrary but had no tests and I only had bad bronchitis not pneumonia.
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Apr 9, 2020 17:15
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Schnorkles posted:reminder that the problem of a lack of a unified national shelter in place policy means that all the hotspots are happening at different time intervals. Sure was strange seeing all those armored vehicles heading towards CA's eastern border!
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Apr 9, 2020 17:15
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Schnorkles posted:30-60 days probably isn't enough. There's delayed hot spots flaring up all over the country and any easing of restrictions is going to let those hotspots travel back to places that have successfully shut down and contained the virus. My current best case scenario prediction is the virus turns out to be seasonal, fades in the summer then comes back with vengeance in the fall after everythings demobilized and is far worse than it is now.
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Apr 9, 2020 17:15
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Charun posted:we have a pretty good idea of hospitalization rate from countries that actually test, and have controlled the virus. the problem is that hospitalization is not just as simple as "virus causes this many people to go to hospital" the virus hits different groups very differently. The death and hospitalization rate, for instance, in the US among people under the age of 40 is seemingly significantly higher than what it is in Europe. The data doesn't line up cleanly, and when we're dealing with acute hospital bed shortages, very slight differences in how the rates work out lead to massive substantive changes.
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Apr 9, 2020 17:15
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Schnorkles posted:reminder that the problem of a lack of a unified national shelter in place policy means that all the hotspots are happening at different time intervals. maybe but they can just ship people to whichever exurb isn't overwhelmed at the moment so it never overwhelms total capacity. this thing's scary until we figure out just how big it is (we figured that out last week), then it just becomes a challenge. it's priced in baby. lets get back to wrok.
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Apr 9, 2020 17:15
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PerniciousKnid posted:We could also control spread until a vaccine is available. That assumes that we can create a vaccine, I understand there wasn't any luck in creating one for SARS/MERS
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Apr 9, 2020 17:15
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HAMAS HATE BOAT posted:I'm sure there's a completely not horrifying reason why there's 15 med evac helicopters in the gulf of Mexico south of New Orleans. Simultaneously. Oil platform?
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Apr 9, 2020 17:16
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i love the cuomo sign off ice burns
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Apr 9, 2020 17:16
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The Alpha Centauri posted:this makes me want to watch v for vendetta again and then i remember that v for vendetta was kind of "meh" hey at least we got 2 decades of people wearing guy fawkes masks out of it
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Apr 9, 2020 17:17
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Iron Crowned posted:That assumes that we can create a vaccine, I understand there wasn't any luck in creating one for SARS/MERS Eh, there was plenty of promising stuff that fizzled out because no one wanted to spend hundreds of millions of dollars trying to run a stage 3 clinical trial for it
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Apr 9, 2020 17:17
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