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DOCTOR ZIMBARDO posted:maybe but they can just ship people to whichever exurb isn't overwhelmed at the moment so it never overwhelms total capacity. this thing's scary until we figure out just how big it is (we figured that out last week), then it just becomes a challenge. it's priced in baby. lets get back to wrok. This assumes a level of competence and logistic management that, uh, well if you have the faith that the system can handle it lets do it baby back to work
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Apr 9, 2020 17:18
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Jon Irenicus posted:I remember liking it originally then hating everything about its cultural footprint - does it merit a rewatch? the comic is way better
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Apr 9, 2020 17:18
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Schnorkles posted:reminder that the problem of a lack of a unified national shelter in place policy means that all the hotspots are happening at different time intervals. Watch it burn through the interior but 'only' killing like 1500 people a day, for weeks on end, while they all argue the ~2300 peak is past and people are overreacting.
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Apr 9, 2020 17:18
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Iron Crowned posted:People are acting like the peak is the end of it all, when it's likey to be at least as long as it was to get there. They were predicting May 1 to be the peak here in Ohio, which would mean without it being more of a plateau or a slow slide down, it would be October, not May 2. Yup! But people hear 'peak' and they think it means the number can only go down from there and we can open back up again. Because they don't have the most basic level of understanding.
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Apr 9, 2020 17:19
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HAMAS HATE BOAT posted:I'm sure there's a completely not horrifying reason why there's 15 med evac helicopters in the gulf of Mexico south of New Orleans. Simultaneously. One of the Chevron USA rigs? edit: Maybe a Talos Energy, since there’s a few in the general area Victor Surge has issued a correction as of 17:24 on Apr 9, 2020 |
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Apr 9, 2020 17:20
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Spergin Morlock posted:hey at least we got 2 decades of people wearing guy fawkes masks out of it and britgoons got to laugh at us because they burn that mofo up every year
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Apr 9, 2020 17:21
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Iron Crowned posted:That assumes that we can create a vaccine, I understand there wasn't any luck in creating one for SARS/MERS So if there’s no vaccine or natural immunization that develops in people, what happens then? Quarantine forever? Super-lockdown for like a month to completely kill it? Would some unscrupulous actor be able to keep the virus alive in a petri dish or some such to unleash later?
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Apr 9, 2020 17:22
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univbee posted:So if there’s no vaccine or natural immunization that develops in people, what happens then? Quarantine forever? Super-lockdown for like a month to completely kill it? Would some unscrupulous actor be able to keep the virus alive in a petri dish or some such to unleash later? yep the world is gonna end time to head for the hills
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Apr 9, 2020 17:23
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Wait, other hospitals are playing Here Comes the Sun over their PAs every time a COVID patient leaves?
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Apr 9, 2020 17:23
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Victor Surge posted:One of the Chevron USA rigs? That or another plague ship.
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Apr 9, 2020 17:23
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Schnorkles posted:We have no idea the breadth or actual hospitalization rate of the disease. yeah if the actual death rate is like .6% then we have ~2.5 million cases right now. definitely don't have more than like 10 million cases tho
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Apr 9, 2020 17:24
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Iron Crowned posted:That assumes that we can create a vaccine, I understand there wasn't any luck in creating one for SARS/MERS IIRC wasn't it relatively far along and then funding dried up cuz "welp we beat it" and just limped along afterwards?
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Apr 9, 2020 17:24
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Oil! posted:ICU admissions when they are full should go down and become equal to deaths plus discharges. Direct quote from the other day: “We’re out of ICU beds for anyone not intubated. There is no more escalation of care. The only escalation is Heaven.”
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Apr 9, 2020 17:25
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us number of deaths at over 1000 early in the day either the reporting schedule has changed or today is going to be a 2500 deaths day
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Apr 9, 2020 17:25
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GrOcErY StOrEs ArE hIrInG!!!!!!
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Apr 9, 2020 17:25
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univbee posted:So if there’s no vaccine or natural immunization that develops in people, what happens then? Quarantine forever? Super-lockdown for like a month to completely kill it? Would some unscrupulous actor be able to keep the virus alive in a petri dish or some such to unleash later? This is why I think a vaccine will be found. The whole planet will be pouring money into it. Well, except the US government probably.
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Apr 9, 2020 17:25
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Schnorkles posted:yep the world is gonna end time to head for the hills Can’t, the hills are infected too.
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Apr 9, 2020 17:26
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univbee posted:So if there’s no vaccine or natural immunization that develops in people, what happens then? Quarantine forever? Super-lockdown for like a month to completely kill it? Would some unscrupulous actor be able to keep the virus alive in a petri dish or some such to unleash later? lol we just let it reap 2-20% of the worlds population every flu season until only naturally immune people are left, and hope it doesn't mutate in the meantime
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Apr 9, 2020 17:26
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Azathoth posted:That or another plague ship. I really think it’s an Atlantic Rim situation. Good luck New Orleans!
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Apr 9, 2020 17:26
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univbee posted:Not that I think it would budge the needle much, but does that 1-in-77 only include vehicular accident-type causes of death, and not things like "you were a passenger in a parked car and had a heart attack/stroke/overdose/cooked yourself like that goon?" This is crash-related only and actually includes pedestrians who are killed by car crashes but I didn't feel like adding the caveat
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Apr 9, 2020 17:26
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Schnorkles posted:No, CFR is likely to land somewhere between 1 - 1.75%. This is bad enough without needing to breathlessly hyperbolize. if I can't breathlessly hyperbolize about american deaths here, then where? also, if I wanted to hyperbolize, I'd include that mild cases don't seem to give anti-body resistance - then the numbers get very big but don't worry, just have a vote about in 7 months time about it
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Apr 9, 2020 17:26
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Spergin Morlock posted:lol we just let it reap 2-20% of the worlds population every flu season until only naturally immune people are left, and hope it doesn't mutate in the meantime Coronareaped again.
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Apr 9, 2020 17:27
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PerniciousKnid posted:This is why I think a vaccine will be found. The whole planet will be pouring money into it. Well, except the US government probably. we are willing to throw money at it, but only if it cures the us exclusively because trump is literally a monster
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Apr 9, 2020 17:27
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Siljmonster posted:GrOcErY StOrEs ArE hIrInG!!!!!! lol $13.25.
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Apr 9, 2020 17:27
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MadJackal posted:Wait, other hospitals are playing Here Comes the Sun over their PAs every time a COVID patient leaves? Playing it upon admission was deemed too tasteless.
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Apr 9, 2020 17:28
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its not impossible that the us has a day with more deaths than china had during the entire outbreak (the official number of 3335)
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Apr 9, 2020 17:28
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Welp https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1248281818366988300?s=19
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Apr 9, 2020 17:28
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HugeGrossBurrito posted:Yeah this is almost exactly what happened to my wife and I she got sick 5 days after me but less severe (she's way healthier than me), I had a student who sits right in front of my desk come back sickthen she was out for two weeks after her dad travelled in Europe and was also sick, then a few days later I got sick. My wife found a text I dont even remember typing since I was so sick she asked what we should make for dinner and I said I don't even care I haven't been able to taste for days. My lungs are still kind of lung buttery and not great. ER wanted to test me for it on the last day of Februrary but had no tests and I only had bad bronchitis not pneumonia. One of my lungs still feels a little hosed up in one spot, and during the sickness I went from "regular, heavy intake of (fairly pure) cannabis oil vapor" to "eat weed only", and am still at "vape as little as I can loving stand, and feel sorta dumb about it", a month post. However, I did do 75% of my maple sugaring stuff for the season immediately post all this, which meant a lot of hoofing up and down an icey hill, carrying gear, pulling hoses and stuff through snow, moving firewood around and generally being nearly as active as I ever am, and I was not notably impaired. These activities probably, on average, take me to ~30-60% of my exertion limit, so it's not really testing trying to put the needle in the red, but I have read some accounts of people being winded doing stuff more mild. So, if I had C-19, it hosed me up less than it's hosed up some other noncritical cases, and I am thankful for that. I do wish I could know if that's what we had, even if it's not very useful or actionable information. If my lung still feels weird when things are moderately safe again I guess I can see about getting some kind of scan, but that would be dependent on either some doctor feeling an urgent need, or being able to get some data from a simple X-Ray or noncontrast MRI; I'm not willing to have more C/Ts or gadolinium in my life unless there's a definite urgency to it Cabbages and VHS has issued a correction as of 17:31 on Apr 9, 2020 |
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Apr 9, 2020 17:28
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lol it's gonna turn out that it hides in ur nerves like a hosed up airborne version of herpes
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Apr 9, 2020 17:29
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MadJackal posted:Direct quote from the other day: “We’re out of ICU beds for anyone not intubated. There is no more escalation of care. The only escalation is Heaven.” I mean you still escalate care by intubating people, you just have people that are intubated that are on the floor (1 nurse for 4+ patients) or intermediate level unit (1 nurse for 3-4 patients) which is bonkers. ICU level care is just a reflection of nursing staff and how many patients any given nurse carries.
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Apr 9, 2020 17:29
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So if we use every intervention under the sun we can get R0 to like 0.9. if we go back to business as usual R0 shoots up to 5. Basically every day not on lockdown requires two weeks of lockdown to undo. lol.
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Apr 9, 2020 17:29
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Mummy Xzibit posted:Sure was strange seeing all those armored vehicles heading towards CA's eastern border! I passed the national guard convoys a few weeks ago, its inevitable
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Apr 9, 2020 17:30
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Mummy Xzibit posted:Sure was strange seeing all those armored vehicles heading towards CA's eastern border! Um, excuse me?
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Apr 9, 2020 17:31
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man this week sucks
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Apr 9, 2020 17:31
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https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/1248275204905861120
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Apr 9, 2020 17:32
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Mummy Xzibit posted:Sure was strange seeing all those armored vehicles heading towards CA's eastern border! nevada and arizona will finally pay for their crimes
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Apr 9, 2020 17:32
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*takes a big sip from his mug* wife: what kind of tea is that? me: pho broth, hoisin, sriracha, garlic and ginger wife: wtf *takes a big sip from his mug*
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Apr 9, 2020 17:33
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Notorious R.I.M. posted:So if we use every intervention under the sun we can get R0 to like 0.9. if we go back to business as usual R0 shoots up to 5. Basically every day not on lockdown requires two weeks of lockdown to undo. lol. I'm like....I don't know, just reading the thread the last few days, it genuinely seems like there is simply no reasonable level of safety coming in the next year. Is this inaccurate??
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Apr 9, 2020 17:33
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Notorious R.I.M. posted:So if we use every intervention under the sun we can get R0 to like 0.9. if we go back to business as usual R0 shoots up to 5. Basically every day not on lockdown requires two weeks of lockdown to undo. lol. R0 of 0.9 means that if we have 10,000 active cases, we would need to go through about 75 cycles of infection in order to reduce that to 0. If you can get it down to 0.1, that would be about 5 cycles. Even 0.5, which is pretty drat good considering this thing is so infectious, would require 14 cycles before you have a chance that it goes to 0.
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Apr 9, 2020 17:34
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Lote posted:R0 of 0.9 means that if we have 10,000 active cases, we would need to go through about 75 cycles of infection in order to reduce that to 0. If you can get it down to 0.1, that would be about 5 cycles. Even 0.5, which is pretty drat good considering this thing is so infectious, would require 14 cycles before you have a chance that it goes to 0. when you have 15 and it goes to 0 very quickly, that's a pretty good job we've done
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Apr 9, 2020 17:35
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